Talking-up Scotland

(c) Sky News

It must have been painful viewing for Tories as Paxman hit her again and again with her Brexit hypocrisy, dementia tax ‘U-turn’, generally ill-thought-out social care policies and throwing away a massive gap in the opinion polls.

He tried his damnest to get Jeremy but all he had was very old stuff on the Falklands, Hamas and Hezbollah which Jeremy was able to explain as simply inclusive language to get a meeting going.

He had a real go at Nicola over health, education and the economy but she was cool throughout and gave good clear honest answers. On independence, she was firm and consistent with no attempt to avoid the topic. My only criticism was her failure to use some of the recent and really good news about the Scottish economy especially on energy.

Do they think drawing attention to the North Sea recovery after only one bad year is a vote loser somehow? See:

Scotland’s Treasury to benefit from ‘Oil Price Shock In 2020’

 

© http://oilprice.com

As OPEC extends its production cuts to at least March 2018, Asian refiners are beginning to worry where they will get adequate crude supplies for their fast-growing markets. In April alone, North Sea tankers took more than 16 million barrels to Asia. Once more the income will be flooding into the UK Treasury. We have yet to see figures for May but all expectations are that this demand will grow.

According to Yasushi Kimura, president of the Petroleum Association of Japan, and chairman of petroleum conglomerate JXTG Holdings:

‘In 2017, global demand is likely to exceed supply … and crude prices are likely to … rise toward $60 by the end of the year.’

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/14313/opec-oil-cut-extension-renews-asias-crude-supply-worries/

This may turn out to be a conservative guess. See:

‘According to investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Oil could hit $60 a barrel by the year end if the OPEC pact to curb oil output is extended. The OPEC pact has already been agreed to end 2017 with signs it might be expected to hold up into 2018 and even exceed that figure to £70. These are well above profitability levels.’

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/05/24/scottish-oil-to-hit-60-per-barrel/

Suggestions that fracked shale oil has a long-term future in filling these shortages are built on sand or should I say lack of it:

The Scottish Third Wave of Oil Productivity is built on solid foundations but those of the Shale Oil Industry are built on sand and on sand that is disappearing fast

Further, a looming crisis in the health consequences of fracking is nearly with us. I anticipate fracking going into steep decline as these worries gain traction with mainstream politics. See:

Fracking ‘Makes Workers Sick’

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/14308/fracking-makes-workers-sick/

 

(c) Reuters

Here’s the Daily Express headline:

‘What is good in England is not in Scotland’ Davidson refuses to back May over winter fuel

Based on a Sky News interview, the Express report hits home effectively with comments like these:

Amid Conservatives’ slump in the polls, Ruth Davidson distanced herself from the policies, saying Scotland is exempt from the cutbacks.

The Scottish politician said she disagreed with the Prime Minister on a number of issues “behind closed doors” before insisting “we are keeping winter fuel allowance”.

Despite the controversial cuts in England Wales, all pensioners in Scotland will continue to receive the payments because the SNP-led government wants to keep them.

In a veiled attack on Mrs May’s policies, Mrs Davidson remained adamant: “This is something we have control of in Scotland and my colleagues down south decided, and it is absolutely right and proper that they should, that they would means-test winter fuel payments.

[See this: http://reidfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/The-Case-for-Universalism.pdf%5D

She then said Theresa May had “absolutely” got some policies wrong – without revealing specific details. 

For once, I hope the Express article got as much attention as possible. This can only help defeat the Tories. Ruth may think it will protect the Tory vote in Scotland but my previous piece suggests not as yesterday’s Opinium poll sees them fall behind Labour in Scotland

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/810270/Ruth-Davidson-Westminster-Tories-winter-fuel-cuts-poll-drop

This is the third poll showing stronger support in Scotland for both Labour and SNP with latter still almost guaranteed a landslide and losing only Borders. See:

Poll suggests Tory support falling in Scotland too as Labour close the gap in England and overturn a Tory lead in Wales. The SNP pull away again and even In Scotland too, Labour close the gap.

Latest poll: Backing for Scottish independence at 57%

ComRes polls have tended to show Tory support stronger and both Labour and SNP support as weaker. See this from politicalbetting.com:

‘With both ComRes and Opinium, the Tory lead has halved in a month. Tories had a 25% lead with ComRes, now 12%, 19% with Opinium, now 10%. As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.’

http://politicalbetting.com/

The above model development was based on the failure to predict the Tory win in 2015. As far as I can see ComRes ‘adjust’ the poll by assuming a higher turnout by Tories. That might be true, with regard to Labour voters in England, but I’m not so sure it applies to SNP voters. Given the reception for the Tory and Labour manifestos, I have a feeling Labour voters will be more likely to turn out than in the past.

Today’s Opinium Poll again contradicts ComRes most recent poll suggesting recovery by the Tories and a low figure for the SNP. Here are Opinium’s figures for Scottish respondents:

Conservative               22%

Labour                         26%

LibDem                        3%

SNP                              46%

This suggests to me that many of the Labour defectors to the Tories on the issue of the Union have had time to think about it and the much-welcomed Corbyn-inspired Labour manifesto will draw most back regardless of Dugdale. Earlier Labour defectors to the SNP look like staying where they are confident in the knowledge that they did not betray progressive values. The SNP vote is likely to fall below the 2015 figure but this suggests by too little to make any difference given the massive majorities they hold everywhere but in Borders.

Footnote: The SurveyMonkey poll is, I think, self-selecting thus completely unreliable.

(c) Scottish Homes

The report on the scottishhousingnews.com website is very good news of the decision by Glasgow City Council to grant planning permission for the homes to be built by social housing provider Homes Scotland ‘in partnership with Glasgow City Council.’

There’s no mention of the funding source. Homes Scotland is presumably reinvesting income from their current rent revenue. There is no mention of any Glasgow City Council financial investment in the £20 million project. If there was, you’d expect it to be mentioned.

I had a look in the Homes Scotland website and deep in its bowels after searching for the word ‘funding’ I found this:

‘We receive government grant money to build new affordable housing through the Homes and Communities Agency, the Greater London Authority and the Scottish Government.’

Housing is devolved so we can assume there’s Scottish Government money in this project, not getting the attention it should, especially as we approach an election.

http://www.scottishhousingnews.com/15587/green-light-for-140-homes-for-social-rent-in-glasgows-south-side/

© http://china-trade-research.hktdc.com

I’ve already reported on signs of major increases in trade between Scotland and Asia, especially China. See:

China increases imports of Scottish oil from 8 to 38 million barrels in only 4 months

SNP Government-funded agents in China, Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan and Singapore, help Scotland increase exports of food and drink to Asia to more than £1 billion.

More signs of massive oil expectations in Scotland’s waters west of Shetland and the Chinese market is desperate for it

This agreement looks like a recognition that these growing economic links require enhanced communication links. Here’s an extract from the Scottish Business News Network:

‘The capital airports of Scotland and China have agreed to collaborate to develop a shared understanding of markets and shared operational and commercial opportunities. Looking at areas where information and skills can be exchanged to achieve best practice, the airports have created a framework that allows close collaboration and cross-fertilisation of ideas and experience…..the Belt and Road initiative of China is clear and ambitious. Well, we’re at the end of that road and want to understand how we can make sure we can play a part.’

The Belt and Road Initiative of China is a $900 billion plan by China to improve her trade links by building roads, railway lines and port facilities right across Asia and Europe in a modern equivalent of the ancient Silk Roads. See this for more:

https://www.ft.com/content/0714074a-0334-11e7-aa5b-6bb07f5c8e12

https://sbnn.co.uk/2017/05/27/groundbreaking-partnership-edinburgh-beijing-airports/

© reddit.com

So far, I’ve got these:

1. Donald Gatt elected to Keith and Cullen stood for UKIP before and commenting on free meals for P1 pupils, is reported to have said that those who cannot afford to feed their children should use a contraceptive.
2. Neil Graham, a Paisley councillor, had his contact details on a leaked BNP database. I downloaded that myself at the time and found a near neighbour on it!
3. Ian James, for Strathtay, was reported to have praised a speech by UKIP MEP Steven Woolfe and bemoaned the lack of characters like Enoch Powell in the tory Pary leadership campaign.
4. Fife teacher Kathleen Leslie described Nicola Sturgeon as a “drooling hag”, a “wee fish wife” and a “walking horror show”. This is a teacher, a role model for young people, who teaches what…..English? Is she that braw hereself
5. Ken MacBrayne for Benbecula and North Uist, Roxana Iancu for Glasgow and George McIntyre for midlothian were caught in time and dropped, after anti-Muslim rants by them were allegedly identified.
6. David Wilson of Inverclyde was reported to have asked gay people to out themselves during a public meeting during which a donation to an LGBT group had been moved.
7. A supposedly grown man telling a Scottish school girl at an expensive English private school to ‘Fuck off back to Scotland’ after she expressed support for Scottish independence. James Heappey, ­prospective MP for Wells, Somerset made the statement while talking to the Sixth Form girls at the school.
8. Nancy Duncan of Mintlaw, the newly-elected vice chair of the Conservative Women’s Scottish Council an office bearer for the Banff and Buchan Conservative & Unionist Branch tweeted:‘It would be good to know exactly where in Peterhead the Hitler Youth [SNP activists] are holding their rally’ She also added images of swastikas and Hitler.
9. https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/10971/tories-silent-growing-evidence-anti-irish-and-anti-catholic-bigotry-inside-party
10. Renfrewshire councillor Neill Graham was ousted from his new role on the authority’s Joint Consultative Board for non-teaching staff within 48 hours, after trade unions threatened a boycott. The newly elected Tory, last month had to apologise for circulating material from Protestant pride groups on Facebook.

No doubt there are more, many more.

(c) By Kevin Rae, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=9256022

Conservative canvassers in Cowie and Bannockburn were NOT told to ‘Fuck off back to England’ yesterday. They were told:

‘Get out of Scotland!’ and ’You’re not welcome in Scotland.’

PC Pauline Correct reported the incident to the Police Scotland PC Committee and confirmed that the SNP activists had not said the word ‘fucking’ but she could see it in their facial expressions. The committee thus ruled the comments abusive and will expect the SNP executive to take action against the activists. Evidence that an English MP had recently told a Scottish schoolgirl attending an English fee-paying school in Somerset to ‘Fuck off back to Scotland’ was ruled inadmissible because Tories have protection under the Act of Union. See:

‘Fuck off back to Scotland!’ I told you, we can rely on the sort of people the Tories are to help us win Indyref2

 

Senior Conservatives have called the language fucking unacceptable and called on that wee bitch Nicola Sturgeon to fucking sack them all.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/police-investigate-get-out-of-scotland-abuse-video-1-4457902

This is the headline from gov.scot yesterday confirming the success of the application to the World Health Organisation, I reported on in March:

SNP Cabinet Secretary applauded for his help as Scotland’s BSE risk now likely to be graded ‘negligible’ at least three years before England and Wales

The risk of BSE in Scotland is now considered ‘negligible’.

The last confirmed case in Scotland was in 2002. The last case in Wales was only last year and the last in England was in 2012. England and Wales are not due to have their status reconsidered before 2020 at the earliest.

The Scottish Association of Meat Wholesalers submitted the application for re-grading with the help of the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Economy and Connectivity. In march, they noted:

‘We applaud the work done by Fergus Ewing and his officials in advancing and pursuing ‘negligible risk’ case on the industry’s behalf and look forward to being free to trade under our new status as early as the summer.’

Some readers may remember how BSE started. If not see this from Frederick A. Murphy, DVM, PhD, Dean of the School of Veterinary Medicine at the University of California in mad-cow.org:

‘In the early 1980s in England the rendering process (by which livestock carcasses are converted to various products, including protein supplements for livestock feed) was changed. Earlier, a solvent extraction step had been used to extract fats (tallow); this step was stopped when the price of the petroleum-based solvents used to extract fats went up. The infectious agent is solvent-sensitive. Otherwise, the infectious agent is extremely hardy — it can survive boiling and many disinfectants, but is readily destroyed by extremely high temperature (such as in an autoclave), or by oxidizing agents, or by solvents.’

http://meatinfo.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/20923/Scotland_92s_wholesalers_welcome_BSE_breakthrough.html

https://news.gov.scot/news/bse-negligible-risk-status

 

It’s only a subset of 108 Scots from a survey of 1200 UK voters but like the overall sample it is considered representative of the electorate so it’s still pretty interesting. Remember the 1200 represent 0.0026% of the roughly 46 million-strong electorate and the Scottish subset of 108 represents 0.0027% of the roughly 4 million-strong electorate. Let’s not quibble over the 0.0001% difference.

This is the second subset showing stronger support than Scotland-only polls for independence/SNP. See:

Latest poll: Backing for Scottish independence at 57%

Subsets of polls are generally ignored but I’m beginning to wonder. This Kantar TNS Omnibus poll interviewed a representative sample of 1 200 adults in Great Britain between the 18^th May and 22^nd May 2017. So, this was post the disastrous Tory manifesto release and the u-turn on social care for the elderly – the ‘dementia tax.’

You’ll have seen that Labour appears have closed the gap in England to only 5% in wider poll:

SUMMARY: Con 43%, Lab 38%, Lib 10%, UKIP 4%, Others 6%

BY: YouGov: SAMPLE: 2,052 GB adults online

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/2017-poll-tracker-general-election-10266121

In Wales, they also seem to have stopped a Tory surge in its tracks:

The latest YouGov Welsh poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University has top-line figures of CON 34%(-7), LAB 44%(+9), LDEM 6%(-1), Plaid 9%(-2), UKIP 5%(+1).

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Now, here are the figures from the KANTAR TNS Scottish subset:

SNP                  49%

Labour             15%

Conservative   8%

Lib Dem           2%

That suggests a massive collapse in Scottish Tory support. Further, if you look at the undecided and ask them which party they prefer, you get:

SNP                  12%

Labour             7%

Conservative   5%

Lib Dem           3%

So, you could, in the best-case scenario have SNP support at around 60%

Why has this happened?  It might be a little to do with the reports of nasty Tory tweeting and the apparent Nazi element amongst new Tory local councillors but it seems more likely that the disastrous Tory manifesto, the welcomed Labour manifesto and Theresa’s u-turn have had the same effect in Scotland as in England and Wales. Kezia may have a lot to thank Jeremy for. See this:

http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/sites/tns-bmrb/files/KPUK%20Polling%20tables%20-%2023.5.2017.pdf