From Tory Lord Ashcroft Polls today based 1,019 adults in Scotland between 30 July and 2 August:
So, as clear cut as for Brexit at 52/48 but a bit closer on whether there should be another referendum in two years:
However, quite a dramatic result at 52:30 for, predicted in two years with, notably, Labour supporters coming round:
I see no sign of the size of the sample or any other methodology.
A BBC report today suggests ‘Deaf pupils ‘left behind’ by education system’ and goes on to state:
The charity also found that only 29% of deaf school-leavers go to university. The figure for hearing students is 45%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-49226769
As always, no comparative data is offered to help us put it into perspective and consider how bad it might be but a 2015 study in England by the Consortium for Research in Education reported that only 7% went on to ‘Higher Education.’
https://www.earfoundation.org.uk/files/download/1264
A 2018 report in the Independent suggested that only 9% attended the more prestigious Russell Group universities.
A report in the Guardian, 8 January 2018, stated:
Educational support for England’s 45,000 deaf children is “in complete disarray” with a dwindling number of specialist teachers struggling to meet growing demand, according to research. A report by the Consortium for Research into Deaf Education says the number of teachers of the deaf has been cut by 14% in the past seven years, at the same time as a 31% increase in the number of children requiring support.
No such criticism of the Scottish system has been made.
On the website (above) and on BBC 1 at 07:27 am, repeated throughout the morning we heard:
‘The Scottish Conservatives are calling on the spending watchdog Audit Scotland to carry out a full investigation into the construction of the new Hospital for Sick Children in Edinburgh. It comes after a ‘senior’ trade union official suggested part of the building may have to be pulled down due to drainage problems.’
This is essentially a Scottish Conservatives press release, written up for them by BBC staff and using unsubstantiated rumours from an agenda-driven trade unionist who is allowed to present himself, sickeningly, as a worried father of two speaking ‘as a parent.’ The report clearly contravenes BBC editorial guidelines in relying on a single unqualified source quoting other unnamed sources. The report may not breach Daily Mail editorial guidelines. This is the second day of a hospital scare story running across the Scottish MSM in a way comparable to the pigeon poo infection stories s earlier in the year. Yesterday, we were able to compare (on Twitter) the highly politicised reports calling for dramatic responses including the resignation of the Health Secretary and now tearing down the building with the situation over a Liverpool hospital scandal where only the contractor was attacked:
Then cheerily:
‘The number of companies in Scotland declared insolvent has risen by 46% in six months.’
This based on statistics for a period of only six months. Even a beginner knows that you cannot meaningfully identify trends in such a short period and typically 3 to 5 years is recommended. The importance of not reacting to short-term change is revealed these reports for 2018 and 2017:
63% fall in large business insolvencies as Scottish economy reveals strength
Then:
‘The cost of rural crime in Scotland has soared by more than 60% in just one year. That’s according to farm insurers NFU Mutual…..the steepest rise in Britain!’
First, this is ‘research’ by an insurance company. They have a clear aim to maximise their premiums. Second, as you can see above, the headline story is ‘Rural crime costs far less in Scotland than in the rest of the UK.’
Put together, these three stories can only have had a powerful downward effect on viewers’ morale. We know that low morale leads to conservatism in action including in voting for or against change.
For the umpteenth time, I’m not suggestion a conspiracy because one is not needed. The possible choices of which story to run passed before the editor’s mind like falling snowflakes. He or she then reached out for some and not for others, because they seemed, to them, to be the right ones and they seem to be good choices because of the editor’s subconscious processing developed over years in an education system and in a Scottish media world saturated with unionist preferences.
On Friday, Pauline McNeill (Glasgow) (SCLAB) asked the Scottish Government what the average daily population of HMP Castle Huntly has been in each year since 2010.
Here are the data:
Click to access WA20190802.pdf
Castle Huntly’s capacity is 285.
So, HMP Castle Huntly has been consistently below capacity for the last 10 years and has currently 34% spare capacity. This will have been a disappointment to McNeill who is working with the BBC and Liam McArthur on the latest Disclosure project, following on from their piece in January (below), provisionally title: ‘We don’t want the vote, we want smart TVs yah cnut!’
After their previous experience following the wrong lorry-load of wee calves all the way to Spain, the Disclosure Fiat has been fitted with satnav so they don’t end up at the wrong prison.
From Ludo:
Can’t help but wonder if Westminster pm Johnson’s backroom team are actively dumping Col. Davidson? Kenny Farquharson has a piece in the Times silkily arguing that the ‘Scottish’ tories are realising that Davidson’s time has come and gone in the changed circumstances of the Faragist challenge and the exodus of pragmatic Scottish centrist voters in the face of the blond mop-top’s rightist coup: Link and snippets below:
“Ruth Davidson’s biggest problem is not Boris Johnson. This may be hard to believe, given the uncomfortable stand-off between the two over Brexit. What could possibly be a bigger problem than holding a view — opposing a no-deal Brexit — that your party leader regards as a sacking offence?
But no, Mr Johnson is not the trickiest challenge facing the Scottish Tory leader. For that, she has only to look in the mirror. Ms Davidson’s biggest problem is that she is no longer the kind of leader her party needs.
What has changed? The Scottish Conservatives have mislaid about half of their voters, that is what has changed. And these voters have been lost to a party to the right of the Tories, not to the left.
And of course, her problems are not all to her right. Many moderate Tories appalled at Mr Johnson’s ascension are eyeing the exits, if they have not yet stampeded for the door. This is not the cautious, pragmatic, centrist party they signed up for. Who can blame them for wanting out, now that the Conservative Party of old is back, blue in tooth and claw and rinse?
Where does all this leave Project Ruth, you may ask? I was never one of those who bought into the notion of her as a putative first minister. It was far too outlandish. Even those who once subscribed to the idea now accept the moment has gone. Peak Ruth is long past. Project Ruth is over”.
Perhaps further early evidence of Johnson’s planned political assassination of Davidson can be found in the ConservativeHome website survey of tory party members regarding their relative ‘satisfaction ratings’ of the new cabinet (and some others – including Davidson); Link and snippet below:
Javid pips Johnson and Rees-Mogg to the top of the podium in our first Cabinet League Table of the new Government
ConservativeHome net satisfaction ratings for cabinet (and others): (Source: ConservativeHome survey of Party members, July 2019)
Alister Jack = 31.8
Ruth Davidson = 14.8
Davidson in the doldrums. The Scottish Conservative leader has previously been relatively shielded from the ups and downs of the Cabinet, often chalking up podium positions as she focused her fire on the SNP. She is currently the lowest-ranked politician in the entire table, most likely fallout from her highly-publicised split with the Prime Minister and hostility to No Deal.
Note how the previously unknown Alister ‘Union’ Jack who enjoys Johnson’s blessings has a rating which towers over long-time media darling ‘BBC’ Davidson’s rating. Such a very rapid and major shift in popularity within the tory party membership suggests (to me at any rate) that the Johnson machine is going all out to politically undermine and decapitate Davidson – These Eton types play hardball and Davidson consistently briefed against the bottle blond – but lacked the political skills (and base) to be effective. (Alas poor Ruthie – we in Scotland kent her well – far too well even).
It really is too close to call these days. From Ipsos MORI based on a sample of 119 with fieldwork on 26th to 30th July:
Click to access ipsos_mori_july_2019_political_monitor.pdf
From YouGov last week, with 147 Scots and fieldwork on 23rd and 24th July:
Click to access TimesResults_VI_190724_w.pdf
As you might expect with small samples, results fluctuate, but SNP dominance is a given after more than 20 sub-polls putting them at over 40%. Equally consistent, despite single digit variation, has been the complete lack of evidence of any Swinson, Davidson or Leonard boost and their almost certain battering, as Reporting Scotland liked to say today about the Scottish economy.
In the Scottish Parliament yesterday:
Alex Cole-Hamilton (Edinburgh Western) (Scottish Liberal Democrats): To ask the Scottish Government how much is being allocated to each NHS board from the £1.7 million it has provided to reduce childhood obesity levels.
Click to access WA20190801.pdf
You can see the answer at the link above. For the life of me, I’ve no idea why he wasted time on this but it gives us the opportunity to remind everyone of the progress being made in Scotland and only here.
Children and young people across Scotland will benefit from funding of £1.7 million to support health boards deliver new standards for weight management services. The investment comes after NHS Health Scotland published standards for weight management services for under 18-year-olds, to ensure quality and equal access to provision across the country. The funding is part of the Scottish Government’s ambition to halve childhood obesity by 2030 and significantly reduce diet-related health inequalities.
https://news.gov.scot/news/additional-funding-for-diet-and-healthy-weight-services
This is a third initiative which is expected to add to the effects of previous examples which have produced results putting Scotland on a more positive path to that being experienced in England and Wales where the obesity ‘crisis’ shows little sign of being dealt with.
Recent per-reviewed research suggesting that the obesity problem in Scotland is being reduced by Scottish Government action and this in turn casts doubt on their conclusions about cancer here.
TWO studies not based on mere estimates suggest very strongly that the prospects are different in Scotland:
First, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, reported in the Independent on 26th May 2018:
‘Under current trends it is predicted that 11 per cent of the population in Wales will be morbidly obese in 2035, roughly 340,000 adults, while Scotland is likely to plateau at about 5 per cent and England will rise to about 8 per cent.’
The researchers offer a surprisingly clear, confident and simple explanation for the significantly slower growth in Scotland – Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation:
‘The government put a massive push on developing a route map for how we can actually combat this. They put together resources from the NHS that were proving to be effective. They did put a lot of work into it.’
Second, From Growing Up in Scotland: Overweight and Obesity at Age 10:
‘Historic data from the survey shows that the prevalence of overweight [in Scotland] including obesity remained relatively stable between 1998 and 2016, fluctuating between 28% and 33%. However, in recent years levels of obesity have shown a steady decline dropping from 17% in 2014. This is largely due to a decline in obesity amongst boys which have dropped from 20% in 2012 to 12% in 2017 [40%].’
‘The results are broadly comparable with similar UK research. For example, analysis of data from the Millennium Cohort Study showed that the proportion of healthy, overweight and obese 5-year olds becoming or remaining obese by age 11 were 6%, 32% and 68% respectively (Mead et al, 2016). Comparative figures from analysis of administrative data from the National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP)13 in England were 8%, 43% and 77% (Copley et al, 2017).’
So, compared to England, 25% fewer healthy 5-year-olds becoming obese by 11 in Scotland. Similarly, 25% fewer overweight 5-year-olds becoming obese and 12% fewer obese 5-year-olds remaining obese.
This study also attributes credit to Scottish Government policy initiatives:
‘Food available in and around schools has also been a focus of policy aimed at improving children’s diets. Legislation requiring local authorities to ensure schools provide food and drink of an appropriate nutritional standard has been in place since 2007 with accompanying guidance’
‘Progress towards achieving the goal of a more active population has been made through a range of activities in recent years including the implementation of the National Walking Strategy (Scottish Government, 2014c), the Cycling Action Plan (Scottish Government, 2017b), the Active Schools programme8, Community Sports Hubs9 and the Legacy 2014 Physical Activity Fund. Of particular relevance for children and young people is the Scottish Government’s commitment to expanding the Daily Mile11 to ensure that Scotland becomes the first ‘Daily Mile nation’ with roll out to nurseries, schools, colleges, universities and workplaces. Recent research results suggest the Daily Mile is effective at increasing levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), reducing sedentary time, increasing physical fitness and improving body composition.’
https://www.gov.scot/publications/growing-up-scotland-overweight-obesity-age-10/
Yesterday, at Holyrood, from Alex Cole-Hamilton (Edinburgh Western) (Scottish Liberal Democrats):
To ask the Scottish Government what it is doing to reverse the reported fall in the number of children in Scotland being vaccinated.
Joe FitzPatrick: Childhood immunisation rates across Scotland remain very high. Apart from rotavirus vaccine, over 95% of children had received each routine immunisation by the time they were 12 months of age. This reflects both the hard work and commitment of our colleagues in the NHS and a recognition among parents of the benefits of vaccination. However, we are not complacent and will continue to make every effort to promote and encourage childhood vaccinations.
Click to access WA20190801.pdf
The ‘reported fall’ seems to be the tiny 0.6% decrease in the uptake of the two-dose rotavirus vaccine from 93.4% in 2017 to 92.8% in 2018.
Click to access 2019-03-26-Childhood-Immunisation-Summary.pdf
Readers will know that change of this scale is statistically insignificant and that trends worthy of action can only be observed over periods of at least 5 years.
For context:
Despite ongoing controversy NHS Scotland has achieved 96.6% adoption of the one-dose MMR vaccine by 5 years-of-age and has now beaten the 95% target for ten years.
The uptake in England is only 91.2% and falling.
Click to access 2019-03-26-Childhood-Immunisation-Summary.pdf
As part of its Mental Health Strategy 2017-2027, the ‘SNP Government’ committed to provide funding to support the employment of 800 additional mental health workers, by 2012/2022, to improve access in key settings such as Accident and Emergency departments, GP practices, police station custody suites and prisons.
As of 1 July 2019, an additional 268 WTE mental health workers had been appointed, well ahead of expectations after only one year of the three-year campaign.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/mental-health-workers-quarterly-performance-reports/
Note: I have used BBC Scotland editorial guidelines in rounding up and in labelling the Scottish Government ‘the SNP Government’ to ensure everyone knows where the buck stops!
Talking-up Scotland 