New sub-poll puts SNP at 49% and Indy Parties at 52%

Only 3 fuckin percent in Jockoland!

It really is too close to call these days. From Ipsos MORI based on a sample of 119 with fieldwork on 26th to 30th July:

  • Con                  16%
  • Lab                  14%
  • LibDem            14%
  • SNP                 49%
  • Green              3%
  • Brexit              3%

Click to access ipsos_mori_july_2019_political_monitor.pdf

From YouGov last week, with 147 Scots and fieldwork on 23rd and 24th July:

  • Con                  10%
  • Lab                  11%
  • LibD                 18%
  • SNP                 42%
  • Brexit              13%
  • Green              5%

Click to access TimesResults_VI_190724_w.pdf

As you might expect with small samples, results fluctuate, but SNP dominance is a given after more than 20 sub-polls putting them at over 40%. Equally consistent, despite single digit variation, has been the complete lack of evidence of any Swinson, Davidson or Leonard boost and their almost certain battering, as Reporting Scotland liked to say today about the Scottish economy.

3 thoughts on “New sub-poll puts SNP at 49% and Indy Parties at 52%

  1. Ludo Thierry August 2, 2019 / 5:36 pm

    Hurrah – Not off-topic!

    Hi John – Can’t help but wonder if Westminster pm Johnson’s backroom team are actively dumping Col. Davidson? Kenny Farquharson has a piece in the Times silkily arguing that the ‘Scottish’ tories are realising that Davidson’s time has come and gone in the changed circumstances of the Faragist challenge and the exodus of pragmatic Scottish centrist voters in the face of the blond mop-top’s rightist coup: Link and snippets below:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-turning-tide-is-leaving-davidson-adrift-mxh50wnv7?shareToken=167cb0e06aab35de1e21008c60f5072b

    “Ruth Davidson’s biggest problem is not Boris Johnson. This may be hard to believe, given the uncomfortable stand-off between the two over Brexit. What could possibly be a bigger problem than holding a view — opposing a no-deal Brexit — that your party leader regards as a sacking offence?

    But no, Mr Johnson is not the trickiest challenge facing the Scottish Tory leader. For that, she has only to look in the mirror. Ms Davidson’s biggest problem is that she is no longer the kind of leader her party needs.

    What has changed? The Scottish Conservatives have mislaid about half of their voters, that is what has changed. And these voters have been lost to a party to the right of the Tories, not to the left.

    And of course, her problems are not all to her right. Many moderate Tories appalled at Mr Johnson’s ascension are eyeing the exits, if they have not yet stampeded for the door. This is not the cautious, pragmatic, centrist party they signed up for. Who can blame them for wanting out, now that the Conservative Party of old is back, blue in tooth and claw and rinse?

    Where does all this leave Project Ruth, you may ask? I was never one of those who bought into the notion of her as a putative first minister. It was far too outlandish. Even those who once subscribed to the idea now accept the moment has gone. Peak Ruth is long past. Project Ruth is over”.

    Perhaps further early evidence of Johnson’s planned political assassination of Davidson can be found in the ConservativeHome website survey of tory party members regarding their relative ‘satisfaction ratings’ of the new cabinet (and some others – including Davidson); Link and snippet below:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/08/javid-johnson-and-rees-mogg-take-the-podium-in-our-latest-cabinet-league-table.html

    ConservativeHome net satisfaction ratings for cabinet (and others): (Source: ConservativeHome survey of Party members, July 2019)

    Alister Jack = 31.8

    Ruth Davidson = 14.8

    Davidson in the doldrums. The Scottish Conservative leader has previously been relatively shielded from the ups and downs of the Cabinet, often chalking up podium positions as she focused her fire on the SNP. She is currently the lowest-ranked politician in the entire table, most likely fallout from her highly-publicised split with the Prime Minister and hostility to No Deal.

    Note how the previously unknown Alister ‘Union’ Jack who enjoys Johnson’s blessings has a rating which towers over long-time media darling ‘BBC’ Davidson’s rating. Such a very rapid and major shift in popularity within the tory party membership suggests (to me at any rate) that the Johnson machine is going all out to politically undermine and decapitate Davidson – These Eton types play hardball and Davidson consistently briefed against the bottle blond – but lacked the political skills (and base) to be effective. (Alas poor Ruthie – we in Scotland kent her well – far too well even).

    Liked by 1 person

  2. John August 3, 2019 / 7:06 am

    Going in the right direction, I think the figure at 49 might be the more accurate result considering the Tory party would not divulge the results of their poll , if it was low for the SNP they would be screaming it on their media pals front pages.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Terry callachan August 4, 2019 / 11:42 am

    You can be assured that 49% is the lowest estimate they can find

    Liked by 1 person

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