Talking-up Scotland

(c) North Edinburgh News

Just to keep things in proportion as the increased costs of free personal care become the latest weapon in the anti-independence armoury, see this in the Scotsman today:

‘Free personal care funding in Scotland soars to £500 million. The sum spent on implementing the flagship policy at home rose from £267m in 2007/08 to £379 in 2016/17 in 2016/17.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/health/free-personal-care-funding-in-scotland-soars-to-500-million-1-4776454

That’s a 41.9% increase but we need to set it against inflation in the same period. See this:

‘According to the Office for National Statistics composite price index, prices in 2017 are 31.86% higher than prices in 2007.’

http://www.in2013dollars.com/2007-GBP-in-2017

So, the costs are increasing ahead of inflation but only by around 10% more.

In the same period, the number of over 65’s increased from 0.85 million to 1.01 million

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-estimates/mid-17/mid-year-pop-est-17-publication.pdf

So, that’s an increase of 17%.

OK, that is a reasonable concern here, but costs are by no means ‘soaring’ as the Scotsman would have it. We have to hope that Scotland can get full control of the economy, and of  immigration, to enable the growth required to pay for this.

 

(c) (Photographer: Matthew Lloyd/Bloomberg)

Oncemore* (a fine 10-year malt), the Bank of Scotland report of Scottish tourism underperforming, gleefully covered by BBC Scotland yesterday, seems to be contradicted by other evidence.

Figures published yesterday by the Scottish Whisky Association suggest record growth in 2017. You’re probably wondering why it’s taken them so long to report this. I am too.

There were nearly 1.9 million visits to visitor centres across Scotland in 2017. That was 11.4% up on 2016 and, if you love bigger figures for headlines, as BBC Scotland often do, especially if they suggest a crisis in NHS Scotland or in Police Scotland, it was a rise of 45% from 2010!

This is by no means a rare and unexpected phenomenon. Whisky tourism has featured before here. See:

Whisky tourism boom expected to add to record year for Scottish tourism in 2018

Footnote: The Oncemore (pronounced wunsssmohr) from the island of Tipsay, takes its name from the popular Gaelic socio-linguistic concept of that unexpected opportunity for intimacy, usually in one’s formative years, which leaves a lasting memory. For Scots monolinguists, it’s better known as the ‘first cormorant’ or something like that, I gather.

(c) http://onthisspot.ca

I think it’s fair to describe a 36% increase to £317 million as ‘massive’.

From the Scottish Business New Network, yesterday:

‘Visits and spending by international tourists in Glasgow rose to its highest level on record in 2017. The Travel Trends 2017 data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the number of international visitors travelling to Scotland’s largest city rose by nearly a fifth (19%) to 787,000, while expenditure increased by more than a third (36%) to £319m. Glasgow’s growth outperformed the Scottish average – at a national level visits were up 17% to 3.2 million while spend rose 23% to £2.3 billion.’

https://sbnn.co.uk/2018/07/31/record-year-for-international-visitors-to-glasgow-sees-visitor-numbers-rise-by-19/

Increased tourism in Glasgow and across Scotland has featured regularly here, including these recent examples:

Glasgow and Edinburgh push London into third place in tourism hotspots survey

Scottish tourism growth outpaces that in UK

Glasgow wins two first places in global tourism awards and comes 4th out of 50!

Tourism spending in Scotland surges ahead of UK figure

Strangely, in the light of the above, the Bank of Scotland survey, reported by BBC Scotland, yesterday, noted:

‘Tourism fell flat in the quarter, but a net third of companies said they were expecting growth during the remainder of 2018.’

This highlights, I think, the dangers of reporting single surveys as news, especially negative ones of the kind our Yoon media love so much, without providing some recent historical context from other surveys to give a more reliable, dare I say, balanced picture.

While I’m sure perceptions of terrorist threat in Europe’s mainland cities will have been a factor in drawing tourists north to Scotland, I wonder if Glasgow’s transformation from, statistically, one of the most violent cities in Europe to one of the safest, in the last ten years, has been another. See this from the Guardian’s Complete University Guide in January 2018:

These are quite remarkable differences with the risk of violence in Scottish cities significantly lower than in all the other UK cities. Glasgow has a far lower rate of violence against the person than even the least violent of the English cities, Bath, Chichester and Winchester

https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/preparing-to-go/staying-safe-at-university/how-safe-is-your-city/

 

From the RBS Monitor and the Bank of Scotland business barometer, today, more good news on the general good health and optimism in Scotland’s business sector. Two extracts will suffice.

Royal Bank:

‘It’s very welcome news that Scottish businesses are reporting growth so far in 2018 and appear confident that they can maintain that momentum into the second half of the year.’

Bank of Scotland:

‘It found that Scottish businesses’ overall confidence saw a month-on-month drop of seven points to 17 per cent, dragged by their increased negativity about the UK economy. However, their optimism in their own prospects reached 31 per cent, two points higher than a month ago. Jane Clark-Hutchison, head of mid markets, Scotland, said that all in all the findings show “how resilient businesses are throughout Scotland”.’

Phew, how many good news reports can we take? We’ve already had:

See this Douglas? Business investment in Scotland up 250%!

Scottish Business Strength No.77: Small Scottish construction firms’ growth up 17%

Scottish small businesses still more confident than those in non-Scottish parts

Business activity soars to four-year high across manufacturing and service

Business confidence in Scotland soars by 24% while it sinks 29% in non-Scottish parts of UK

Scottish businesses more likely to be stable than those in rest of UK: News from a parallel universe unknown to our mainstream media

Scottish Government supports economy with new business rates unique in UK

Scottish business confidence higher than in any other region of UK

I’m getting suspicious. It can’t be this optimistic. I watch the BBC news and it seems much worse there.

.

 

Here’s the BBC Scotland headline today

‘RBS monitor: Cost pressures weighing on Scots firms’

Deeper in the text are the headlines we could have had:

‘Scottish exporters see strong pick-up in business.’

‘Most Scottish firms in particular report growth and confidence in future’

‘Scottish firms upbeat about their own prospects – but less optimistic about the UK economy’

Here’s what we got in the BBC report after the negative headline:

BUT ‘Cost pressures on Scottish firms have risen to their highest level for seven years, according to a report.

BUT The latest Royal Bank of Scotland business monitor found inflationary pressures were having “a significant impact” on their activities.

BUT Nearly two-thirds of all firms reported higher costs during the second quarter.

So, four statements in and many readers have gone, sighing into their cornflakes, before we see:

HOWEVER, the majority of more than 400 companies surveyed said they had experienced increased activity over the last three months.

HOWEVER, Firms said they expected the trend to continue for the rest of the year.

BUT Cost pressures were felt slightly more strongly in services (+63%) than in production industries (+50%), while tourism (+82%) and distribution (+70%) reported the highest pressures.

BUT More firms reported falling capital investment than rising expenditure.

HOWEVER, The survey indicated that Scottish exporters in particular saw a strong pick-up in business this year.

HOWEVER, It suggested weakening sterling and global growth acceleration had helped fuel the country’s economy during the first six months.

HOWEVER, The survey, conducted by the Fraser of Allander Institute, found that 23% of firms enjoyed an increase in export activity in the three months to June,

BUT, compared with 16% reporting a decline.

HOWEVER, The production sector led the way during the second quarter, with a net 11% reporting an increase in exports.

HOWEVER, Businesses were optimistic that the trend would continue, with a net 11% expecting exports to rise over the next six months.

HOWEVER, More than a third (35%) of firms reported an increase in the total volume of business during the last quarter, compared with 29% who witnessed a fall in activity.

HOWEVER, The balance of +7% represents a rise of six points on the first quarter.

HOWEVER, Growth was strongest in transport and communication, with a quarter (24%) reporting an increase. Manufacturing and finance and business services both enjoyed a net increase of 14%.

BUT, Tourism fell flat in the quarter, but a net third of companies said they were expecting growth during the remainder of 2018.

HOWEVER, New business volumes grew across all regions of Scotland, most strongly in west central Scotland (33%) and east central Scotland (26%).

BUT, Southern Scotland was weakest, with a net 6% of those surveyed reporting that new business volume had grown.

The BUTs have it!?

I know, it’s balance! That’s what real journalists do. But, headlining the negative take, opening with four more negative statements and finishing but-heavy – does that imbalance it?

That’s just our editorial judgement in deciding what the main points are. And, it reads better that way. And, we respect our readers intelligence and commitment to read the whole thing. See!!! Don’t criticise us, you ffffffffffffff wwwwwwwwwwwww bbbbbbbbbbb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We’re the BBC!!!!!!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-45012041

 

(c) BBC and Douglas Fraser:  I haven’t stored this image.  NB: Don’t shut me down like Wings.

 

From one of Douglas Fraser’s favourites, the Scottish Business News Network, today:

‘Scottish companies raised £21million in the second quarter of 2018 (April – June), two and a half times more than the previous quarter (£8.4million). New figures from KPMG’s Venture Pulse report, which highlights key trends, opportunities, and challenges facing the venture capital market, reveals healthcare and biotechnology companies were responsible for £17million of total investment in Scotland.’

https://sbnn.co.uk/2018/07/30/investment-in-scottish-companies-doubles-to-21m-in-q2/

As always, here are earlier reports on Scottish business, to widen the picture and to strengthen your optimism in the face of Douglas and team at Misreporting Scotland:

Scottish Business Strength No.77: Small Scottish construction firms’ growth up 17%

Scottish small businesses still more confident than those in non-Scottish parts

Business activity soars to four-year high across manufacturing and service

Business confidence in Scotland soars by 24% while it sinks 29% in non-Scottish parts of UK

Scottish businesses more likely to be stable than those in rest of UK: News from a parallel universe unknown to our mainstream media

Scottish Government supports economy with new business rates unique in UK

Scottish business confidence higher than in any other region of UK

Don’t hesitate to use these, Douglas.

In the Scotsman today:

‘Damning report reveals 38 children made homeless in Scotland each day’

Then, contradicting the headline somewhat, we read:

‘The scale of Scotland’s homelessness crisis has been described as “damning” after figures showed the equivalent of 38 children a day were left without somewhere permanent to live last year.’ Analysis by the charity Shelter Scotland revealed 14,075 children were in households assessed as being homeless in 2017-18 – the equivalent of six or seven pupils for every school.  On one day in March, 6,615 children were living in temporary accommodation – the fourth consecutive year in which the figure has risen, the charity said. It described the scale of child homelessness as “shocking” and said not having a permanent place to live can have “drastic” effects on young people.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/damning-report-reveals-38-children-made-homeless-in-scotland-each-day-1-4775565

I know, children in temporary accommodation is a tragic circumstance but the headline suggests bairns on the streets when actually they are in accommodation.

Headlines matter. For accuracy, it should have been

’38 children in temporary accommodation in Scotland each day.’

How much does this matter and who damned the Scotsman? OK it was me who did the damning, again, but it’s evidence-based damning. Research including that by Ulrich Ecker in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, in 2014, reported in the New Yorker, found that headlines can change how you read and understand the rest of the article:

‘By drawing attention to certain details or facts, a headline can affect what existing knowledge is activated in your head. By its choice of phrasing, a headline can influence your mindset as you read so that you later recall details that coincide with what you were expecting.’

Secondly, when the headline only subtly distorts, as was the case in the Scotsman, it is more damaging:

‘For conscientious readers and editors, Ecker’s findings across the two studies give cause for concern. First, misinformation appears to cause more damage when it’s subtle than when it’s blatant. We see through the latter and correct for it as we go.’ 

Thirdly, headlines can actually make it harder to remember the content of the full article:

‘The headline, it turns out, had done more than simply reframe the article. In the case of the factual articles, a misleading headline hurt a reader’s ability to recall the article’s details.’

https://www.newyorker.com/science/maria-konnikova/headlines-change-way-think

So, the Scotsman headline might leave you with the unpleasant image of 38 bairns on the street with nowhere to go.

Finally, the lack of context, in the article as a whole, can leave the reader thinking things are worse than they are. Homelessness is a smaller problem in Scotland than in the non-Scottish parts of the UK. See these for more detail:

As the number of the employed yet homeless soars in Southern England it is falling and much lower in Scotland

SNP Government to fund frontline efforts to help hardcore of street homeless while Ruth Davidson goes from baking show to celebrity list membership games and our media rats sniff the sewer air for SNP-bad aroma

 

From reader, Contrary, today:

From what I can see, Russia does have human rights abuses problems, but not much more than those provided by Westminster (the UN has stated this, repeatedly), and certainly not on a par with those of Saudi Arabia (and other countries), but I have not seen any sanctions on the Saudis or their country being encircled by NATO (who include large financial institutions). So hypocrisy and double standards abound.

So why pick on Russia? Well, the theory is that the financial big wigs need a war or crisis of some sort for ‘economic growth’ because they cannot sustain themselves without out and out austerity, which can be accepted through by patriotic need (my simplification and quite likely off the mark), and Russia is a good target.

How does this affect Scotland? It shows that media bias is not just simply anti-independence, that part is just one small, but frustrating, part of the whole of western media – in cahoots with big finance – in cahoots with big political players – in cahoots with security services. I just want people to take moment to think – we know how much we are being lied to and misdirected by our own ‘Scottish’ media, thanks to John and his fellow bloggers of the debunking myths ilk – so when you find yourself influenced by media rhetoric on international matters, it is likely we are not hearing the whole story – otherwise why try to influence our thinking? Thought control indeed.

Back to Bill Browder: he seems to me to be the epitome of what is wrong with much of our power structures, that one man is propped up by the establishment to sell extremist misinformation. He is allowed to influence our thinking without alternative views being put forward (sounds familiar), and influences those in power, perhaps because it is the ‘accepted view’. A documentary maker, enthusiastic about exposing human rights abuses in Putin’s Russia, decided to tell Browders heart rending story, but found himself at odds as some (all maybe) of the story didn’t stack up. I got the link from one of Craig’s tin foil hatters, but they say it may not last long as it has been removed from other platforms, so I hope a few people will take the opportunity to watch this (docu-drama) even though it’s a good 2.5 hours long. The producer has had problems getting it shown, even in Germany, whose state broadcaster partially funded it but then refused to broadcast it.

(The background is: Browder was an American (now British, allegedly to avoid tax), was involved in the asset-stripping in 90s and 00s Russia, was caught dodging taxes etc in the millions of dollars, was investigated (those people are now named, individually in the magnisky act) and found guilty, magnisky was Browder’s ‘lawyer’ and died in a Russian jail).

Documentary about Bill Browder:

(What, Denis Canavan’s maths pupils did much better than mine?)

(c) BBC

In the Northern Echo and the Evening Times, yesterday:

‘Under us, crime is at its lowest level’: SNP hails ‘staggering’ drop in youth conviction rate in Scotland. The number of young people convicted of a crime has fallen by 70% in the past decade in Scotland, new figures show.  Analysis of crime stats show convictions in the under 21 age group dropped from 27,832 in 2007 to 8,814 in 2017. Amongst males, the number of convictions has fallen from 24,526 to 7,596.’

http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/16383770.SNP_hail___39_staggering__39__70__drop_in_youth_crime_in_Scotland/

Now, Jack McConnell quit in August 2007 and since then youth crime has been falling fast. Jack was a maths teacher, in Alloa, before politics. Maybe it doesn’t add up, but could he have driven enough young people to crime with his brutal unforgiving assessments? Mind you, the removal of lead from petrol, not just in Alloa, has been connected with falling crime, globally. I suppose if Jack and Labour had stayed on (brrr) they’d be claiming at least some credit for this so it’s only fair that the SNP claim it now.

Though missing the wider story, the Daily Record has been prepared to note related success in South Lanarkshire. In can find no mention in BBC, STV, Scotsman or Herald. See this:

‘Despite the recent spate of knife crime, weapons offences in South Lanarkshire have decreased by more than 70 per cent in the past decade. In 2007/08, there were 17 cases of handling offensive weapons per 10,000 of the population in South Lanarkshire – which has fallen sharply to just five by 2016/17, a drop of 71 per cent.’

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/huge-drop-weapons-crime-across-12988607

Wait a minute, what ‘recent spate’? There hasn’t been a ‘spate’ of knife crime in Scotland for at least ten years. I think they mean ‘in London.’ See this, in the Guardian, from December 2017:

‘How Scotland reduced knife deaths among young people. Treating knife crime as a health issue has led to a dramatic drop in stabbings: of the 35 deaths of young people in Britain this year, none were in Scotland. In 2005, Strathclyde police set up a violence reduction unit (VRU) in an effort to address a problem that had made Glasgow, in particular, notorious.’

https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2017/dec/03/how-scotland-reduced-knife-deaths-among-young-people

Footnote: I know there is more crime than that convicted but a fall of this scale is unlikely to be due entirely to changes in policy.

Footnote 2: Years ago, I did research into the political awareness of 10-14 year-olds and found that few of them knew of Jack McConnell. Indeed, one who thought he did, wrote ‘Jack McGoogle!’

 

(c) pinterest

*See update from Legerwood below

From BBC Scotland today:

‘A key target for accident and emergency waiting times has not been met for a year, official figures show. The Scottish government’s benchmark for 95% of A&E patients to be either admitted, transferred or discharged in four hours was last met in the week ending 30 July 2017.’

It’s true. The last time was week-ending 30^th July 2017 when performance hit 95.5% of patients seen within 4 hours. BBC Scotland didn’t do this story last week or for most of June and July because the target had been met several times in those months in 2017. Indeed, this is the first opportunity in years! How frustrating that must have been. Imagine the drool as they watched and waited. How long had they been there, dripping hungrily in the long grass?

Of course, context is absent from their report, so we can’t really ask the question, ‘How bad is this?’, compared to performance elsewhere. Failure to meet targets might be bad or it might mean the targets are very high and aspirational. If they had been set cynically low for narrow political purposes, then they would have been easier to achieve.

The BBC seems to value context. See this from 2014:

‘What this shows is that while data is a useful way for journalists to access – and tell – stories, raw data alone will not suffice. Both context and analysis remain vitally important. Publishers overlook these elements at their peril.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/collegeofjournalism/entries/0408b877-8a7b-341e-9201-6b7907e6a628

So, why didn’t BBC Scotland have a quick look at the performance of our nearest neighbour, NHS England? Is this the answer?

‘The NHS in England says it will not this year hit the key target for treating or assessing 95% of patients in hospital Accident and Emergency departments within four hours. In a speech in March 2017, Mr Hunt said: “it is absolutely essential that we do get back to the 95% target” and he expected it to happen “in the course of the next calendar year”.  Yet now NHS England is talking in its planning guidance document of its “expectation” that the government would “roll forward” its goal.  It states that the majority of hospitals will only achieve the 95% standard by March 2019, with the NHS overall reaching that rate later in the year.’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-42943232

Who thinks they will make it by March 2019 as overseas workers flee Brexit Britain?

Finally, what was the average performance in the last year? An obvious and easy bit of context to provide surely? BBC Scotland don’t tell us. It won’t be published because it’s not a regular census point. It’s just the one BBC Scotland have been waiting excitedly for a long time. I can’t find it without adding all 52 scores up and dividing by…? Come on BBC Scotland! I’m not doing it but I’m guessing it’s above 90% and so, not much use in doing NHS Scotland down.