Here are the results of yesterday’s, telephone-based Ipsos-Mori poll:
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Don’t Knows excluded)
Scottish voting intentions for next Westminster election:
- Conservatives 25%
- Greens 4%
- Labour 26%
- Liberal Democrats 6%
- SNP 39%
These remain reasonably optimistic figures, pre-campaign, but see also these reservations, from YouGov, about telephone interviews based on evidence from the opinion polls which got the EU Referendum so wrong:
‘There’s a big difference between the online and telephone polls on the EU referendum – with online polls showing the sides neck-and neck and telephone polls showing about a 15% gap in favour of ‘remain’. Why? It’s striking that both methodologies right across the different polling companies give about the same number to the ‘leave’ campaign, around 40%. The difference is in the ‘remain’ number, which is around 52%, from the telephone polls, but only 40% for online polls.’
Commonly, telephone surveys generate conservative, negative or status quo returns. Respondents are more likely to say no to a question about a big change of some kind.
Further, not everyone has a landline to be called on. Roughly 20%, especially younger and economically disadvantaged citizens, do not have one, so cannot be surveyed, and we know that the young and the less-well-off are more likely to prefer independence.
So, based on the above evidence, this 48% might well be an underestimate, and 2 or 3% either way would make a big difference.