Support for independence and SNP still strong and Ipsos-Mori poll methods may cause them to understate it

JLkleinTelematrix_03092014ks_8610-845x684

(c) tele-matrix.de

Here are the results of yesterday’s, telephone-based Ipsos-Mori poll:

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Don’t Knows excluded)

Yes 48% 
No 52%
 

Scottish voting intentions for next Westminster election:

  • Conservatives 25%
  • Greens 4%
  • Labour 26%
  • Liberal Democrats 6%
  • SNP 39%

These remain reasonably optimistic figures, pre-campaign, but see also these reservations, from YouGov, about telephone interviews based on evidence from the opinion polls which got the EU Referendum so wrong:

‘There’s a big difference between the online and telephone polls on the EU referendum – with online polls showing the sides neck-and neck and telephone polls showing about a 15% gap in favour of ‘remain’. Why? It’s striking that both methodologies right across the different polling companies give about the same number to the ‘leave’ campaign, around 40%. The difference is in the ‘remain’ number, which is around 52%, from the telephone polls, but only 40% for online polls.’

Commonly, telephone surveys generate conservative, negative or status quo returns. Respondents are more likely to say no to a question about a big change of some kind.

Further, not everyone has a landline to be called on. Roughly 20%, especially younger and economically disadvantaged citizens, do not have one, so cannot be surveyed, and we know that the young and the less-well-off are more likely to prefer independence.

 So, based on the above evidence, this 48% might well be an underestimate, and 2 or 3% either way would make a big difference.

Sources:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/commentary-what-explains-difference-between-phone-/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/commentary-what-explains-difference-between-phone-/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/386778/share-of-calls-enabled-landlines-in-uk-hoseholds/

Advertisements

7 thoughts on “Support for independence and SNP still strong and Ipsos-Mori poll methods may cause them to understate it

  1. Ludo Thierry March 14, 2018 / 7:29 pm

    Saw this in Stornoway Gazette. Shows the lasting legacy of desire for involvement in public policy arena/activities generated by the festival of democratic politics that was the YES campaign in Indyref1. Roll on the brexit Indyref and we’ll really see the appetite for a new democracy in Scotland take off again:

    Highest number of candidates for the Stornoway Trust in 40 years
    There are 22 candidates altogether – more than twice as many candidates as stood for the Trust in the last election in 2015 – and three of them are women.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. macgilleleabhar March 15, 2018 / 4:25 pm

    On the premise that the past shapes the present and the present shapes the future things are different now to the years 2011 to 2014 as at that time independence was in the background. Now thanks,in no small way, to the Unionists obsessive fear of losing it has been kept in the forefront since the referendum.
    To me this means that instead of an obscure concept with less than 30% support we are within 2to3 % of winning before campaigners hit the streets or the dam of negative facts about Brexit bursts.
    On another tack the future we want plays an important part on how our thoughts are shaped. “Take back control” is an emotive phrase that could easily be applied to Scotland’s future meaning that we at present hold the well-being of future of generations in our hands as seldom before.
    Stitching my thoughts together I believe that we are in a better starting position than in2011 but now with more urgency to stay as part of Europe returning to an independent democracy controlling our own destiny.

    Like

  3. Alasdair Macdonald. March 15, 2018 / 8:25 pm

    I saw more detailed figures on the breakdown of the data by age cohort. Every age cohort except the 54+ had a majority for YES, yet it overwhelmed the other groups to give a net majority for NO. This suggests to me that perhaps this cohort might have been overrepresented in the sample. That would support your thesis.

    I know that, generally, the old codgers – GUILTY, M’LUD – vote in larger numbers than the other groups, but does the weighting attributable to that really cause it to overwhelm the others? In 2017 GE, part of the reason for Labour’s revival, in England, was the greatly increased turnout in younger age groups. In Scotland, the changes were more complex, but, young people were still more likely than before to turn out.

    Finally, like so many others, I really cannot discern what might be the truth behind the Salisbury poisoning, but, I am sure it is either being manufactured or being opportunistically manipulated to evoke feelings of ‘patriotism’ i.e. ‘Britishism’ as well as to divert attention from other things such as Brexit, but, not just that. I do not know the reason, but is Mrs May trying to create the conditions for another GE, which by playing the patriotic card and only that, she might regain a majority. She has succeeded in resurrecting the antiCorbyn hyenas in the PLP. Mr Corbyn’s response to the Salisbury incident was entirely consistent with the principled position he has held and expressed for decades. (Incidentally, I agree with Mr Corbyn’s position).

    That final paragraph is entirely speculative because of the fog the Government, intelligence service and media lackeys have created. We need to wait, on the alert, for it to clear.

    Like

  4. johnrobertson834 March 16, 2018 / 11:06 am

    Too many interested parties, state and organised crime, for us to have strong opinion. No holding back the Great British Nationalists though. Send a type something frigate to St Petersburgh. What none are seaworthy?

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s