Talking-up Scotland

© Josh Brown

Sky News is predicting today:

‘PM Theresa May is understood to be preparing to reject a demand by Nicola Sturgeon for a second Scottish referendum within the next two years.’

May thinks a Scottish Referendum should not be allowed to interfere with the Brexit process and thus can only be held after that. Sturgeon feels sure Scots will know by end 2018 or early 2019 what kind of deal awaits them. I’ve already written that it seems likely May will do highly expensive deals to protect the City of London’s trading arrangements and those of Nissan. Also, it seems very likely she will perform constitutional contortions to preserve the open borders between the two Irelands and between Gibraltar and Spain. Will there be a sweetener for Scotland? At the moment it seems more likely May will gamble on our lack of will to leave and perhaps even betray our fishing industry as part of the deal, allowing EU fleets free access to Scottish waters. As for more devolution for Scotland in return to staying in the UK, her party is utterly opposed to that.

However, the last two polls have been too close to call and in another two years another cohort of Yes-supporting young voters will have joined the electorate as another two years’ cohort of the No-supporting elderly will have left it. Also, denying us the right to hold a referendum within two years can only offend marginal voters and reinforce the desire to leave. She might want to beware the ‘Ides of March’ as those Tories who are actually enthusiastic or at least sanguine about our departure gather round her with daggers drawn. See:

Good News: Two thirds of Tory activists actively want Scottish Independence or would be ‘sanguine’ if it happens

Further, the No campaign has no credible leadership this time. Labour and Tories will not stand together on the same stage under an august or even experienced (more Rome?) leader like Mr Darling. Ruth Davidson? Kezia Dugdale? Hah, don’t make me laugh. Gordon Brown? Liam Fox? Stop it, it hurts!

Perhaps even more important, as discussed by John Wight, a No-voter in 2014, in: ‘Let Scotland Be a Beacon of Hope Amid the Darkness of Brexit’ in the Huffington Post on 13^th March, the angels are on our side.  He writes convincingly just what we would be gladly leaving behind if we have any sense:

‘The indisputable future impact of Brexit on the Scottish economy – on investment, jobs, and on Scottish society – cannot simply be wished away in obeisance to an EU referendum result that has only succeeded in kicking over a constitutional hornet’s nest….. Meanwhile, the depiction and treatment of refugees, people whose only crime has been to flee the chaos and carnage created in large part by Britain’s own foreign policy over the past decade and more, stands as a withering indictment of a country that increasingly resembles a poor Xerox of a civilised society…..Tory austerity not migrants is the root cause of the growing pressure on public services, the NHS, jobs, and housing….More simply put, austerity is the unleashing of an assault on working class communities across the country, punishing them for the reckless actions of a deregulated banking and financial sector, in the process turning what was a crisis of private greed into a crisis of public spending.’

Wight’s full piece is worth a read but he concludes with:

‘Of course there are no guarantees when it comes to the outcome of a second referendum on Scottish independence. But what is certain is that the stakes involved are higher than they were in 2014. They involve the question of whether we should be offering the hand of friendship to migrants and refugees or the fist of fury; defending multiculturalism and diversity or abandoning them; and ultimately the choice between outward-looking Scottish internationalism or backward-looking British nationalism. Indyref 2. Let it come.’

It’s a no-brainer for me.

http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-seeks-second-scottish-independence-referendum-10800578

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/john-wight/scottish-referendum_b_15334820.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

© scottishhousingnews.com

The Scottish Government has just announced that it will spend over £590 million in 2017/2018 so that there are more affordable homes in Scotland. According to Inside Housing the English Government will spend £8 billion over the next 4 years thus around £2 billion in 2017/18. The arithmetic is simple.  England has 10 times the population of Scotland so to be at the same level, per head of population, the Tories should be spending around 10 times as much or £24 billion in 2017/18 and not just 2. So, the Westminster Tories will spend roughly 4 times the Holyrood SNP but on a population 10 times greater. Thus, per head of population, the Scottish Government will be spending 2.5 times more on affordable housing. Yet, the need is even greater in England to start off with. According to Estate Agent Today:

‘The number of affordable homes built in 2015/16 fell by 52 per cent and was the lowest number in 24 years. Just 6,554 social rented homes were built in the same year.’

The Scottish Government built 33,490 affordable homes over the last five years. Again bear in mind Scotland has only one tenth of the population. Here’s an extract from the Scottish government release:

‘A good supply of affordable homes is vital to ensuring everyone has an equal chance of getting on in life. That is why it is key to this Government’s commitment to tackling poverty, reducing inequality and building strong local communities. It also boosts the economy by supporting 14,000 jobs right across the country. We’re determined to increase and accelerate housing supply – working in partnership with councils and housing associations to deliver quality homes to fit local needs. The Scottish Government’s extra homes pledge is expected to support, on average, 14,000 jobs a year in construction and other related industries over the next five years.’

Yet, 56% of women are currently expected to vote No and around 70% of over-60s said they would do the same. Who benefits most from the SNP’s anti-austerity measures….why women and the elderly of course! Why are they not getting this message?

http://news.gov.scot/news/increased-funding-for-affordable-housing

http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/balance-of-housing-spending-does-not-reflect-new-approach/7019088.article

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/3/housing-shortage-forces-councils-to-spend-2m-a-day-on-b-and-bs

http://news.gov.scot/news/33490-affordable-homes-delivered-over-the-last-five-years

© bookiesedge.com.

They got the EU referendum and the last general election wrong but that makes me think they are more rather than less likely to know what they’re doing now. They’re survivors so they will have learned the necessary lessons.

Ladbrokes: 

Result of next Referendum if before end 2020

8/11 YES

11/10 NO

 

William Hill:

By end 2020:

4/6 Yes

11/10 No

By end 2024

2/9 Yes

3/1 No

http://politicalbetting.com/

© www.scotrail.co.uk 

The Borders Railway has been a big success in many ways. Obviously, it’s a popular new commuter line into Edinburgh but there’s more, much more and the question is should we be re-opening more lines given the evidence below:

First, from Scottish Tourism Economic Assessment Monitor (STEAM) the statistics below reveal for 2016 as opposed to2015 before the line was open:

Borders
• The number of visitor days in hotels and bed and breakfasts has risen by 27 per cent
• A 20 per cent rise in visitor spend on food and drink
• Visitor spend on accommodation is up 17 per cent
• A 16 per cent rise in overall visitor spend
• The number of days visitors stayed in the Borders has increased by almost 11 per cent
• Eight per cent increase in employment related to tourism

Midlothian
• A 12.3 per cent rise in the number of visitor days in hotels and bed and breakfasts compared with first six months of 2015
• Visitor spend on food and drink in same period rose by 6.5 per cent
• Overall visitor spend was up 6.8 per cent
• The number of days visitors stayed in Midlothian increased by 7.2 per cent
• A 4.1 per cent improvement in employment related to tourism.

Quite impressive, I’d say

http://www.bordersrailway.co.uk/news/tourism-visitor-figures-boost-attributed-to-borders-railway/

Second a new brewery has opened and the railway gets at least some of the credit:

‘The proud boast of Tempest Brewing is “designed and built in the Scottish borders” – and this small craft brewery has taken its own words to heart. It’s been able to expand in part because of where it is now based, close to the new Tweedbank railway station. Tempest, which tripled sales and began exporting in the year following its move in 2015, chose the new location as it is a few minutes’ walk from the station at the southern end of the Borders railway.’

https://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2017/mar/13/business-thriving-scotland-borders-railway

So, if this has worked so well, shouldn’t we be opening other lines? What about re-opening the ‘Deeside’ from Aberdeen to Ballater? Surely that’d be a winner?  Any suggestions readers?

© iterativepath.wordpress.com

On March 11^th, the Financial Times wrote:

‘Scottish separatists gain the upper hand towards a second vote.  A spasm of English nationalism makes the case to demand another say on independence. As the UK slashes and stumbles through the thickets towards Brexit, a familiar shadow has fallen. Scotland, its prickly, unreconciled northern nation, is moving towards another independence referendum four years after the first.’

I know it’s not very respectful about us Scots but I quite like the way they reveal their true feelings. At least we know where we stand with them. I like their use of the word ‘spasm’ too. The article is meant to scare the Conservatives into action and it repeats the lies they’ll need to use to fool us again.

Here’s their first point to stir up the Unionists:

‘Three years ago, the result was closer than many expected, with the pro-UK side winning 55 per cent to 45 per cent. Support for separation rose during that campaign. The nationalists have since swept their opponents aside, taking all but three of Scotland’s Westminster seats and securing a third successive governing term at the devolved administration in Edinburgh. The psephological leap the separatists have to make in a second vote is much less daunting.’

Prof Curtice at Strathclyde University and at the BBC regularly is psephologist.  He studies and analyses elections and polls.  What the FT means is ‘it’s too close to call now.’ They’re right. Look at the recent polls. BMG Research used exactly the same words themselves. The second negative for the Unionists is this point:

‘Unionists have a further problem: who has the credibility and unifying power to front another “Better Together” campaign? The leaders of the pro-UK movement back in 2014, eminent Westminster Scots such as Alistair Darling, former chancellor, are retired from frontline politics, retain little influence and it feels as if they belong to another age. The Labour party, which dominated Scottish politics for generations, is in a state of collapse. It has been replaced by the SNP as the left-of-centre option for many voters, and at the last devolved election slipped into third place behind the much-ridiculed Scottish Conservatives.’

Again, they’re correct. Already Labour Scotland have insisted they won’t share a platform with the Tories and Kezia (No)and Jeremy (Yes) don’t even agree if we should be allowed another referendum! The No campaign team will be weaker this time. So here is the FT’s solution:

‘If the separatists are to be defeated again, it is likely to be down to the facts. The oil price, central to nationalist boasts about the prospective wealth of an independent Scotland, has plummeted. In 2014, the Scottish government predicted North Sea revenues of between £6.8bn and £7.5bn in 2016/17. In reality, UK oil and gas generated receipts of effectively zero and are forecast to remain around that level.’

This is already out-of-date thus wrong and will be even more so by end 2018 judging by current trends in the Scottish oil and gas fields. The companies are re-investing, the hedge funds are piling in like a bunch of well-informed bookies and the Saudis have done a deal with them to keep the price stable. I’ve written several pieces on Scotland’s energy boom but here are just two:

North Sea oil and gas is on the crest of a ‘Third Wave’ and the SNP Government is already supporting plans for it

‘Global demand for oil could outdo the 10-year average in 2017.’ Why the SNP Government, the sector and hedge funds are all optimistic.

Here is the FT’s second set of ‘facts’ to be used by the feckless No campaign:

‘Further, the Scottish government’s figures [GERS] show the public spending deficit has reached almost £15bn: 9.5 per cent of gross domestic product, compared with 4 per cent for the UK. The SNP has failed to produce a credible plan for closing this gap.’

There is so much written to dispute the above. Basically, it doesn’t take into account how much revenue Scotland raises through taxation and it’s based on how Westminster has screwed up the Scottish economy over previous decades:

‘What this means is that the GERS report represents how Scotland’s economy is performing within the union and tell us next to nothing about how Scotland would have performed as an independent nation now or in the past, nor about how it would perform in the future with either independence or full fiscal autonomy.’

http://www.businessforscotland.com/westminster-parties-wrong-footed-on-gers-debate/

There is a fuller rebuttal, worth reading, at the above. 

The FT then returns to the anxiety the Unionist camp surely feels with this:

‘In these unpredictable times, no one can be sure of the result if Scots go to the polls again. Despite the weight of economic evidence against her, the “take back control” message that delivered Brexit may work just as well for Ms Sturgeon. The UK may yet not see out the decade.’

https://www.ft.com/content/08fc0cd4-059a-11e7-aa5b-6bb07f5c8e12

Let’s hope so.

© renewableenergyfocus.com

In a recent piece I wrote for the umpteenth time applauding new signs of growth in Scottish renewables activities including two which were to be the biggest in the world:

A second ‘biggest in the world’ for Scotland’s renewable energy sector

One respondent wrote below my article:

‘The turbines are German and the float system is Spanish. Scottish industrial benefit will therefore be minimal.’

Though my article was about really just about supply, I have to admit it is a factor to be unhappy about. I know the earlier de-industrialisation of Scotland by the Tories underlies much of our current limitations and the Scottish Government has been pretty much powerless to redress that but it did seem an important reservation. Mind you, the Scottish Government have played a part in the recovery of steel and aluminium manufacturing recently.

However, a second respondent wrote:

‘The float system is a Cobra Semi-Spar concrete structure. Are you sure it will not be constructed in Scotland?’

The first didn’t reply so I don’t know the answer to that but then a third wrote very helpfully:

‘There is considerable activity in the wind turbine field in Scotland

Siemens, Livingstone
Samsung, Fife
Mitsubishi, Hunterston
King span (Proven) Stewarton
Dong Energy, Campbelltown
Gaia , Port Dundas, Glasgow
Gamesa, Bellshill’
BIFAB Fife / Stornoway
Scottish Power (Iberdrola)

So maybe it’s not as bad as it seemed at first.

Then on March 10^th, the Scottish Energy Minister wrote in the Daily Business Group:

‘Scots wind farm know-how could be sold overseas. Business Minister Paul Wheelhouse made the assertion after approving an eight turbine offshore wind farm off the south-east of Aberdeen that will create 110 jobs in assembly, installation and operation. The floating development by Kincardine Offshore Windfarm will have a generating capacity up to a maximum of 50 MW – enough to power the equivalent of almost 56,000 homes. Mr Wheelhouse said: “It will also cement our place as one of the world’s leading nations in the innovation and deployment of floating offshore wind. If the technology can be demonstrated at scale, it has huge potential to help Scotland meet its energy needs and to develop a supply chain that can service opportunities elsewhere in Europe and in markets such as South East Asia and North America.’

I suppose there is a kind of know-how beyond manufacturing know-how whereby Scots learn how to integrate and make systems work so the Minister’s claim has something in it.

http://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2017/03/scots-poised-to-sell-wind-farm-know-how-overseas/

© crofting.org

On 10^th March, the Scottish Government announced this extra money to enable crofters to build and maintain their homes this making crofting more viable. Crofters have to live in their land unlike the gentleman farmers further south.

Why is it so important to invest in Scotland’s crofting sector? Here’s what Ullapool crofter, Fiona MacDonald said in The Scottish Farmer last November:

‘Crofting facilitates a lot of Scotland’s agriculture, especially small scale agriculture that is managed by people who wouldn’t be able to afford it otherwise; without it, the land would fall into disuse.’

According to Fergus Ewing, SNP Rural Economy Secretary:

‘The Croft House Grant scheme will receive the extra funding in 2017/18, taking the total allocation to £2 million. Mr Ewing also announced a review of the Croft House Grant scheme requirements to ensure there are no unnecessary barriers and the grant continues to target support at those most in need.’

If control of funding for rural and farming affairs is returned from the EU to Westminster and no longer devolved, as Ruth Davidson has agreed makes sense (to her), to Westminster, can we imagine such knowledge or empathy for crofters from the current UK Minister, Andrea Leadsom?

http://news.gov.scot/news/croft-house-grant-increase

http://www.thescottishfarmer.co.uk/news/14841808.Crofters_look_to_the_future/

 

We all know, of course, that if you really cost nuclear properly including the massive decommissioning costs and the risks to the environment, humans too, it has always been far more expensive than ever admitted. Here’s Siemens’ managing director says in this Reuters report on 10^th March:

I predict the price for offshore wind in the upcoming auction will be lower than that given to Hinkley…The price will keep coming down, as we find better logistic solutions, new grid solutions, as well as bigger turbines.’

The contract for Hinkley C nuclear power station will give French utility EDF £92.5 per megawatt hour, twice the current wholesale price of electricity.

In 2016, electricity from off-shore windfarms was already as low as £97 per megawatt hour, down 32% in four years. With bigger turbines thus less towers and foundations it will soon cost less to produce the same amount of electricity.

I’ve recently reported on the world’s largest off-shore floating wind farms and tidal energy turbines to be built off the Scottish coast at:

‘The Biggest in the World!’ 270 tidal energy turbines to be installed to provide sustainable power to Scotland

A second ‘biggest in the world’ for Scotland’s renewable energy sector

Also, the efficiencies of scale with larger turbines, predicted by Siemens above, have already been predicted at:

The potential for Scottish Wind Power is even greater than we thought. Could a single wind turbine power a whole Scottish city?

It’s clearly time to cancel any further nuclear power investment and to further invest in Scotland’s ideal environment for offshore wind and tide power.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-siemens-britain-windpower-idUKKBN16H1B0

 

© http://inhabitat.com

Only days after the announcement of the construction of ‘the largest tidal energy project in the world’ in the Pentland Firth, the news that wind farms powered 4 million Scottish homes last month and the report of the launch of a prototype of a revolutionary new type of floating multi turbine platform to be sited near Dounreay, we hear more good news and, interestingly, that the latter may not require much further thought as the Scottish  Government approves an application to develop a huge floating wind farm off the coast of Aberdeenshire. Reported in Scottish Construction Now today:

‘The green light has been given to Kincardine Offshore to build the world’s largest floating wind array, consisting of up to eight 6MW semi-submersible turbines, which will operate 15km off the coast of Kincardineshire. The first turbine of the 50MW array is expected to be on site in the second quarter of 2018.’

According to the report, this will be just the beginning of a new era in reliable renewable energy production, create 110 jobs and reduce CO² emissions by around 90 000 tonnes per year. The advantages of this technology can be found in a previous piece:

Two Massive Investments Confirmed for Skye and Dounreay

This kind of development, along with the land-based wind farms and the marine turbine fields shows that the Scottish Government target of generating half of our energy from renewables by 2030 may prove too modest an aim.

http://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/17882/government-approval-for-kincardine-floating-wind-farm/

As floating wind farms tend to be located well out to sea and thus out of sight, we must assume Donald Trump did not object. I do wonder if it’s the aesthetics of wind farms that worry him or a fear of the effect that one, too close, may have on his hair.

© www.youtube.com

This leak is presumably designed to alert the media and the Scottish people that Theresa May will not risk angering us by trying to prevent one.

Already FM Sturgeon has suggested late 2018 is a possibility and both the ‘unidentified minister’ and the PM seem to be accepting this is going to be the case. I haven’t checked the bookies’ odds yet. This would mean the Referendum being held just as we get the clearest picture of the Brexit deal May has done with the EU including any betrayals of the Scottish fishing industry, any compensation for the English car industry, a special no doubt very costly arrangement to allow the City of London to trade as before, an unbelievably hypocritical, mind-bending and constitution-contorting deal for the two Irelands to retain a soft border and, almost certainly, no real concessions for Scotland. Hopefully, it will leave us all mad as hell, yes?

In the same sleakit (Notice ‘sleakit’ contains ‘leak’?) journalistic vein, the FT also announced that ‘another unidentified person’ who knows what PM May is thinking said:

‘The debate is only going to be about the date.’

The FT argues that that the PM would fight to delay it but that:

‘The prospect of an independence vote in Scotland that could rip apart the United Kingdom just months before an EU exit would add a tumultuous twist to Brexit with uncertain consequences for the world’s fifth largest economy.’

They’re feart. They really are. Two recent polls giving ‘Yes’ 49% and 50%, despite using a methodology favouring negative responses, even before the campaign starts, and so they should be.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland-idUKKBN16H0O6