Talking-up Scotland

The Bloomberg report based on data from Wood Mackenzie fails to explain just why profit-making concerns would actually be doing this and relies on self-congratulatory but non-explanatory references to earlier investment in the fields when prices were higher but we all know none of that would matter unless they confidently expected that big profits were coming their way.

 

We’ve already seen numerous experts predicting global shortages and consequent price hikes. See just these two examples from the Aramco and Haliburton CEOs:

Independent Scotland’s oil wealth is assured as Aramco chief predicts huge shortages

Will Scotland’s oil hit $100 (or more?) a barrel again after 2020?

This year alone, 14 fields with a projected production of 230 000 barrels will start-up but that will make only a tiny impact on global shortages and prices will be high. Global demand is currently approaching 125 billion barrels per day and 92 million oil-based cars will be bought this year alone. See this if you think, regardless of how green you’d like things to go, the demand for Scotland’s oil is not going to be massive and consequently very lucrative for a small independent country:

‘The Steady Drumbeat of More Global Oil Demand’

https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2017/05/29/the-steady-drumbeat-of-more-global-oil-demand/#372782345e2d

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-04/u-k-north-sea-oil-field-startups-surge-to-highest-in-10-years-j75n10pi

(c) STEVE CARTER REX

Come on, be honest, how sure were you we’d come top? I’d have been pleased with a top-twenty-entry. Canada came second and curiously that’s just a bit Scottish too.

Here’s what the Rough Guide report said to its readers:

‘There’s nothing like an amazing view to inspire you to book your next trip, whether you’re drawn by rolling countryside, isolated islands or soaring mountain peaks. To help spark your imagination, we asked our readers to vote for the most beautiful country in the world.’

And, the final result was: Scotland! Here’s their brief description:

‘Scotland. Who can deny that these wild beaches, deep lochs and craggy castles are some of the most wonderful and beautiful sights in the world? Stuck in the far northwest corner of Europe, Scotland is remote, but it’s not isolated. The inspiring emptiness of the wild northwest coast lies barely a couple of hours from Edinburgh and Glasgow, two of Britain’s most dense and intriguing urban centres. Ancient ties to Ireland, Scandinavia, France and the Netherlands mean that – compared with the English at least – Scots are generally enthusiastic about the European Union, which has poured money into infrastructure and cultural projects, particularly in the Highlands and Islands. By contrast, Scotland’s relationship with the “auld enemy”, England, remains as problematic as ever. The Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh has helped to focus Scottish minds on Scottish affairs, but many Scots still tend to view matters south of the border with a mixture of exaggerated disdain and well-hidden envy. Ask for a “full English breakfast” and you’ll quickly find yourself put right. Old prejudices die hard.’

England came in 7^th. I’m going to be gracious and admit there are some lovely bits of England. I’ve holidayed in many of them and had a great time except when trying to change a Scottish tenner. So, I think we can safely assume beauty has been a factor in our recent boom:

Tourism spending in Scotland surges ahead of UK figure

https://www.roughguides.com/gallery/most-beautiful-country-in-the-world/

© food.list.co.uk

Research undertaken as part of the 2011-2016 Strategic Research Programme, not to be confused with the Rural and Environment Strategy reported on earlier focuses just on food and animal health to create new crop varieties, fight the spread of animal and crop diseases and help the rural economy cope with climate change.

Examples of new crops are potatoes, raspberries and blackcurrants which are better able to fight diseases and, presumably, cope with the milder, wetter, weather patterns we’re increasingly experiencing.

Dr Viren Ranawana, Scientist at the Rowett Institute said:

‘Diet-related chronic diseases are increasing in the UK despite government dietary guidelines, and one reason for this is that most of us are often unable to change our dietary habits. Reformulating foods we like to eat in order to make them healthier is an alternative approach to improving health.  We have been exploring how some underexploited natural products, suited to production in a Scottish climate, can be used to produce healthier food options and one example are the berries, salal and honeyberry, which may be used to produce more nutritious yoghurts.’

The gov.scot news report doesn’t provide the basis for the benefits headlined so we must trust Dr Ranawana has a scientific basis for them.

https://news.gov.scot/news/supporting-the-rural-economy-1

Small grants up to £60 000 have been used successfully to make worthwhile improvements in the lives of many living in the world’s most deprived areas.

This is now the fifth year of the Scottish Government’s International Development Small Grants Programme which is open to Scottish-based international development organisations working in Scottish Government priority countries: Malawi, Rwanda, Zambia, and Pakistan.

For example, a grant of only £52 000 was used by Cerebral Palsy Africa to improve teacher training and consequently the educational experience of children with CP.

The Chief Executive of Scotland’s International Development Alliance, said:

‘Grants available to smaller organisations make an incredible difference to hard-working groups in Scotland who deserve this extra boost for their projects, and will improve the lives and life chances of people facing hardship and lack of opportunity overseas.’

The following grants will be awarded as part of the 4^th Small Grants Funding Round, to commence in 2017:

Projects

Organisation	Country	Summary info	Award detail	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Total
Youth for Economic Justice	India, Madhya Pradesh	Through mentoring, partnership and skills transfer, Youth for Economic Justice helps local organisations in developing countries to effectively respond to economic exclusion of young people.  This project will contribute to the economic empowerment of young women from minority Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribes living in the Balaghat district of Madhya Pradesh, through enterprise development and financial inclusion, helping with business set-up and finance management.	For the “Business Women” project -building a roadmap for economic empowerment with marginalised young women residing in slum communities in Madhya Pradesh.	£20,000	£20,000	£20,000	£60,000
Balmore Trust	Malawi	The project aims to combat the adverse effects of climate change on rice farming by providing farmers with increased access to and better management of water resources in the Karonga area of Malawi.  The plan is to install wells and pumps (solar and diesel) and supply water to 4,500 farmers who will be trained in the integrated use of ground and surface water and the maintenance of wells and pumps.  The work will be carried out in conjunction with Strathclyde and Mzuzu Universities, as well as in partnership with the Kaporo Smallholder Farmers’ Association.	For the “Developing improved Management of water resources in Karonga” project in Malawi.	£21,300	£22,700	£15,750	£59,750
Cerebral Palsy Africa	Malawi	Children born with cerebral palsy and other disabilities can often manage in school, but many in Malawi are excluded from school because of the lack of early support. Fit for School is an early intervention programme designed to provide essential early support to young children with complex physical and learning disabilities (such as cerebral palsy) to enable them to be fit for school at 6 years of age and give them the best chance of remaining in school.	For the “Fit for School” project to support young children with disabilities into school in Malawi.	£30,524	£18,989	£10,038	£59,551
Malawi Fruits	Malawi	The “Inspiring Youth in Agriculture” project will provide training and support for young people to enable them to grow a variety of low input/high value crops; take the crops to local processing facilities; receive processed crops and then sell them both locally and outside their communities through contract markets.	For the “Inspiring Youth in Agriculture” project to promote farming business among young people in Malawi.	£17,800	£15,600	£11,400	£44,800
Big First Aid Project	Tanzania	This project aims to develop a more complete solution to the challenge of emergency health care in Tanzania by training taxi responders to an advanced level of first aid to enable them to treat casualties and transfer them to hospital quickly.	For the “First Aid for Everyone” project – a motorbike ambulance service for Northern Tanzania.	£14,440	£21,989	£21,830	£58,259
Lake Victoria Disabled Centre	Tanzania	Following a feasibility study in 2015, this project will develop a fully functioning prosthetics workshop where 3D printing will enable the creation of artificial limbs for children and adults in the Mara region on Tanzania.	For the “3D Printing of Prosthetics and Orthotics” project in Tanzania.	£21,470	£16,400	£19,800	£57,670
Twende Pamoja	Tanzania	This projects builds on a feasibility study in 2016 and will offer support to improve the ICT skills of teachers, and in turn pupils, in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania. It is estimated that over 200 teachers and 8,000 students will have connection with the project.	For the “ICT for Better Futures 2” project, working with 23 schools in Tanzania.	£23,460	£17,340	£18,340	£59,140
Friends of Chitambo	Zambia	The project aims to contribute to reducing mortality and morbidity due to common medical emergencies by developing and scaling-up a model of medical communication and support for ‘hard to reach’ clinic areas in Zambia.  In addition, the project will create a Knowledge Broker network to source, summarise and communicate emergency healthcare information which will strengthen South/South support for point of care decision-making at district, national and regional level.	For the project focused on communication and decision support systems for emergency medical care in Chitambo District, Zambia.	£37,714	£22,285	–	£59,999
Total							£459,169

 

 

https://news.gov.scot/news/big-impact-of-small-grants

 

As I understand it ‘social’ landlords are essentially housing associations or co-operatives but not local councils and of course, not private landlords, so you might expect them to have reasonable standards based on their values. The Scottish Housing Regulator states:

‘Overall, Scotland’s social landlords are continuing to perform well. They’ve improved or maintained performance against almost all of the Social Housing Charter standards. This is good news for tenants, particularly given last year’s strong performance from landlords. On-the-whole, most tenants are satisfied with their landlord’s performance. Performance varies underneath the national picture and some landlords have more work to do than others to improve.’

This suggests we can be reasonably pleased if not complacent. You’ll know if you you’ve read previous reports here that new affordable housebuilding for social landlords is growing quite fast in Scotland compared to that in England.

There are 610 000 tenants and 193 social landlords in Scotland so that accounts for quite a large proportion of Scotland’s population feeling reasonably satisfied with their accommodation.

https://www.sfha.co.uk/news/news-category/sector-news/news-article/social-landlords-continue-to-perform-well

Footnote: There are only about 3.5 million people in England living in housing association homes. That’s only six times as many yet the overall population is ten times greater. Presumably this means a higher proportion of English tenants are at the often not-so-tender mercies of private landlords?

© historicenvironment.scot

Often bypassed by tourists heading to Edinburgh and the Scottish Highlands, Dumfries & Galloway is experiencing a boom in visitor numbers to its historic sites and the surrounding towns will be benefiting too. The huge increase of 41% is just between April and July 2017 and presumably the same period last year.

As you know, more widely Scotland has been experiencing a massive boom in tourism due to a combination of factors including the weak pound, remoteness from incidents where there have been terrorist attacks and of course the actual appeal of the sites being increased by cultural phenomena like the TV series Outlander.

Tourism spending in Scotland surges ahead of UK figure

North Americans lead surge in Scottish tourism because they feel safer here

‘Outlander links see visitors to historic sites soaring’

Some of the main attractions are Caerlaverock Castle, Cardoness Castle and New Abbey Corn Mill. Historic Environment Scotland (HES) has 37 properties in the region and had nearly 43 000 visitors in the first four months of the financial year.

https://news.gov.scot/news/rise-in-visitor-numbers-to-historic-sites

 

Based on commissioned research by BiGGAR Economics of Penicuik, the Scottish Government’s Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS) has, in the period 2011 to 2016, generated wider economic benefits for the Scottish economy of £152 million per year and has created, over the same period, around 1 500, jobs based on average annual investment of only £49 million. The main economic impacts reported, some of which are expected are expected to be greater when finally measured, are:

• Commercialisation benefits of £1.6 million GVA (Gross value added) and more than 50 jobs.
• Animal health benefits of at least £3.0 million GVA
• Plant health benefits of at least £16.6 million GVA.
• Genetic improvement benefits of £35.9 million GVA and supporting around 260 jobs.
• An increase of £3.3 million GVA within the food and drink sector, which supported around 140 jobs.
• Environmental benefits estimated to be worth £71.7 million GVA to the Scottish economy and to have supported around 620 jobs. Exports worth £19.4 million to the Scottish economy and which supported around 390 jobs.
• Workforce productivity benefits of £0.2 million. 1.2 Future Expected Benefits

These figures are almost certainly an underestimate because it takes time for ideas to come through income generation.

To quote the report:

‘As this impact does not consider the future impact of the other areas of activity considered in this report it is almost certainly an underestimate.’

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/09/5004

 

© chrismakin.co.uk

According to research by Association of Professional Staffing Companies (APSCo) in the Scottish Financial News yesterday, the demand for new accounting and finance staff has grown by 11% over the last year and the demand for insurance staff has grown by a whopping 18%.

This, of course, fits in with a wider set of linked economic indicators including unemployment generally falling significantly below rUK levels, employment rising and the economy growing at four times the UK rate:

Scotland in recession? No, the economy is growing. Are the Fraser of Allander Institute and its media followers talking through holes in their bahookies?

Nope, still no recession, Fraser of Allander ‘Institute’: Scottish employment climbs to record high while unemployment and inactivity falls over the quarter.

APSCo, are quoted, in the SFN report, as suggesting:

‘These are a strong set of figures for Scotland, with a number of sectors continuing to push growth across the region. The recent PMI figures back up this finding, as employment continues to significantly increase. With house prices showing the biggest increase in the UK, and firms such as Amazon eyeing up the development of a second delivery site in Aberdeen, there are lots of reasons to be very positive about the future employment in the country.’

http://www.scottishfinancialnews.com/14251/demand-for-scots-accounting-finance-banking-and-insurance-jobs-up/

Previously, there have been these other indicators confirming the good health of the Scottish economy and suggesting the GERS figures can go back in the box marked ‘Propaganda’:

As economy grows faster in Scotland than in England, rents for industrial space climb faster here too

And again, continuing evidence of a strengthening Scottish economy as small claims decrees fall 55%

Good news for the Scottish economy again! Big rise in permanent jobs and starting salaries climb in Scotland

‘Staggering’ 175% increase in Edinburgh office take-up is further evidence of booming Scottish economy

Oh no, not more good news about the Scottish economy! Quick get more tissues for Ruth and Kezia. Far Less [Fewer] businesses failing in Scotland for the second quarter in a row

I could have listed another six. Here’s the link to the GERS demolition:

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/08/28/the-great-obfuscation-thanks-to-b-le-panda/

© Rajesh Kumar/AP

I’m getting on a bit so it doesn’t seem long since I was sharing a bar, sipping a pint, alongside several folk puffing away. I can still remember everything having to go in the wash reeking of smoke. Who knows what damage was done to the lungs of the poor bar staff. So, it’s heartening to hear just how successful the Scottish Government taking the initiative in the UK, two years ahead of England, to ban smoking in enclosed public spaces has been. Dr Garth Reid, Principal Public Health Adviser at NHS Health Scotland said:

‘The evidence shows the positive impact of tobacco policy, ranging from the display ban which put tobacco out of sight in small shops and supermarkets to the introduction on smoke free NHS grounds.’

Here are two of the main results applauded by NHS Scotland:

1. second hand smoke exposure fell from 11% to 6% between 2014 and 2015;
2. smoking rates have fallen from 31% in 2003 to 21% in 2015.

Here are the actions that were taken by the Scottish Government in 2005:

• Tobacco products in supermarkets and shops have been put out of sight and there is an associated reduction in cigarette brand awareness among young people.
• There has been a substantial decrease in the proportion of children exposed to second-hand smoke in the home (down from 11% to 6%).
• The ‘Take it Right Outside’ campaign was successful in raising awareness of the harms of smoking.
• Smoke-free NHS grounds policies have been introduced.
• There has been a small increase in the number of pregnant women stopping smoking using tailored NHS stop smoking services.

This is a government that seems to care more about its people than about the corporations so its hopefully only a matter of time before they win the right to impose minimum prices for alcohol and we can look forward to hearing of research into the beneficial consequences of doing so. Alcohol-related deaths are currently on the increase in Scotland. See:

https://www.bma.org.uk/news/media-centre/press-releases/2017/august/doctors-warn-worrying-increase-in-alcohol-related-deaths-must-prompt-action

http://www.healthscotland.scot/news/2017/august/success-for-scottish-governments-tobacco-strategy

 

The United Nations Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities report on the extent to which the UK complies with its convention was published yesterday. Unsurprisingly, given what we already know of Tory government, it condemns them thoroughly. The only positive comments are reserved entirely for the actions of the Scottish Government:

• Repeatedly calling for the UK Government’s Personal Independent Payment regulations to be repealed and for a review of the Employment and Support Allowance conditionality and sanction regimes
• Engaging with disabled people and the organisations representing them when devising policies and legislation which impact upon their lives – specifically in building the new social security system and in compiling our national plan to implement the Convention’s principles
• Adoption of the Accessible Travel Framework and the work underway to make transport systems in Scotland more open and accessible 
• Following the passing of the British Sign Language (Scotland) Act 2015 the Scottish Government will publish its first National Plan for British Sign Language in October

We can now add to this the recent Scottish Government allocation of £2.5 million to 13 projects across Scotland designed to ‘improve employment support’ by ‘linking with health and social care, justice and housing services.’

Scottish Government continues to show that it takes its responsibilities to care for its people seriously unlike its callous self-centred Tory neighbours

With regard to the UK Government, the UN has called for these actions:

• The UK Government’s Personal Independent Payment regulations should be repealed and there should be a review of the Employment and Support Allowance conditionality and sanction regimes
• The UK Government must do more to engage with disabled people and the organisations representing them when devising policies and legislation which impact upon their lives

Evidence that these actions are desperately needed in England can be found in reports like this from the Guardian in May this year:

Pushing people to the brink of suicide: the reality of benefit assessments

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/04/benefits-assessments-damaging-lives-hardworking-britain

and this from the Huffington Post in July:

Almost 600 Suicides Could Be Related to DWP Work Assessments, Claims New Research

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/11/16/dwp-suicides-assessments-research_n_8577038.html

Don’t read them if you’re feeling at all down. Remind me why so many Scots voted Tory at the last election?

https://news.gov.scot/news/praise-for-scottish-government-actions