Talking-up Scotland

This report was published in Oil Industry News on Monday, 17 April 2017. The headline needs no changing for me.

Although there is a current surplus in supply, the surplus is reducing and will begin to fall behind the demand in coming years. I’ve already written confidently about this in:

‘Global demand for oil could outdo the 10-year average in 2017.’ Why the SNP Government, the sector and hedge funds are all optimistic.

and in:

North Sea oil and gas is on the crest of a ‘Third Wave’ and the SNP Government is already supporting plans for it

Demand is expected to begin to grow significantly in 2018 and 2019 with further strong growth in the years ahead. According to the report, peak demand is not in sight. The massive growth in car ownership in India and China, still petrol-based but more efficient, will play a large part in this.

The market-depressing effect of US shale production will not last due to sand shortages and, even in the near future will not supply the massive growth in the Asian market. Again I’ve already written about this at:

The Scottish Third Wave of Oil Productivity is built on solid foundations but those of the Shale Oil Industry are built on sand and on sand that is disappearing fast

This further strengthens the case I made for optimism in Scotland’s post-independence energy economy and a Yes vote, recently, at:

Energy, energy, energy: Scotland’s renewables projects, oil and gas discoveries just keep on coming

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/13996/oil-market-rebalancing-demand-expected-to-rise/

45% of the Scottish population, 2.4 million people, are now on the NHS Organ donor Register. The figure for England is only 35%. For Northern Ireland it is 39% and for Wales it is 37%.

In 2016/2017 there were 133 deceased organ donors in Scotland. This represented a 34% increase from 99 in 2015/2016. A total of 348 people benefitted from transplants. This was the highest level in the UK and was a record figure for Scotland. This increase has contributed to a fall in the number waiting for a transplant to the lowest level on record.

However, the marked difference in the percentages on the donor list does not seem to be seriously restricting the use of donated organs in England by contrast with Scotland. In 2016/2017, first three quarters, there were 157 deceased and living donors in Scotland whose organs were used while in England there were 1522 used. England’s population is ten times that of Scotland so this suggests only a slightly lower tendency to use donated organs in England.

There does seem to be a shortage of organs in the UK but I could only find UK-wide figures from http://www.organdonation.nhs.uk:

‘Last year, 466 patients died in need of an organ and a further 881 were removed from the transplant waiting list. Many of them would have died shortly afterwards.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/busiest-ever-year-for-organ-donation

https://nhsbtdbe.blob.core.windows.net/umbraco-assets/1068/scotland.pdf

https://nhsbtdbe.blob.core.windows.net/umbraco-assets/1070/england.pdf

https://nhsbtdbe.blob.core.windows.net/umbraco-assets/1069/northern_ireland.pdf

https://nhsbtdbe.blob.core.windows.net/umbraco-assets/1518/wales.pdf

https://www.organdonation.nhs.uk/news-and-campaigns/news/highest-number-of-organ-transplants-ever-across-uk-but-many-families-still-say-no-to-donation/

New M8 link between Glasgow and Edinburgh to open five days early with real benefits for drivers

 After three years of construction and half a billion pounds of investment by the Scottish Government, the new link will:

1. Provide uninterrupted motorway between Scotland’s two biggest cities
2. Reduce journey times by about 20 minutes and increased reliability
3. Improve business links
4. Separate local and other traffic between the Newhouse and Baillieston interchanges
5. Reduce pressure on the A8

This is just part of the SNP Government’s wider commitment to improving Scotland major roads infrastructure. In February, they announced a 21% increase from £165 million for 2016/2017 to nearly £200 million for 2017/2018.

http://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/18523/new-m8-missing-link-set-to-open-ahead-of-schedule/

http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/scottish-road-maintenance-budget-rises-21

scottishraptorstudygroup.org

Scotland’s iconic Golden Eagle population continues to grow impressively. Breeding pair numbers now stand at 508, from 442 and up 16% from 2003. All of these pairs are in Scotland – clearly voting with their talons? The lone Lake District male Golden Eagle is thought to be dead. We should give them a new pair or two or perhaps the Lake District is too heavily populated with humans? I’ve seen the queues to climb some of the hills.

The RSPB report on 11 April 2017 does contain less good news for some other species but that’s not what my blog is for.

Back in 2016, the BBC reported ‘Golden eagle numbers close to historic levels.’

The RSPB said is 2016 that the Golden Eagle could now be defined as having a ‘favourable conservation status.’

The head of species and land management at RSPB Scotland said that Golden Eagles are an ‘awe-inspiring part of our natural heritage.’

https://www.rspb.org.uk/our-work/rspb-news/news/440063-latest-figures-reveal-changing-fortunes-for-scotlands-birds

http://www.rspb.org.uk/Images/sukb2016_tcm9-440078.pdf

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-37924951

www.hurricaneenergy.com

The newly discovered oil field west of Shetland, containing around 1 billion barrels, is just the latest in a long list of developments and discoveries which must have an impact on those for whom economic security will be the main factor in voting Yes next time around.

The Lancaster and Halifax oil fields contain a column of oil one kilometre deep! I hope their naming after English towns doesn’t hint at some kind of sense that they won’t be ours after independence. I liked the way the Sun described it as the biggest in the North Sea. Geography is clearly not their proof-reader’s strongest subject.

It’s worth looking back over the last year or so, though, to see that this is just one, a big one admittedly, of many announcements suggesting Scotland’s energy future is incredibly optimistic. See these:

1.     ‘The Biggest in the World!’ 270 tidal energy turbines to be installed to provide sustainable power to Scotland

 2.     ‘Wind farms powered 4 million Scottish homes last month’ and there are only 2.4 million ‘households’ in Scotland

 3.     The potential for Scottish Wind Power is even greater than we thought. Could a single wind turbine power a whole Scottish city?

 4.     Two new records for Scottish wind power ‘underline the massive progress Scotland is making in securing an ever increasing proportion of its electricity needs from wind power and other clean renewable sources’

5.     As Scotland’s renewable energy output surges, the SNP Government pushes on with a £10 million fund for local projects

6.     Scottish Energy Jobs Task Force prompts UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) to project massive growth by 2035

 7.     Subsidy costs for Scottish off-shore wind and tidal energy farms likely to fall below those needed for new nuclear plants making the latter an even more stupid choice

 8.     A second ‘biggest in the world’ for Scotland’s renewable energy sector

9.     Happy New Year Story: Scotland’s ‘renewable energy expertise’ in demand worldwide, says new research.

 10.  New Technology to recover 500 million barrels of heavy oil from North Sea fields

 11.  The Scottish Third Wave of Oil Productivity is built on solid foundations but those of the Shale Oil Industry are built on sand and on sand that is disappearing fast

Add to all this, we even had BBC Scotland telling us in 2016: ‘New Shetland gas fields ‘could supply whole of Scotland’ at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-35568837

I don’t see how this could be much more positive. Wavering No voters need to see this: share, share, share.

JEFF J MITCHELL VIA GETTY IMAGES

Don’t let anyone tell you that Scotland would have trouble joining or staying in the EU. Even our mainstream media (MSM) has at last had to accept the fact after 50 EU parliamentarians wrote to Holyrood last week to say so. See some of the many MSM acknowledgements below. Nearly three years ago on China Central TV I was challenged with the idea that we would struggle. I laughed and said Scotland is a gem. They’d welcome us with open arms I insisted. At the time they had recently accepted the still blood-stained Croatia and were actively pursuing the utterly broken Ukraine, FFS! The argument is over now. It can’t be used against the Yes campaign this time or risk being laughed at. Here’s a quote from the Daily Record piece:

‘Therefore, if Scotland were to become an ­independent country and decided to seek to maintain EU membership, we offer our full support to ensure the transition is as swift, smooth and orderly as possible.’

Scotland would be ‘most welcome’ as full EU member … – The Scotsman

www.scotsman.com/…/scotland-would-be-most-welcome-as-full-eu-member-50-meps…

Scotland would be ‘most welcome’ as full EU … – The Evening Times

www.eveningtimes.co.uk/…/15213289.Scotland_would_be__most_welcome__as_full…

Independent Scotland “most welcome” in EU, say 50 parliamentarians …

www.heraldscotland.com/…/15213979.Independent_Scotland__quot_most_welcome…

Group of European politicians sign letter saying an independent Scotland would be ‘most welcome’ as member of EU

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/group-european-politicians-sign-letter-10192806

Dear Holyrood keep Scotland in Europe – Scottish Greens

https://greens.scot/keep-scotland-in-europe

Group of 50 European politicians announce independent Scotland …

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/…/independent-scotland-welcomed-into-european-unio…

Independent Scotland would be welcome to join EU, say Green MEPs …

https://www.theguardian.com

 

 

After a period of more dramatic falls in unemployment than elsewhere in the UK and already having lower unemployment than most parts of the UK, Scotland now has lower overall unemployment than the whole of rUK.

It now stands at 4.5% compared to the rUK figure of 4.7%. The rates for youth and for women continue to be better after several months now of the same.

Sources:

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/03/17/scotland-has-a-greater-fall-in-unemployment-than-anywhere-else-in-the-uk-and-has-a-lower-overall-rate-than-six-out-of-the-12-uk-regions/

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/scotlands-unemployment-rate-now-lower-uks/

 

(c) Daily Record

This is from Tory Lord Ashcroft’s ‘All change? The new political landscape – and what Britain expects from Brexit’ in April 2017. It’s not in the main report of course. You have to dig in the bowels of the data tables to find out that the FM remains popular in Scotland (sources below).

You might know that I’m not looking at the mainstream media, for health reasons. You might be better off doing the same. So, I’ve no idea how they’re spinning the evidence to construct a Tory golden age in Scotland. Don’t tell me.

However, in the data tables on pages 90 and 92 you can find this, in answer to the question ‘On a scale from 0 to 100 how do you rate the performance of the following politicians’:

Average for Nicola Sturgeon:            52.91%

Average for Ruth Davidson:              40.52%

A 12% lead is big in politics. Ruth is more popular in all the English regions but, interestingly, it is nearly always by a smaller margin. Indeed, in London, she is only 2% ahead.

And, it’s not just Nicola. Trust in the Scottish Government remains much higher than in Westminster. See this:

‘Almost two thirds (65%) of people in 2016 said they trusted the Scottish Government ‘just about always’ or ‘most of the time’ to work in Scotland’s best interests. This figure had fallen from its record high figure of 73% in 2015. This compared with a quarter of people (25%) in 2016 saying that they trusted the UK Government ‘just about always’ or ‘most of the time’ to work in Scotland’s best interests. This figure had remained at a similar level to 2015, when 23% said they trusted the UK Government.’

Don’t worry too much about the fall. That a government should be so trusted after ten years is unheard of. That Westminster should be so distrusted must give us hope for Indyref2.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/ALL-CHANGE-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-April-2017.pdf

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/New-Landscape-Full-data-tables-March-2017.pdf

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/03/4648/3

Footnote: I haven’t recovered. Taking Scottish politics too seriously makes me anxious. Doing nothing about it makes me depressed. Sheeesh!

© stv

Back in March 2016, Eleanor Bradford BBC Scotland Health Correspondent, David Cameron and Jeremy Hunt were all wrongly convinced your life was at greater risk if you had surgery at the weekend. See this if you want a reminder:

http://newsnet.scot/archive/media-watch-along-broadcasting-fiss-ure/

We knew their sums were a bit dodgy at the time. Eleanor had based hers on a misreading of the data from one Dumfries hospital with a view to scaring Scottish patients as much as English ones already were. It’s taken some time for academics at Edinburgh University to thoroughly debunk the whole idea but they have now in the British Journal of Surgery, 21^st March 2017. I haven’t got a report for NHS England but after all these years of Tory misrule, I’d drive back to Scotland first before signing in. Here’s what they report:

‘There was no difference in short- or long-term mortality following emergency general surgery at the weekend, compared with mid-week.’

Clear?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bjs.10507/full

© shetlandtimes.co.uk

The recently published report of a surprise inspection on cleanliness, hygiene or infection prevention and control, carried out on 30^th November and 1^st December 2016, highlighted only one area for improvement – ‘water ingress in the accident and emergency unit.’ I’ll come back to that.

Commended by the inspection team were:

Standard of equipment cleanliness was high.

Staff knowledge of standard infection control procedures was good.

 

The above two seem pretty crucial to me and thus reassuring news for the people of Shetland. The ‘water ingress’ issue is interesting. I’ve been to Shetland in February when the winds and rains blow horizontally with demonic force. If any part of the building opens then you’re going to get some ‘ingress’ at times. Read the explanation below and you’ll see they’re doing what they can and that this is a classic case of finding something, anything, to complain about or you look like you’re not doing your inspectorial job properly.

‘The water ingress presented a potential risk of contamination to the clinical areas where patients were examined. A representative from estates services explained this was an historical and ongoing problem that occurred during periods of extreme weather. Senior management staff told us that plans had been tested to make sure arrangements were in place to maintain safe, service continuity when water ingress occurs. We were also advised that extensive improvement work including upgrading the roof had been carried out and continued.’ (11)

See the first text I’ve highlighted? That’s common in Shetland. See the second piece? The potential risk has been long recognised and they know what to do about it thus, really, there is no risk.

http://www.healthcareimprovementscotland.org/our_work/inspecting_and_regulating_care/hei_shetland_reports/gilbert_bain_hospital_mar_17.aspx