The latest YouGov poll which tends to be kind to the Tories gives them only a 4-point lead and suggests they will fall 18 seats short of an overall majority. Corbyn’s recent speech reminding the electorate of her being responsible for a 20% cut in policing and telling the police conference that they were ‘crying wolf’ can only worsen this situation for her.
An Ipsos MORI poll on Saturday even predicted a Labour win if all their supporters turned out. I know Labour supporters in the past have been too unreliable for that but events in London, Corbyn’s speech directly linking May’s decision as Home Secretary to a reduction of ‘bobbies on the streets’ and her failure to criticise Saudi Arabia, the source of all this horror, got full coverage on Sky News. Who knows what effect this may be having.
Further, as Corbyn’s personal ratings soar, May’s personal rating turned negative for the first time in one of ComRes‘s polls. She has only four days to recover. I doubt she can.
Almost certainly, this results in the SNP holding the balance. If they use this to make sure a minority Tory government loses its first vote of confidence and then agree to support a Labour minority issue by issue, what favours can they extract?