As you know, Scotland is the only part of the UK with a trade surplus

Deficit/Surplus in 2016

England           -£120 038 000 000

Wales              – £55 000 000

Scotland          +£2 148 000 000

N Ireland         – £4 039 000 000

This means that Scotland is the only viable part of the UK in the sense that it, like Germany, would require no borrowing to pay for imports.

England runs massive trade deficit. Only Scotland has a viable sustainable economy, exporting more than she imports thus requiring no national debt

Clearly determined to make sure this stays the case and preferably that it improves further, the SNP Government’s Programme for Government includes notification that a network of trade envoys will be appointed to help companies increase their exports.

Scotland already has two successful Innovation and Investment hubs in London and Dublin and will now add a further two in Berlin and Paris. France is our third largest overseas market.

Here’s an extract from the First Minister’s statement:

‘This Government is ambitious for Scotland’s economy, and we are optimistic about Scotland’s ability to meet the challenges of the future. Encouraging exports isn’t simply a good thing to do in itself, it’s also important to our shared aim of raising productivity.  We want to ensure that Scotland remains an open, outward looking, internationalist country. Part of that is about doing even more to promote Scottish businesses overseas.’

Once more, I see evidence here of a government that seems to know what it is doing. It’s very difficult to imagine the kind of people leading the opposition having the intelligence or the will to get on in this way.

https://news.gov.scot/news/support-for-scottish-businesses-abroad

 

© oilandgaspeople.com

I couldn’t improve on the Oil and Gas People headline above. The message is one we’re hearing increasingly in that there is still life in the North Sea oil deposits and that Scotland can expect considerable revenue from it, if independent, for decades to come. See this:

‘The North Sea will always be “one of the great basins,” said BP CEO Bob Dudley. Royal Dutch Shell Plc will keep investing in a place where it has “deep roots,” said CEO Ben van Beurden. Total SA offered more than just words, with a $7.45-billion deal that was a vote of confidence in the region last month.’

I think we already knew that the North Sea is beginning a Third Wave of Prosperity based in part on new technologies, smaller leaner new companies and increasing prices imminent. Here are just a few recent reports pointing confidently toward the future for the North Sea:

With shortages and price increases on the near horizon, Scottish North Sea oil field start-ups reach a 10-Year High

International Energy Agency forecasts big increase in demand to give North Sea producers cause for optimism

‘I feel good about the North Sea’

‘Wave of new jobs hits the North Sea’

There have been 14 start-ups this year which will pump as much as 12% of the UK continental shelf’s 1.9 million barrels or equivalent per day of oil and gas output next year.

Oil and Gas UK, the industry lobby group, said in a report:

‘It has been a tough time for people in the industry and their families but in this tough environment, we see the North Sea turning things around. Costs are coming down and oil production is back up.’

Let’s claim the taxes from this revenue stream before it gets spent on renovating Westminster.

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/15054/oil-giants-still-love-north-sea-despite-asset-sales/

(c) Google

I’m sure we’ve all been encouraged to read of rural right to buy legislation being exploited by communities in, especially, the Highlands and the Western Isles. However, it looks as if the Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2003 has always allowed, in theory, urban communities to use it but none have till now.

Action Porty took possession today of the old Portobello Church with a view to turning it into a multi-use community hub and in so doing became the first in an urban area to take advantage of the powers.

Action Porty’s vision for the building is:

‘To create a fresh and lively space that’s accessible for all, and useful for people of all ages and abilities. We will be building additions and renovations to create a space that will meet the needs of our whole community. It will be the perfect space for community groups to meet.’

https://www.bellfield.scot/our-vision/

The news.gov.scot site says of the act:

‘The Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2003 gives communities the right to buy land and assets under certain conditions.’

Wondering what these conditions might be like, I found this from the Law Society of Scotland in 2014:

‘Plans to empower Scottish communities who want to register an interest in land in towns and cities could backfire due to the complexity of proposed changes to the law, the Law Society of Scotland said today. The Society has said the proposals to extend communities’ right to buy land to include people living in urban areas, could be thwarted by the complexity of the proposals and potentially limit rather than empower local groups and stall development plans for neglected land in urban areas.’

I couldn’t find out just what Action Porty had done to overcome these problems but the presence of this person on the board may have helped:

‘Ian Cooke (Secretary): Director of Development Trusts Association Scotland and before that various community-based posts in regeneration. Member of the Land Reform Review Group and has served on a range of boards of community organisations.’

Sounds like he may have been more difficult to thwart.

https://www.lawscot.org.uk/news/2014/09/urban-right-to-buy-plans-too-complex/

https://news.gov.scot/news/urban-right-to-buy

© thehighlandtimes.com

Back in March 2017 GFG Alliance (Liberty House and SIMEC) announced a £450 million investment in the Lochaber area subsequent to buying the Fort William aluminium complex and estate lands from Rio Tinto in a £330 million deal in December. This will be the UK’s last aluminium smelter putting it in a very good place to compete to produce car parts for the wider UK and European car manufacturers. Of course, India’s car ownership growth is the fastest in the world at 7.64% or 2.54 million vehicles in 2016 and is expected to grow by 775% to 2040 so we can expect business there too!

‘Lochaber once more’: £450 million deal for the Highlands

Now the owners plan a ‘huge’ £150 million wind-farm to power the alloy wheel plant but also the company’s steel mills in Lanarkshire. The company is also offering shared-ownership opportunities and thus cheaper energy costs to the local community too. The acceptable face of capitalism? Not a phrase I could have typed in my younger days.

The report does not quantify the size and power of the wind-farm but merely uses the word ‘huge’. I found this:

‘The costs for a utility scale wind turbine range from about $1.3 million to $2.2 million per MWh of nameplate capacity installed. Most of the commercial-scale turbines installed today are 2 MWh in size and cost roughly $3-$4 million installed.’ 

http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost

These seem to be 2012 figures.

The pound is trading at about £1 to $1.3 so that’s a $195 million dollar windfarm with about 50 turbines generating around 100 MWh? Neart na Goithe off Fife is only 45MWh so that would be huge unless of course my arithmetic and/or assumptions are flawed. Once more, I await correction with a calm and modest mind,

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/1321630/wind-power-plan-boost-smelter-economy/

The figures published by the Scotch Whisky Association are impressive if confusing in places:

1. Exports up 5% on 2015 to 1.2 billion bottles
2. There’s something a bit odd, to me about the number of bottles and total value. 1.2 billion bottles sold for only £4 billion means less than £3 a bottle. Enlighten me someone?
3. ‘Reaching fragile local economies that other global export businesses can’t reach.’ Again, can someone enlighten me on that? Does it mean rich bastards in poor countries are still buying our whisky?
4. Employs more than 10,000 workers
5. Generates almost £540 million in salaries for its direct employees,
6. Adds around £5 billion of value to the UK economy
7. Supports salaries worth £1.3 billion in Scotland alone and
8. Is the biggest single net contributor to UK trade in goods.
9. Supports 7,000 rural jobs in Scotland and as many as 40,000 more jobs across the UK.

So that’s good news, presumably reinforcing my previous headline:

With only 8% of the population, Scotland accounts for more than 28% of UK food and drink exports. Too wee to survive on our own?

http://www.insider.co.uk/special-reports/scotch-whisky-back-rise-industry-11108065

(c) kickassfacts.com

Another element in the SNP’s Programme for Government announced by the First minister is a commitment to fund pilot studies into implementing a basic income in Scotland. See this explanation from Motherboard:

‘A basic income for citizens is an old idea that’s gaining renewed traction as governments prepare for a future when robots are doing much of today’s menial work. The idea is to give everybody a living wage (or the equivalent of that in tax credits, or some other scheme) simply for being alive. Previous experiments have suggested it can work: A Canadian trial in the 1970s showed that supplying people with a basic income obliterated poverty and caused high school completion rates to shoot upwards. Finland launched a basic income trial in 2017, and Canada is gearing up to launch its own trial in Ontario. Hawaii is also looking into the idea.’

In the UK, the research group Compass has already carried out a very thorough study and make a very powerful case for the idea, in principle:

‘There are very strong arguments in favour of a UBI. Such a scheme would overcome many of the problems with the existing and increasingly complex, punitive and unpopular system of social security, which in multiple ways has become a weak tool for social protection but a strong tool for waste and the humiliation of those on the very lowest incomes. A UBI would provide a much more secure income base in an age of deepening economic and social insecurity and unpredictable work patterns. It would offer much greater financial independence and freedom of choice for individuals between work and leisure, education and caring while recognizing the huge value of unpaid and voluntary work.’

However, Compass recognises the complexity of implementing a scheme in the context of the UK’s current benefit and taxation system and conclude:

One lesson from these simulations and other studies is that, in the context of existing tax and benefit arrangements, it is not possible to design a scheme that is revenue neutral, pays a decent sum and withdraws most means-tested benefits without significant numbers of losers. This is because the current benefits system, partly because of its complexity and reliance on means testing, is able to pay large sums to some groups. While the current system is buckling under the pressure of its own complexity, a simpler, flat-rate UBI scheme cannot compensate for the withdrawal of both personal tax allowance and most means-tested benefits without becoming expensive. However, a modified scheme that paid a lower rate and retained existing means-tested benefits would be viable, though it would keep some of the complexities of the existing system. Modified scheme 2, as described above, would have very few losers among the poorest 40%. The scheme would be progressive, reduce inequality and lead to a significant cut in child poverty. In particular, there would be fewer households on means-tested benefits, and those still on them would receive less help in this way. It would have a net cost over and above the integrated changes in tax and NICs of some £8bn a year.

http://www.compassonline.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/UniversalBasicIncomeByCompass-Spreads.pdf

So, the Compass research makes a strong case for the idea in principle but also makes it clear that implementation would require one or more transitional periods to prevent, for example, traumatic consequences for some families with, typically, large numbers of children. This argues for experimental or pilot studies to find ways of dealing with the complexities in transferring from the current system to transitional basic income schemes so the Scottish Government’s commitment to fund pilot studies is sensible and, once more, evidence of competence in government so obviously lacking in London.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/kzzvp3/scotland-will-fund-basic-income-research-first-minister-says

(c) cyclingscotland.org

In the just announced Programme for Government (PFG), the Scottish Government has doubled investment in active and sustainable travel to £15 per capita, from £39 million to £80 million in total, from 2018 on. Spokes magazine made the comparison with the rest of the UK above. Though leading European cities invest as much as £20 per capita for cycling alone, this remains a big step or cycle forward.

The extra money will go for projects such as safe cycle lanes. To my knowledge, Tory South Ayrshire Council has been the only one so far to use central funds to build a safe lane then rip it up again using my council tax after protests by motorists. It will be interesting to see what they think they should use this extra money for – just paint the council vans green? That’s the Bears Way in Bearsden, above. Shouldn’t that name have been reserved for the one in Govan?

Here is a trimmed-down version of what Spokes magazine had to say about the PFG:

‘The PFG includes a whole range of new measures which appear to mark a genuine shift towards a greater understanding of and commitment to cycling and walking:

• • We hope this retains the ‘Cycling Walking Safer Streets’ (CWSS) element which aims to ensure that every council does at least some work on active travel.
  • We’d like to see an incentive included to encourage and give extra support to councils (like Edinburgh) that also invest some of their own capital, or who raise additional cash from other sources.
  • We also hope that the bulk of the cash will go to high quality infrastructure rather than too much on ‘hearts and minds’ projects which cannot be fully effective until the infrastructure to make people feel safe is there.
  • Finally, it would be nice if the budget document is clearer than in the past, rather than having cycling cash mixed in and unspecified within categories such as “future transport” and “sustainable transport.”
  • An Active Nation Commissioner is promised, “to ensure delivery of world-class active travel infrastructure across Scotland.”  
  • Electric bicycles will receive special promotion “to ensure as many people as possible can benefit from active travel.” 
  • A Transport Bill will tackle “obstructive and inconsiderate parking” – which we assume includes measures on pavement-parking and double-parking.
  • A bottle deposit scheme is planned – whilst plastic pollution is rightly hitting the headlines this should also help ‘cut’ broken glass on paths and roads
  • Low Emission Zones (LEZs) – in a major change, the government will now support LEZs by 2020 in Scotland’s 4 largest cities rather than just the one pilot previously expected.
  • Bike/Rail – Following major Spokes campaigns, particularly over bike capacity on rural tourist lines, the PFG promises “dedicated carriages for cycles and outdoor sports equipment on rural routes in the north and west.” 

If you want to read the fuller more hesitant elements in the Spokes article, the link is below:

http://www.spokes.org.uk/2017/09/scottish-government-activates-active-travel/

There are now 5 600 social enterprises in Scotland, up from 5 000 in only 2 years. According to the Social Value Lab which carried out the 2017 census:

‘Social enterprises are organisations that trade for the common good. They address

social needs, strengthen communities, improve people’s life chances and protect the

environment.’

Included in the definition ‘social enterprise’ are charities, voluntary organisations, credit unions, cooperatives and housing associations. You’ll get a fuller picture in the report (link below).

Here are some interesting facts about social enterprises in Scotland:

There are 5 600 in Scotland

79% sell direct to the general public

64% are led by women

The average pay differential is only 1:2.5 [FTSE 100 bosses get 300 times average worker]

81 357 full time workers supported

£3.8 billion total annual income

£287 million surplus

£5 billion net worth

£2 billion contribution to Scottish economy

 

The Scottish Government secretary for communities, said:

‘I have no doubt of the contribution that social enterprises make to our country. They are fantastic examples of what we want to achieve in a fairer Scotland. The government will continue to support social enterprises through our ten-year strategy, investing millions of pounds into the sector. I am proud of all we have achieved, working collaboratively.’

The Third Force report [link below] described Scotland as a ‘world leader’ in developing social enterprises but I could find no hard evidence in the report to back up this statement. Elsewhere I did find these:

‘The Social Enterprise Academy delivers learning and development programmes which have now reached learners in over 30 countries and has hubs developing in 10 locations around the world.’
http://www.senscot.net/view_art.php?viewid=21812

‘A Girvan charity will be hailed as a “world leading social enterprise” at the premiere of a new short film at a major global conference in Peru. The film, being screened for the first time at Unesco’s 4th World Congress of Biosphere Reserves in Lima on 15 March, focuses on the Adventure Centre for Education (ACE) which is located in Scotland’s only biosphere reserve in Galloway and Southern Ayrshire.’ 

http://thirdforcenews.org.uk/tfn-news/social-enterprise-hailed-as-world-leader-by-unesco#KlxQgPui0WWS0Whq.99

Click to access Social-Enterprise-in-Scotland-Census-2017-Full-Report.pdf

Footnote: Is there evidence of any part of the Scottish economy declining at the moment?

(c) http://scienceblogs.com

I didn’t think that headline from Fish Update could be improved upon for eye-catching oddness.

The Madagascar Pochard Duck is close to extinction with as few as 30 birds living wild in one area. Wetland destruction presumably by humans is the cause. The Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust has a programme to save the species by, until they are a more viable population, developing a captive population. They already have 100 birds but I suspect that’s still a long way from a viable population.

The big challenge, however, is how to release the captive-bred ducks back into the wild and this is where we, sometimes a bit wild ourselves, Scots come in. Kames Fish Farming have designed and built a release pen. It’s all very technical so I’ll just quote:

‘Key features of the duck pen included a platform for the birds to preen and rest, ramps to enable access to and from the enclosure, as well as lightweight construction so that it can be easily transported – an important consideration in a country with few roads and no power, transport or lifting equipment in the villages around the release lake. The enclosure for the ducks is made from knotless nylon netting with different mesh sizes to enable the ducks to be easily observed from outside, and also ensure they are secure and minimise the likelihood of predation. To enable the ducks to exit the enclosure, heavy duty zip openings were also included in the design.’

It seems to be working and the prospects for the duck are reasonably good though I can’t help thinking those humans will pose a threat to the returned ducks too at some point in the near future. What would work would be a fund to buy and protect some of the wetlands. Anyone out there fancy starting a crowdfund?

 https://www.fishupdate.com/scottish-net-pen-helps-save-african-duck/

Footnote: The original article was written by a Jenny Hjul. Is that the same Jenny Hjul of the Herald, private school champion and wife of the monstrous Unionist Alan Cochrane of the Daily Torygraph? Has she had an epiphany, dumped those two nasty factors in her life and gone all ecological?

Footnote 2: I though a Madagascar Pochard might look a bit more exotic. I’ve seen better looking ducks in Scotland.

 

https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/scotland-laws-gender-equality-environment-world/