Talking-up Scotland

Credit: Tony Moran/Shutterstock

Developers EDPR have put in proposals for another massive offshore windfarm off the Moray coast to take advantage of the high and sustainable winds constantly available there. It will be able to power 750 000 homes. We already know of the Beatrice (Moray coast), offshore windfarm which will do 450 000 homes, the 45MWh Neart na Goithe off Fife which will do 325 000 homes (1 million people) and the 50MWh Kincardineshire floating offshore farm which will presumably do even more, say 500 000 homes.

Add to that the Pentland Firth tidal energy plant which will power 700 000 homes and you have a total of around 2 725 000 homes. How many homes have we got for only 5.3 million folk.

Massive economic benefit for Scottish economy from 84-turbine offshore windfarm

New giant wind-farm off Fife coast to create 500 jobs and supply 325 000 homes

A second ‘biggest in the world’ for Scotland’s renewable energy sector

As world’s largest tidal energy plant in Pentland Firth generates 1GWh which is enough for 700 000 homes, will Scotland become the most energy-rich country in Europe?

Add to that, again, that our onshore windfarms have on occasions produced more than 100% of the country’s entire energy needs.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/scotland-wind-turbines-more-electricity-country-needs-four-days-renewable-energy-power-national-grid-a7517066.html

And, add to that, again, the giant gas fields west of Shetland being tapped by Total that could according to BBC Scotland (!) supply the whole of Scotland.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-35568837

Add to that the huge profits still to be made from North Sea and West of Shetland oil fields.

Estimates of Scotland’s oil reserves West of Shetland now massively increased to around 8 billion barrels! ‘A super-resource now on the cards.’

Add to that our trade surplus.

England ran a massive trade deficit in 2014 and 2015 too. Scotland had an even greater surplus in those years. Who knows how much we’ve been subsidising the UK balance of payments and reducing debt over the years?

Take into account that 25 of the 26 GERS financial figures are estimates and that the whole fracking thing is a propaganda exercise

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/08/24/my-evidence-to-the-scottish-parliament-on-gers/

We are witnesses to only the early stages an energy boom of enormous scale which will transform the economic prospects of this wee country if only we can shed the Union.

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/148697/offshore-windfarm-create-2000-jobs/

I haven’t even mentioned solar power. It’s too wee yet.

 

© sbnn.co.uk

‘Under budget’. There’s a phrase you rarely hear so it’s impressive when you do hear it.  Does the Scottish government get any credit for this? Some, surely? If it had come in over budget we’d never have heard the end of it. All the costs associated with the ‘over-run’ in the completion date will have to be met by the contractor – ‘Scottish Government fails to mess-up contract’?

The new crossing is expected to last for well over 100 years and to bring many economic benefits with it including: ‘a stream of new business looking to acquire land and property in the surrounding areas. It will also help advance tourism opportunities.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/queensferry-crossing-a-bridge-to-economic-resilience

© dailyrecord.co.uk

I’m losing track of the ‘characters’ appointed to roles in the Scottish Tory Party. I updated you a few days ago on their latest embarrassments:

Phew, Scottish Tories are still bigots, racists [and penis fantasizers]. I was worried they might be changing.

Now, it seems, according to the Daily Wrecker:

‘Tory MSP’s aide is convicted boat thief and drink-driver… and party bosses knew when they hired him’

MSP Maurice Corry has appointed, at public expense, ‘convicted boat thief and drink-driver’ John McMurtrie as his Parliamentary Assistant and it’s suggested his criminal record was known at the time. It seems he’d crashed his car into a wall while over the limit and that he’d stolen £12 000 from customers of his former business, selling boats.

I suppose you could say that’s maybe less problematic than bigotry, racism, homophobia and child-abuse; crimes committed by other Tories across the UK, so it should be quite an easy one for Ruth to decide on? Yes, reinstate him, people change.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/tory-msps-aide-convicted-boat-11056180

© heraldscotland.com

There’s talk of a purge of senior officials in Scottish Labour who are tainted by association with the Blair era and its right-wing militaristic policies. This follows on from the Scottish Left Review’s call for Kezia Dugdale to be removed and for the Scottish branch to be fully behind Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. Most would give credit for Labour’s wee recovery in the last election to Corbyn’s left-wing agenda than to anything Dugdale did. Would Kezia have been a ‘Blair’s Babe’? I’m going no further on that thread of thought.

The Glasgow Herrod has rather dramatically headlined the idea:

‘Scottish Labour in civil war: Party in revolt amid calls for purge of Blairites to consolidate Corbyn’s power’

Clearly Kezia would have to go as she opposed Corbyn’s election as leader and, objectively, has been a failure as leader.

The thing is, if Scottish Labour went Corbynite, might that draw further SNP supporters back to the Labour Party thinking we’ll give the Union one more go and of course get fooled again (Who? Yes, the Who)? The danger in that is that by weakening the SNP vote, they won’t win more Labour seats but they might, by splitting the left-vote, let more Tories in with quite small majorities as well as small appendages.

I like Corbyn and I wish him well in England but surely, we’ve learned our lesson now after a century of Labour and Tory governments, leaving Scotland in economic ruin, only now being turned round by the SNP?

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15497935.Scottish_Labour_in_civil_war__Party_in_revolt_amid_calls_for_purge_of_Blairites_to_consolidate_Corbyn_s_power/

(c)  wikipedia.org and meaws.com

This piece is based almost entirely on comments from my regular and big contributor, the allegedly named Ludo Thierry.

Apparently, the Scotsman figures of 21,214 break down as:

Full Rate (ie paid for as marked) – 9,975
Below Full Rate – 5,895
Multiple copy sales – 5,344

The certificate states ‘74.8% paid’ – so the description of ‘Multiple copy sales’ is perhaps somewhat misleading? The breakdown for these Multiple copy ‘sales’ is given as:

Airside and international rail – 3,890
Hotels – 696
Trains – 471
others – 297

So – the alternative story of the daily ‘sale’ for The Scotsman seems to be:

retail, single copy and subscription sales – 15,870
big discount/? giveaways – 5,344

So – far from the stated 4.5% year-on-year ‘rise’ being suggested – an alternative interpretation suggests a 12.1% year-on-year decline.

I suggest each of us select the interpretation of the figures that best fits with our daily experience of Scottish life – I know which one my money’s on!

That suggested 12.1% y-o-y decline fits much more realistically with the remainder of the Scottish titles’ performances (see below):

P+J – circulation (49,475) y-o-y decline = 8.8%

Herald – circulation (27,655) y-o-y decline = 9.0%

Courier – circulation (37,142) y-oy decline = 9.9%

Aberdeen Evening Express – circulation (23,960) y-o-y decline = 12.7%

Glasgow Evening Times – circulation (22,397) y-o-y decline = 12.8%

Dundee Evening Telegraph – circulation (13,977) y-o-y decline = 14.5%

Sunday Herald – circulation (19,859) y-o-y decline = 8.1%

Aberdeen Citizen – circulation (40,439) y-o-y decline = 5.5%

The combined Scottish print press seem to have some kind of death-wish. It’s well reported that the print press across much of the globe is in decline – but the lemming -like propensity of the Scottish variety is passing strange.

To consistently alienate (and denigrate) half of your potential market is stupidity of an epic proportion. The inevitable results can be seen in these latest (24/08/17) 6 monthly ABC figures.

I urge everyone to look at the ‘circulations’ for the various titles – then ask yourselves my opening question.

Ed: A++, fantastic detail and good structure!

UCAS has just reported a drop of 8% in entrants to nurse training, in England, in 2017, after the replacement of bursaries by loans. According to the Nursing Times, unions had already warned this change in funding would put off many applicants especially the much-wanted mature students. The latter group have fallen by 11% compared to 2016.

https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/education/number-of-new-student-nurses-placed-at-university-still-lagging-behind-2016/7021019.article?blocktitle=Today%27s-headlines&contentID=23942

In Scotland the Royal College of Nursing, seemingly unaware of the situation in England have merely griped about the size of the increase in numbers (142 extra) in Scotland describing it as only ‘modest’ and saying the Scottish Government is failing to ‘future-proof’ the sector. Better a modest increase than a serious drop?

https://www.rcn.org.uk/news-and-events/news/student-nurse-intake-numbers-25-jan-2017

Are they failing to future-proof? See this published on 28^th June this year:

‘More trainee nurses and midwives’

‘National workforce plan for future NHS staffing. An estimated 2,600 extra nursing and midwifery training places will be created over the next four years as part of wide-ranging measures to support and strengthen NHS Scotland’s workforce.’ 

https://beta.gov.scot/news/more-trainee-nurses-and-midwives/

Further and very relevant is the question: ‘What are they increasing from?’ As it turns out NHS Scotland is already far better staffed per capita than NHS England.

As of March 2017, 139 430 staff work in NHS Scotland. That’s up more than 12 300 under this administration. The population of Scotland is 5.3 million so that’s a ratio of 1 to 38. NHS England has just announced:

‘In December 2016, across Hospital and Community Healthcare Services (HCHS), the NHS employed (full-time equivalent): 106,021 doctors; 285,173 qualified nursing staff and health visitors; 21,604 midwives; 131,791 qualified scientific, therapeutic and technical staff; 19,392 qualified ambulance staff; 20,858 managers; and 9,866 senior managers. In September 2016, across general practice, there were (full-time equivalent): 33,804 GPs (excluding locums); 15,827 nurses in GP practices; 10,009 GP direct patient care staff; and 65,334 admin/non-clinical staff.’

That makes a total of 719 673 staff. The population of England is 53.01 million so that’s a ratio of 1 to 73. I may have missed something here but I can’t see what it is.

http://www.nhsconfed.org/resources/key-statistics-on-the-nhs

Further, even these NHS England figures may not be trustworthy. See this from the Guardian in 2016:

‘NHS [England] has 70,000 fewer staff, new figures reveal. Official numbers of doctors, nurses and midwives were inflated, latest figures show.  The NHS has a chronic shortage of staff, according to new figures’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/apr/02/nhs-staffing-crisis-70000-go-missing

The Royal College of Nursing, despite its highly pretentious and establishmentarian name is a trades union just like the RMT or Unison. It’s no way a college of any kind and its royalist pretentions weaken its credibility in a state-funded institution, I’d say. It’s just all about ‘wir members’ aspirations’. We get that.

© aberdeenvoice.com

We already know that oil prices have stabilised and are likely to climb steeply by 2020:

‘North Sea oil output boost on horizon’ according to Reuters, only three months after we spotted it

Scottish Oil’s Confident Future: Three Reports

We also know that demand for office space in Aberdeen has soared recently. See:

‘Aberdeen office take-up for first half of 2017 exceeds entire 2016 figure. According to international real estate advisor Savills, office take-up in Aberdeen in the first half of 2017 has already reached approximately 270,000 sq ft (25,083 sq m), marking a 17% increase on total take-up for the whole of 2016 (c.231,000 sq ft / 21,469 sq m).’

And again, clear evidence Scottish economy is growing

We also know that jobs are returning to the North Sea:

As Scottish unemployment falls, North Sea employment starts to climb again

Now Insider magazine has visited the city and detects the air of a boom city again. Here’s a wee extract:

‘New offices are being built in the city centre as well as on the outskirts, the £550m Aberdeen by-pass (the AWPR) is on schedule for completion this winter, work is underway on the new £333m Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Centre (AECC), there are new hotels, Aberdeen Art Gallery is undergoing a £30m refurbishment and the Music Hall a £7m upgrade and £20m is to be spent on Union Terrace Gardens.’

There’s a bit of ‘Ah dinnae get carried awa wi yersel’  later in the article from the Aberdeen burghers but I’m not going to depress you with that.

http://www.insider.co.uk/special-reports/aberdeen-city-looks-like-its-11046662

I’ve already written several pieces on the limited, medium to long-term, risks posed by US shale to North Sea oil prices. In particular, its future is cursed by global sand shortages and safety fears with the latter holding back investors wary of insurance claims. See, for example:

The Scottish Third Wave of Oil Productivity is built on solid foundations but those of the Shale Oil Industry are built on sand and on sand that is disappearing fast

Scottish Oil predicted to rise to at least $60 per barrel by end of 2017 as fracked shale oil faces safety crisis

Also, the prospects for UK shale production are even less rosy due to geological constraints. See:

Why the UK’s geology means fracking will never come to Scotland and should never have been allowed in England because it’s 55 000 000 years too late!

Now French energy giant, Total, who developed the massive gas field west of Shetland which could heat every house in Scotland and more, have delivered a further blow to shale’s future prospects by refusing to invest in it on the basis of, as far as we know, cost. Apparently, US shale requires investment based on ‘assumptions’ of around $80 per barrel while North Sea crude deals require less than $55 per barrel.

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/14951/total-snubs-expensive-us-shale-with-north-sea-focused-deal/

© Getty Images

I can’t improve on the headline from ‘news.co.uk. They report on research done by Leeds and Cardiff Universities making this astounding claim:

‘Mythical creatures such as the Loch Ness Monster in Scotland and the Icelandic elves can help with the conservation of the real animals that live next to them, a new study finds. Researchers from Leeds and Cardiff universities found that the conservation of threatened species has much to gain from acknowledging people’s spiritual, magical and cultural beliefs, a new study suggests. It finds that mythical creatures can act as ‘invisible umbrella’ species, protecting non-magical creatures occupying shared habitats. The report noted that in 2015, 350,000 people visited a thriving ecotourist site in Scotland because it is inhabited by a rare, endemic animal – the Loch Ness Monster.’

I can honestly say that I have never knowingly visited an ecotourist site and I have been to a few, because of Nessie. What non-magical creatures in Loch Ness are sheltering under Nessie’s ‘umbrella’? Hoover, who am I to contradict the research.

Also, why was no Scottish University involved. Too busy doing something less likely to attract ridicule?

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/environment/national-park-privatisation-row-sells-woodlands/

As you know our renewable energy sector is already booming with 100% sustainability almost certain by 2030 but the Scottish Government is not resting and has put together a £920 000 investment along with Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) Catapult (cool name, dull logo?) to further develop the efficiency of offshore wind turbines. The programme will be based in Fife at Levenmouth.

ORE Catapult’s director, said:

‘The Levenmouth Turbine offers an unrivalled opportunity to position Scotland and the UK at the heart of European wind research. Providing a unique testing environment for new technologies, and using real-world data from the operation of the turbine, will help us develop a deeper understanding of the operations and maintenance aspects of offshore wind turbines. This will significantly help to develop the skills and experience that is critical to the future growth of the industry and its continuing efforts to reduce costs.’

As you know, offshore wind generation has advantages over onshore, including harvesting stronger winds and using larger turbines out of sight of the coastline.

The £2 billion Neart na Gaoithe (‘strength of the wind’) off the Fife coast will generate 450MW. There will be 500 jobs created during construction and 100 permanent jobs. The Scottish economy will benefit from £540 million direct investment during construction and a further £610 during operation. Also, the massive Beatrice field looks like making a major contribution to the Scottish economy:

£530 million boost for Scottish economy from Beatrice offshore windfarm

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/148565/almost-1million-propelled-scottish-offshore-wind-innovation/

Footnote re headline: Don’t metaphors last? I could have said the even older but maybe more appropriate ‘wind in our sails’. My metaphors are murder!