Talking-up Scotland

In 2017, Scotland’s exports rose by 19.2% to £28.8 billion widening our trade surplus and maintaining our record of having an overall surplus at least as far back as 2014. There are around 7 000 exporters in Scotland with an average value of £4.2 million.

Judging by the graph above, London’s deficit alone is nearly £50 billion per year and the South of England as a whole seems to be running a deficit of around £100 billion!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/january2018

I sometimes read that a trade surplus is not always that good a thing. I’m no economist, thank dog, but I doubt that a prolonged trade deficit I sustainable over the long term. Here’s a more plausible explanation:

‘Most countries try to create trade policies that encourage a trade surplus. They consider a surplus a favorable trade balance because it’s like making a profit as a country. Nations prefer to sell more products and receive more capital for their residents. It translates into a higher standard of living. Their companies also gain a competitive advantage in expertise by producing all the exports. They hire more workers, reducing unemployment and generating more income.’

https://www.thebalance.com/balance-of-trade-definition-favorable-vs-unfavorable-3306261

Who has the biggest trade surplus and are they pleased? Germany at $287 billion and Yes. See this:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-trade/germany-trumps-asia-with-worlds-largest-current-account-surplus-idUSKBN1F50WP

 

 

From the Scottish Business News Network yesterday:

‘The first ever direct flights from Scotland to China will begin in June. The ground-breaking announcement will see Hainan Airlines flights to Beijing beginning from 12^th June, flying 4 weekly on an Airbus A330-300. It’s part of an innovative flight model which links in three capital cities – Beijing, Edinburgh and Dublin. The route will fly from Beijing to Dublin and then onto Edinburgh and then back to Beijing on Thursdays and Sundays, flying to Edinburgh and then Dublin and then back to Beijing on Tuesdays and Saturdays. It marks the successful culmination of Edinburgh Airport’s partnership working with colleagues in China to attract these routes to Scotland in a move which will benefit the country’s economy, culture and

https://sbnn.co.uk/2018/03/15/first-direct-flights-from-scotland-to-china-to-begin/

Evidence of the appeal of Scotland to Chinese consumers and tourists has been apparent for some time now and was reported here in:

Massive increase in Chinese visitors to Edinburgh NOT attributed to weak pound and attracted by ‘Strongman skirt parties’

After 45% increase in Whisky exports to China, they cut the tariffs by 10%. Eh?

China increases imports of Scottish oil from 8 to 38 million barrels in only 4 months

While some, especially hypocritical Tories, have expressed concerns about China’s human rights record, it’s difficult to take these seriously as ‘we’ embrace Saudi Arabia. I do have some concerns myself but then I have concerns about the UK’s human rights record too as the RAF bomb urban/civilian areas in Iraq and Syria. Further, there are some important factors not much shared in our media which might moderate the concerns about China. See:

Why Nicola Sturgeon has no reason to protest to China about Tibet

A report from the transport watchdog, Transport Focus, found a high level of satisfaction with bus journeys across Scotland. Of the national operators, National Express got the highest score of 93% while Stagecoach got the lowest at 88%.

The Confederation of Passenger Transport Scotland (CPT)’s director said:

‘Passengers have once again given a ringing endorsement to their local bus services.  An average satisfaction score of 89% is an extraordinary result and one many other industries can only aspire to achieve.  It is also worth noting that once again Scottish operators have recorded levels of satisfaction amongst the highest across the UK.’

http://d3cez36w5wymxj.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/14203607/BPS-Summary-Report-Report-Mar-2018.pdf

 

Desperate to get a victory over the SNP, no matter what kind, the Scottish opposition parties have combined to overturn the Football Act claiming their motivation was o protect some fans from become unfairly criminalised for just singing songs about ethnic cleansing and killing your neighbours if they go to the wrong kind of church. Where’s the harm in that, eh?

That this was a cynical act taken regardless of the evidence in support of the act, is clear from two facts well-known to the opposition – the widespread popularity and the effectiveness of the act. However, the Herald headlined the story as if it were some glorious victory over the forces of evil:

‘Historic moment for Scotland as controversial Football Act scrapped’

and wrote:

‘Controversial legislation aimed at tackling sectarianism at football has been overturned in a historic moment for Scotland.  Onlookers broke into applause as MSPs voted to repeal the Offensive Behaviour at Football Act by a majority of just two. The move marks the first time an entire Act has been scrapped – with no legislation to replace it – since the Scottish Parliament was reconvened in 1999.’

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16090656.Historic_moment_for_Scotland_as_controversial_Football_Act_scrapped/

‘A historic moment for Scotland?’ I’m not so sure it was for or in the interests of the vast majority in Scotland. From the National in June 2015:

‘A YouGov poll revealed that 83 per cent of Scots support laws to tackle offensive behaviour at football matches and 80 per cent of those polled directly support the Offensive Behaviour and Threatening Communications (Scotland) Act. Repealing the Act was one of the early pledges made by Jim Murphy, the soon-to-be-former Labour leader, who felt it criminalised ordinary supporters. That he was out of touch with public opinion on this issue is demonstrated by the fact that a ScotCen research study has found that 90 per cent of football fans found songs which glorify or celebrate the loss of life or serious injury offensive.’

http://www.thenational.scot/news/14898134.Public_backs_controversial_offensive_behaviour_laws/

On its own, the above evidence of the overwhelming public support and support among fans too, for the Act, exposes the naked political point-scoring and infantile disregard for the wider public interest, of the opposition parties.

However, there is more. The Act has already been shown to be effective. An independent evaluation was published in 2015:

‘Since June 2013, researchers at the University of Stirling and ScotCen Social Research have been carrying out an extensive evaluation of the Offensive Behaviour and Threatening Communications Act, hearing evidence from a wide range of stakeholders including fans, match commanders, police, prosecutors and football club representatives.

The evaluation found evidence from a range of sources that offensive behaviour at football matches has decreased since the legislation was introduced [by 46% in 2 years], and strong support from police and prosecutors who said the laws had brought a new ‘simplicity and clarity’ to dealing with incidents.’

With particular regard to offenses related to football matches, official statistics on hate crimes, 2014/2015, included the following:

‘Fewer charges occurred in football stadiums in 2014-15 than in 2013-14 and 2012-13. There were 89 charges in stadiums in 2014-15, compared to 109 charges in 2013-14 and 165 in 2012-13. 42 charges included behaviour that was derogatory towards Roman Catholicism, a decrease from 46 charges last year and 88 charges in 2012-13. Six charges included behaviour derogatory towards Protestantism, a decrease from 11 last year and 16 charges in 2012-13.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/offensive-behaviour-act-evaluation-published

Pathetic self-serving sociopaths? The opposition politicians that is.

(c) tele-matrix.de

Here are the results of yesterday’s, telephone-based Ipsos-Mori poll:

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Don’t Knows excluded)

Yes 48% 
No 52% 

Scottish voting intentions for next Westminster election:

• Conservatives 25%
• Greens 4%
• Labour 26%
• Liberal Democrats 6%
• SNP 39%

These remain reasonably optimistic figures, pre-campaign, but see also these reservations, from YouGov, about telephone interviews based on evidence from the opinion polls which got the EU Referendum so wrong:

‘There’s a big difference between the online and telephone polls on the EU referendum – with online polls showing the sides neck-and neck and telephone polls showing about a 15% gap in favour of ‘remain’. Why? It’s striking that both methodologies right across the different polling companies give about the same number to the ‘leave’ campaign, around 40%. The difference is in the ‘remain’ number, which is around 52%, from the telephone polls, but only 40% for online polls.’

Commonly, telephone surveys generate conservative, negative or status quo returns. Respondents are more likely to say no to a question about a big change of some kind.

Further, not everyone has a landline to be called on. Roughly 20%, especially younger and economically disadvantaged citizens, do not have one, so cannot be surveyed, and we know that the young and the less-well-off are more likely to prefer independence.

 So, based on the above evidence, this 48% might well be an underestimate, and 2 or 3% either way would make a big difference.

Sources:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/commentary-what-explains-difference-between-phone-/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/commentary-what-explains-difference-between-phone-/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/386778/share-of-calls-enabled-landlines-in-uk-hoseholds/

• Figures adjusted after correction by reader Matt

Remember the OBR was a George Osborne creation and that it regularly forecast doom and despair for an independent Scotland back in 2014. These same forecasts were widely and gleefully used by our Unionist media. Here’s how Energy Voice reported today’s story:

‘A new report predicts UK oil and gas revenues will be £400million higher every year from now until 2023 – in the latest sign that the North Sea is on the mend. In its fiscal and economic outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said its revenue forecast had been revised upwards due to higher oil prices, increased production and lower costs. The Oil and Gas Authority recently lifted its long-term forecast for North Sea production by 2.8billion barrels of oil equivalent to 11.7billion barrels.’

They then predict tax revenues of £1 billion for each of the next five years.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/166095/obr-pushes-north-sea-revenue-projections/

Here’s how I do the sums:

11.7 billion barrels at $60 per barrel, at least, equal total revenue of $702 billion. Production costs estimated by the BP chief, last year, to be no more than $15 per barrel equal $175 billion. So that’s $527 billion or £376.83 billion, in profit, before wages and shared dividends yet the OBR thinks we only get £5 billion in tax revenue for the first five years. *So that would be £34 billion by 2050. Isn’t that a bit low? UK corporation tax at 20% would give us more than £75 billion. What’s going on here?

It will be interesting to hear if the Chancellor uses the same measly figure and if it’s challenged at all.

The Princeton Review has ranked Abertay University, in Dundee, the best in Europe for undergraduate computer games course and 19^th in the World.

From Insider today:

‘Abertay , which launched the world’s first computer games degree in 1997, was ranked top for undergraduate courses and within the highest dozen for postgraduate degrees. Globally, the university was ranked 19th in the world for undergraduate degrees. ‘

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/abertay-university-game-design-masters-12185122

This follows a number of accolades for both of the Dundee universities and for the city in the last year or so. See:

Teckle! Dundee Good News Special

It’s Dundee hitting the headlines for all the right reasons and not for the first time this year

Dundee second-best city in UK to start a new business is first with bear protection. No not against some Rangers fans, the Polar ones

‘University of Dundee is UK’s highest ranked institution for influencing innovation’

Glasgow only UK city to make New York Times top ten cities to visit. Dundee makes CNN’s most design-savvy list with Tokyo and Paris

(c) plusbus

From Insider magazine, again, today:

‘Scottish capital scores high on economic output and the aspirations of its workforce. Bottom of Form  Top of Form

Bottom of Form

Edinburgh has been ranked first among its peers in a new report on Europe’s “cities of influence”, with strong marks for its economic output and the availability of skilled staff. The Cities of Influence report by Colliers International is based on a variety of factors such as occupier attractiveness, availability of talent, quality of life, economic output and productivity. Edinburgh was the highest-ranking UK city in terms of “employee aspirational” factors.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/edinburgh-tops-list-most-influential-12178565

Good news about Edinburgh is appearing almost weekly. See these recent examples:

‘Edinburgh among the best for equality’

Best UK city for inward investment is Edinburgh

More bad news for Ruth and Kezia: ‘Edinburgh is most active UK city for innovation outside London’

Regular readers will know that comparable good news about other parts of Scotland is also pretty commonly reported here. See:

‘Glasgow named top convention spot for a record 12th year in a row’

It’s Dundee hitting the headlines for all the right reasons and not for the first time this year

 

In the Guardian today:

‘Nearly two-thirds of doctors believe patient safety has deteriorated over the past year and nine out of 10 have experienced staff shortages, a survey of 1,500 NHS consultant physicians in England, Wales and Northern Ireland has revealed. The Royal College of Physicians (RCP), which carried out the study, said the results exposed a health system “pushed to its limit” in which doctors felt they could not deliver what was asked of them.’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/mar/12/patient-safety-getting-worse-say-two-thirds-of-nhs-doctors

This is a rare example of precise language in a journalistic report on ‘the’ NHS in the UK. Often, in the past, we have read of a crisis in England with a headline implying that is in the whole UK. However, though the above survey clearly excludes NHS Scotland, the Guardian report has nothing to say about that exclusion.

Measuring patient safety, empirically and objectively, across a complex system like the NHS would be almost impossible so the RCP report is based on the subjective, but expert, impressions of 1 500 doctors.  That there is no comparable report on the Scottish system, to be found (I looked and looked), we have to assume that there is no comparable crisis there to be reported. This is evident in other reports, also. See, for example this from Donald Berwick, President Emeritus and Senior Fellow, Institute for Healthcare Improvement, in 2015:

‘The Scottish Patient Safety Programme, marks Scotland as a leader, second to no nation on earth, in its commitment to reducing harm to patients, dramatically and continually.’

http://www.ihi.org/Engage/Initiatives/Completed/ScottishPatientSafety/Pages/default.aspx

Also, from the above report:

‘NHS Scotland is the first health service in the world to adopt a national approach to improving patient safety. That is why acute hospitals across the country are taking part in a dedicated drive to ensure that patients receive even safer care.’  

Further evidence can be seen a 2017 Nuffield Trust report, saying:

‘Scotland’s NHS has lessons for the rest of the UK. Scotland’s well thought-through system of improving patient safety and quality of care works by engaging frontline staff in the process, and importantly the country has stuck with that approach rather than chopping and changing every couple of years. There are many lessons from Scotland’s NHS for the other nations of the UK, in particular the way it seeks to improve the quality and safety of care given to patients, and the fact that it trusts and equips clinical staff to drive that improvement.’  

https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/scotland-s-nhs-has-lessons-for-the-rest-of-the-uk

Please share this widely. Maybe send it to BBC Scotland?

For the year ending 31 March 2017 but only published 6 March 2018, the uptake of AAA screening of men tested before the age of 66 and a quarter was 84%, well above the 70% target. All of Scotland health boards achieved 80% or higher. The only negative is that, in more deprived areas the level of screening was lower though always above the 70% target.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Public-Health/Publications/2018-03-06/2018-03-06-AAA-Publication-Summary.pdf?82267397643

Uptake in England was only 79.5% and in Wales it was only 80.1%. Northern Ireland came closest with a figure of 83%

https://phescreening.blog.gov.uk/2017/01/20/abdominal-aortic-aneurysm-screening-across-the-uk/

The importance of the AAA take-up is made clear in this statement:

‘AAAs usually cause no symptoms, but if they burst they are extremely dangerous and usually fatal. Around 8 out of 10 people with a ruptured AAA either die before they reach hospital or don’t survive surgery. Early detection is important because once identified AAAs can be monitored or treated, greatly reducing the chances of the aneurysm causing serious problems in the future.’

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2016/01/06/abdominal-aortic-aneurysm-aaa-screening-programme-an-important-milestone/