It’s only a subset of 108 Scots from a survey of 1200 UK voters but like the overall sample it is considered representative of the electorate so it’s still pretty interesting. Remember the 1200 represent 0.0026% of the roughly 46 million-strong electorate and the Scottish subset of 108 represents 0.0027% of the roughly 4 million-strong electorate. Let’s not quibble over the 0.0001% difference.
This is the second subset showing stronger support than Scotland-only polls for independence/SNP. See:
Subsets of polls are generally ignored but I’m beginning to wonder. This Kantar TNS Omnibus poll interviewed a representative sample of 1 200 adults in Great Britain between the 18th May and 22nd May 2017. So, this was post the disastrous Tory manifesto release and the u-turn on social care for the elderly – the ‘dementia tax.’
You’ll have seen that Labour appears have closed the gap in England to only 5% in wider poll:
SUMMARY: Con 43%, Lab 38%, Lib 10%, UKIP 4%, Others 6%
BY: YouGov: SAMPLE: 2,052 GB adults online
In Wales, they also seem to have stopped a Tory surge in its tracks:
The latest YouGov Welsh poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University has top-line figures of CON 34%(-7), LAB 44%(+9), LDEM 6%(-1), Plaid 9%(-2), UKIP 5%(+1).
Now, here are the figures from the KANTAR TNS Scottish subset:
Lib Dem 2%
That suggests a massive collapse in Scottish Tory support. Further, if you look at the undecided and ask them which party they prefer, you get:
Lib Dem 3%
So, you could, in the best-case scenario have SNP support at around 60%
Why has this happened? It might be a little to do with the reports of nasty Tory tweeting and the apparent Nazi element amongst new Tory local councillors but it seems more likely that the disastrous Tory manifesto, the welcomed Labour manifesto and Theresa’s u-turn have had the same effect in Scotland as in England and Wales. Kezia may have a lot to thank Jeremy for. See this: