Talking-up Scotland

Photograph: Getty Images

‘No coalition, pacts, or deals with the SNP. And no second independence referendum.’

Those are the words of Richard Leonard. Leonard means ‘as strong as a lion’. So, he’s Richard the Lionheart II. Coincidence or dastardly English plot? He was educated at Pocklington School in the East Riding of Yorkshire. A private school presumably for people planning a career in pockling (‘cheating’ for non-Scots-speakers)? And that ‘no second referendum’ is a gift to the SNP. He didn’t even have to say it.

‘That’s why, under my leadership, voters will know that our support for Scotland’s place in the UK will never be in doubt.’

Those are the words of Anas Sarwar, millionaire son of a Pakistani regional governor, shareholder in a non-unionised, poverty wage-paying, family business and patron of private schooling. I laugh when he uses the word ‘socialism’.

‘I have never considered myself a Unionist’

Those are the words of Alex ‘Gary Tank Commander’s Dad’ Rowley. I hope he goes for it. He hasn’t rejected independence out of hand but a piece in the New Statesman said of him:

‘Rowley will run,’ says one insider, ‘even though he has ideas above his station.’

Ah, is that because he’s both a Scot and working-class? Though currently Deputy Leader, he’s clearly not the right kind of material for leadership of a Scottish socialist party then? Have you heard his accent? We need a millionaire or at least an Englishman.

Footnote: Remember this on Anas’ dad in 1997?

The fate of Glasgow Govan MP Mohammed Sawar, himself a graduate of Glasgow council, hangs in the balance while Strathclyde police continue their investigation into a charge of bribing an election rival. Mr Sawar has been stripped of his parliamentary party privileges pending the outcome of all inquiries and the Govan constituency Labour party has been suspended.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/a-very-nasty-smell-in-labours-backyard-1245183.html

 

Under the headline, ‘Lairds could be forced to sell off land by SNP acreage cap’, the Daily Telegraph warns its readers that the Scottish Government has plans to unjustly strip landowners of swathes of their land.

There isn’t yet any actual policy in place and many land reformers were quite disappointed by the relatively tame legislation that has been passed so far. In particular, the lack of a cap on the total amount one person can own, was heavily criticised. Many readers will know that more than half of Scotland is owned by fewer than 500 people and that Scotland has what has been described as ‘the most inequitable land ownership in the west.’ The map above is evidence of this. I find it shocking to see how little publicly-owned land we have.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/aug/10/scotland-land-rights

What the Telegraph is exercised by is a job advert for researchers to look at how other countries have legislated to ‘limit who can own land and / or how much land any single individual or entity is permitted to own.’

Needless to say, the big landowners and their representative bodies have reacted furiously to the word ‘limit’ and are warning that breaking up large estates will reduce their economic viability and damage the Scottish economy. We’ll see if the researchers report that acreage limits have damaged the economies of Norway or Denmark, for example. I doubt it.

In European countries like Norway a country seven times the size of Scotland there are only 23 estates bigger than 10,000 hectares. In Scotland, there are 144. In Denmark, people are limited to only being able to buy 620 acres of rural land and must live in the country if they wish to buy a holiday home.

https://www.sundaypost.com/news/scottish-news/aristocrats-tycoons-and-billionaires-the-people-who-really-own-scotland-2/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/17/lairds-could-forced-sell-land-snp-acreage-cap/

I appreciate this may not be good news for readers of faith. While I welcome this news, I don’t mean my report to be in any way dis-respectful of those who do adhere to a religion.

A Survation poll for the Humanist Society (Scotland) found that 72.4% of Scots said they were not religious while only 23.6% said they were. This is quite an increase from a similar poll in 2011 in which 56% said they were not religious and 35% said they were.

Official Census statistics are based on a differently worded question where they are asked if they ‘regard themselves as belonging to any particular religion’ tend to return figures suggesting a higher level of religiosity and the Humanist Society have complained that this leads to religious institutions having too much say in society. This, they argue is especially true in education where Scotland’s churches hold the balance of power in local education committees.

The above map gives an idea, based on 2010 statistics of the degree of religiosity across Europe.

Looking at the detail of the Survation poll four days ago which put support for independence at 43%, the figures for Scotland’s largest city stand-out.

57.7% said they had voted for independence in 2014 while 62.4% said they would vote for it now. All the other parts of Scotland recorded less than 50% for this question. Similarly, with regard to SNP support, Glasgow’s figure was 52.8% support while no other region was reported higher than 43%.

I appreciate that Dundee may have recorded similar or better figures than Glasgow but they were bundled with those for North-East Scotland and so not observable.

Finally, asked to what extent they supported the proposed ban on parents smacking their child, Glasgow was the most in favour of the ban with 22.5% ‘strongly opposed’ to smacking and the other regions all recording less than 20% ‘strongly opposed’. Is there a correlation (weak I know) between support for independence for Scotland and for your children?

Click to access Final-SDM-VI-Tables-1c0d1h6-080917MBJRFSTJNHCH-I.pdf

 

(c) jasonlawsonrants.wordpress.com

A final decision by the Scottish Government is due before the end of this year. The Scottish Greens have announced that they feel ‘the end is in sight’, nearly two years after the moratorium preventing any fracking in Scotland and the launch of a research and consultation phase. The moratorium has prevented the kind of disasters we’ve seen in the USA so we must be pleased that we’ve had it but a full ban is now required.

Readers will probably know that the UK government has over-ridden local government objections and popular protest to allow fracking in England to commence. In the US, fracking continues but the future looks uncertain as safety fears mount and sand shortages begin to bite. See these previous pieces on geological barriers, economic concerns, safety fears and the sand shortages:

Why the UK’s geology means fracking will never come to Scotland and should never have been allowed in England because it’s 55 000 000 years too late!

Academic Evidence against fracking in Central Scotland

Expert Opinion on Fracking Health Risks from New York Medical Professionals

The Scottish Third Wave of Oil Productivity is built on solid foundations but those of the Shale Oil Industry are built on sand and on sand that is disappearing fast

All of this makes it a no-brainer for me. Having done the professional, competent government thing with a moratorium and consultation, the Scottish Government has surely confirmed what we opponents of fracking have long known.

I know. What on earth is a MOOC? Well, mature readers, it’s a ‘Massive Open-access Online Course’ put together from mainly existing online resources and structured by academics to help learners work their individualised ways through it. In this case the MOOC is based on the history of the Jacobite rebellions and is designed to take advantage of and hopefully further boost the current boom in Scottish tourism which has in part been credited to the popularity of the Outlander TV series. See these recent reports:

Tourism spending in Scotland surges ahead of UK figure

‘Outlander links see visitors to historic sites soaring’

The MOOC will be titled ‘Bonnie Prince Charlie and The Jacobites’. You can, of course, get an idea of the number of online resources on the period yourself just by Googling ‘Jacobites’. The more independent learners amongst US tourists could probably get by this way, MOOC-free, but I’m sure the course will have added-value and improve the coherence of the experience.

http://www.insider.co.uk/news/legacy-jacobites-online-course-launched-11191208

TechnipFMC, with its Scottish base in Dunfermline’s Pitreavie Business Park [French HQ though], have won what we must assume to be a very large EPCI (Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation) contract for the huge Lancaster field, west of Shetland, recently discovered by Hurricane Energy:

Estimates of Scotland’s oil reserves West of Shetland now massively increased to around 8 billion barrels! ‘A super-resource now on the cards.’

TechnipFMC have more than 40 000 employees, not all in Dunfermline I guess, and:

‘The contract covers the provision of subsea equipment including umbilicals, risers, flowlines and the subsea production system for the Lancaster Early Production System (EPS) Project. In addition, TechnipFMC will also install the subsea equipment, turret buoy and mooring system. The contract will be executed as an integrated Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation (iEPCI) project.’

It’s clear that not enough of the construction work for the North Sea and West of Shetland is done in Scotland so this look like a move in the right direction and follows on from the news in April that the giant Kishorn dry dock which re-opened in August, creating 200 new jobs, will build the turbines for the giant floating windfarm 15km off the coast of Kincardineshire by spring 2018. This looks like being the beginning of the missing link in Scotland’s vibrant renewables sector  too – the actual construction of the turbines.

Re-opened Scottish dock to build state-of-the-art floating windfarm to begin to exploit Scotland’s 25% share of all of Europe’s offshore wind potential

http://www.technipfmc.com/en/media/press-releases/technipfmc-awarded-integrated-epci-contract-for-the-hurricane-lancaster-eps-project-west-of-shetland

Yesterday’s Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times puts support for Independence at 43%. Survation on Friday had it at 46%. The September 11^th Panelbase poll had it at 40%. I take confidence from these three polls saying roughly the same thing and confirming a solid base of 40% plus going into any campaign. Given the scope for further improvements in the Scottish economy, reported repeatedly here, the lack of a coherent rationale or leadership for any No campaign plus the recent news that EU settlers will get a vote and I feel good about the outcome.

There has been some disagreement as to whether the SNP’s strong support for EU membership is a winning card or not. This poll puts support for up from 61% to 65% with only 26% thinking Brexit will leave the Scottish economy stronger, so I’d use it.

Finally, only 32% were opposed to seeking re-admission to the EU with 48% for and 20% undecided. Assuming at least half the undecided choose re-admission, this too seems to suggest the SNP position is the correct one.

Here are the Panelbase/Sunday Times predictions, today, for Scottish seats, should there be another Westminster election soon:

SNP                                          41 (+4)

Conservative                           27 (-2)

Labour                                     24 (-3)

Lib                                            6 (-1)

Green                                      2 (+2)

(Changes since June.)

As Theresa stumbles over Brexit and Boris fumbles, another Westminster election is not that unlikely. The continuing competence of the SNP administration in Scotland, the fading of Corbyn’s appeal to Scottish Labour voters now they see how much of a Unionist he is, the choices they see for Scottish Labour leader and the disappearance of Ruth Davidson as Theresa May makes clear her lack of influence in Brexit negotiations, were bound to start to turn things round for the SNP after the losses in the last Westminster election.

(c) http://ghwashtimes.blogspot.co.uk

Scotland will spend £3 million per year over 5 years from its Climate Justice Fund to help developing countries in Africa who suffer most from climate change to both improve their quality of life and at the same time to reduce their own contribution to that climate change. £600 000 is to be spent on six projects announced in the run-up to Climate Week (18-22 September). They include:

• a solar-powered electricity grid to power a cooling system for milk production (location unspecified);
• upgrading water and electricity infrastructure in a small farming community in Malawi;
• turning waste into energy and recyclable plastic in an urban area of central Zambia;
• improving the nutrition of schoolchildren in Malawi.

These projects come on top of earlier announcements of aid and scientific research contributions from Scottish institutions and scientists. See these recent examples:

Scottish Government small grants worth nearly £500 000 help world’s poorest

Scottish Veterinary researchers working to improve the health and productivity of farmed animals in sub-Saharan Africa.

Climate Change Secretary Roseanna Cunningham said:

‘Climate change is a huge injustice. The poorest and most vulnerable people across the world are the hardest hit, but they have not caused the problem. Scotland has cut its greenhouse gas emissions by over 40% and is championing climate justice because we take our international obligations very seriously and we know that countries like Scotland have a clear moral duty to make sure our lifestyles do not cause harm to the world’s poorest people. I am proud of our innovative Climate Justice Fund which is providing much needed investment to empower many thousands of people in Africa’s most vulnerable communities to find new skills and their own solutions to make them resilient in the face of climate change.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/climate-change-funding

Once more the values expressed in the actions of the Scottish Government contrast sharply with those held by Theresa May and her colleagues. See this from an earlier piece here:

‘David Cameron promised to put a ban on ivory trading in place.  Prince William is a vocal supporter of a ban after seeing the horrors of it in Africa first-hand. Even China has promised a ban by the end of this year and they use it in medicine! However, under pressure from powerful lobby groups such as the British Antique Dealers’ Association (BADA), Theresa has left it out of the manifesto adding her callousness regarding fox-hunting to a shocking disregard for elephants. The BADA president is Lady Victoria Borthwick, Tory MP.’

We have less elephants than Tory MPs in Scotland (none) which is lucky because Theresa has just agreed to turn a blind eye to ivory trading.

Footnote: While we’re on Chinese medicine, Scotland seems likely to help reduce the demand for elephant tusks by selling fallen antlers instead. See:

‘Scottish deer antlers head for Chinese medicine market’

http://www.scotsman.com/business/companies/farming/scottish-deer-antlers-head-for-chinese-medicine-market-1-4533236