Talking-up Scotland

(c) feel-planet.com

Mike Russell, the Scottish Brexit Minister has spoken out about a ‘fixed link’ between Scotland and Northern Ireland. I take it he means a bridge or a tunnel. I agree strongly. There are at least two good reasons to think we can build a bridge in this scale and at least two good reasons why we should.

First, the Scottish Government has already shown itself more than capable of managing the construction of a major bridge. The World Economic Forum identified Scotland’s new Queensferry Crossing project as a model example of good practice:

‘The UK’s new Queensferry Crossing bridge, connecting Edinburgh to Fife in Scotland, offers an example on how to do it. Three good practices contributed to the high-quality process and outcomes: the UK planners diagnosed the problem early; took their time with careful design upfront; and built and sustained an inclusive coalition of stakeholders. The evidence speaks for itself. The Queensferry Crossing – a three-tower cable-stayed bridge with a length of 1.7 miles – opened in early September, well within budget and with a manageable 8-month time delay. This is a rare occurrence among bridges. According to research at the University of Oxford’s Saïd Business School, nine out of 10 fixed links (bridges and tunnels) suffer an average cost overrun of 34% and a time delay of roughly 2 years.’

See this for more detail:

‘American leaders should look across the pond for inspiration.’ World Economic Forum describes Scotland’s Queensferry Crossing project as a model of good practice for US developers

Second, although we’re talking of a 20 mile link this time, a tunnel or a mix of tunnel and bridge has already been shown to be feasible in other parts of the world. The Øresund / Öresund bridge/tunnel linking Denmark and Sweden is only 7.8 miles long but was built more than twenty years ago. Technological improvements since then have resulted in, for example, the Jiaozhou Bay Bridge in China which is the world’s longest sea bridge at 26.4 miles while the combined tunnels/bridges, the Danyang-Kunshan Grand Bridge (2011), is 102 miles long! Alan Dunlop, visiting professor of architecture at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen and Liverpool University, says a combined road and rail link between Portpatrick in Dumfries and Galloway and Larne in Northern Ireland would cost around £20 billion. HS2 is currently predicted to cost £56 billion.

Third, is Russell’s main argument that the link would help create a ‘Celtic arc’ of prosperity and cultural links. Another fixed link from Ireland to Wales would complete the arc and make possible a faster and greater flow of people, products and ideas than is possible with ferries. The Øresund / Öresund Bridge is estimated to have generated economic gains of 8.4 billion Euros on both sides of the strait. Social and cultural benefits cannot be so easily quantified but are thought to be immense. See (if you have Danish):

Hamberg, Thomas (31 August 2014). “Öresundsbron ger mångmiljardvinster” [Oresund Bridge provides multi-billion profits]. Dagens Nyheter. Stockholm

Fourth, is an emotional argument (my own) that the people of, especially, Northern Ireland, deserve to be linked more strongly and easily to the rest of the world. They, like the Bosnians, the Kurds or the Palestinians, for example, have suffered at the hands of the ‘great’ empires on their borders. They have been brutalised and, not surprisingly, they have become, at times, brutal themselves. Only acts of kindness can save them from the economic and cultural poverty they still suffer. Giving the people of Northern Ireland easy access to the world of their more fortunate cousins in Scotland, England, Wales and Ireland and beyond can, in time, turn things around.

Bridges are metaphors and the real thing too.

Leaving aside their tabloid and inaccurate language in describing the fact that the Scottish Government will meet the cost of replacing the 5% only of the cladding which is ‘similar’ with:

‘Taxpayers will foot the £6m bill for replacing cladding panels on two new Glasgow hospitals.’

BBC Scotland News open with an attempt to simply and directly associate the disaster with a risk at the hospitals:

‘Cladding similar to that used on the Grenfell Tower is to be removed from the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital and the Royal Hospital for Children…. Cladding made from an aluminium composite material is thought to have contributed to the rapid spread of the fire which engulfed Grenfell Tower in June 2017.’

Only several paragraphs later do they begin to reveal the truth

‘And after “forensic checks” last summer, cladding similar to, but not the same as that used on the London tower, was found on sections of the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital. The [NHS] spokeswoman added: “The board has been given assurances from the National Fire Officer that the hospitals are amongst the safest buildings in the UK in terms of fire engineering, however the decision was taken replace panels to give extra reassurance to the public, our patients and our staff.”’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-43031165

The BBC report, critically for understanding, does not explain the two key differences between the panels used at Grenfell and those on the hospitals. First, the ‘chimney effect’ at Grenfell:

‘TV architect George Clarke said: “There’s a new cladding system put on the outsides (of the block of flats) that looks like a new skin. There’s an air gap, and insulation behind that; to me that looks like a fantastic chimney for the fire to rage around.”’

See this diagram:

http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/cladding-fire-risk-concerns-raised-by-mps-in-2000-11364188333649

The above air gap is not allowed on Scottish buildings. The Times explained in 2017, how the Scottish Government had clearly learned from a smaller though still tragic incident in 1999:

‘On June 11^th, 1999, a disabled man was killed as a fire tore quickly through eight floors of the Scottish tower block he was living in. Alexander Linton, 55, may not be widely remembered, but his death sparked a review of Scottish building regulations that may have saved lives. After exterior cladding on the council-owned tower block in Irvine was blamed for the rapid spread of the fire, Scottish rules were changed. Now the outside walls of buildings must be designed to “inhibit” the spread of fire, and these requirements are backed up by a tough inspection regime.’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stricter-safety-rules-leave-scotland-out-of-danger-pvhnn2lz2

See also, this clarification from reader STU:

‘Can’t comment on English regs, but up here we require cavity barriers at each floor level, around door/window openings, at corners, and spaced at, for example, 6 metre centres. All designed to prevent the chimney effect and fire spreading through cavities.
I’m mystified as to why no journalists have picked up on this in reference to the SNP hospital…’

Second, the manufacturer of the Kingspan Kooltherm K15 Rainscreen board used in the hospitals said: ‘they were combined with different materials in the London block’s cladding than at the 14-storey Glasgow hospital’.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/health/grenfell-tower-insulation-also-used-in-new-glasgow-hospital-1-4501008

So, the panels are being replaced only ‘to give extra reassurance.’

According to a Bank of Scotland survey, private sector business optimism in the future is higher than it has been for 43 months. From the report:

‘New business inflows rose markedly in the manufacturing sector, supported by new customer wins and renewed export growth. In the service sector, panellists reported that successful tendering had contributed to higher order intakes. Greater staff levels enabled Scottish private sector firms to clear outstanding business. Backlogs of work were reduced in January, albeit to the softest extent since September last year. Firms took advantage of stronger demand and raised output prices in January. In fact, selling charges were increased to the sharpest extent in five months. That said, input cost inflation outstripped that of output prices to a marked degree, thereby signalling a squeeze to private sector profit margins. Cost pressures intensified in January to a nine-month high. Lastly, fresh expansions in new business and output coincided with greater private sector business confidence during January. Moreover, the degree of optimism strengthened to a 43-month high.’

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/Media/Press-Releases/2018-press-releases/bank-of-scotland/bank-of-scotland-pmi-private-sector-output-increases-at-marginal-rate-in-january/

This is another strong and objective indicator of ongoing health in the Scottish economy. For others, see:

More real evidence of economic strength: number of Scots getting permanent jobs has ‘risen sharply.’

And more evidence of a strong economy: starting salaries in Scotland increase at quickest rate for more than 3 years

(c) playbuzz.com/nicklivingston

It’s been more than 80 years since ‘No Mean City’ was set in Glasgow and comedians, including our own, continue to base their humour on an image of a violent, drunken people but the last ten years have seen them become increasingly out of touch with the reality on the streets. See these recent reports revealing Scotland’s drift away from several negative indicators:

Scotland’s homicide rate falls by 47%, is lower than the rate for England and Wales and has fallen faster than many other countries in the ten years of SNP government

Of 35 children and teenagers killed with knives in Britain in 2017, not one was in Scotland, yet in 2005, the UN called Scotland the most violent country in the developed world.

Reported domestic violence in Scotland falls. Is this part of wider change?

Scotland’s university cities by far the safest places to send your children

Today, I read in the Independent:

‘Alcohol-related admissions have risen by more than two-thirds in a decade, with the figure now standing at more than 1.1 million in 2017, according to data released by Public Health England (PHE).’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nhs-latest-alcohol-addiction-hospital-admissions-record-high-support-services-rehab-cut-jeremy-hunt-a8200876.html

So, quickly, I checked the Scottish figures and found:

‘In 2016/17 there were 36, 235 alcohol-related hospital admissions (stays) in general acute hospitals in Scotland. ‘

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Drugs-and-Alcohol-Misuse/Publications/2017-11-21/2017-11-21-ARHS-Report.pdf?

1.1 million and 36 235? You don’t have to be good at estimation to see what looks like a huge difference per capita so I checked the Independent hadn’t made a mistake. Here are the actual data from Public Health England:

In England, in 2017, there were 1 140 882 admissions to hospital for alcohol-related causes. This was a 38% increase from 2009/10.

https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/local-alcohol-profiles/supporting-information/quarterly-data

So, with ten times the population, you might have expected England to have around three to four hundred thousand admissions at most, but they had around three times as many at 1 140 882 admissions. Interestingly, the Independent had a link to another report titled: ‘More than half of adults drink to cope with stress’. Merrie England under the Tories?

 

(c) ciwm-journal.co.uk

Back in June 2017, I headlined a piece with:

With only 8% of the population, Scotland accounts for more than 28% of UK food and drink exports. Too wee to survive on our own?

In the above piece, I was able to demonstrate that Scotland produced at least 28% of all UK food and drink exports. A few days ago, we heard from multiple sources:

Salmon and Scotch whisky exports soar to record levels

In these reports we discovered, in particular, that Whisky exports had risen to £4.36 billion, up 9% on 2016 and now accounting for 20% of all UK food and drink exports. We also read that Salmon exports had leapt (upriver) 35% (!) to £600 million.

Now if the £4.36 billion is 20%, then £600 million is further 3% taking us to 23% with just two exports. Add the gin, which we produce the most of in the UK, other seafood, craft beer, beef, haggis and Kirriemuir iced gingerbread, all of which gave us a total of £5.6 billion in 2016 and I’m guessing we may well be contributing as much as 30% of all UK food and drink exports.

Only 30%? How could we survive on our own?

Footnote: Food and drink exports to the rest of the UK were estimated at more than £4bn in 2014.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-28916642

 

The Scottish government’s spending on agency staff for the NHS, in 2016/2017 was £171 million or £469 543 per day.

Here’s the Scotsman headline today and the full exposure to an evidence-free Tory rant:

‘NHS spent almost £500k a day on agency staff, report shows: The Conservatives said the figures, disclosed by Health Secretary Shona Robison in an answer to a parliamentary question from party health spokesman Miles Briggs, indicate the government has “failed” to ensure sufficient staff levels in the NHS. Miles Briggs said: “Agency staff are really important in our NHS as they are flexible and can fill short-term staffing gaps, as well as reducing waiting lists. However, the SNP mismanagement of the NHS has clearly led to a long-term reliance on agency staff at very high cost. These figures expose the utter hypocrisy of the SNP as it has consistently spoken against private involvement in the NHS whilst spending half a million pounds each day to agency staff. The SNP has totally failed to ensure that staffing levels in the NHS are sufficient, and with morale at rock bottom among doctors and nurses, this will only get worse. It’s time the SNP took responsibility for this situation, get on with the day job, and make sure our NHS has enough staff to function properly.” The figure is down £2.8 million on the previous financial year but has risen by around £76 million in a decade.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/nhs-spent-almost-500k-a-day-on-agency-staff-report-shows-1-4686838

 That’s a lot of free and rabid anti-SNP propaganda for nothing. Of course, it saves the Scotsman money too in labour costs.

Now, I know the Scotsman/Tory alliance doesn’t like whitabootery unless it serves their interests but whitaboot ‘context’ (see any guide to good journalism) so whitaboot England? I wrote on the very same issue last year, for 2014/2015, at:

Scottish Tories feed BBC Reporting Scotland with more distortions to mislead the public as NHS Scotland, under the SNP, massively reduces the cost of agency nurses and NHS England, under the Tories, loses control of mind-boggling costs.

However, it’s only right that I check the 2016/17 figures from NHS England. Well according to their own figures, NHS England spent ‘£250 million a month or £8.3 million per day’ in 2016/17.

https://improvement.nhs.uk/news-alerts/agency-caps-one-year-600m-saved-nhs-spending-still-too-high/

Here we go again. England has almost exactly 10 times the population, yet NHS England is spending 17.67 times the amount on agency staff. It took me about 15 minutes to gather this contextual information. Are Scotsman writers too hard-pressed for even that?

As for the Tory rant, I leave you to marvel at its awesome fictional qualities and perhaps to calculate what percentage of the total NHS Scotland spend of over £13 billion was spent on agency staff. Oh OK, it’s 1.3%, a virtual privatisation of our NHS!

(photo placed this way to help older viewers exercise)

I’ve already reported on an increase in dolphin numbers under the SNP. Now we hear that the red squirrel population is thriving in the North-east and stabilising throughout Scotland.

https://scottishsquirrels.org.uk/news/article/2017-squirrel-survey-reveals-scotlandrsquos-red-squirrels-are-holding-on-strong/

Could there be some subconscious effect of greater autonomy in Scotland transmitting itself to the wildlife populations? I feel sure even the dogs in my local area are a bit friendlier these days. One of the cuddliest is a wee Westie. Weren’t they vicious wee buggers back in the PS (Pre-Salmond) era? See our ‘Mac’ above, home on leave from insurgent-biting duties in Aden. He used to attack Alsatians in the 1960s, remembering well that they were undercover Germans.

SNP responsible for massive increase in dolphins! More help for small businesses from RBS but can we trust them? And now we have more devolution so now more responsibility to end child poverty in Scotland. Let’s do it

I couldn’t find any scientific correlation between the SNP and red squirrel populations though I had done so, for dolphins in February 2017. Suspecting, naturally, that SNP marine policies might be responsible, I did a quick ‘SNP dolphins’ search and found what looked like confirmation in:

Genome-Wide SNP and Population Divergence of Finless Porpoises at: https://academic.oup.com/gbe/article/5/4/758/589369/Genome-Wide-SNP-and-Population-Divergence-of

I still haven’t had time to read the article, but the title seemed clear. I supposed another explanation might have been a softening of the ‘Wee Free’ kirk’s disapproval of having fun in recent years? Or, could Donald Trump’s policies have been driving them away from Florida to a country with a more positive attitude to migrants?

Since writing this, some commentators have offered an alternative reading of the acronym SNP, but I remain convinced the SNP (Scotland Needs Porpoises?) government is not just good for humans but has a subtle effect on the well-being of our flora and fauna too.

Make up your own mind, but Blairite Labour was clearly not red enough for our squirrels.

I see they’ve taught Orcas to speak recently. Perhaps we could get their opinions on this?

According to the Guardian today:

‘Hospitals recorded their worst performance against the four-hour A&E treatment target last month as the NHS came under unprecedented strain because of winter and the flu outbreak. A&E units based at hospitals managed to treat and then admit, transfer or discharge just 77.1% of arrivals within the politically important four-hour target in January. That compared with 77.3% in December, which was also a new record low at that time.’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/08/nhs-hospitals-england-worst-a-and-e-performance

Though NHS Scotland report weekly, the average for January 2018, was 85% of patients seen, treated and discharged with 4 hours.

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Emergency-Care/Publications/index.asp#2098

The crisis in NHS England has of course, led administrators there to drop A&E targets for the next two years, as they claim ‘Tory austerity cuts make them impossible to keep’. See:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/lifestyle/health/ae-waiting-times-axed-nhs-11961387

This decision suggests the winter flu pressure is only part of the story in NHS England.

From news.gov.scot today:

‘An investment of over £5million will bolster the work of one of Europe’s most cutting-edge research and innovation facilities. The funding from the Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise will support the second phase of work of the Fraunhofer Centre for Applied Photonics (FhCAP) in Glasgow. The non-profit centre specialises in photonics, or laser technology, and FhCAP is the innovation catalyst at the core of Scotland’s £740m-a-year photonics community.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/innovation-investment

This is another in a series of Scottish Government initiatives to promote and support the Scottish economy. Much of this goes un-reported by our media. Here are some earlier examples reported here in the last year or so:

Scottish Government pledges £60 million to maintain its confirmed UK and European lead in low-carbon innovation but BBC Scotland News reports unsubstantiated rumours that ‘Budget cuts ‘could damage Scotland’s climate change ambitions’’

Scottish Government to spend £600 million on Superfast broadband for rural areas

British Ecological Society praises Scottish Government for enabling ‘a unique opportunity to closely link policy to research’

Two Fife companies revive Soviet Space technology to provide clean water for 100 000 people in Pakistan using Scottish Government grant

Aberdeen’s National Hyperbaric Centre to double income in one year as Scottish Government invests £1 million in a second facility

Actually, these are from only the last three months. If you have time to read more, search the blog for ‘Government’ and you’ll get dozens more.

 

From the BBC Scotland website today:

‘Starting salaries in Scotland have gone up at their quickest rate in more than three years, according to a survey of recruitment agencies. The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) said increasing competition for “good quality staff” meant employers were willing to pay more to attract the right people.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-42982791

I’ve just posted a longer piece explaining why this is the kind of evidence we can trust in contrast to the GDP and GERS estimates regularly used to undermine confidence in Scotland. It’s here:

More real evidence of economic strength: number of Scots getting permanent jobs has ‘risen sharply.’