Talking-up Scotland

Thanks to reader BROADBIELD for this updated source.

Out of twelve ‘regions’ in the UK, only five have lower unemployment rates than Scotland and only two have significantly lower levels – the much subsidised South-East and South-West and the former has actually increased since last year. Also, Scotland has had the greatest fall in unemployment in the UK since October 2016.

From the Office for National Statistics:

Table 1: Summary of latest headline estimates for regions of the UK, seasonally adjusted, November 2016 to January 2017

UK regions
	Employment rate1 (%) aged 16 to 64	Change on Aug to Oct 2016	Unemployment rate2 (%) aged 16 and over	Change on Aug to Oct 2016	Inactivity rate3 (%) aged 16 to 64	Change on Aug to Oct 2016
United Kingdom	74.6	0.2	4.7	-0.1	21.6	-0.1
Great Britain	74.7	0.2	4.7	-0.1	21.5	-0.1
England	74.9	0.1	4.7	-0.1	21.3	-0.1
North East	70.7	-0.2	6.8	0.3	24.1	0.0
North West	73.1	0.6	4.9	-0.5	23.1	-0.2
Yorkshire and The Humber	72.9	-0.4	5.3	0.0	22.9	0.5
East Midlands	75.7	0.4	4.3	-0.4	20.9	0.0
West Midlands	72.4	-0.4	5.6	0.3	23.2	0.2
East	76.6	0.0	4.4	-0.3	19.8	0.2
London	73.5	-0.2	5.6	0.2	22.0	0.0
South East	78.5	0.4	3.5	0.0	18.6	-0.5
South West	78.2	0.9	3.6	-0.2	18.8	-0.8
Wales	73.3	0.4	4.4	0.1	23.3	-0.4
Scotland	73.7	0.4	4.7	-0.6	22.6	0.0
Northern Ireland	69.4	-0.1	5.7	0.1	26.2	0.0

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/mar2017#summary-of-latest-regional-labour-market-statistics

If it was an increase in unemployment, the SNP government would get the media blame so their employability initiatives must take the credit now.

 

Scottish Energy Jobs Task Force prompts UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) to project massive growth by 2035

In its Activity Plan 2017 and 2018, the OGA sees the opportunity to increase gross revenue by £140 billion by 2035. Here’s their opening ‘vision’ statement:

‘The OGA is working with the industry, governments and others to develop a single, compelling vision for the UK oil and gas industry. The need for a clear long-term vision for the UK oil and gas industry was identified at the Scottish Energy Jobs Task Force, Values and Principles workshop in May 2016. By maximising economic recovery and doubling the UK’s share of the global oil field services and technology market, the opportunity exists to increase the value of the UK oil and gas industry by half again by 2035. This work will also help inform the oil and gas elements of the UK Government’s emerging Industrial Strategy.’

Published in March 2017, this comes on the tail of reports of major reinvestment in the North Sea and West of Shetland by the industry itself and of massive investment from hedge funds.

North Sea oil and gas is on the crest of a ‘Third Wave’ and the SNP Government is already supporting plans for it

 ‘Hedge Funds Bet Big on Oil’

 ‘Global demand for oil could outdo the 10-year average in 2017.’ Why the SNP Government, the sector and hedge funds are all optimistic.

https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/media/3473/420432-oga-activity_plan_2017_18_print_11.pdf

© scottishconstructionnow.com

That’s the Scottish Building Federation headline from 15^th March. It’s good enough as it is, I think. It comes only a few weeks after the Scottish Government budget announced for 2017/18:

• Over £470m of direct capital investment to begin delivery of 50,000 affordable homes,
• Over £140m for Energy Efficiency programmes to help deliver climate change targets
• Over £100m investment in digital and mobile infrastructure, to improve digital connectivity, grow Scotland’s digital economy and increase digital participation, including support for our commitment to deliver 100 per cent broadband access by 2021

Also, the Scottish Government announced a further £15 million for new roads and land development in Fife and North Ayrshire which is expected to provide leverage for private sector investment of £75 million to £100 million.

Overall output in Scotland in 2016 was £14.5 billion and employment in construction rose 7%, up 12 000 to reach 181 000. Much of the growth has been in infrastructure projects funded by the Scottish Government.

Commenting on the new employment figures, Scottish Building Federation Managing Director Vaughan Hart said:

‘Following on from last week’s Scottish construction output figures, these new figures on Scottish building employment during 2016 show a year-on-year rise of 12,000 in the number of people working within the sector.’

https://www.sbnn.co.uk/2017/03/15/scottish-construction-employment-closes-2016-3-year-high/

http://news.gov.scot/news/boost-for-infrastructure

(c) Getty

I’m not watching but no doubt the Scottish mainstream media are all over the latest poverty statistics increases. I wonder if they’ll remember just which government is to blame. Here are three quotes from the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health in January 2017, to remind us how little the Scottish Government is responsible:

‘There is much that the Scottish Government is doing to reduce the impact of poverty and inequality and there is much in Scotland that can be celebrated and learned from.’

 ‘The devolution of welfare powers should not obscure the continuing role of that Westminster plays in determining benefit spending in Scotland.’

‘Welfare claimants in Scotland have lost large sums already, and are set to lose further large sums. The devolution of welfare powers will not in itself alter this stark reality.’

 http://www.rcpch.ac.uk/system/files/protected/page/SOCH-recommendations-Scotland.pdf

See more on this at:

BBC Un-Reporting Scotland witter on about poverty and inequality for a whole week but still fail to keep up-to-date with research which lays the blame where it lies, on Westminster

However, there is some fairly good news in today’s release from the Scottish Government:

‘New experimental statistics have been published today showing the proportion of people living in persistent poverty in Scotland between 2010 and 2015. We know that spending brief periods with a low income can be less damaging than living in poverty over a number of years. The persistent poverty figures show the number of individuals living in poverty for 3 or more of the last 4 years.’

I’ve extracted the comparative figures for you:

‘Scotland generally had lower persistent poverty rates when compared with England, Northern Ireland and Wales, especially after housing costs.

‘Before housing costs the Scottish persistent poverty rate for all individuals in 2010 – 2015 (8 per cent) was slightly lower than in England (9 per cent), Northern Ireland (11 per cent) and Wales (10 per cent).’

‘After housing costs the difference was greater with the Scottish persistent poverty rate (9 per cent) below that of England (12 per cent), Northern Ireland (12 per cent) and Wales (12 per cent).’

http://news.gov.scot/news/persistent-poverty-in-scotland-2010-2015

 I’m not saying this is anything much to be proud of but is it evidence that at least the Scottish Government is trying? What’s more, the Scottish Government was able to predict this two years ago:

‘Worst UK cuts to hit Scotland by 2016 – report: The worst of the UK’s austerity cuts have yet to hit Scotland and will be felt in the next two years, ­according to a report. Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon warned that the cuts will set the fight against poverty back a decade and hit the most vulnerable in society.’

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/worst-uk-cuts-to-hit-scotland-by-2016-report-1-3367858

In an announcement on the 13^th March, a group called ‘Warmworks’ claimed much credit for a ‘scheme for fuel poor hitting its 5K-customer milestone, a boost for jobs and skills in Scotland and balancing efficiency and support. ‘Warmworks Scotland’ has just assisted its 5,000^th customer—a key milestone in its delivery of the Scottish Government’s Warmer Homes Scotland Scheme.

 I know the last phrase is there but it’s not giving enough credit for me. ‘Warmworks’ describes itself as an independent partnership between Energy Saving Trust,  Everwarm and Changeworks. The partnership also claims that it has created more than 300 new jobs, including 60 apprenticeships and that it requires that all employees in its supply chain are paid the Living Wage.

What Warmworks doesn’t make clear enough is that they are just the contractors who won the contract to deliver the scheme based on Scottish Government funding of £224 million energy efficiency drive, first declared in April 2015.

This kind of thing needs headlining so that Scottish voters are fully aware of another of many progressive policies launched by the Scottish Government in an effort to protect us from the worst Westminster can do. As for having to pay the Living Wage, that was a Scottish Government requirement rather than high ethical standards by an employer.

http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/blog/warmworks-working-well-scotland

http://www.changeworks.org.uk/news-and-events/news-archive/%C2%A3224-million-energy-efficiency-drive-for-scottish-homes

© offshoreenergytoday.com

I’ve extracted much of this from a blog titled ‘Scotland-England Electricity Transfers and The Perfect Storm’ posted on March 10, 2017 by Euan Mearns. His purpose is more complex and I think wider than mine here. He certainly knows and understands far more, technically, than I do. Part of it seems to be to expose massive problems with French Nuclear such as the fact that they had to shut down 20 of their 58 reactors because of safety concerns (the ‘Perfect Storm’]. I do sympathise with anti-Nuclear arguments but it’s not my purpose here which is to point up the strength of the Scottish economy including energy production, on the way to independence, thus my headline. Here’s how Euan opens his report:

 ‘In January this year [2017] a perfect storm gathered around European, UK and Scottish electricity supplies. But the lights stayed on, in the UK at least. This is the first of two posts on this topic. Here, I take a quick look at the electricity transfers between Scotland and England since this was the first big test for the system since the closure of the 2.4 GW Longannet Coal Power Station in March 2016.’

Returning to my theme, here’s what Euan had to say about Scotland – England Electricity Transfers as published by National Grid for January and February 2016 before the 2.4 GW Longannet coal fired power station in Scotland closed.

‘The key observations from January-February 2016 are:

1. Scotland was exporting electricity to England virtually all of the time.
2. There were 5 occasions when Scotland briefly imported a small amount that I would speculate is probably out of grid balancing convenience.
3. Maximum exports of 3.5 GW occurred at times of high wind and this effectively marks the de-rated capacity of inter-connectors between Scotland and England.’

Now it’s clear that Euan doesn’t think Scotland, post-Longannet, can continue to export power in the same way as in 2016. This is where we part. I’ve already posted a number of articles demonstrating massive current renewables-based over-production and evidence of imminent new projects to come online and ensure reliability regardless of onshore wind levels. Here are some:

‘Wind farms powered 4 million Scottish homes last month’ and there are only 2.4 million ‘households’ in Scotland

The potential for Scottish Wind Power is even greater than we thought. Could a single wind turbine power a whole Scottish city?

A second ‘biggest in the world’ for Scotland’s renewable energy sector

‘The Biggest in the World!’ 270 tidal energy turbines to be installed to provide sustainable power to Scotland

I think there is little doubt that Scotland, regardless of the Longannet shutdown, is or soon will be a massive over-producer of electricity.

http://euanmearns.com/scotland-england-electricity-transfers-and-the-perfect-storm/

© stv.tv

It’s all a matter of how you say it. Today, the Daily Business Group had: ‘Scots jobless tally falls to same rate as UK’ while the BBC had: ‘Scottish unemployment falls by 16,000.’ The English and Scottish unemployment rates are now the same at 4.7%. However, comparing a country of 5 million people with another of more than 50 million is meaningless. Far more meaningful would be to compare the parts with each other as the BBC did back in January 2016

From the BBC website, the jobless rate for the three months to November 2016:

South East       3.4%

Wales              4.4%

Scotland          5.1%

N Ireland         5.6%

London            5.6%

North East       6.8%

Presented that way, Scotland didn’t really seem to have a problem compared with England even then. Now that we are at the same level overall, perhaps the regional comparisons will be even better? I can’t find them.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38661443

On youth unemployment, the Scottish Government are bit more assertive, as they should be:

‘Record youth unemployment rates continue.’ 

‘While we still have much to do, our work to develop opportunities for young people through apprenticeships and training and to close the gender pay gap is helping us set ourselves apart from the rest of the UK. In terms of youth unemployment rates, we are second only to Germany within the EU. These latest figures show Scotland’s labour market remains resilient with unemployment rates and levels falling, and our female and youth employment rates outperforming the UK overall.’

http://news.gov.scot/news/unemployment-levels-fall

https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2017/03/scots-unemployment-matches-uk-average/

Good news.

I was torn between using the above quote from 14^th March, for my headline, from the mainlymacro blog by the awfully impressive and English-sounding Simon Wren-Lewis Professor of Economic Policy at the Blavatnik* School of Government, Oxford University, and a fellow of Merton College, and the equally eye-catching one below:

‘But the bottom line is that the case for Scottish independence is now much stronger than it was in 2014. Then a brighter future outside the UK was patriotic wishful thinking. Now, if they can stay in the Single Market, it is almost a certainty. ‘

I know, Ruth Davidson, ‘formidable’. She has a bigger fan club amongst English liberals and some Tories than she has with the Scottish electorate. I think it’s that image of her straddling a buffalo or the time when she gave Boris a doing that they like so much. I confuse the two things in my mind for some reason.

Wren-Lewis is clearly no admirer of the current government. He opens with:

‘Brexit makes the economics of Scottish independence much more attractive

It is difficult to think clearly when you watch the utter hypocrisy of our Prime Minister, lecturing the SNP about politics not being a game, moments before she needlessly rejects a Lords amendment to secure the rights of EU citizens in the UK. Everyone knows those rights will be guaranteed during the negotiations, so it would be so easy to seize the moral high ground by doing that now. But I’m not sure our Prime Minister, and her MPs, would recognise the moral high ground if it was staring them in the face.’

Wren-Lewis then goes on to make the ridiculous claims that the SNP were to blame for Brexit and that rUK is subsidising our weak economy. He clearly hasn’t read any of the demolitions of the weak economy arguments at, for example:

http://www.businessforscotland.com/westminster-parties-wrong-footed-on-gers-debate/

Nor has he clearly read any of the good news about Scotland’s recent energy boom at, for example:

North Sea oil and gas is on the crest of a ‘Third Wave’ and the SNP Government is already supporting plans for it

However, he gets it right when he tells us that incomes in the UK are likely to face a reduction of around 10% in the next ten or so years. So, if Scotland becomes independent and stays in the EU it might well benefit from the inward investment that would have otherwise gone to England [We speak English, sort of] and the immigration that has also been good for the UK economy. He finishes with:

‘But the bottom line is that the case for Scottish independence is now much stronger than it was in 2014. Then a brighter future outside the UK was patriotic wishful thinking. Now, if they can stay in the Single Market, it is almost a certainty.’

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/brexit-makes-economics-of-scottish.html

Of course, he’s all wrong about the supposed ‘patriotic wishful thinking’ in 2014 but nearly all English intellectuals seem to believe that mainstream media lie, even though they are otherwise capable of seeing through their other lies about the benefits of Brexit.

*Footnote:

Leonard “Len” Blavatnik (Russian: Леонид Валентинович Блаватник, Leonid Valentinovich Blavatnik; born June 14, 1957) is a Ukraine-born American^[2] businessman, investor, and philanthropist. He made his fortune through business via diversified investments in myriad companies through his conglomerate company, Access Industries. In 2015, he was named Britain’s richest man with an estimated net worth of £17.1 billion as of April 2015.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_Blavatnik

Professor Richard G Whitman, Visiting Senior Fellow, Europe Programme, at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, in London could not be a more UK establishment figure. He has special interests in defence and security and has advised both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.

On 14^th March he wrote: ‘Theresa May’s ‘Two Union’ Problem: Scotland and Article 50’. The complete piece is worth a look, reference below. As you might expect from a defence and security interest he’s particularly aware of the dangers of fighting on two fronts. Here’s some of what he says about that:

‘Now that Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced that she will push for a second Scottish independence referendum…..what it means now is that Theresa May has a ‘two union’ problem to address. She has the problem, obviously, of the negotiations with the European Union which are just about to kick off, but she also now has the dual and interconnected problem of the union of the United Kingdom and holding that together which means that essentially she’s fighting a set of negotiations, or a political conflict, on two fronts. And they are of course intimately connected. So if she succeeds in the EU negotiations in terms of getting what she wants, or what the UK government appears to want – which is a fairly uncomplicated deal in terms of institutional interconnection with the EU – that’s likely to disappoint the Scottish nationalists, and so it’s going to accelerate the programme for triggering the referendum in Scotland.’

He goes on to praise Sturgeon’s timing of her attack:

‘What I think is very canny about Nicola Sturgeon’s timescale is calling for it just on cusp of the end of the [Brexit] negotiations. So you’ll have a sense of what the deal is like and whether the deal is the kind of deal that the Scottish nationalists want, which is as close as possible to normal [EU] membership – which Theresa May doesn’t want. So there is a very strong interconnection between the two.’

Was that ‘canny’ just a bit patronising? Whitman goes on to make much of the lack of unity in the four UK administrations when it comes to negotiating with the EU. Indeed he notes, as negotiations progress and decisions have to be made, for example, about returned powers going to Westminster or to Holyrood, the devolved administrations especially in Scotland and Wales will have more opportunities to disrupt May’s tactics as they fight for the interests of their own citizens over that of her priorities – the banks, Nissan, French nuclear contracts, Ireland and Gibraltar. If she sacrifices the Scottish fishing fleet in a deal, expect a tonne of smelly fish dumped at her door. All of this obvious division and disagreement will be seen by the EU negotiators and strengthen their hands at the expense of May’s negotiators. They do want to punish the UK.

One thing Whitman misses, strangely for a defence and security expert worrying correctly about the dangers of a war on two fronts for Theresa, is that unlike Napoleon or Hitler, she has no competent generals to lead for her in different parts of a complex campaign. On the Scottish front, her forces despise each other and will not follow one leader. It’ll be like Syria. She has no equivalent to Alistair Darling this time. Liam Fox would be a gift to the SNP. I don’t know the Welsh situation well enough but I suspect Labour there will not follow her orders. Even on the European front, who does she have of any quality? Johnson, Fox, Davis and Leadsom are inexperienced, unpredictable, thick or all three of those. Hammond is the best and he’s timid, cautious or mediocre at best.

Whitman finishes with:

‘I think that if you get a hard Brexit deal or a failure to get a deal on the part of the Conservative government – in other words, an agreement to disagree with the EU in terms of a settlement through the Article 50 negotiations – I think there is a greater-than-not likelihood of Scottish independence.’

I’m in danger of getting too confident here.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/theresa-may-s-two-union-problem-scotland-and-article-50

© Josh Brown

Sky News is predicting today:

‘PM Theresa May is understood to be preparing to reject a demand by Nicola Sturgeon for a second Scottish referendum within the next two years.’

May thinks a Scottish Referendum should not be allowed to interfere with the Brexit process and thus can only be held after that. Sturgeon feels sure Scots will know by end 2018 or early 2019 what kind of deal awaits them. I’ve already written that it seems likely May will do highly expensive deals to protect the City of London’s trading arrangements and those of Nissan. Also, it seems very likely she will perform constitutional contortions to preserve the open borders between the two Irelands and between Gibraltar and Spain. Will there be a sweetener for Scotland? At the moment it seems more likely May will gamble on our lack of will to leave and perhaps even betray our fishing industry as part of the deal, allowing EU fleets free access to Scottish waters. As for more devolution for Scotland in return to staying in the UK, her party is utterly opposed to that.

However, the last two polls have been too close to call and in another two years another cohort of Yes-supporting young voters will have joined the electorate as another two years’ cohort of the No-supporting elderly will have left it. Also, denying us the right to hold a referendum within two years can only offend marginal voters and reinforce the desire to leave. She might want to beware the ‘Ides of March’ as those Tories who are actually enthusiastic or at least sanguine about our departure gather round her with daggers drawn. See:

Good News: Two thirds of Tory activists actively want Scottish Independence or would be ‘sanguine’ if it happens

Further, the No campaign has no credible leadership this time. Labour and Tories will not stand together on the same stage under an august or even experienced (more Rome?) leader like Mr Darling. Ruth Davidson? Kezia Dugdale? Hah, don’t make me laugh. Gordon Brown? Liam Fox? Stop it, it hurts!

Perhaps even more important, as discussed by John Wight, a No-voter in 2014, in: ‘Let Scotland Be a Beacon of Hope Amid the Darkness of Brexit’ in the Huffington Post on 13^th March, the angels are on our side.  He writes convincingly just what we would be gladly leaving behind if we have any sense:

‘The indisputable future impact of Brexit on the Scottish economy – on investment, jobs, and on Scottish society – cannot simply be wished away in obeisance to an EU referendum result that has only succeeded in kicking over a constitutional hornet’s nest….. Meanwhile, the depiction and treatment of refugees, people whose only crime has been to flee the chaos and carnage created in large part by Britain’s own foreign policy over the past decade and more, stands as a withering indictment of a country that increasingly resembles a poor Xerox of a civilised society…..Tory austerity not migrants is the root cause of the growing pressure on public services, the NHS, jobs, and housing….More simply put, austerity is the unleashing of an assault on working class communities across the country, punishing them for the reckless actions of a deregulated banking and financial sector, in the process turning what was a crisis of private greed into a crisis of public spending.’

Wight’s full piece is worth a read but he concludes with:

‘Of course there are no guarantees when it comes to the outcome of a second referendum on Scottish independence. But what is certain is that the stakes involved are higher than they were in 2014. They involve the question of whether we should be offering the hand of friendship to migrants and refugees or the fist of fury; defending multiculturalism and diversity or abandoning them; and ultimately the choice between outward-looking Scottish internationalism or backward-looking British nationalism. Indyref 2. Let it come.’

It’s a no-brainer for me.

http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-seeks-second-scottish-independence-referendum-10800578

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/john-wight/scottish-referendum_b_15334820.html?utm_hp_ref=uk