Scotland has lower poverty rates than England: JRF Excerpt 1

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I think some eye-catching points got lost in my large piece of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation report on Poverty in the UK, so I’m re-posting excerpts:

 

‘Across the four countries of the UK, Wales has consistently had the highest poverty,

only slightly lower than London and similar to the North East. Scotland has generally

had the lowest poverty but has seen a rather different pattern to the rest of the UK –

poverty rose slightly between 1994/97 and then remained constant to 2013/16.’ (P29)

 

Poverty ‘remained constant’ in the face of central Tory austerity cuts? So that’s a wee plus for the Scottish Government?

 

‘However, in the latter part of the 2000s, the picture began to diverge. Scottish pensioners

began to experience slightly lower poverty rates than the other nations and, from 2010/11, Welsh pensioners began to see significant increases in poverty rates.’ (P64)

 

Labour-led devolution in Wales, SNP-led devolution in the latter 2000s in Scotland.

 

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-2017

 

Scotland has more educated workers than England: JRF Excerpt 2

lab workers 480 304

(c) sdi.co.uk

I think some eye-catching points got lost in my large piece of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation report on Poverty in the UK, so I’m re-posting excerpts:

 

‘The proportion of working-age adults with higher education qualifications has nearly

doubled in England, Wales and Scotland; 45% of working-age adults in Scotland, 38% in

England and 35% in Wales have these qualifications.’ (P5)

Clearly comparable, 7% more likely to have HE qualifications in Scotland.

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-2017

Scotland has less domestic violence than England: JRF Excerpt 3

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I think some eye-catching points got lost in my large piece of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation report on Poverty in the UK, so I’m re-posting excerpts:

Domestic violence is for all age and deprivation-level groups, lower than in England. It would be really interesting to have a gender breakdown for the Scottish figures to compare with the shocking level in one of the groups above – 10%!

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-2017

Support for Yes up to 47% before Brexit betrayals and any campaigning for Indyref2

scotlandgeorge

(Pic: Andrew McGowan)

The latest Survation poll for the Daily Record puts support for Scottish Independence into the danger zone for the Union. With a hard Brexit looming, a special deal for Ireland’s security and economy, but none for Scotland’s, another special deal for English car manufacturers but the selling out of the Scottish fishing fleet’s future and campaigning still to begin, the gap looks small and easily bridgeable. Answering the question ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’, the results were:

Yes 47% (+1)
No 53% (-1)

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labours-second-chance-party-11634950

It’s not clear from the Record report whether this was an online of telephone poll and that matters. If it was online, it’s probably about right but if it was a telephone call poll, then it almost certainly understates support for independence as these polls tend to under-represent younger (exclude 16 and 17 year-olds) and poorer voters who increasingly don’t have landlines. The previous Survation telephone poll had Yes down at 39% so this would be quite a swing. See these reservations, from YouGov, about telephone interviews from the opinion polls which got the EU Referendum so wrong:

‘There’s a big difference between the online and telephone polls on the EU referendum – with online polls showing the sides neck-and neck and telephone polls showing about a 15% gap in favour of ‘remain’. Why? It’s striking that both methodologies right across the different polling companies give about the same number to the ‘leave’ campaign, around 40%. The difference is in the ‘remain’ number, which is around 52% from the telephone polls but only 40% for online polls.’

So, commonly, telephone surveys generate conservative, negative or status quo returns. Respondents are more likely to say no to a question about a big change of some kind. I don’t know what effect an English accent would have.

In another YouGov report we read:

‘Now however we can reveal a real, significant and evidence-based difference between the two methodologies that explains why they are divergent and why it is online that appears to be calling it correctly.’

See this online survey report from the, far from sympathetic to Scottish Independence, Scotsman newspaper in June 2016:

‘Nearly six out of 10 Scots say they’d vote Yes in a second independence referendum. In a clear reflection of the growing backlash north of the Border to Thursday’s Brexit result, a ScotPulse online survey of 1,600 Scottish adults on Friday (24 June) showed that 59% of Scots now back leaving the UK.’

Further, not everyone has a landline to be called on. Roughly 20%, especially younger and economically disadvantaged citizens do not have one so cannot be surveyed. As the Herald report points out, the young and the less-well-off are more likely to prefer independence.

Here’s an even more interesting thought, from the USA admittedly:

‘There now may be something unusual about people who are willing to answer the phone to talk with strangers, and we should be sceptical about generalizing from the results of these surveys. It is possible that the new habit of non-phone-answering is evenly distributed throughout the population (thus reducing this as a sampling confound), but this seems unlikely.’

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/commentary-what-explains-difference-between-phone-/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/commentary-what-explains-difference-between-phone-/

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/386778/share-of-calls-enabled-landlines-in-uk-hoseholds/

http://www.scotsman.com/news/poll-puts-support-for-scottish-independence-at-59-1-4163338

http://www.counterpunch.org/2004/09/20/what-if-the-problem-with-phone-polls-is-that-they-are-phone-polls/

In the next few weeks we should see just what the Brexit deal looks like. I can’t see it looking good for Scotland. As it becomes clear we are to get nothing while other interests such as the London Banks, Nissan and Irish affairs are protected, look out for the next opinion polls. As the new Scottish Branch Labour leader exposes his lack of competence again and again, as the Scottish Tories fall further behind and as the SNP manage the economy and services visibly better than Westminster, watch support for the SNP begin to climb again. Finally, as a renewed Yes campaign, energetic and coherent, kicks into action against a No campaign bereft of leadership or a clear rationale, look forward to Indyref2 with confidence. If that’s not enough for you, ask the bookies:

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/03/13/never-mind-the-opinion-polls-or-the-media-or-the-academics-the-bookies-confidently-back-a-yes-vote-in-indyref-2/

 

Extracting the positives for Scottish Government from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation report on Poverty which you are unlikely to hear of elsewhere: Lower poverty, better qualified workers, lower domestic violence, smaller educational gaps and eating just as much fruit!

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Poverty, in its many forms, remains a disgrace in 21st Century Scotland. It is not my purpose here to excuse anything but to inform readers of the areas in which progress has been made especially in the last ten years of SNP government because you won’t hear about it anywhere else.

Good journalism needs context and personalisation. The latter is where you hear victims speak to the camera and it makes you understand how the incident feels. It might make you more empathetic if you need more. Contextualisation is where you here how the incident relates to similar incidents in the past or in other places so that you can judge how common it is here or in other places and so worry more, or less, about it. Increasingly, however mainstream media including trusted agencies are neglecting the wider context. Where the news is about bad about Scotland, a bit of context might make it seem less so. The JRF report is full of context. Let me know, if you can bear to, if there’s much in our mainstream Unionist media.

There are endless opportunities for opponents of the Scottish Government to ignore the wider UK and historical context and find examples of persisting poverty in Scotland and by association blame them. Most obviously, they will spend little or no time allocating the blame where it lies with current and former Tory/New Labour administrations at Westminster going back for decades. Equally, they will not find space to note any initiatives from the Scottish Government which have protected our poor from the worst excesses of recent Tory austerity. So, here is some of the evidence of that in recent improvements or even of lack of decline.

‘Across the four countries of the UK, Wales has consistently had the highest poverty, only slightly lower than London and similar to the North East. Scotland has generally had the lowest poverty but has seen a rather different pattern to the rest of the UK – poverty rose slightly between 1994/97 and then remained constant to 2013/16.’ (P29)

Poverty ‘remained constant’ in the face of central Tory austerity cuts? So that’s a wee plus for the Scottish Government?

‘However, in the latter part of the 2000s, the picture began to diverge. Scottish pensioners began to experience slightly lower poverty rates than the other nations and, from 2010/11, Welsh pensioners began to see significant increases in poverty rates.’ (P64)

Labour-led devolution in Wales, SNP-led devolution in the latter 2000s in Scotland.

‘In England and Northern Ireland, at age 16, young people from poorer backgrounds are around a third less likely to achieve good qualifications; in Wales they are about half as likely and in Scotland a fifth less likely. These results are not directly comparable between the four parts of the UK as both measurement and educational systems vary considerably, but it is clear that young people from poorer backgrounds across the UK are much less likely to achieve good qualifications, putting them at much higher risk of continuing to live in poverty as adults.’ (P 5)

Not ‘directly comparable’ but still comparable to some extent?

‘The proportion of working-age adults with higher education qualifications has nearly doubled in England, Wales and Scotland; 45% of working-age adults in Scotland, 38% in England and 35% in Wales have these qualifications.’ (P5)

Clearly comparable, 7% more likely to have HE qualifications in Scotland.

Looking at a summary of trends in mental health care over last 20yrs, we read this somewhat minimalist statement for the poorest fifth of the population:

Adult physical health (UK, working-age adults) – Worse

Adult mental health (England) – Worse

Adult mental health (Scotland) – Better

Young people’s mental health – No change (P9)

I know there’s an awful lot left to be done here but the context is at least encouraging.

‘There have been large variations in the patterns [of housing benefits claimants] across different parts of the UK. The highest   of claimants affected have been in the North West and Scotland, followed by London and the West Midlands. The lowest number of claimants affected was in the South West. The largest falls have been in the North West and London. The smallest falls have been in Scotland. Scotland has low proportions of one-bedroom dwellings, and the Scottish Government has provided substantial funding to supplement discretionary housing payments to mitigate the impact of the policy.’ (P41)

I don’t think I need explain this one.

‘The proportion of people eating the recommended amount of fruit and vegetables each day varies across income groups. Over a third (39%) of people in the richest fifth of the population eat the recommended amount, falling to only 15% of those in the poorest fifth. There are no significant differences between England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.’ (P79)

See, English comedians, and some Scots too?

Coming next another unfair Scottish stereotype, see this graph of domestic violence on page 84:

domv

Domestic violence is for all age and deprivation-level groups, lower in Scotland than in England. It would be really interesting to have a precise gender breakdown for the Scottish figures to compare with the shocking level in one of the groups above – 10%!

‘In England, the proportion of children reaching a good level of development at age five has increased, but the attainment gap has remained fairly constant at 20 percentage points. The attainment gap remains fairly constant through primary school, meaning that the difference in attainment between those from richer and poorer backgrounds remains around 20 percentage points at age 11. This gap widens through secondary school, to around 28 percentage points by age 16 and 25 percentage points at age 19. In Scotland, children aged five living in the most deprived areas were 16 percentage points less likely to reach the expected standard in reading, and 14 percentage points less likely in numeracy than those living in the least deprived areas. By age 11, these gaps increased to more than 20 percentage points. They remained at this level in the results of school leavers (age 16), having fallen from 33 percentage points in 2009/10.’ (P87)

I’ve taken out the Wales and N Ireland figures from the above long paragraph, to simplify the reading of this. It would have been better in a table but, what is clear, first, is that the attainment gap is only the same for 11-year-olds in both countries at 20% but the gap for 5-year-olds is only 16% in Scotland compared to 20% in England and for 16-year-olds the gap in Scotland is only 20% compared to 28% in England. Second, note the massive fall in the gap from 33% to 20% in the period of SNP Government.

From: ‘UK Poverty 2017 A comprehensive analysis of poverty trends and figures’ Report by the JRF Analysis Unit

Scotland continues to attract EU migrants as overall UK numbers plummet

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In the 12 months to June, net migration from the EU to the UK fell by 106 000 to 230 000 with only London, the South-East and Scotland showing increases. Scotland attracted 11 000, up from 7 000 in the previous year. This presumably reflects the overall health of the Scottish economy and the welcoming statements made repeatedly by the First Minister and colleagues. See:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-seeks-guarantee-on-rights-of-eu-nationals-in-scotland-post-brexit-vote-a7115896.html

The data from the Institute for Public Policy Research and reported in the Guardian, reveals tremendous variation across the UK and suggests very strongly the need for a more flexible policy that allows the three areas with the greatest demand to allow greater migration and which incentivises migration to those areas apparently less-appealing or welcoming.

It is clear than most areas in the UK will suffer economically from this trend given the contribution migrants make to the economy and to the viability of services such as the NHS. See:

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scotland-s-eu-migrants-contribute-over-4-billion-each-year-1-4607934

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/07/nhs-staff-crisis-means-eu-workers-should-get-right-stay-post/

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/02/sharp-drop-in-net-migration-of-eu-citizens-outside-south-east-england

 

Will Scottish Tories revolt to help save devolution?

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I know they generally revolt but might they be about to do something good for Scotland? There are 111 powers which the current Brexit legislation would transfer directly to Westminster. A recent Survation poll showed that 62% of Scots want them to come home automatically:

https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/brexit-poll-62-of-scots-want-european-powers-moved-to-holyrood-after-eu-exit/

Exactly the same figure as in the vote! No converts to either side? See this for the full list:

Scottish Government will say NO to any power grab in the EU withdrawal bill. Up to 111 powers are at risk. Will it make any difference though?

However, according to the Daily Torygraph yesterday:

‘David Davis is preparing to redraft parts of the Government’s Brexit legislation in order to head off a revolt by Scottish Conservative MPs and the Scottish National Party. The Brexit Secretary has conceded that the Withdrawal Bill will have to be amended to address concerns that the current version of the legislation would result in a “power grab” by Whitehall.’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/02/brexit-legislation-expected-redrawn-head-revolt-scottish-tories/

We’ve already had the story that the Scottish Tories were solely responsible for the Police and Fire services VAT u-turn by the chancellor and the story of the nice young Tory MP, Douglas Ross, supporting the WASPI case on pensions for women born in the 50s. Having fallen back into third place in Scottish voting intention polls and noting the Survation poll results, the Scottish Tories do need all the help they can get. However, as the DUP prove themselves unreliable and unpredictable (unless you know the Old Testament very well) does Tory Central realise they need to ensure the loyalty of their Scottish branch more than they thought they did? The question is, just how many of the 111 powers matter to the Scottish Tories?

Scotland’s world-leading expertise to the fore again in India and Bangladesh

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We’ve already seen reports of Scottish scientists and researchers working to improve the health, economic circumstances of the poor, across the globe. With particular regard to India and Bangladesh, Scots are involved in helping to remove arsenic from water supplies, in improving agriculture and in reducing diabetes. See these:

Scottish university research to help developing nations remove arsenic from water supplies

Scottish research to be used in $1.2 billion initiative to help poor Indian farmers

University of Dundee awarded £7 million to work in partnership with India to fight diabetes

Now, we see from news.gov.scot:

‘Specialist expertise from Scotland is to help grow and sustain new social enterprises in India, following collaboration between the two countries. Leading social enterprise development organisation, The Social Enterprise Academy, has launched its first base in India supported by the Scottish Government.’

Due to Scotland’s world-leading status in social enterprise creation, Edinburgh will host the Social Enterprise World Forum in 2018.

https://news.gov.scot/news/scotland-and-india-collaborate-on-social-enterprise

Scotland exceeds IVF treatment waiting time target by 10% while only 12% of English health boards even offer the full service at all

Screenshot-2017-12-2 2017-11-28-IVF-Summary pdf

In Scotland, 100% of patients were screened for IVF treatment within 365 days. The 90% target has continued to be met since reporting started two years ago.

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Waiting-Times/Publications/2017-11-28/2017-11-28-IVF-Summary.pdf?16668337584

In England, only 12% of boards actually offer the national best practice guidance level of three full cycles, at all. The Campaign group, Fertility Fairness, has criticised boards for arbitrary cuts and the creation of a ‘postcode lottery’ in England. In sharp contrast IVF access is nationally standardised in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/ivf-nhs-treatment-fertility-lists-wait-patients-lottery-budget-cuts-a8028116.html

Do the DUP know about this? I feel sure IVF is not in the Old Testament. The Scottish system has been described as the ‘gold standard’ with three full cycles and commenced often well within target time limits.

In England, according to Fertility Fairness, more than 80 per cent of CCGs fail to commission the recommended three full cycles of IVF in line with official guidelines. 125 of them fund one cycle of treatment. 46 of them fund two cycles of treatment and only 34 of them fund three cycles. Four of them do not fund any treatment whatsoever.

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/health/scotland-ivf-treatment-nhs-funding-uk/

Eleanor Bradford would have loved this story.

SNP act to maintain Scotland’s competitive advantage in GP staffing and satisfaction

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Picture: Getty Images

The Scottish Government has put in place several actions which it is expected will increase the number of GPs in Scotland by at least 800 over the next ten years. The actions include:

  • Funding of £100 million next year to support implementation of the new proposed GP contract, agreed jointly with the British Medical Association (BMA), which will be voted on by GPs across the country in the coming weeks
  • Continued professional development and mentoring support for GPs in their first five years of their career and coaching sessions to encourage and support GPs towards the end of their careers
  • A new staying in practice scheme for those near the end of their career considering leaving general practice early
  • Running an intensive recruitment campaign to boost the number of GPs who wish to work in Scotland
  • Continuing to provide bursaries for a number of GP training places in specific areas to make it a more attractive proposition

https://news.gov.scot/news/800-more-gps-for-scotland

Regular readers will already know Scotland has more GPs per head of population than any other part of the UK, that research in 2015 revealed them to feel less stressed or over-worked than those in other parts and that the new contract being offered to them in considered by the BMA to be superior to that being offered in England and Wales. See these for detail:

Already the best staffed and least stressed in the UK, Scottish GPs to get better contracts

New Scottish GP contract rated far superior, by BMA, to English equivalent as Scottish GP numbers hold steady and NHS England loses 1 000 in one year!