Talking-up Scotland

Proudly announcing 834 new homes of which 209 will be affordable, East Renfrewshire council credits CALA homes, Wimpey West Scotland and, of course, itself but forgets to mention the £25 million it will receive for its Strategic Housing Investment Plan (SHIP) from the Scottish Government. The ‘scheme’ at Maidenhill Newton Mearns sounds very impressive but it’s not the first to be trumpeted by a local authority and the Scottish Government special funding for affordable homes conveniently forgotten. See:

Once more the SNP’s progressive housing policies are helping Scotland weather the storm of Tory austerity

SNP government spending on affordable housing to be more than twice, per head of population, than that of Tory government

Link, Scottish Government and Argyll and Bute to build 600 new affordable homes at Dunbeg and Ganavon

Other sources:

http://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/19411/brand-new-834-home-community-approved-by-east-renfrewshire-council/

http://www.eastrenfrewshire.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=19103&p=0

© Reuters/JeffOvers/BBC

The latest YouGov poll which tends to be kind to the Tories gives them only a 4-point lead and suggests they will fall 18 seats short of an overall majority. Corbyn’s recent speech reminding the electorate of her being responsible for a 20% cut in policing and telling the police conference that they were ‘crying wolf’ can only worsen this situation for her.

An Ipsos MORI poll on Saturday even predicted a Labour win if all their supporters turned out. I know Labour supporters in the past have been too unreliable for that but events in London, Corbyn’s speech directly linking May’s decision as Home Secretary to a reduction of ‘bobbies on the streets’ and her failure to criticise Saudi Arabia, the source of all this horror, got full coverage on Sky News. Who knows what effect this may be having.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-2017-theresa-may-hung-parliament-majority-jeremy-corbyn-conservative-labour-yougov-poll-a7771186.html

Further, as Corbyn’s personal ratings soar, May’s personal rating turned negative for the first time in one of ComRes‘s polls. She has only four days to recover. I doubt she can.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/04/british-pm-mays-election-gamble-in-doubt-as-poll-lead-falls-to-one-point.html

Almost certainly, this results in the SNP holding the balance. If they use this to make sure a minority Tory government loses its first vote of confidence and then agree to support a Labour minority issue by issue, what favours can they extract?

© planetradio.co.uk

Figures from WWF Scotland suggest a massive increase in renewables energy production in May 2017 which could have more than met all our demand for electricity. With the Scottish Government’s Energy Strategy supporting developments, the target of 100% by 2030 is looking a certainty. See this for my earlier account:

Scotland’s energy 100% renewable by 2030?

Here are the main points published in Scottish Construction Now:

• Wind turbines in Scotland alone provided 863,494.63 MWh of electricity to the National Grid, enough to supply, on average, the electrical needs of 95% of Scottish households –an almost 20% increase compared to May 2016, when wind energy provided 692,896.1 MWh.
• Wind generated enough output to supply 100% or more of Scottish homes on eleven out of the 31 days of May.
• Scotland’s total electricity consumption (i.e. including homes, business and industry) for May was 1,857,566 MWh. Wind power therefore generated the equivalent of 46% of Scotland’s entire electricity needs for the month.
• For homes fitted with solar PV panels, there was enough sunshine to generate over 100% of the electricity needs of an average household in Aberdeen, Dumfries, Dundee, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Inverness and Lerwick.
• For those homes fitted with solar hot water panels, there was enough sunshine to generate over 90% of an average household’s hot water needs in Aberdeen, Dumfries, Dundee, Lerwick, Perth, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Inverness and Stirling.

WWF Scotland has described this as ‘an energy revolution’ which looks to me to be well ahead of schedule. I think we already knew wind power was booming but look at those solar power figures too. Where are the figures for tidal power, I wonder?

http://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/19403/strong-winds-and-sunshine-help-power-scotland-as-production-jumps-20-per-cent/

I know it’s partial figures again but this is the fourth set of such suggesting the SNP in the middle to upper 40% area. This one, from YouGov, who tend to favour the Tories gives this:

SNP 42% (n/c)
Conservatives 26% (-3)
Labour 25% (+6)

Angus Robertson has an 18% majority and Moray has been an SNP seat for twenty years now. I know there can be local variation in constituencies but I don’t think anyone is betting heavily on this one with the Tories looking like they’re at least 16% behind. The Tories who dream of toppling Angus look to be taking a hit from the Scottish Labour revival due to the Corbyn surge. That can only be good news as it will split the opposition vote and allow an SNP win, even with a reduced majority.

I’ve taken this data from the excellent http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk. You might wonder why I don’t just share it but I want to make a slightly different view of what it means. Like Scot goes Pops’ sharp-as-a-tack James Kelly, I recognise it might be a rogue poll we’re about to look at but I’m more optimistic or naïve than him. We’ll soon find out.

Here’s what the Survation online poll on the 3rd June has for the UK:

Conservatives 40% (-6)
Labour 39% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 8% (n/c)
UKIP 5% (+2)
Wouldn’t that be luverly?

It’s different from the other pollsters but as I’ve already pointed out their methods are often too Tory-friendly. See:

Despite methodology biased against shy, young and less-well-off, Ipsos MORI / STV poll shows ‘Yes’ vote holding up again

After the surprise Tory win in 2015, they’ve been compensating for ‘shyness’ and supposed higher turnout amongst Tories. They’ve also been using the less-reliable landline telephone data collection method which neglects the younger and poorer voters.

I do agree a 1% gap is a bit unlikely but I do believe it’s get uncomfortably close for Theresa.

Now for the Scottish subset:

SNP: 44%,

 Labour 28%,

Conservatives 21%,

Liberal Democrats 6%,

UKIP 2%

James wrote ‘Obviously an individual Scottish subsample can’t be regarded as remotely reliable…’

I’m not so sure. The subset will have been scientifically based just like the overall sample. Here’s what I wrote about the Kantar TNS Omnibus poll:

‘It’s only a subset of 108 Scots from a survey of 1200 UK voters but like the overall sample it is considered representative of the electorate so it’s still pretty interesting. Remember the 1200 represent 0.0026% of the roughly 46 million-strong electorate and the Scottish subset of 108 represents 0.0027% of the roughly 4 million-strong electorate. Let’s not quibble over the 0.0001% difference.’

Either way, 44% and a wee Labour recovery taking votes back from the Tories and/or splitting the two Unionist challengers can only help the SNP hold on to nearly all their seats even with a reduced majority.

(c) WPA POOL

Here’s another one for my list. They keep coming:

1. Peter Cuthbertson candidate for Darlington said in 2002: ‘Of course, it is relevant how promiscuous a woman is in determining how likely it was she consented.’ Yesterday, he was challenged on the remarks and given the opportunity to condemn them but wouldn’t. Theresa May has since defended him. Tells you something about her too?
2. Donald Gatt elected to Keith and Cullen stood for UKIP before and commenting on free meals for P1 pupils, is reported to have said that those who cannot afford to feed their children should use a contraceptive.
3. Neil Graham, a Paisley councillor, had his contact details on a leaked BNP database. I downloaded that myself at the time and found a near neighbour on it!
4. Ian James, for Strathtay, was reported to have praised a speech by UKIP MEP Steven Woolfe and bemoaned the lack of characters like Enoch Powell in the tory Pary leadership campaign.
5. Fife teacher Kathleen Leslie described Nicola Sturgeon as a “drooling hag”, a “wee fish wife” and a “walking horror show”. This is a teacher, a role model for young people, who teaches what…..English? Is she that braw hereself
6. Ken MacBrayne for Benbecula and North Uist, Roxana Iancu for Glasgow and George McIntyre for midlothian were caught in time and dropped, after anti-Muslim rants by them were allegedly identified.
7. David Wilson of Inverclyde was reported to have asked gay people to out themselves during a public meeting during which a donation to an LGBT group had been moved.
8. A supposedly grown man telling a Scottish school girl at an expensive English private school to ‘Fuck off back to Scotland’ after she expressed support for Scottish independence. James Heappey, ­prospective MP for Wells, Somerset made the statement while talking to the Sixth Form girls at the school.
9. Nancy Duncan of Mintlaw, the newly-elected vice chair of the Conservative Women’s Scottish Council an office bearer for the Banff and Buchan Conservative & Unionist Branch tweeted:‘It would be good to know exactly where in Peterhead the Hitler Youth [SNP activists] are holding their rally’ She also added images of swastikas and Hitler.
10. https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/10971/tories-silent-growing-evidence-anti-irish-and-anti-catholic-bigotry-inside-party
11. Renfrewshire councillor Neill Graham was ousted from his new role on the authority’s Joint Consultative Board for non-teaching staff within 48 hours, after trade unions threatened a boycott. The newly elected Tory, last month had to apologise for circulating material from Protestant pride groups on Facebook.

 

 

(c) bbc.co.uk

Sneakily ignoring the fact that around 20% of, typically less well-off, Scottish entrants to higher education did so through direct-entry schemes with local further education colleges, Tory politicians and media swallowed the Tory government line that tuition fees were not deterring working-class students from attending universities in England and that Scottish students were less likely to attend universities. See, for example:

‘Higher fees don’t mean fewer working class students – look at the UK for proof’

The above headline in the Guardian of May 2014 was followed by these as evidence:

‘A study by the UCL Institute of Education compared attitudes of people considering applying to university in England in 2002 and 2015. During this time tuition fees increased from about £1,100 per year to £9,000……Researchers found that young people in general had become accustomed to higher fees.’

‘Researchers from the Centre for Research on Learning and Life Chances, based at the institute in London, examined the results of two surveys of potential university applicants either side of significant increases in fees. Young people in the 2015 survey had become more ready to accept student debt, seeing it as a necessary part of getting a degree. Women, in particular, were ready to believe that borrowing to go to university was a good investment.’

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/27/higher-fees-dont-mean-fewer-working-class-students-look-at-the-uk-for-proof

However recent research from UCL in London has put paid to these early indications that students had been just been left with little choice in the matter at the time. According to lead researcher, Professor Claire Callender:

‘Working-class young people are far more likely than students from other social classes to avoid applying to university because of debt fears…. even when poorer youngsters had the same exam results, they were less likely to apply to university than wealthier ones.’

See more on this at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-40112033

(c) .harpermacleod.co.uk

Much of the funding for bigger established political parties comes from distinctly undemocratic sources such as rich individuals and corporations. Where the mass of the electorate, can support with many smaller amounts, this is a sign of a healthy inclusive democracy.  Typically, those politicians on the right, can raise much more. See, for example:

Tories raise 10 times as much cash as Labour in latest election donor figures

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2017-tory-donors-ten-times-labour-union-money-cash-electoral-commission-a7766756.html

 We’ve known for some time that the only hope of the left in the USA was crowdfunding. See:

The Secret of Bernie Sanders: Crowdfunding!

http://bradshawlawgroup.com/secret-bernie-sanders-crowdfunding/

So, it’s pleasing to see this recent evidence of crowdfunding in Scotland in the run-up to the next general election:

Sixteen of the top twenty are SNP candidates and though the best funded from rich individuals and companies, the Tories only raised £190 from crowdfunding! Their supporters are mean?

The research was undertaken by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism and shows the SNP has raised more cash using this method than any other UK political party in the 2017 general election campaign.

Total raised in Scotland by political party crowd funding appeals

SNP                  £159 319

Labour             £40 170

Green Party     £7 693

Conservatives  £190

Notice anybody missing? Yes, that bar steward Carmichael.

©  http://dreamicus.com

Writing in the Guardian in 2016, England’s most senior judge, said that the system had become unaffordable to most. Here are the facts. In 2009-10, more than 470,000 people received advice or assistance for social welfare issues. By 2013-14, the year after the Tory government’s reforms to legal aid came into force, that number had fallen to less than 53,000 – a drop of nearly 90%. The tory government has closed advice centres and fees have been increased beyond the resources of most. The ‘exceptional funding scheme’ for the most vulnerable has helped only eight children.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/16/legal-aid-review-lack-of-access-to-justice

In the same year, the Fabian Society reported on the ‘THE CRISIS IN THE JUSTICE SYSTEM IN ENGLAND AND WALES’. In a wide-ranging reported on six key features of the English justice system which undermine its ability to provide justice for all:

1. Fewer people can access financial support for a legal case
2. Exceptional case funding has failed to deliver for those in need
3. Public legal education and legal advice are inadequate and disjointed
4. High court and tribunal fees are preventing people pursuing legal claims
5. Bureaucracy in the Legal Aid Agency is costly and time-consuming
6. Out of date technologies keep the justice system wedded to the past

http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Access-to-Justice_final_web.pdf

In an effort to ensure none of this applies in Scotland, legislation to make civil justice more affordable and accessible for all was published yesterday in the Scottish Parliament.

These are the key features:

• make the cost of court action more predictable at the outset
• for the first time allow solicitors, as well as claims management companies, to offer damages based agreements which are a form of ‘no win, no fee’ agreement where the fee is calculated as a percentage of the damages recovered
• introduce a sliding cap mechanism to make the legal fees in such cases more predictable
• protect people from facing a large expenses bill if they do not win personal injury claims
• enable groups of people to sue in the civil courts where they have the same or a similar claim against the same defender or defenders. Under current Scots law, such cases have to be pursued separately

Once more, today, I find myself reporting on a Government with the interests of the public at heart and not just, as in England, those of the rich and powerful. Scottish voters need to remember the failures in England are the work of Ruth Davidson’s colleagues. Presumably she will vote for the Scottish bill and annoy Theresa again?

http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/Bills/104998.aspx

https://news.gov.scot/news/widening-access-to-justice

© heraldscotland.com

I’ve already posted:

With only 8% of the population, Scotland accounts for more than 28% of UK food and drink exports. Too wee to survive on our own?

The Scottish Shellfish Farm Production Survey 2016 was published yesterday and shows:

• Production tonnage of mussels increased by 6% from 7,270 tonnes in 2015 to 7,732 tonnes in 2016. This is the highest level of mussel production ever recorded in Scotland.
• Production of Pacific oyster shells increased by 31% from the 2015 total. Additionally, 4.6 million shells were produced for on-growing in other waters.
• Employment levels decreased by 8% from 2015, with 315 full, part-time and casual staff employed in 2016.

The industry is now worth around £11.7 million. I don’t know if that is already accounted for in the abovementioned 28% of overall UK food and drink exports. I feel sure the oysters are mainly going as exports.

https://news.gov.scot/news/scottish-shellfish-farm-production-survey-2016