Why it’s hope over fear again and this time we win

© Josh Brown

Sky News is predicting today:

‘PM Theresa May is understood to be preparing to reject a demand by Nicola Sturgeon for a second Scottish referendum within the next two years.’

May thinks a Scottish Referendum should not be allowed to interfere with the Brexit process and thus can only be held after that. Sturgeon feels sure Scots will know by end 2018 or early 2019 what kind of deal awaits them. I’ve already written that it seems likely May will do highly expensive deals to protect the City of London’s trading arrangements and those of Nissan. Also, it seems very likely she will perform constitutional contortions to preserve the open borders between the two Irelands and between Gibraltar and Spain. Will there be a sweetener for Scotland? At the moment it seems more likely May will gamble on our lack of will to leave and perhaps even betray our fishing industry as part of the deal, allowing EU fleets free access to Scottish waters. As for more devolution for Scotland in return to staying in the UK, her party is utterly opposed to that.

However, the last two polls have been too close to call and in another two years another cohort of Yes-supporting young voters will have joined the electorate as another two years’ cohort of the No-supporting elderly will have left it. Also, denying us the right to hold a referendum within two years can only offend marginal voters and reinforce the desire to leave. She might want to beware the ‘Ides of March’ as those Tories who are actually enthusiastic or at least sanguine about our departure gather round her with daggers drawn. See:

Good News: Two thirds of Tory activists actively want Scottish Independence or would be ‘sanguine’ if it happens

Further, the No campaign has no credible leadership this time. Labour and Tories will not stand together on the same stage under an august or even experienced (more Rome?) leader like Mr Darling. Ruth Davidson? Kezia Dugdale? Hah, don’t make me laugh. Gordon Brown? Liam Fox? Stop it, it hurts!

Perhaps even more important, as discussed by John Wight, a No-voter in 2014, in: ‘Let Scotland Be a Beacon of Hope Amid the Darkness of Brexit’ in the Huffington Post on 13th March, the angels are on our side.  He writes convincingly just what we would be gladly leaving behind if we have any sense:

‘The indisputable future impact of Brexit on the Scottish economy – on investment, jobs, and on Scottish society – cannot simply be wished away in obeisance to an EU referendum result that has only succeeded in kicking over a constitutional hornet’s nest….. Meanwhile, the depiction and treatment of refugees, people whose only crime has been to flee the chaos and carnage created in large part by Britain’s own foreign policy over the past decade and more, stands as a withering indictment of a country that increasingly resembles a poor Xerox of a civilised society…..Tory austerity not migrants is the root cause of the growing pressure on public services, the NHS, jobs, and housing….More simply put, austerity is the unleashing of an assault on working class communities across the country, punishing them for the reckless actions of a deregulated banking and financial sector, in the process turning what was a crisis of private greed into a crisis of public spending.’

Wight’s full piece is worth a read but he concludes with:

‘Of course there are no guarantees when it comes to the outcome of a second referendum on Scottish independence. But what is certain is that the stakes involved are higher than they were in 2014. They involve the question of whether we should be offering the hand of friendship to migrants and refugees or the fist of fury; defending multiculturalism and diversity or abandoning them; and ultimately the choice between outward-looking Scottish internationalism or backward-looking British nationalism. Indyref 2. Let it come.’

It’s a no-brainer for me.




5 thoughts on “Why it’s hope over fear again and this time we win

  1. twathater March 14, 2017 / 8:56 pm

    twathater says:
    14 March, 2017 at 5:21 pm

    Mike geoo and stoker


    Nicola I watched daily politics today and was utterly appalled at Tommy Shepard , if this is going to be the level of disputation put forward by our (SNP SG MPS and MSPS ) we would be as well not bothering with a referendum .

    Tommy allowed 2 very incompetent MSPS to SPOUT DELIBERATE LIES , spurious MISINFORMATION and outright scaremongering , without in any meaningful way challenging them , some on the site are trying to deflect blame on to the interviewer but I am sorry to say the blame lies squarely with Mr Shepard .
    On watching the programme I was convinced that Mr Shepard was not even in the room .
    Too many SNP persons participating in the broadcast media are simply not good enough at it , they are time and time again being caught wrong footed or simply don’t have answers to challenges, they are constantly reacting rather than challenging, this is the wrong methodology ,you are allowing dubious and deliberate lies and obfuscation to register in people’s subconscious whilst your responses are frequently interrupted and talked over,not allowing the answer oxygen .
    Let us not forget the establishment drones are experts at this, they have centuries of disabling peoples ideas and dreams
    The Scottish people NEED convincing through proper facts spoken coherently and with conviction , that Scotland can survive and prosper,and make their OWN decisions on their and their childrens future, without being dragged along reluctantly with decisions made by their neighbours.

    I desperately want my country to be independent, to forge it’s own future , to make its own way in the world and to make its own decisions ,to decide how we raise our finances and how and who we spend them on ,to trade with who WE want ,to ensure that every citizen has a future without deprivation and homelessness , to utilise our resplendent resources for our citizens not for the benefit of pirates.
    I want ALL of these things, but unless the SNP SG step up and take the fight to the establishment and their unionist lackeys,fight fire with fire ,proact rather than react then we will all face 2014 disappointment again

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Contrary March 14, 2017 / 9:58 pm

    Really strange the number of people coming out and declaring for yes, and going through the therapy of explaining their journey, I wonder if they do find it therapeutic? It must be nice to be joining a welcoming group. Wonder what it is like for those people changing their minds to no,,,? I may delve into unionist tweets to find out if there is such a thing. Maybe. I have been avoiding any news things that are not humorous at the moment – bad enough listening to radio Scotland’s GMS this morning – wish I had time to count the number of negative words used, must have been a record today.

    On the humorous note, I thought this clip on this tweet rather amusing (maybe only because I was taken off-guard by the ending right enough),,, John, I know you have given up TV news, and do not want to influence you to do so, and I am SURE you will not have been tempted to look at this clip unless pre-approved, so I am pre-approving it for your viewing as long as you don’t read the text at the bottom:


    The SNP crowd fund thing reached £200 grand after 24 hours as well, it did not have numbers of people donating but it does indicte there just might be some enthusiasm for a referendum – I doubt that will stop Tory calls for there being No Appetite for a second referendum. And there is an easy answer to the terrible divisiveness – everyone join a yes side! Easy peasy, sorted. Do you think anyone will be able to come up with anything positive to say about the union in the next couple of years, I have been waiting a long time now, or even might there be a more conciliatory tone? (Okay, trouble with keeping a straight face typing that last bit, sadly).

    Theresa May: Why do I keep getting a picture of a golem saying ‘my preciousssss’ that makes my skin crawl every time I see her name?


  3. johnrobertson834 March 15, 2017 / 7:21 pm

    After the SNP leader announced a renewed drive to break away from the UK, Labour and Liberal Democrat sources cast doubt on whether a campaign uniting the big Westminster parties is possible.

    It raises the prospect that Ms Sturgeon may only face the kind of fragmented movement that tried and failed to prevent Brexit, with each political party attempting to make its own different arguments.



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