SNP almost certain to hold the balance even if they lose a few seats

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© Reuters/JeffOvers/BBC

The latest YouGov poll which tends to be kind to the Tories gives them only a 4-point lead and suggests they will fall 18 seats short of an overall majority. Corbyn’s recent speech reminding the electorate of her being responsible for a 20% cut in policing and telling the police conference that they were ‘crying wolf’ can only worsen this situation for her.

An Ipsos MORI poll on Saturday even predicted a Labour win if all their supporters turned out. I know Labour supporters in the past have been too unreliable for that but events in London, Corbyn’s speech directly linking May’s decision as Home Secretary to a reduction of ‘bobbies on the streets’ and her failure to criticise Saudi Arabia, the source of all this horror, got full coverage on Sky News. Who knows what effect this may be having.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-2017-theresa-may-hung-parliament-majority-jeremy-corbyn-conservative-labour-yougov-poll-a7771186.html

Further, as Corbyn’s personal ratings soar, May’s personal rating turned negative for the first time in one of ComRes‘s polls. She has only four days to recover. I doubt she can.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/04/british-pm-mays-election-gamble-in-doubt-as-poll-lead-falls-to-one-point.html

Almost certainly, this results in the SNP holding the balance. If they use this to make sure a minority Tory government loses its first vote of confidence and then agree to support a Labour minority issue by issue, what favours can they extract?

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8 thoughts on “SNP almost certain to hold the balance even if they lose a few seats

  1. macgilleleabhar June 5, 2017 / 12:11 pm

    Some truths are inescapable especially that you reap what you have sown. Another point to remember, since I am in grandfather mode, is that competent people “Manage” others bully.

    Ms. Sturgeon I would like to think is a manager, the unionists are more disposed to other means as displayed by Amber Rudd following in the foot prints of her predecessor at the weekend..

    Liked by 1 person

    • johnrobertson834 June 5, 2017 / 5:11 pm

      He is correct about Standard Deviation but what is an acceptable SD is a convention not a truth. Why 100 and not 5 000?

      Like

  2. Clydebuilt June 5, 2017 / 7:25 pm

    What was the thinking behind ITV’s Julie Etchingham’s interview of Nicola Sturgeon. Nothing about politics, just her background and highly personal. I expected it would be used to scare English voters from Labour with the prospect of an SNP Labour coalition …….
    Flummoxed

    Liked by 1 person

  3. johnrobertson834 June 5, 2017 / 8:28 pm

    The English media don’t really like the more right-wingTories. They prefer Blairism/Cameronism

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Clydebuilt June 6, 2017 / 9:03 am

    Nicola Sturgeon was featured on three interviews last night ……

    ITV /STV 8.00 to 8.15 Pre recorded
    BBC1. 9.30 to 10.00. (Live From Edinburgh)
    STV. 10.40 to 11.00. (Live STV Glasgow)

    IMO. NS was tired for the last interview with Ponsonby. Very tired at the beginning. He managed to harangue her hardly letting her finish an answer.

    Apart from draining the FM’s batteries many viewers would be put off by so much exposure on one night and switch channels.

    Tonight STV are broadcasting their Scottish Leaders debate.

    This happened at the last G.E.

    Nb. Yesterday BBC Radio Scotland held Their leaders interview on the Call Kaye Moanin, so NS. Was supposed to show up for that ….. Stewart Hosie stood in for her.

    Like

  5. Contrary June 6, 2017 / 10:12 pm

    Stewart Hosie was very good on Call Kaye, and I am not particularly fond of the man, well he seemed to do a good job (was that really just yesterday?!). Clydebuilt, I believe you are right about NS being fairly exhausted, I haven’t seen all her interviews, but I listened to her radio 4 women’s hour one and her throat was obviously not well – was it last week in Holyrood and quite a few MSP seemed to be a bit cold-ridden? I think I’ve got a bit of a cold too, and feeling quite sorry for myself and am acting quite rightly pathetic, how NS keeps going I have no idea.

    I saw the last bit of the STV leaders debate – what a relief to hear some Westminster issues for once – although I believe the unionists were banging on about independence again before this. They are doing it just to make us sick of hearing about it so we all give up aren’t they? What other purpose can such a blatant display of anti-democracy have? I will have to catch up on the first hour of the debate, as NS did appear to be getting strained and she is usually so patient with the tripe of the other leaders.

    There was one audience member that made a personal attack against NS: Why are there people out there that have a visceral hatred for her? This was brought up by a co-worker just today & he made very valid points, she has never actual DONE anything hateful in her life (as far as I can tell), she never even talks badly of other people; fair enough disagree with her policies and opinions but she must be one of the few public figures that would be nigh on impossible to find something to hate about – so where do these people get it, what does it stem from?

    Nowt as queer as folk I suppose.

    Like

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