Talking-up Scotland

The number of fire casualties to the end of Q4 2016/2017 was 887. This is 8% lower than the Scottish Government Target of reducing such casualties to 966. The number of accidental dwelling fires had increased, in the same year, by more than 10%, to 4922.

http://www.firescotland.gov.uk/media/1165082/quarterly_performance_report.pdf

However, on the basis of what appear to be merely anecdotal and partisan comments from a trades union secretary, the Herald reported:

‘Denise Christie, Scottish Secretary of the Fire Brigades’ Union, said the controversial creation of a single nationwide service in 2013, coupled with austerity, has led “to the worsening of response times, increased fire losses and increased deaths”. ‘

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16063588.Firefighters__leader_says_cuts_and_a____postcode_lottery____has_led_to_deaths/

No actual statistics to support the claims of worsening response times in 2017 were offered. However, the Times claimed to have gained access to figures showing that: ‘between 2011 and 2016, the average response time across Scotland grew by 24 seconds, to seven minutes 48 seconds.’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/longer-response-times-blamed-on-firefighter-numbers-cuts-m39v2chtn

That represents an increase of 5.4% over 5 years or around 1% per year. With the number of dwelling fires to be tackled increasing 10% in 2016/2017, alone, this might suggest improved performance overall. I appreciate, I have not matched the time periods exactly but the lower number of casualties than predicted in the target set against the large increase in cases to be dealt with, in 2016/2017, does suggest an improving picture contrary to the Herald report.

Finally, in 2016/2017 firefighter staffing has been increased by 100 and Scottish Government funding, against the background of austerity cuts and excessive unresolved VAT demands, has increased by £21.7 million.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/sp/?id=2017-10-25.1.0

With two dodgy anti-SNP reports on the website today, you’d think a date for Indyref2 had been announced.

In the quarter ending 31^st December 2017, 100% of patients were screened for IVF treatment within 365 days. The 90% target has now been met since reporting started three years ago. All of these patients receive three full cycles of treatment, at no cost, regardless of where they stay in Scotland.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Waiting-Times/Publications/2018-02-27/2018-02-27-IVF-Summary.pdf?5852907897

In England, only 12% of boards offer three full cycles in line with official guidance. 61% offer only one cycle of treatment and 4% offer none at all. Private treatment costs between £1 343 and £5 788 per cycle.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/ivf-nhs-treatment-fertility-lists-wait-patients-lottery-budget-cuts-a8028116.html

Failing to treat infertility can also result in problems and further costs for the NHS in other areas. A Danish study of 98 737 women, between 1973 and 2003, showed that women who were unable to have children were 47% more likely to hospitalised for schizophrenia and had a significantly higher risk of subsequent drug and alcohol abuse.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn22020-infertility-may-increase-risk-of-mental-disorders/

 

 

(c) lastminute.com

In a short piece in Insider magazine, with no actual figures quoted, Technology recruitment specialist Harvey Nash report a growth in the number of firms moving out of London attracted by Glasgow’s lower office-space costs and the strong supply of technology graduates, from the greater city area’s four universities.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/glasgow-becoming-increasingly-popular-location-12113763

Financial services are, of course, almost entirely technology-based and no longer need to be physically located in London’s financial district.

This is another of the numerous positive indicators emerging from the Scottish economy and reported here:

Business growth in Scotland well ahead of UK average

Scottish business confidence soars to three and a half-year high

And another one: ‘Scotland Revealed as Top Place in UK to Launch New Business’

77% of Scotland’s small and medium-sized businesses report success as Scottish Government reports record numbers exempt from rates and in the wake of figures revealing much greater signs of distress among rUK businesses.

£226 million given in relief to small businesses in 2017-18 as part of most generous scheme in the UK

40% increase in number of new Scottish businesses mainly under SNP government

Scottish businesses showing signs of greater health than those in the rest of the UK

Quality of life factors for staff  were not mentioned but will be important too. Taking just two examples, Glasgow’s plummeting crime levels, lower than any English university city,  and free HE tuition will have helped. See, for the former:

Scotland’s university cities by far the safest places to send your children

Reported in Scottish Housing News today:

‘Key benefits will be future-proofed to ensure they hold their value in real terms under Scotland’s new social security system, social security minister Jeane Freeman has said. Following earlier commitments to have annual rises in Disability and Employment-Injury Assistance, Ms Freeman has ensured those are enshrined in legislation by bringing forward amendments to the Social Security (Scotland) Bill and has supported extending the guarantee to Carers Assistance when the Scottish social security agency takes over delivery of Carer’s Allowance.’

http://www.scottishhousingnews.com/20100/ministers-future-proof-social-security-commitment-inflation-linked-payments/

There’s actually some cross-party consensus on this but that still leaves the Tories to find fault and have it broadcast uncritically by our media.

As for being different enough to make a difference, is there enough evidence? Well, see these from only as far back as August 2017:

SNP moves to finally put an end to foxes’agony being ripped apart by hounds as the English Tories plan a return to the unspeakable business. Different again?

8% of the UK population and 28% of living wage employers. More evidence that we are different enough to want to run the whole show?

Racial hate crimes increase by 33% in England & Wales while falling by 10% in Scotland: Who says we’re not different?

Scottish social housing more accessible and cheaper than in rest of UK

BBC Scotland’s shameless attempt to scare with claim that Scottish hospital has cladding ‘similar’ to that of Grenfell revealing ignorance of Scottish building regulations.

Of 35 children and teenagers killed with knives in Britain in 2017, not one was in Scotland, yet in 2005, the UN called Scotland the most violent country in the developed world.

Reported domestic violence in Scotland falls. Is this part of wider change?

Scotland has lower poverty rates than England: JRF Excerpt 1

Could Scotland end homelessness?

Scottish Government to fight alongside UN to defend disabled against Tory cuts.

Scottish care workers to receive Living Wage for ‘sleepover’ hours while English care workers receive only the National Minimum Wage.

Scots more likely to give to charities, to volunteer or to sponsor others

Scots the least respectful of the upper classes: More evidence of a difference that makes a difference?

In Scotland, 58 000 new mothers every year to get baby box worth £160 but Labour are not completely happy

Enough? If not, there are more on the blog if you just search for ‘different’.

(c) pestforcestockport.co.uk

Today, the BBC Scotland website did a piece on growth in the Scottish oil and gas sector with barely a sign of a ‘but’. They’ve let one or two such reports slip through, over the past year or so. If they’d only had a word with Reporting Scotland, they’d have got a big contribution from them along the lines of ‘ah but, thousands have jobs were lost in 2016’ or ‘ah but, the UK treasury got no tax revenue in 2016’ and then a repeat of that prediction from the Edinburgh University professor saying it won’t last long. Remember:

An Edinburgh University Professor says North Sea oil and gas has only ten years left while the Wall Street Journal describes it as an ‘oil hot spot’ and Oil and Gas UK doesn’t recognise his figures. Who’s right?

Anyhow, they didn’t and headlined:

‘Oil and gas production predicted to increase’

It was still a bit hesitant compared to Insider and Energy Voice, who went for:

‘North Sea output expected to beat forecasts’

and:

‘North Sea operators to deliver 2.8billion barrels extra, OGA says’

They went on to say:

‘The oil and gas industry regulator has raised its forecast of what can be recovered from the waters around the UK over the next three decades. Changes in the way the sector operates are thought to have unlocked the potential for a further 2.8 billion barrels of oil or the gas equivalent. It is now estimated that 11.7 billion barrels could be recovered between 2016 to 2050.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-43254085

That’s a bit pessimistic compared to this, from the Torygraph ten years ago, and before the recent technological advances and lowered costs:

‘Dr Richard Pike, a former oil industry consultant and now the chief executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry, said: “Rather than only getting 20 to 30 billion barrels [from the North Sea] we are probably looking at more than twice that amount.” His analysis is supported by petroleum experts who believe there are some 300 fields off the coast of Britain still to be explored and tapped properly. If energy prices continue to soar, companies will become increasingly willing to tap previously uneconomic oil fields. Dr Pike claims that the industry knows the true figures but refuses to release them because of commercial secrecy.’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2131258/North-Sea-oil-will-last-for-100-years.html

Mind you, even the 11.7 billion barrels at the current going rate of £76pb means gross income of $889 billion for producers and several billion in tax revenue for a Scottish treasury.

The BBC report also mentions in passing: ‘More than 43 billion barrels have been extracted from UK waters so far.’ Again, even at today’s prices, which are lower than in the past, that was $3.2 trillion and many billions of tax revenue, which paid for Thatcher’s de-industrialisation of the UK and for building the infrastructure of London and the South. I suppose the webmaster will be too young to remember that.

Ooops that should read EI (Energy Institute) president. My brain, damaged by living through the 60s and 70s, misread the Energy Voice headline today:

‘There’s more to the North Sea than ‘boom and bust’, EI president says’

Anyway, the argument he presents is an interesting one for Scotland’s future economy, after independence. He makes the three points that reduced costs, new technological extraction solutions and digitalisation will enable the industry to break the boom and bust cycle resulting from dramatic sale price fluctuations of the kind we saw in 2016. With regard to digitalisation, he says:

‘There has been a lot of talk around the opportunities digitalisation will unlock. It’s no longer pie in the sky – talking about things we can do 10 years from now. It’s about things which can be done in the next two or three years. It’s about crunching enormous amounts of data to help make better decisions around areas such as maintenance and understanding reservoirs.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/164894/theres-north-sea-boom-bust-ei-president-says/

This adds to the optimism generated by the rising price trend already reported here, multiple times:

20 years till peak demand for Scotland’s oil, time to get our share?

Billions to flow to UK Treasury as Scottish oil prices reach nearly $65 per barrel

Only one piece missing from the set – independence!

©2016 John King

According to Scottish Natural Heritage, this week:

‘Scotland’s woodland and farmland bird numbers have increased over the past two decades, but during this time, upland birds have faced decline. The latest results reveal varied trends for Scotland’s terrestrial breeding birds, with woodland birds increasing by 67% between 1994 and 2016, farmland birds increasing by 13%, but upland birds decreasing by 16%.  Woodland specialists, such as great-spotted woodpecker and chiffchaff, have shown the largest increases…..For farmland species, goldfinches have continued to increase and are now a common sight in most gardens.

https://www.snhpresscentre.com/news/scotlands-woodland-and-farmland-birds-increase-as-upland-birds-decline

I hope it’s not too flippant to suggest blame for the decline in upland birds might be laid at the mansion doors of Tory landowners who would prefer biodiversity there, was reduced to just one species, the grouse, so that their massive flocks are easy targets for even the most drunken of their clients.

I’m basing my headline claim on parts of the Annual implementation report

United Kingdom, Rural Development Programme (Regional) -Scotland which includes details of the Scottish Government’s agencies’ planning for biodiversity in forest, farmland and upland areas. The EU funds the programme.

For the four targets:

T8: percentage of forest/other wooded area under management contracts supporting

biodiversity (focus area 4A)

T12: percentage of agricultural land under management contracts

to improve soil management and/or prevent soil erosion (focus area 4C)

T10: percentage of agricultural land under management contracts to improve water management (focus area 4B)

T9: percentage of agricultural land under management contracts supporting biodiversity

and/or landscapes (focus area 4A)

£222 527 672 of public expenditure was spent in 2014-2016 (Page 12). I appreciate that not all of this was specifically bird-targeted, but they are included in the concept of biodiversity and some actions were specific.  See:

‘Scotland has had an AEC [Agri-Environment and Climate Scheme] scheme since the early 1990s and has developed a suite of interventions that benefit Scotland’s biodiversity. The evaluators were told that evidence from previous programmes has demonstrated the benefits of AEC measures in supporting biodiversity. Of the “original” AEC schemes, the creation of Wild Bird Seed is considered to be one of the most beneficial actions, as it creates a food source for vulnerable bird species during winter in mixed agricultural systems throughout Scotland’ (page 84)

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0052/00522124.pdf

Footnote: I hope to be able to report, soon, on the benefits of other parties for tits.

(Photo: twitter/ScotGovFM)

The Scottish Government has announced the plan with the following recommendations:

‘The bank should:

• Be publicly-owned and mission-driven, focused on supporting Scotland’s economic priorities and promoting inclusive growth
• Operate in an ethical and transparent way
• Cowork to crowd in, not crowd out, private sector investment
• Be supported by long-term capitalisation of at least £2 billion over the first ten years
• Become self-sustaining in the longer term, raising its own capital to fund investments
• Provide long-term, patient finance for both smaller firms and larger projects
• Create opportunities and new markets for the private sector to invest in’

https://news.gov.scot/news/a-publicly-owned-investment-bank-for-scotland

At first sight, the plan looks tremendously positive and the public consultation response has been very enthusiastic too. In particular, Scottish Renewables and Friends of the Earth Scotland, reported in Energy Voice today, have said that ‘a new publicly-owned investment bank opens the door for effective investment in low carbon energy solutions.’

The Chief Executive of Scottish Renewables, said:

‘Scotland leads the world in the development of devices which can capture energy from waves and tides – but these are sectors which are at a difficult stage of their development. Wave and tidal technologies offer particular characteristics that are helpful in supporting our move towards a new, less centralised energy system and, as we’ve seen in the economic cases behind our island wind projects, can offer wider benefits to smaller, more fragile economies. With the right investment, our wave and tidal energy sectors can continue on the path towards full commercialisation, giving Scotland a huge first-mover advantage in an energy sector with enormous global potential.’

Evidence of the potential in Scottish wave and tidal energy production has been reported earlier here at:

As world’s largest tidal energy plant in Pentland Firth generates 1GWh which is enough for 700 000 homes, will Scotland become the most energy-rich country in Europe?

MAJOR NEWS: World’s first tidal-powered hydrogen generated in Scotland after £3 million funding from SNP Government

 Friends of the Earth Scotland said:

‘We’re encouraged that plans for the establishment of the Scottish National Investment Bank are progressing, and commend the First Minister’s strong indication that the Bank will be tasked with building the new low-carbon economy.The creation of a new publicly-owned Bank which invests to maximise social, environmental and ethical returns and intervenes fully in the economy to create and shape markets could be transformative in Scotland’s efforts to address climate change and inequality.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/164906/scottish-investment-bank-opportunity-low-carbon-energy-investment/

See these for additional thoughts on the topic:

Why Scotland needs a National Investment Bank

Scotland to get a National Investment Bank to help grow the economy and do what the big banks have failed to do

We already have a kind of National Investment Bank though we still need a bigger one

I think this is non-controversial, very good, news for Scotland and I look forward to any attempt by BBC Scotland to present it otherwise.

Here’s how the Guardian reported on the recent Kings Fund research on satisfaction levels with GPs.

‘Only 65% of the representative sample of 3,004 people in England, Scotland and Wales questioned last autumn were satisfied with GP services, the lowest percentage since records began in 1983. That is sharply down on the 80% satisfaction rating seen as recently as 2009. Satisfaction fell by 7% between 2016 and 2017 alone in what experts said reflected public frustration at the increasing difficulty in getting a timely GP appointment.’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/28/satisfaction-with-gps-at-lowest-level-for-30-years-survey-finds

I emailed to request a breakdown of English, N Ireland, Scottish and Welsh responses so that I could make a comparison justified by the separate management of the four. I had been able to do so with the Commonwealth Foundation of New York in 2015 which had revealed Scottish GPs to be significantly more satisfied and less-stressed than those elsewhere. My full report is here:

Scottish GPs: Most satisfied and least stressed in the UK and possibly the world

However, the Nuffield trust response was:

‘There isn’t really a single source of data that compares the four different health systems.  The most regular report I think would be by The European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies.  They publish the Health Systems in Transitions (HiT) report for a number of countries.  They are published roughly every five years or so, the last United Kingdom HiT was published in 2015 and compared the four nations’ health systems.’

Well, clearly a 2015 report is of no use to us but the impossibility of easily extracting the Scottish responses seems surprising when the Commonwealth Foundation had no such difficulty.

I don’t want to seem paranoid but given the nature of responsibility of the four NHS areas, why didn’t they organise the data so that comparisons could be made? One conclusion would be that they have been pressurised not to allow such comparison.

So, we’re left with speculation and I speculate that the Scottish patient satisfaction level will be higher because we have more GPs per head of population, that our GPs have been offered a superior contract and that, at least in 2015, they reported themselves to be relatively free of stress or undue workload. See these for details:

‘Scotland has more GPs per head of population than any other part of the UK, newly released statistics show’

Already the best staffed and least stressed in the UK, Scottish GPs to get better contracts

New Scottish GP contract rated far superior, by BMA, to English equivalent as Scottish GP numbers hold steady and NHS England loses 1 000 in one year!

 

(c) instantoffices.com

Based on the annual regional cities office market review produced by Knight Frank , Glasgow saw a four-fold increase in the total value of investment last year with almost half due to overseas investment. From Knight Frank and reported in Insider today:

‘Clearly, prime asset opportunities in Scotland remain highly sought after across the globe. In 2018, we expect to see competition between investors, coupled with a shortage of premium asset opportunities, contributing to hardening yields. For many organisations, it’s clear that Scotland remains very much on the wish list.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/investment-glasgow-office-property-surges-12096287

I know I keep battering away at this, but we have here, the kind of hard evidence of a strong economy which contrasts with the woolly estimates favoured by our media – GDP and GERS. There are probably thirty of forty earlier reports here providing other comparable hard evidence. Here are only some:

Business growth in Scotland well ahead of UK average

Scottish business confidence soars to three and a half-year high

And another one: ‘Scotland Revealed as Top Place in UK to Launch New Business’

77% of Scotland’s small and medium-sized businesses report success as Scottish Government reports record numbers exempt from rates and in the wake of figures revealing much greater signs of distress among rUK businesses.

£226 million given in relief to small businesses in 2017-18 as part of most generous scheme in the UK

40% increase in number of new Scottish businesses mainly under SNP government

Scottish businesses showing signs of greater health than those in the rest of the UK

Much of this is based on easily-accessed, mainstream, business magazines which I must assume litter the coffee tables in Pacific Quay.