Talking-up Scotland

The SNP Government has a proud record on human rights and the party has consistently opposed UK militaristic foreign policy from the Iraq War to the bombing of Libya and Syria. It has also fought against the Bedroom Tax and for the rights of migrants. In sharp contrast the Tory administration and its Blairite Labour predecessor have been complicit in war crimes in these same countries and in Afghanistan. Currently, the UK sells weapons and provides personnel to assist in the bombing of civilian populations in Yemen. At home, the current UK government demonises migrants and has recruited a private agency to carry out ‘fit-for-work’ assessments leading to deaths by suicide of the disabled. I could go on.

Yet, the UK Government has denied Scottish Ministers the opportunity to attend the UN review on 4 May where they could have put their measures under UN scrutiny and received recommendations for further improvement.

Equalities Secretary Angela Constance has said:

‘The actions we are taking to ensure human rights are respected and protected reflect a national vision – shared by government, civil society partners and the Scottish people – of a country where everyone is able to live with dignity…..However, the direction the UK Government has been taking is fundamentally incompatible with that view. While UK Ministers have called into question protections under the European Convention on Human Rights and European Law, we are working to ensure everyone in Scottish society can enjoy their rights in full.’

Scotland has already implemented a number of UN recommendations on human rights including:

• Tackling poverty through the Fairer Scotland Action Planand enshrining in law the commitment to eradicate child poverty
• Launching the Equally Safestrategy to prevent and eradicate violence against women and girls
• Committing to put dignity, respect and human rights at the heart of the way new social security powers are implemented in Scotland
• Working directly with disabled people to develop Scotland’s delivery plan for the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities
• Practical action to address the inequalities that women continue to experience in the workplace
• Launching Scotland’s Race Equality Framework, to take forward both international and domestic commitments on race equality
• Investing in the Scottish Attainment Challenge to raise educational attainment for Scotland’s most disadvantaged children

 I don’t know who, if anyone, will attend for the UK but whoever it is you can be sure they voted to bomb Libya and Syria and that they support Bedroom Tax 1.0 and 2.0.

https://news.gov.scot/news/standing-up-for-human-rights

http://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/coroners-ground-breaking-verdict-suicide-was-triggered-by-fit-for-work-test/

Reported yesterday in Energy Voice, was an announcement that will make new oil and gas exploration more likely to be successful and further strengthen, in particular, Scotland’s energy industry over the post-independence period surely coming soon now. We don’t want the new discoveries named Lyme Regis or Buckingham.

Covering the Central North Sea, the Irish Sea and the Orcadian Basin, these new datasets have generated 25 new reports for the industry to take advantage of. See image above.

According to the report, ‘The analysis was based on new interpretations of well data, 125,000 line kilometres of seismic interpretation and basin modelling.’ That sounds convincing if not too understandable to me.

Quite a lot of the area is in English and Irish waters so good luck to them too. It will be interesting to see if the Clyde Estuary data is followed up on before we can get the nuclear subs out of that area and into the presumably oil-free Devonport.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/136818/treasure-trove-new-ukcs-exploration-data-released/

(c) THINKSTOCK

See this from the FT on March 30^th:

‘Chinese oil major PetroChina plans to raise capital investment to RMB191.3bn ($28bn) in response to recovering oil prices, up from RMB172.4bn last year, in the latest sign of recovery for the oil sector.’

This kind of confidence is driven by predictions of a major recovery in oil production which, incidentally, will add to the Scottish oil industry recovery I’ve written about numerous times recently. See:

‘Oil Market Rebalancing, Demand Expected to Rise’ One reason for Yes next time.

Yesterday, ‘data and analytics firm’, McKinsey predicted that oil prices will rebalance at $60 to $70 per barrel. This is well above the $50 per barrel current minimum for viability which itself may be higher than that required for new, smaller, technologically smarter companies and could see cash flowing into the UK Treasury again if we’re not quick to get out of the UK. See this from the Harvard Business Review in March 2016:

‘Nobody really knows what oil prices will be in the future, but we think countries and companies should prepare for oil to hover around $50 per barrel for the foreseeable future. Historically this wouldn’t be shocking at all. In fact, today’s oil prices that we think of as low are actually near the real average price of a barrel of oil for the last 150 years: $35 (2014 US dollar reference year).’

The FT finishes with these further confident comments:

‘The report predicts the level of decline in legacy production from the Bakken [North Dakota USA] and Eagle Ford fields [South Texas] will reduce oil oversupply……New production sources are expected to become more economic than 2014 levels, due to cost-cutting strategies which were introduced during the downturn.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/136941/oil-re-balance-60-70-per-barrel-mckinsey-says/

https://www.ft.com/content/f97e7735-284e-354b-81e7-fec4b2264545

https://hbr.org/2016/03/what-low-oil-prices-really-mean

(c) telegraph.co.uk

From a report in Scottish Business News, yesterday, we see fairly significant differences in the extent to which Scottish and rUK businesses are showing signs of difficulty.

What’s known as Red Flag Data, for rUK, showed that signs of business distress were up 17% since the last quarter of 2016 and up 7% year on year. In sharp contrast signs of business distress in Scotland were down 8% on the last quarter of 2016 and down 28% year on year.

These are quite marked differences and suggest, along with the recent decline in unemployment taking it below the level for England, signs of growing strength in the Scottish economy.

Perhaps SNP Government initiatives such as the £500m package of financial support for private sector business investment announced in September 2016 will have helped?

http://www.scottishfinancialnews.com/12666/number-of-scottish-business-facing-critical-problems-falling-as-uk-averages-rise/

https://news.gov.scot/news/500m-new-support-for-businesses

‘In total, over the past four decades, corporate taxes from the UKCS have contributed over £300bn to the UK Treasury (in today’s money).’

The above is from: ‘Financial Scrutiny Unit Briefing Scottish North Sea oil and gas industry’. Boy do they owe us! Keeping the above in mind, the SNP government is asking the UK government to make changes to the tax regime for North Sea Oil with a view to nurturing the Third Wave Resurgence already visible. See:

North Sea oil and gas is on the crest of a ‘Third Wave’ and the SNP Government is already supporting plans for it

The UK government seems to have the massive funds required to protect the banks despite their culpability in nearly destroying the UK economy. It has probably done a deal to protect Nissan’s care sales to Europe too. Surely it can find ways of protecting the oil and gas industry for additional costs post-Brexit?

http://www.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S4/SB_14-28.pdf

(c) offshoreenergytoday.com

The headline in Energy Voice yesterday was: ‘UK gas output rises in 2016 as Laggan-Tormore delivers boost, report says’ but I’m not having that. Production from this giant field west of Shetland has been largely responsible for a 3.6% increase in UK output. The supplies come 90 miles into a Shetland plant from the field. Total won an award for the project as the most innovate in the world in 2015 and at least they had the decency to give an appropriate name. Hurricane Energy seems to think Lancaster and Halifax are suitable names for Shetland fields! What next: ‘Parson’s End?’

The demand for gas, mainly for electricity generation across the UK was significantly up in 2016 – 12.6%. Domestic use was only up 5.1%. We clearly have strong market opportunity in England after independence given the UK Government’s well-known anxiety about reliance on Russian supplies on security grounds. I hear the story about Berwick still being at war with Russia is not true but that Putin guy is no respecter of such details. Cross him and the taps are turned off.

Due to the above increases in demand, UK Gas exports were 23% lower than the previous year. UK Imports of gas were 5.9% up, most of it coming from Norway. After independence, Scottish gas exports will, of course, be enormous and highly valuable. The infrastructure will already be in place but this time they’ll be paying for it. We might of course just keep it all for ourselves and so our imports will be zero.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/136714/uk-gas-output-rises-2016-laggan-tormore-delivers-boost-report-says/

(c) Scotrenewables

This is from Energy Voice on the 14 April 2017 and adds yet another good news story about Scotland’s very optimistic energy future post-independence. The above device has hit peak power and can heat around 1 000 homes from one device only 10ft wide and 200ft long. It also employs 25 people locally and in Edinburgh. It was partly funded by the Scottish Government’s Renewable Energy Investment Fund.

The company, Scotrenewables, which is Orkney-based, operating the Belfast-built device, claim it is ‘resetting the bar’ on costs. By this they mean lowering the bar in completing the work quickly and at low cost. Here’s a reminder of the advantages of tidal power from TheNextGalaxy:

1. A Very Predictable Energy Source: Ever since the beginning of time itself, the oceans have had tides. Massive amounts of water move in extremely predictable patterns. This makes it very easy to harness the energy that these tides can generate, because we can predict their movements as far as years ahead.
2. An Inexhaustible Source of Energy: There will be no shortage of tides anytime soon. They are controlled by the gravitational pull between the earth, sun, and moon. This means that as long as the earth is being orbited by the moon, the tides will continue to be there producing energy.
3. Very Low Costs To Operate: Once the initial constructions costs are done, there are very few additional costs to keep the tidal energy plant up and running. Little maintenance is required, and minimal personnel as well.
4. Effective Even at Low Speeds: Since water is much denser than air, the amount of movement needed to generate power is very low. It has been proven that tidal energy can still be harnessed even if the water is only moving at 3 feet per second.
5. Can Last Forever: Okay, maybe not literally forever, but a very long time! Tidal energy plants are very simple, and made of durable and simple materials that can withstand the time very well.
6. Completely Green: There are no carbon emissions from tidal energy plants, making it an energy source that does not negatively affect the global environment.

Also, see this for the other numerous reasons to be cheerful about Scottish energy:

Energy, energy, energy: Scotland’s renewables projects, oil and gas discoveries just keep on coming

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/136606/scotrenewabless-giant-tidal-turbine-hits-peak-power-off-orkney/

http://thenextgalaxy.com/the-advantages-and-disadvantages-of-tidal-energy-power/

The poll carried out in March 2017, by the respected ORB International for the Daily Telegraph had 2 000 respondents of whom 175 were based in Scotland. Now, I’ve criticised the validity of polls before on the basis of typical sample sizes (1 000) but these are common and are defended vigorously by people like Professor Curtice as long as the sample construction is scientifically done to produce something representative of the population as a whole. With a UK electorate of around 46 000 000, you can see why I’m uneasy relying on 2 000. However, Prof Curtice assures us that with proper sampling you get pretty accurate results in most cases. He makes Brexit, Trump and the last Tory win exceptional cases. If 2 000 out of 46 million can be sampled to be scientifically valid then presumably a sample of 175 out of 3.9 million will have a reduced bit still similar level of validity. So, if the UK sample is useful then so must the Scottish one be? It was an online poll making it also more likely to be representative. Landline-based telephone polling tends to have a distorted sample with fewer young and poor respondents and face-to-face or even telephone questions tend to inhibit non-status quo or change responses. Both of the former groups are more likely to be pro-independence. See these results and conclusion from Orb:

Orb Daily Telegraph Poll March 2017

‘Q.1 Do you support or oppose Scotland becoming an independent country and leaving the UK?’

Respondents from Scotland region:

Unweighted – 185
Weighted – 175
Support – 58.7%
Oppose – 41.3%

Poll suggests most Scottish voters now back independence

 I know, it’s only one wee poll but we take our pleasures where we can, given the inbuilt bias against us in many of the other polls and this was before the spectre of a Tory landslide in England, this June, had emerged.

http://www.orb-international.com/article.php?s=orb-daily-telegraph-poll-march-2017

http://www.orb-international.com/perch/resources/marchdatatables4.pdf

There’s the door Jocks!

© independent.co.uk

Contradicting her previous support for the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which offered the stability of regular 5-year terms, she’ll ask Parliament to approve a June 8^th date. Making little sense, she has justified it by saying:

‘Our opponents believe because the Government’s majority is so small that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change. They are wrong.’

Perhaps the latest Lord Ashcroft poll is better guide to her actions? See this:

‘Including only those voters who gave a clear preference for one party in their 100-point scale gives implied current voting intentions of Con 41%, Lab 28%, Lib Dems 9%, UKIP 10%, Others 11%.’

That’s a huge lead. Even if it’s out a bit, the Tories win by a landslide and, crucially, Scotland gets an extended and emboldened Tory Government with all that implies. First, it will surely take the Indyref2 support for Yes up into a guaranteed victory level. Second, it will return another army of SNP MPs to Westminster to cause more ‘Mayhem.’ Third, surely Scotland’s liberal and europhile elites, including crucially our allegedly impartial mainstream media, will give up finally on the project of a UK that does nothing for their interests.

Here’s the March 2017 Panelbase poll for Scotland: ‘Who would you vote for if a UK General Election took place tomorrow?’

SNP 47%, Tories 28%, Labour 14%, UKIP 3%, Green 3%

So that’s an even bigger lead. Maybe the Tories would hold Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale and take Ayr but the SNP must surely take the last Labour and Lib Dem seats?

Here’s what the FM said today in the New Statesman:

‘In terms of Scotland, this move is a huge political miscalculation by the Prime Minister. It will once again give people the opportunity to reject the Tories’ narrow, divisive agenda, as well as reinforcing the democratic mandate which already exists for giving the people of Scotland a choice on their future.’

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181w10tablesforpublication170317.pdf

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/nicola-sturgeon-calls-early-election-political-miscalculation-tories

This is from the gov.scot website on the 16^th April. Overall, exports to Asia went up 7% from 2016 and some items saw major increases suggesting a very promising future for this element in a post-independence Scotland when an even stronger Scottish export agency can really push for even greater success.

Here are two details from the report prompting the Rural Economy Secretary to say that our food and drink industry is in ‘fantastic health’:

‘Food exports grew by 41%

Dairy and eggs improved by 71%’  

I though many Asians were lactose intolerant but hey.

The chief executive of Scotland Food & Drink said,

‘The impressive growth in food and drink exports to Asia reflects the hard work on our industry Export Plan. Out of ten priority export markets, we currently have food and drink specialists based in four of them – China, Hong Kong, Japan and across Singapore and Thailand. There is still great potential for further growth of Scottish food exports, especially our renowned fish and seafood, into Asian markets which account for nearly a quarter of Scotch Whisky sales’.

See the full report at: https://news.gov.scot/news/asian-appetite-for-scottish-food-and-drink

For more on the wider success of Scotland’s food and drink industries see these earlier pieces:

Food and Drink Special: Scotland’s exports surge and new SNP policies will maintain the growth.

‘Record year for food and drink exports’

Endless evidence that we can thrive independently.