20 years till peak demand for Scotland’s oil, time to get our share?


This is the third report suggesting that peak demand for oil is a long way off. Last year, the CE’s of both Aramco and Chevron predicted peak demand being 20 to 30 years ahead. See:

Is Peak Oil still 20 or 30 years in the future and so, would an independent Scotland be rich?

Now BP have joined the debate suggesting:

‘The mix of fuels is to be the “most diverse” the world has ever seen, as global energy demand is set to increase driven by emerging economies like China and India and use of gasoline and diesel cars. Demand for oil is expected to grow through much of the outlook period, however this is set to plateau at around 110 million barrels of oil per day in the mid-2030s, according to BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale.’


This news further reinforces the view that prices will say high for decades to come resulting in massive flows into to the UK or Scottish treasuries. The choice is ours. See:

Billions to flow to UK Treasury as Scottish oil prices reach nearly $65 per barrel

Contrary to media doomsayers, it’s now clear that Scotland has the resources to exploit this market, in both the North Sea:

New technology to extend life of North Sea oilfields. Reports of its death have been greatly exaggerated

and, even more so, west of Shetland:

Estimates of Scotland’s oil reserves West of Shetland now massively increased to around 8 billion barrels! ‘A super-resource now on the cards.’

8 billion barrels at £65pb or even more later means, not counting the North Sea flows, a total of £520 billion earned by the oil companies. Scope for a lot of tax revenue there I’d say.


9 thoughts on “20 years till peak demand for Scotland’s oil, time to get our share?

  1. Clydebuilt February 22, 2018 / 9:34 am

    O/T apologies

    Those who are paid to keep the UK together are working to pile pressure on the Westmonster Tory government to pull back from a hard Brexit even to stay in the Single market.
    Since the EU referendum the Herald has had pro Remain editorials. This week MacWhirter demonstrated how damaging any form of Brexit would would be to Scottish Fishing and Farming.
    This morning at 8.10am Gary Robertson had on Kenny Farquharson + journalist from Press & Journal. KF didn’t mince his words, supporting the SNP’s version of events agreeing Westminster are trying for a “Power Grab” . . . “Not respecting the Devolution Settlement” , KF did say that Ruthless Davidson wants Scotland to remain in the Single Market

    Liked by 1 person

    • johnrobertson834 February 22, 2018 / 12:26 pm

      Thanks for keeping me in the loop. If I had to listen myself it might be a noose rather than a loop!


  2. Ludo Thierry February 22, 2018 / 1:26 pm

    Hi guys – like CB I also heard the radio Jockland piece this morning. CB is quite correct – there seemed to have been a subtle tonal shift – very much so from KF. I’m trying not to get my hopes raised but it does seem that we may be moving into a period where the ‘competing elites’ have fractured into ‘warring elites’. These moments are not too frequent and provide real opportunities for a well prepared, well disciplined popular movement to genuinely apply People Power and extract some progressive ‘change’ by lending their support to one faction or the other to settle the arguments one way or the other. I’m not saying that point has been reached – but it is closer than it has been for a considerable time. UKEXIT is the process that continues to preclude the competing elite factions to settle things despite their clear awareness of the prospect of People Power getting a bit of a look in for once. Here in Scotland we have to remain completely disciplined and ready to push HARD when the circumstances dictate.

    As John is constantly drawing to our attention (with hard evidence) – there is one heck of a lot at stake. The initial ‘Scottish Oil Rush’ wholly funded Thatcher’s strange social experiments. The mature revenue streams then allowed Blair, Brown and Cameron’s coalition to strut their stuff whilst keeping the elites happy with all their extra goodies. The ‘2nd Oil Rush’ cannot be squandered in the same useless fashion. Come on Scotland – Stay focussed, stay disciplined, back SNP/YES and the next century can be a very different place indeed.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Alasdair Macdonald. February 22, 2018 / 3:18 pm

      I, too, heard the interview to which Clydebuilt and Ludo refer, and, there were also references to the four Hard Brexiteer MPs from the Ruth Davidson Party, who have diverged from her somewhat wavering line with regard to support for CU and SM and her ‘support’ for Mrs May. Interestingly the speakers also highlighted the pretty strong position adopted by Mr Adam Tomkins with regard to devolution and Brexit.

      Increasingly, Labour figures are beginning to ask, ‘What position DOES Labour actually hold with regard to Brexit?’. Insofar as we can work out what Mr Leonard’s position is – he seems to support Mr Corbyn – but clearly almost all Labour MSPs are REMAINERS. Since most of them actually supported Mr Sarwar, then this is further evidence of the distance between Mr Leonard and his Holyrood Team.

      Since Mr Sarwar faced the appalling racism from some within Labour at the time of his candidature for the leadership he has formed a cross party anti racist group at Holyrood – he and Humza Yusaf, appear to speak with one voice on this issue – and has not uttered any antiSNP words. Some statements from Monica Lennon, have indicated (albeit in fudged terms) some possible common ground with SNP and Greens. So, maybe, a slow realignment is taking place, to protect devolution and to protect the humane policy approach being pursued in Scotland.

      Of course the BBC Scotland continues to plug the failing Scotland line with a report about the literacy levels of 16 year olds. This was wilfully misinterpreted. The report actually asked 16 year olds what kind of fiction they chose to read for personal reasons. Some of the books chosen were rated as being able to be read by 13 year olds. Now, of course, we are all pretty eclectic in our reading choices – I do not always choose books that have reading levels suitable for 70 year-olds. Where the wilful mispresentation came was in shouting that this showed ‘Scottish 16 year olds have the literacy levels of 13 year-olds’. NAW IT DISNAE!! The research was carried out by a private company, by a Professor at Dundee U. He and an author who works in Scottish schools regularly debated the issue and she spiritedly refuted his arguments. She was also backed up by vox pops of a number of 16 year olds who were asked about what they read. I felt that the Professor did not argue his case well, but made sweeping generalities. So, it was a kind of mixed bag from the BBC. The headline was a clear SCOTLAND STILL SHITE assertion, but the rest of the programme was much more nuanced and insightful. Maybe some of the staff of the BBC are beginning to realise that they have to do journalist jobs.

      As a contrast have a look at the recent Daily Politics interview by Andrew Neill of a Tory Minister regarding the lies being told by other Tory minister’s abot Jeremy Corbyn and treachery. We all know exactly where Mr Neill’s political support lies, but in this case he acted as a proper journalist. He did not miss the Tory and hit the wall – he kneed him in the goolies, pit the heid oan him, gi’ed him the malkie and left him fit only for the A&E in Paisley’s RAH!! This is how proper interviewing should take place. Mr Neill had done his homework and placed independently derived evidence in support of his case and was very pointed in his questions. The usual BBC Scotland interview simply reads from the press release from, these days, mainly the Tories, but sometimes Labour or a Labour aligned trade union.

      Liked by 1 person

    • johnrobertson834 February 22, 2018 / 4:32 pm

      Yes, yes, If the UK/Scottish elites do split over Brexit, it is an opportunity.


  3. Ludo Thierry February 22, 2018 / 6:01 pm

    Further to the ‘split’ elites theme did people notice the Westminster vote last night regarding Clause 10 ‘Review of retrospective VAT refunds for the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service and the Scottish Police Authority’?

    This provided an opportunity for Scotland’s vital Emergency Services to recoup the VAT money that has been stolen by the UK Treasury since the Scotland-wide Services were established – which represents a very considerable sum (if my memory serves I’m recalling a cumulative figure of approx. £140M). At the last Budget the Tories made great play of abandoning these absurd VAT charges and implementing a ‘de-rating’ (equivalent to that enjoyed by the Emergency Services operating everywhere else within the UK) – but didn’t backdate the change. In particular, the UK Govt reported that they had been ‘convinced’ of the justice of this claim by the powerful rhetoric and representations of Col. Davidson’s 13 MPs.

    Fast forward to last night. Col. Davidson’s 13 became (yet again) an ‘Unlucky 13’ for Scotland. SNP voted for the amendment, Labour (including their North Brit branch MPs) voted for it too. Col. Davidson’s troopers voted en masse against Clause 10. As did Fluffy’s new bag carrier Alberto Costa. As did The Col’s reported Westminster mentor Nicholas Soames. We are left pondering what, precisely, The Col’s views were on this matter. It would seem to any rational person that a supposed ‘leader’ of a supposed ‘Scottish’ Tory party would move heaven and earth to enable the Scottish Parlt to get hold of the multiple millions of £s stolen from it – and find useful ways to invest it in Scotland’s Police and Fire and Rescue Services. However – we are dealing with britnats – not rational people – so who knows what The Col. wanted to happen? What we do know (indisputably) is that the ‘Scottish’ tory MPs voted en bloc WITH Theresa May (and Rees Mogg) and AGAINST Scotland. It is vital that this further example of their reckless endangerment of Scotland is loudly bruited to every airt and pairt of our land.

    (Oh – in case you’re wondering – I couldn’t see any of the 3 ‘Scottish’ Lib Dems even turning up for the vote. Given their constant vendetta against Scotland’s Police and Fire and Rescue Services why do I not find that surprising?). Hansard voting record below:



  4. Ludo Thierry February 22, 2018 / 6:26 pm

    A further piece of really good news reported on Common Space. Bear with me:

    During Project Fear the ‘poster’ Trades Union for the britnats was USDAW (UK Gen. Sec = John Hammond). USDAW officially affiliated to Better Together and made (substantial) financial contributions to the NO campaign. Hammond posted a letter to all 45.000 Scotland based members, and also sent a further email – telling members to Vote No – even if they were ‘unsure’. At the USDAW conference they invited only Darling to address them and closed down all real debate.

    Fast forward to today. We have the excellent news that a veteran campaigner called Richie Venton has been elected to the USDAW (UK) NEC. Richie is a founding member of the SSP and was an active member of Trades Unionists For YES during the Indyref. From his interview he seems brimful of ideas and energy.

    My strong guess would be that – at the UKEXIT Indyref – ultrabrit John Hammond might not have quite such an easy job of lining USDAW up with Theresa, Boris, Moggie and Co. in Project Fear 2.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Clydebuilt February 22, 2018 / 7:28 pm

    John. . . You’ve done your stint of monitoring Reporting Scotland, I don’t know how you managed it I haven’t been able to stomach that programme for years. . . .

    Keep on Keepin On

    Liked by 1 person

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