Yesterday’s Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times puts support for Independence at 43%. Survation on Friday had it at 46%. The September 11th Panelbase poll had it at 40%. I take confidence from these three polls saying roughly the same thing and confirming a solid base of 40% plus going into any campaign. Given the scope for further improvements in the Scottish economy, reported repeatedly here, the lack of a coherent rationale or leadership for any No campaign plus the recent news that EU settlers will get a vote and I feel good about the outcome.
There has been some disagreement as to whether the SNP’s strong support for EU membership is a winning card or not. This poll puts support for up from 61% to 65% with only 26% thinking Brexit will leave the Scottish economy stronger, so I’d use it.
Finally, only 32% were opposed to seeking re-admission to the EU with 48% for and 20% undecided. Assuming at least half the undecided choose re-admission, this too seems to suggest the SNP position is the correct one.