Talking-up Scotland

We’ve seen numerous reports that the North Sea is finished as a major producer of oil often used to justify attacks on the future viability of the Scottish economy after independence. See for example:

An Edinburgh University Professor says North Sea oil and gas has only ten years left while the Wall Street Journal describes it as an ‘oil hot spot’ and Oil and Gas UK doesn’t recognise his figures. Who’s right?

Since the above gloomy and clearly ill-informed piece by a professor, there have been numerous reports of a long life in the North Sea oilfields which would last well into the first decades of Scottish independence. See:

More evidence that North Sea oil has years of wealth generation still in it.

Now, the Chesnut field, 125 miles north-east of Aberdeen has had its production expectancy extended from 3 to 12 years after new owners, Spirit Energy, added a third well. This has saved 70 jobs too.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/159762/spirit-energy-field-given-new-lease-life-35m-investment/

Like many readers, I welcome Scotland’s massive growth in renewables energy production, but it remains important, I think, to be able to slap down Unionist fibs and propaganda by omission, suggesting we would have no meaningful revenue from the North Sea. With our crude currently selling at around $66pb with costs as low as $12pb and Saudi predictions of $75pb to £100pb over the next few years, a Scottish Treasury would have considerable opportunities to tax this flow of wealth.

(c) bbc.co.uk

All English hospital trusts charge staff and patients for car parking. Around half of them charge disabled people for parking in disabled spaces. Only three Private Finance Initiative hospital car parks in Scotland at Edinburgh, Glasgow and Dundee charge.

A study reported in the Guardian today said:

‘Overall, the study found that NHS trusts netted £120,662,650 in 2015/16 in car park charges, up from £114,873,867 the year before. About 27 trusts provided data on parking fines, showing they made just over £2.3m in fines over a four-year period. In 2015/16 alone, £635,387 was made from fining patients, visitors and staff on hospital grounds. The investigation also found that almost half of all NHS trusts charge disabled people for parking in some or all of their disabled spaces.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/dec/28/hospitals-in-england-net-more-money-than-ever-from-car-park-charges

They’re getting better at it. You can see how much each of trusts made here:

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-12-21/how-much-money-did-your-local-nhs-trust-make-from-parking-fees/

As for Scotland, the BBC website reported:

‘Patients and NHS staff have saved some £13m since hospital car parking charges were abolished more than four years ago, the Scottish Government says. Parking has been free for patients, visitors and staff at most Scottish hospitals since 31 December 2008. But charges remain at car parks built under the private finance initiative (PFI) at three hospitals in Edinburgh, Glasgow and Dundee.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22231173

I suppose, to be fair, the English trusts probably need the money to fund their efforts to catch up on NHS Scotland’s better performance in treatment and care of patients and to reward junior doctors with a better contract like the Scottish one. See:

NHS Health Check: Which part of the UK is doing the best?

‘NHS across UK has much to learn from Scotland?’ The King’s Fund told us this in 2013!

They haven’t? Where could the money be going? Not in senior staff bonuses surely?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/12077917/NHS-hospital-bosses-given-pay-rises-worth-more-than-a-nurses-annual-salary.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/02/nhs-chief-on-record-60000-a-month-as-numbers-off-payroll-soar/

I just googled ‘NHS chief bonuses.’ Those are only the first two of many. Another wee sign that we are different?

(c) holyrood.com

The Scotsman today headlined:

‘The bill for supply teachers in Scotland has topped £81 million, sparking calls for the Scottish Government to review its deal on teacher pay.’

This was based on a Freedom of Information request by the Liberal Democrats and showed that Scotland’s local authorities spent £81.5 million on supply teachers. The implication in the headline and the report was that the fault lies with the Scottish Government and, in particular, with its pay deal failing to attract and retain teachers.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/education/bill-for-supply-teachers-in-scotland-reaches-81m-1-4648488

However, a quick search revealed that the situation in Scotland is clearly being better managed than that in England where £1.2 billion was spent on supply teachers in roughly the same period. This suggests spending was approximately 50% higher than in Scotland. An investigation by ITV found the above figure and noted that this was an increase of 42% over the last three years. The Sun picked up on the report and headlined it

‘SHAMBOLIC’ SCHOOL SERVICE: Recruitment agencies rake in millions as schools spend £1.26bn hiring supply teachers to cover sick staff’

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1912066/recruitment-agencies-rake-in-millions-as-schools-spend-1-26bn-hiring-supply-teachers-to-cover-sick-staff/

Explaining the difference in the spending is easy. Scottish schools are better staffed and have less need of supply cover.

There are now 543 more teachers in Scottish schools. In 2017, only 631 P1 pupils were taught in classes of more than 26 compared to 16 845 in 2006 at the end of the Lab/Lib Dem coalition.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/620825/SFR25_2017_MainText.pdf

There are 51 500 teachers in Scottish schools and the pupil/teacher ratio is now 13.6 pupils per teacher, down from (better than) 13.7 in 2016. This ratio is an important indicator of the time teachers have to engage with pupils and is likely to have played a major part in narrowing attainment gaps.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0052/00528868.pdf

In England, there were 457 300 teachers in 2016, up by 400 from 2015. The pupil/teacher ratio in 2016 was 17.6 pupils per teacher. England’s population is almost exactly ten times that of Scotland, so you might have expected there to be around 515 000 teachers there. The increase of 400 teachers, in England, from 2015 to 2016, is small when compared with the Scottish Government’s increase of 543 between 2016 and 2017 in a country with a tenth of the population.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/620825/SFR25_2017_MainText.pdf

SNP Government increases teacher numbers to create far superior pupil/teacher ratios and much smaller attainment gaps than in England

Finally, there is no evidence that the Scottish pay deal is failing to retain teachers. See:

Scottish Teachers Less Likely to Consider Quitting

(c) quora.com: Scotland’s oilfields

Reported in Energy Voice today, anonymous Saudi sources, presumably from Aramco, predict that crude oil will rise to $75 per barrel. This is not that shocking a claim given the Aramco chief predicted massive shortages and prices rising to $100 per barrel, only months ago. See:

Will Scotland’s oil hit $100 (or more?) a barrel again after 2020?

Investors already betting on $100 per barrel oil in 2018? Indyref2 should be a very different story

Brent crude prices have already risen to $66.87 per barrel, this week, from $27.67 in early 2016, due in major part to Saudi-led output cuts and growing demand from Asia. Production costs have also fallen to £12 per barrel creating enormous profit margins for the major producers. I don’t know if the Scottish media or the Treasury have noticed yet. See:

Scottish oil expected to hit $68 per barrel, up 146% on 2016’s low with production costs falling below $15 per barrel and ‘peak oil’ still to come

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/159835/saudis-seen-counting-80-surge-oil-income-balance-books/

Indyref2 sooner than later?

Under the headline: ‘More than 270,000 Scots in ‘insecure’ work despite fall in zero hours contracts’, the Herald, yesterday, announced:

‘An analysis by the Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe), commissioned by Scottish Labour, found that an estimated 274,000 people in Scotland have unreliable incomes, including 71,000 on zero hours contracts with no guarantee of work. Another 160,000 are in low paid self-employment and 43,000 are in insecure temporary jobs.’

To be fair, six paragraphs in, they did acknowledge:

‘However, figures also show that the number of people employed in zero-hours contracts in Scotland has fallen by 7000 in the past year, and the percentage of workers on these arrangements is lower in Scotland that the UK as a whole and England or Wales.’

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15792462.More_than_270_000_Scots_in___39_insecure__39__work_despite_fall_in_zero_hours_contracts/

So, what are the figures for England and Wales? How much lower are the Scottish figures? Are the numbers falling there too? The Herald article doesn’t say. I searched and searched. The SPICEe and Office for National Statistics sites had nothing. Only the Herald, of several Scottish media reports, even mentioned that levels were lower in Scotland. When I searched the UK media for ‘insecure employment’, I found no reports. It’s clearly only a story in Scotland because of the Labour Branch investigation. However, I did find this from 2016:

‘4.5 million people in insecure work, reveals Citizens Advice

Four and a half million people in England and Wales are in insecure work, reveals new analysis by Citizens Advice.’

https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/about-us/how-citizens-advice-works/media/press-releases/45-million-people-in-insecure-work-reveals-citizens-advice/

Now, England and Wales have a joint population of 56 million. Scotland has a population of 5.3 million, or 9.4%. If insecure employment is reasonably evenly spread across the three countries than Scotland should have around 423 000 people in insecure employment, yet Scottish Labour are screaming that it is 274 000 or 149 000 less than you’d expect. That would mean insecure employment is 54% more common in England and Wales.

Maybe the Citizens Advice figures are high but unless I can see the SPICEe data what can I do? It is strange that we don’t read any figure for how much lower it is, anywhere, and SPICEe have not published it. Does the Labour Branch have ownership of the findings?

If insecure employment is considerably less common in Scotland, then that would fit with other trends here such as:

With 1 in 4 living wage employers already in Scotland, the Scottish Government aims to make this a ‘Living Wage Nation’

 

(c) Andrew Milligan / PA Wire

Because of changes in the recent budget, Trump Turnberry no longer qualifies for a tax break. Only properties valued at £1.5 million or below that, qualify. Trump Turnberry is now valued at £1.65 million and the golf course in Aberdeenshire doesn’t qualify at all as it’s defined as a golf course and not a hotel.

I know the Donald is temporarily disengaged from the family empire while he is president eject, but we can only hope he hears about this somehow.

(c) AFP

Not to be confused with those ethnic nationalists, Britain First, who want to put Britain first on every issue regardless, this is another case of the Scottish Government humanely putting others first as in the ban on smoking in public places, minimum pricing of alcohol, compensating for the bedroom tax, action against sanitary poverty in schools and colleges, free care for the disabled, licensing air weapons, housing first for the homeless and several other initiatives that suggest they are attempting to ‘work as if they are living in the early days of a better nation’ (Dennis Leigh via Alasdair Gray, 1984).

According to the Independent today:

‘Scotland has banned the use of wild animals in circuses, becoming the first of the UK’s nations to do so. Under new legislation passed by the Scottish Parliament, travelling circuses that use wild animals will be banned from entering the country. The new measure is likely to place fresh pressure on UK Government to follow suit. Animal rights campaigners welcomed the ban, saying it would help stop animal suffering.’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/circus-wild-animal-ban-scotland-use-travelling-rights-protection-a8122546.html

No doubt some of the abovementioned actions will seem like ‘nanny statism’ to some and I do remember, in the 60s and 70s, people making such a comment against the governments of the day and their major institutions like the NHS as they were perceived to be interfering in individual choice too much. However, having tasted the ‘freedoms’ given back and gleefully grabbed by the corporations, by the neo-liberal governments of the 80s and after, take me back to those optimistic, less-unequal, unionised, protected and regulated days of the 70s.

Good will to all livingkind.

Back in mid-September, Panelbase had support at 43% and Survation had it at 46%. An earlier Panelbase poll had it at only 40% but a new Panelbase poll for Wings over Scotland puts support at 49% for an independent Scotland in the EU. Remember, this is all before we see the Brexit deal or no deal, before campaigning begins, before Boris nearly starts a war with Russia or some other country, before we see NHS England in meltdown before our eyes, on the BBC News at 6, and before the strengthening Scottish economy becomes more widely known than the Unionist media are desperately trying to prevent us knowing.

With a Yes campaign anything like the vital and inclusive, social-media-based, phenomenon we saw in 2014, we can surely push this over the line. The odds are it’ll be even stronger this time with more youngsters and senior citizens on the streets and online, battering the Unionist arguments to death, but with a winning smile.

As for the No campaign, they’re even worse-off for leadership or a coherent rationale than they were in 2014. Labour and the Tories won’t stand together this time and their leadership is even less impressive than Darling, Brown and Cameron were. I know, that takes some doing. As for Better Together, that’s a busted flush as we’re thrown out of the EU, as the frigates, less of them, get built in places other than the Clyde and as the Royal Navy becomes a laughing stock.

Happy New Year!

http://www.scottishrenewables.com/sectors/renewables-in-numbers/

In 2016, 54% of our gross electricity demand was met by renewables from a total capacity of 8 662MWh or 8.6GWh (see graph above). That suggests our total demand is typically no more than 17 000MWh or 1.7GWh though this is falling. It fell by 15.4% to 2014 against a target fall of 12% by 2020. This is at least in part due to home improvements with 92% of Scottish homes now having at least 100mm of loft insulation installed.

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/01/3414/6

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0051/00514475.pdf

 

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0052/00529612.pdf

Current supply (September 2017) is 9.7GWh and is projected to reach 21.3GWh before 2020 (see graph above). This suggests oversupply of at least 5GWh which can be exported. Though a relatively modest figure, it can be added to the overall energy exports from Scotland. 73% of all primary energy worth £16 billion is exported to rUK and beyond.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0051/00514475.pdf

Remember ‘exports’ of energy to rUk are not included in Scotland’s already healthy, and unique in the UK, trade surplus figure.

Also, remember, the Herrod newspaper, in 2015, publishing this below?

‘Only those of a certain age can now remember candle-lit nights of the 1970s, so it is not surprising that Scots are complacent about “security of supply” – the assumption that the lights will always respond to a flick of the switch. That complacency may be set to change, at least to the extent that we may need to start thinking about importing power to keep the lights on’

http://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/13203794.Stakes_are_rising_on_keeping_Scotland_s_lights_on/

Stop it, my sides hurt!

 

From the BBC report:

‘Parents of premature babies who are being cared for in hospital are to be given extra financial support. The Scottish government is introducing a new £1.5m family fund to help with additional costs such as travel to the hospital and food and drink.  About 4,400 babies are born prematurely every year in Scotland and the extra cost to parents is over £200 a week. Health Secretary Shona Robison confirmed the money would be available from 1 April next year.’

Shona gets another three sentences to explain the fund. Needless to say, the SNP doesn’t get a mention, but Labour Central Scotland list MSP, Mark Griffin, certainly does. He gets eight paragraphs apparently because his own baby was born early and he’s a campaigner for the charity, Bliss.

By the time you’ve finished reading, it looks like that rarest of things, a Labour policy achievement.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-42449572

The new fund is, of course, just another of the many humane and compassionate SNP initiatives to protect the Scottish people from the worst of Tory austerity. Remember when Labour used to do that? No, of course you don’t. They never did.

You might, however, remember these:

Author AL Kennedy defends Scotland as more caring than ‘austerity England’

Scottish Government continues to fight brutal Westminster austerity politics

Landmark study links Tory austerity to 120,000 deaths

Scottish Government fights to protect against the effects of Tory austerity cuts.

I suppose you have to admire BBC Scotland’s determination to get Labour into stories.