Talking-up Scotland

From gov.scot two days ago:

‘Scotland’s population continued to increase between 2015 and 2016. Statistics published today by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) show that the estimated population of Scotland was 5,404,700 at 30 June 2016, which is the highest level recorded. The figures show a rise of 31,700 (0.6%) people over the year since 30 June 2015.’

Why was this both good news and evidence that it needs to go a little higher?

It’s reasonably modest growth compared to many other countries including England and the USA where rapid growth destabilises economies putting strain on social cohesion and on infrastructural elements like housing, roads, hospitals and schools. More modest growth can be absorbed while at the same time benefitting the economy with the new workers needed for economic growth and to work in the care industries where the aging population increasingly will need them. Affluent areas such as Northern Italy and Germany where population is stagnant or even declining are in deep trouble unless they permit quite a high level of uncontrolled immigration which brings unpredictability including rising crime and, in the worst, cases, terrorism.

One of the best examples of the need for some population growth or at least a replacement level birth-rate is Japan. See this:

‘Japan was one of the great powers of 20th century. It rose and fell, only to rise again – all within 100 years. The second rise is particularly notable: from 1955 to 1990 its nominal GDP grew from 8.4 trillion yen to around 430 trillion yen or about 12 percent per annum.  Underlying factors behind the economic miracle are well documented. From 1990 till 2015, however, the nominal GDP has grown only to 499 trillion yen or at dismal 0.6 percent per annum.  Radical monetary policies, liberal fiscal policies, speeches, criticisms, taunting – nothing seems to work…..Japan’s stock market indicators have not done well in the past two decades. How can a country lose its mojo so quickly? Have the Japanese people suddenly become less creative, less intelligent, less motivated and less hard working? Or is there something else that is responsible? The answer may lie in an altogether different matrix. During the boom years of 1955-1990, Japan’s population grew from 89 million to 124 million or around 0.93 percent per annum. In 1990-2015 period, however, population grew at a dismal 0.1 percent per annum. Did the Japanese suddenly stop having children in 1990? The data shows it was quite literally so. In each of the decades starting 1950 till 1990 the population grew at just over 1 percent per annum and then in the decade of 1990-2000, it dropped to 0.26 percent per annum.’

I think that’s clear and convincing. Scotland’s population growth is almost entirely due to immigration. There were slightly more deaths than births that year. However, the Scottish birth rate did increase ever so slightly at 0.7% and without immigration means there is not a crisis, without immigration, of the kind we see in Japan.

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/why-is-japan-stagnant-for-past-30-years-answers-are-in-religion-and-culture

https://news.gov.scot/news/scotlands-population-increasing

© http://ultimauk.com

In a recent post I reported on the massive sales of Scottish Salmon across Europe and beyond. I opened with:

‘After investing more than £20 million in improving the health of Scotland’s farmed salmon stock (see ref below), the industry is now booming. In 2016, 75 000 tonnes, worth £451 million, were exported to 60 countries!’

 There had been health problems reported a year or two earlier. This seems to be the basis for the recovery. The Ballan Wrasse is a cleaner fish that eats the sea lice which were responsible for problems with the Salmon. It’s a natural solution much preferable to a chemical one, I’d say. There’s also a Corkwing Wrasse.

 The chair of the Scottish Salmon Producers’ Organisation said:

‘In particular, we want to highlight the successful introduction of wrasse as a very effective and environmentally friendly way to keep salmon free of lice, which occur naturally in the water. A significant variety of marine life thrives around salmon farms, something which is not fully recognised by regulators.’

 Did they spend £20 million identifying the role of the Wrasse? Seems a lot.

https://www.fishupdate.com/first-class-wrasse-expo-stars/

© designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki

The Scottish Government has committed £6.4 billion for a number of big projects such as Orkney’s new hospital, the A737 Dalry Bypass and Forth Valley College’s Falkirk Campus.

We’ve already seen major projects near completion for this year including the M8 M73 M74 improvements and the frankly awesome Queensferry Crossing. The benefits from these will be huge in the years to come in terms of the economy and our personal convenience as travellers.

Meanwhile we hear the £100 million HS2 high-speed rail link in England might be cancelled in fear of Brexit costs. Let’s hope so because otherwise Scottish taxpayers would be contributing to something else they would not benefit from.

https://news.gov.scot/news/building-for-the-future-1

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3392821/tory-mps-want-to-put-halt-to-100billion-hs2-high-speed-rail-network-to-save-money-for-brexit/

I’ve written already on these other indicators of our strengthening economy:

Scottish businesses showing signs of greater health than those in the rest of the UK

‘Fewer Scottish businesses failing in 2017’

 Robust Scottish economy apparent in significant increases in demand for professional staff

Yesterday we heard from Accountancy in Business (AiB) of another indicator of growing business health in Scots accessing debt solutions. In the fourth quarter of 2016-17 there was a 3.9% fall in bankruptcies. Also debtors paid off their debts in greater numbers at 423 compared with only 328 a year before. Personal insolvencies have more than halved in the duration of the three SNP administrations.

Minister for Business, Innovation and Energy, Paul Wheelhouse MSP, explained:

‘The number of people falling into financial difficulty and having to seek debt relief has been falling steadily for some time‎. These figures are the second lowest since 2005/06 at which time award of bankruptcy was reserved to the courts. Since then, access to bankruptcy for those facing serious financial difficulty has been simplified greatly and in this context today’s figures highlight the low levels of personal insolvency we have in Scotland‎.’ 

 By contrast we see this in the Guardian in October 2016:

 ‘The number of people becoming insolvent across England and Wales leapt by a fifth in the third quarter of 2016, with experts warning that the numbers could continue to increase as the cost of living rises following the UK’s Brexit vote.’

If it was the other way round you can be sure the Scottish Government would attract some kind of blame from our mainstream media, so some credit for this and the above other indicators of better business health must go to them.

https://news.gov.scot/news/drop-in-scots-accessing-debt-solutions

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/oct/28/insolvencies-jump-england-wales-cost-of-living-brexit

© bbc.co.uk

After investing more than £20 million in improving the health of Scotland’s farmed salmon stock (see ref below), the industry is now booming. In 2016, 75 000 tonnes, worth £451 million, were exported to 60 countries!

This has resulted in major investment in research and development and in new production facilities with new jobs including those requiring highly educated workers.

This is just another element in Scotland’s hugely successful food and drinks sector, outperforming rUK by tonnes and providing more evidence, were it necessary, of our ability to thrive as an independent nation. See:

SNP Government-funded agents in China, Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan and Singapore, help Scotland increase exports of food and drink to Asia to more than £1 billion.

Please remember to share and to re-share all of this stuff from http://www.scoop.it/t/talking-up-scotland , especially to waverers you know, as we approach the General Election and Indyref2. Things can get forgotten.

 http://www.thefishsite.com/fishnews/29055/scots-seek-to-build-on-salmon-export-success/

https://www.fishupdate.com/scottish-fish-health-improving-massively/

© undiscoveredscotland.co.uk

In only ten years the residents of Benbecula, Ersikay and South Uist have achieved far more than any private landowner has ever done. They now have a £10 million wind farm, a £10 million marina and a world-renowned golf course. They have total assets of £35 million and have big plans for the future to create new jobs and increase the population of, currently 3 500.

Their plans include a new distillery, an extended harbour at Lochboisdale which will enable bigger ferries and cruise ships to enter and a new village to accommodate workers at the new harbour.

It clearly pays to take control of your own lives. However, there is still some way to go. See:

Scotland has the most inequitable land ownership in the west. Why? at:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/aug/10/scotland-land-rights

Also, see this from the Scottish Government:

‘It is claimed that currently 432 private land owners own 50% of the private land in rural Scotland. The latest estimate of Scotland’s population is 5,327,000 , so this means that half of a fundamental resource for the country is owned by 0.008% of the population.^[1] As a measure of inequality in a modern democracy, this is exceptional and is in need of explanation.’

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2014/05/2852/298170

https://sbnn.co.uk/2017/04/23/ambitious-growth-plans-scotlands-largest-buy-islands/

© oddizzi.com

I’ve written before about the fast growing demand from the huge economies of China, India and the other smaller countries in the area. See:

Oil predicted to settle at $60 to $70 per barrel over next three years!

Partly, but only partly, the increased demand results from OPEC’s own output cuts (to be extended for at least another 6 months). Energy Voice has headlined these dramatic flows from the North Sea as:

North Sea oil flooding to Asia like never before on Opec cuts (26^th)

North Sea oil glut to ease as huge loads shipped to Asia 924^th)

 Asia grabs record North Sea crude oil as OPEC cuts supply (24^th)

In particular, the Asian shortages are in the heavier grades which the North Sea has an abundance of.

According to Energy Voice:

‘North Sea oil is flooding into Asia like never before thanks to the most competitive crude prices in seven years. OPEC’s own output cuts are partly to blame.’

In April alone, North Sea tankers have taken more than 16 million barrels to Asia. Once more the income will be flooding into the UK Treasury. We need to move fast to keep some of this for Scotland’s future.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/137607/north-sea-oil-flooding-asia-like-never-opec-cuts/

Wind turbines at Findhorn Ecovillage make the community a net exporter of electricity.

A new £1.8 million wind turbine project has just been turned on in Achiltibuie, Wester Ross. It will be owned and managed by the Coigach Community.

According to Energy Voice, this will be the first large community-owned turbine in the mainland Highlands. Isn’t Findhorn in the Highlands? It will provide around £2 million of benefits over its estimated 20 year lifespan for the local population of 271. According to the Energy Voice article:

‘The turbine, near Achiltibuie, is now producing power which is supplied to the National Grid. The resulting income will be used to improve local services and infrastructure, help establish new businesses, provide bursaries and fund training for all ages.’

I know of at least a few more of these, in Huntly and in Udny (Aberdeenshire). There were actually 37 in  total by 2015 according to the Energy Saving Trust.

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/137357/achiltibuie-welcomes-one-first-community-owned-turbines-highlands/

http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/sites/default/files/reports/Community%20and%20locally%20owned%202015%20report_final%20version%20171115.pdf

Berwickshire Housing Association with Community Energy Scotland have built three wind turbines to provide electricity which they can sell to the national grid and then use the funds to build affordable housing in an area of scattered communities and low wages. I was born in Berwickshire and lived in a post-war ‘prefab’, so I’m doubly pleased to hear of this. This quote from the Guardian makes a very interesting comparative statement:

‘The ground-breaking initiative is being hailed as a breakthrough in a distinctly different political climate from that in England. “What is happening here is a ‘first’ – relieving housing pressure by harnessing the wind for the benefit of everyone,” enthused Scotland’s energy minister, Paul Wheelhouse. Social housebuilding is actively supported by the Scottish government. Unlike its Westminster counterpart, it has ended the sale of public housing in “right-to-buy” schemes, once seen as the late Margaret Thatcher’s enduring legacy. It is pumping more money into affordable housing. And, unlike in England, Wheelhouse insists that onshore windfarms are similarly supported rather than discouraged, in a drive to ramp up generation from renewable sources.’

The other projects supported by Community Energy Scotland include:

• The Isle of Gighain Argyll which boasts Scotland’s first community-owned wind farm. Three Vestas V27 turbines on the south end of the island are capable of generating 750 kW of electricity.
• Westray, one of the northernOrkney islands, which runs a vehicle using recycled bio-diesel and whose parish church is an ‘eco-congregation’.
• Knoydart, a peninsula inLochaber which runs a micro hydro-electric 
• Unstin Shetland which is home to the PURE hydrogen fuel research project.
• Findhornin Moray which is building an eco-village and has recently launched a UN-accredited CIFAL sustainability training centre.
• The island ofEigg is undertaking a £1.3 million electrification project, part funded by HICEC. This combination of installed solar, wind and hydro power should provide a network that is self-sufficient and powered 98% from renewable sources.
• In early 2008 theNorth Harris Trust received planning consent for three 86 metre (282 ft) wind turbines to be located at Monan. David Cameron, a director of the Trust said: “It will substantially reduce our carbon emissions and it will help North Harris re-establish itself as a thriving, vibrant community”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Energy_Scotland

Projects such as these along with the Scottish government’s social housing projects (see links below) are all-the-more significant given the loss of lifetime secure tenancies in England and the historical loss of social housing to the right-to-buy scheme since reversed by the Scottish Government. Berwickshire Housing Association had lost 450 homes to the scheme in an area where there are 50 people chasing each home.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/19/scottish-wind-energy-project-builds-new-homes

‘Social housing on the up in Scotland’

Once more the SNP’s progressive housing policies are helping Scotland weather the storm of Tory austerity

SNP government spending on affordable housing to be more than twice, per head of population, than that of Tory government

The non-reporting of the Scottish Government’s commitment to affordable housing reflects the inability of our political journalists to highlight any good news coming out of Holyrood.

SNP Government is leading the way in the UK, in building affordable and social rented housing, in welfare reform and in serious plans to tackle child poverty

You may remember that Scotland’s Accident & Emergency services consistently outperform the others in the UK and were described as the best in the world in 2016:

 Scotland has the best and still improving A&E performance in the World. (Royal College of Emergency Medicine, 2016) http://www.rcem.ac.uk/CEM/document?id=9891

 Not content with that, the SNP Government will invest £6.3 million in extra funding for the Scottish Ambulance Service, a major element in that A&E success. Here’s an extract from the Scottish Government announcement yesterday:

‘Extra funding for the Scottish Ambulance Service will help them up-skill paramedics, treat more patients in the community and reduce the numbers requiring hospital admission. A total of £6.3 million Scottish Government funding will support delivery of the Towards 2020: Taking Care to the Patient strategy – focusing on increasing the Service’s capacity for care at home or in the community. A key output will see more specialist paramedics trained – who carry an extended range of medicines and equipment, meaning unnecessary A&E admissions can be avoided. With 46 specialist paramedics set to complete training in September, their numbers will more than double, from the 32 already in post to 78.’

Writing as one with a predisposition for falling and hurting myself, I couldn’t be more pleased to hear this.

https://news.gov.scot/news/gbp-6-3m-for-scottish-ambulance-service