Talking-up Scotland

The Herald and the Scotsman, today, headline:

Labour has a ‘huge problem’ with anti-Semitism, Scottish members in Scotland

‘Eddie Izzard warns Labour must ‘repair damage’ from anti-semitism storm’

Any fool can see this ‘storm’ is being whipped up by the anti-Corbyn faction still in the Labour Party, as part of another attempted coup to unseat him. Of course, the Tory press are delighting in it too.

However, a side effect has been the Scottish press failing to clarify the important fact that there is no evidence, at all, of anti-semitism in the Labour Party’s Scottish branch because, in the main, there is no evidence at all of a serious problem of anti-semitism in Scotland. Surely as Scottish newspapers, they feel obliged to clarify this kind of thing for their readers?

The Herald included further comment like:

‘Labour has a ‘huge problem’ with anti-Semitism, claims Scottish party members. Prominent Labour members in Scotland have said there is a “huge problem” with anti-Semitism in the party amid fresh claims of abuse by Jeremy Corbyn supporters.’

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16131329.Labour_has_a__huge_problem__with_anti_Semitism__claims_Scottish_party_members/

Now, I know that doesn’t say there is a problem with anti-semitism in Scotland but neither does it provide the evidence, which is available, that it isn’t. I think that’s important for accuracy and clarity.

The Scotsman went on to say:

‘Labour moved to distance itself from a series of pro-Corbyn social media groups after an investigation found they contained hundreds of messages promoting Holocaust denial and hate towards Jews. Shadow digital minister Liam Byrne admitted there was “real alarm” at the scale of the problem.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/eddie-izzard-warns-labour-must-repair-damage-from-anti-semitism-storm-1-4716634

Once again, that doesn’t say there is a problem with anti-semitism in Scotland but neither does it or the full text provide the evidence, which is available, that it isn’t. Again, I think that’s important for accuracy and clarity.

Now, here is the actual evidence from, the Community Security Trust ‘Anti-semitic Incidents 2017 Report’:

There had been 1 382 incidents in the UK in 2017 up 3% from 1 346 in 2016 (p34). So, not much of a surge overall but there had been a 34% increase in physical assaults from 108 in 2016 to 145 in 2017.

On the same page of the report, I found a breakdown revealing that of the 1 382 incidents, only 16 had occurred in Scotland, up 1 from 15 in 2016.

With 8% of the population, only 1.15% of all anti-Semitic incidents took place in Scotland.

‘Incidents’ included tweets and shouts from passing cars. In the report, no cases of physical assault in Scotland were reported. Only two examples were offered, one was a tweet and the other was an insult from a shopkeeper angered by Israeli attacks in Gaza. So, there almost certainly had been no physical assaults at all in Scotland

https://cst.org.uk/public/data/file/a/b/IR17.pdf

Attacks on NHS Scotland and Police Scotland are clearly part of a proxy war against the SNP being mounted on a regular basis by the opposition parties using their willing supporters in our mainstream media. This is merely the latest but also typical in its misuse of statistics to create what is essentially a form of fake news for propagandistic purposes.

Here are the headlines in the article:

‘Police spend £115m on overtime as officer headcount falls.’

‘There are 240 fewer police officers in Scotland today than there were in 2013.’

‘Police Scotland has spent more than £115m on overtime in the last five years, while the number of officers has fallen.’

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1411555-police-spend-115m-on-overtime-as-officer-headcount-falls/

First, it is only when your read on that you see the overtime figure has been made as big as possible for a nice Daily Mail-like headline by adding up the figures for five years and by including support staff. So, overtime spend on  officers was, on average, only £20 million per year spent across a force of 17 250 officers or, on average, £1159 per annum or £22 per week or about 1 hour of overtime per week. To run any large organisation with variable staffing and demand across the country, managers need a bit of flexibility and 1 hour of overtime per member of staff per week seems pretty unremarkable to me.

 

Second, while it may be true that there are fewer officers than in 2013, this is a carefully selected but unimportant point within a bigger trend. In Scotland, contrary to some reporting, police numbers have increased. Here are the actual data presented in a detailed and statistically meaningful way:

 ‘As at 30 June 2017, there were 17 249 full-time equivalent (FTE) police officers in Scotland.  This is an increase of 1 015 police officers from the position at 31 March 2007 (+6.3 per cent). Police officer numbers have decreased by 7 FTE officers in the last quarter, since 31 March 2017, and increased by 7 FTE officers in the last year since 30 June 2016.’

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/TrendPolice

Third, all good journalism needs context to enable readers to judge how good or bad the news is. See this:

‘Meanwhile, official figures show that the number of police officers in England and Wales has fallen by 930 in the past 12 months, to 121 929, the lowest level since comparable records began in 1996. Police officer numbers are now 22 424 below their peak in 2009, when there were 144 353 officers.’

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/25/knife-and-gun-rises-sharply-in-england-and-wales

What do these figures mean in terms of the ratio of police officers to members of the public? See this:

Population England and Wales is 56 million

Number of police officers in 2017 was 121 929

Population Scotland is 5.3 million

Number of police officers in 2017 was 17 249

Ratio of population to officers England and Wales: 459/1

Ratio of population to officers Scotland: 307/1

So, as with teachers, nurses, and GPs, Scotland has a much better ratio of police officers to members of the public and thus presumably presence on the streets.

Finally, it is only in the very last line of their report that STV think to mention

‘The number of crimes recorded by police has also fallen by more than a third over the last decade.’

Isn’t this a hugely important consideration? Police Scotland with SNP Government funding has maintained its staffing as crime falls and Policing in England has seen a massive decline in staffing, under Theresa as Home Secretary, as murder in London surpasses that in New York:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/london-murder-rate-overtakes-new-york-for-first-time-ever-after-spate-of-fatal-stabbings-and-a3803566.html

https://beta.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2016-17/pages/4/

The Scotsman, building their piece around Lib Dem MSP Liam McArthur, wrote with wrong-headed hyperbole set to stun:

‘MSP urges independent review of crisis-hit police: Police Scotland today faces calls for an independent review into its operation in order to trigger an “honest conversation” about where it has gone wrong over the last five years. For five stormy years, Police Scotland has been mired in controversies that have seen the departure of two chief constables, rows over police accountability and concern over operational policing.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/msp-urges-independent-review-of-crisis-hit-police-1-4716392

Informed by Tory MSP, Margaret Mitchell, BBC Scotland wrote:

‘Police Scotland in particular has faced criticism over a number of issues. The service is currently looking for its third chief, while the Scottish Police Authority (SPA) – one of several bodies created by the legislation – is on its third chief and third chairperson.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-43606102

STV News added Scottish Labour justice spokesman Daniel Johnson who said:

‘The committee must assess how this turmoil has affected policing and public safety.The SNP Government must acknowledge these issues and their own mistakes to improve Police Scotland over the next five years, rather than the same old intransigence they have shown over the past five years.’

STV, to be fair, did insert this telling little snippet at the end:

‘Despite criticism, national statistics published this week show crime in Scotland has fallen by around a third and 58% of respondents said police were doing a good or excellent job.’

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1411525-inquiry-into-police-scotland-and-sfrs-five-years-on/

The above comment only in the STV report reminds us of the key indicator of success by any police force – levels of crime.

I’m not saying the cases of spying and the instability in the top post don’t matter but they and the cases of failure, in two specific cases, matter much less than the overall performance of the force as evidenced in crime levels experienced across millions of citizens. Looking at the graph, above, we see crime continue to fall fast after the creation of Police Scotland. This is not evidence of a ‘crisis-hit’ service, or of ‘stormy years’ or of ‘turmoil’.

If crime continues to fall fast, most of us are satisfied and all we see wrong is a change in leadership and two sad but rare failures, then Police Scotland is a success.

(c) Shutterstock

From the Halifax 2018 Rural Areas Quality of Life Survey, here are the top 5:

1. 1. Orkney Islands, Scotland
2. Rutland, East Midlands
3. Wychavon, West Midlands
4. Winchester, South East
5. Waverley, South East

The study looked at aspects of life including employment and education as well as social and environmental factors, to make the findings. This is the second year in a row for Orkney to come top.

It’s good to see Monty Python’s favourite, Rutland, coming in second. Scotland’s only other entry in the top 50, Shetland came in 41^st. So, overall, maybe it’s not such good news. You have to wonder if they looked properly at parts of rural East Lothian, Dumfries and Galloway, Perthshire and eastern Fife, to name a few.

(c) gponline.com

From the Scottish Government news website, today:

‘Backed by investment of £110 million in 2018-19 and jointly developed with the BMA, it will ensure GPs can spend more time with the patients who need them most by ensuring patients can access the right person at the right time. Over the next three years, it will expand the team of healthcare professionals working in general practice such as practice nurses, physiotherapists and pharmacists. A new short life working group, chaired by Professor Sir Lewis Ritchie, is also being established to ensure the contract is delivered in a way that works well for rural and remote parts of the country.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/historic-new-gp-contract-agreed

When the Scottish contract was first introduced in January, the BMA contrasted it very favourably with that on offer in England and Wales. The BMA told the GP’s newsletter, Pulse (‘At the heart of general practice since 1960’), that the new Scottish contract is an ‘ambitious departure’ from the rest of the UK and that it will make the profession attractive again. See this from the Pulse report:

‘The 70-page document marks the most radical redrawing of general practice anywhere in the UK since 2004, with GP partners promised a guaranteed minimum income of at least £80k; direct reimbursement of expenses, longer consultations with more complex patients and the transfer of workload to the NHS with no loss of funding. But it is perhaps the whole theme of the document that is refreshing. The reassertion of the GP role as the ‘expert medical generalist’; the citation of Barbara Starfield’s ‘four Cs’ (contact, comprehensiveness, continuity and coordination) as ‘guiding principles’ and the whole emphasis on reducing workload and risk. It all makes the GP Forward View in England look rather cold and mechanistic, rather like a Haynes manual put next to a glossy brochure for a new car.’

Also speaking to Pulse, the Scottish GP Committee chair Dr Alan McDevitt said: ‘he was confident that the proposals would offer stability and make the profession attractive to young doctors.’

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/views/editors-blog/have-scottish-gps-reached-the-promised-land/20035667.article

This comes at a time when GP numbers are falling fast in England with around 1 000 lost in one year despite the recruitment of 3 000 GPs from Europe and beyond:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/gps-nhs-numbers-drop-doctors-quit-workload-pensions-pay-workforce-last-year-recruitment-crash-a8067151.html

Though the estimated headcount of GPs in Scotland has remained fairly static, the whole-time-equivalent (WTE) has fallen by 4%, from 3 735 in 2013 to 3 575 in 2017. However, the estimated WTE of registered nurses and health care support workers has increased by 9% and 33% respectively. This reflects and increasing tendency for GPs, many of them women with family-care responsibilities, to work part-time and for some of their duties to be taken over by the other professionals including pharmacists.

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/General-Practice/Publications/2018-03-06/2018-03-06-PCWS2017-Summary.pdf

None of this can be interpreted as declining standards. Indeed, some surveys have shown greater patient satisfaction with treatment by nurses than by GPs.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/patients-prefer-nurses-to-doctors-says-bmj-study-279492.html

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1570503/

Also, GP numbers per head of population remain much higher in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK. See:

http://stv.tv/news/politics/1357142-scotland-has-best-gp-to-patient-ratio-in-uk-statistics-show/

Finally, readers will remember that evidence from 2015 suggests that Scottish GP practices were already the best staffed and that Scottish GPs seemed the least overworked or stressed in the UK:

Already the best staffed and least stressed in the UK, Scottish GPs to get better contracts

68.1% of Scotland’s gross electricity consumption was met by renewables in 2017. The Scottish Government target of 50% by 2015, has been met and the 2020 target is 100%. With new projects still to come online or to be constructed, the target looks a safe bet.

With only Iceland and Norway ahead of them, Scotland leads comparable countries such as Sweden with 53.8% and Finland with 38.7%. The UK and Ireland have less than 9% while the USA’s figure is 15.6%.

There are problems in comparisons in that some countries export and others export renewable energy, but these statistics suggest Scotland is in 3^rd place for providing its own electricity.

The above is based on Scottish government figures and on Eurostat figures reported in the Independent yesterday:

https://news.gov.scot/news/record-year-for-renewables-generation

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/renewable-energy-electricity-wind-wave-scotland-climate-change-oil-gas-a8283166.html

Further detail from the Scottish Government makes interesting reading:

• At the end of Q4 2017 a record, 10GW of installed renewables electricity capacity was operational in Scotland, a 13% increase over the year from Q4 2016
• In 2017, wind generation increased by 34% and hydro by 9%
• Renewable electricity generation in Q4 of 2017 in Scotland increased by 45% from the same time last year (Q4 2016)

The Independent summed it up this way:

‘It is believed the new statistics make Scotland one of the world’s top countries for providing its own electricity by sources avoiding fossil fuels, which accelerate climate change when burnt.’ 

Remember Caroline flint’s claim, in 2014, that England keeps the lights on in Scotland with subsidies for our renewables sector? She conveniently forgot about Scots subsidising nuclear plants in England. Anyhow, four years later, much has changed. See:

Subsidy costs for Scottish off-shore wind and tidal energy farms likely to fall below those needed for new nuclear plants making the latter an even more stupid choice

First subsidy-free onshore wind farm for Scotland?

Under the sickening headline:

‘1,000 patients die in hospital on discharge waiting lists’

We read:

‘Delayed discharge from hospital has cost Scotland’s NHS more than £360 million since the Scottish Government pledged to abolish it three years ago, analysis claims. The cost of patients lying in hospital beds even though they are ready to go home was revealed in research carried out by the Scottish Labour Party. Delayed discharge – or bed blocking – typically occurs when a social care package is not in place to enable a patient to move out of hospital.’

Further down we find:

‘According to ISD, between March 2015 and January 2018 there were 1,557,781 bed days occupied by delayed discharge. The latest figure by ISD for the estimated average daily cost of a delayed discharge was £223. When the two figures were combined to calculate the overall cost the total came to almost £363m. Scottish Labour blamed Scottish Government mismanagement of the health service for the failure to tackle bed blocking.’

So that’s 1 000 over 33 months or about 350 per year across Scotland’s 32 local authorities or an average of around 11 per authority. Does that look like a system in crisis?

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/1-000-patients-die-in-hospital-on-discharge-waiting-lists-1-4716100

 

In 2016/17 there were 532,423 bed days occupied by people delayed in their discharge.

In NHS Scotland. Roughly 1 in 12 or 8.2% of beds were occupied by mostly those over 70 years of age awaiting care in the community or at home arrangements, to be made.

This is a fall of 3% from the 2015/16 figure and the most recent figure for October 2017 was 10% lower than in October 2016.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Health-and-Social-Community-Care/Publications/2017-12-05/2017-12-05-DelayedDischarges-Annual-Report.pdf?83099001647

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Health-and-Social-Community-Care/Publications/2017-12-05/2017-12-05-DelayedDischarges-Summary.pdf?83099001647

Rather than report the above, the Scotsman used a Labour freedom of information request to report:

‘Figures show SNP pledge to end bed blocking in tatters. More than 1,000 Scots patients have died while waiting to be released from hospital since the SNP pledged to end bed blocking, new figures show.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/figures-show-snp-pledge-to-end-bed-blocking-in-tatters-1-4655171

Would the Scotsman prefer that these patients were turfed-out to die, perhaps even quicker, in their empty homes, in their children’s living rooms or jammed into overcrowded old folks’ homes?

Leaving aside the tabloid style, this is another example of the way the Scottish mainstream media operates largely as an uncritical (dirty) mouthpiece for the three main opposition parties.

A brilliant, devastating, account of this, leaving the reputation of them all in tatters can be found at Derek Bateman’s excellent blog. He begins:

‘The media has been positively bursting with bad news stories about the SNP government over the holiday period. Expose after expose has covered the front pages and filled the bulletins with a wearying persistence. You’d think the country was going to the dogs what with single-staffed ambulances, Scots missing out on tax credits and violence against shop workers on the rise – stories often based on Freedom of Information Requests and always contriving to make the SNP the culprit.

What has been striking is the repetitive nature of the day-by-day shock horror output, all written with similar phrases and all with the same simple narrative of SNP bad.

You’d almost think it was planned. Well, it was.

The Labour Party has been doing the media’s job for it by spending the summer preparing a long list of negative news stories to feed out daily to the journalists. In keeping with the cosy friendship they enjoy, it is called the ‘Scottish Labour Christmas Box – Stories for the many, not the few.’ Ha, ha. Merry Christmas, comrades.’

http://derekbateman.scot/2018/01/05/manipulating-the-media/

See also:

http://derekbateman.scot/2018/01/07/done-up-like-a-kipper/

Remember, these were not people who died because they had not been discharged but who would almost certainly have died soon after discharge and who, in many if not most cases, died cared for by professionals capable of ensuring that death was as dignified and painless as possible. That Scottish Labour and the Scotsman should try to make political capital out of these cases is beyond contempt.

From the Scottish Government site today:

‘Parents of premature and sick newborn babies will receive help meeting the additional costs they face as a result of their baby being in hospital with the introduction of a new £1.5 million fund. From 1 April, the Neonatal Expenses Fund will be available to all parents to support them to spend as much time with their babies as possible, while they are receiving care within a neonatal unit. The fund will help more than 8,000 families a year with travelling, parking and subsistence costs.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/neonatal-care-fund

This initiative comes after recognition, in the Herald (!):

On January 24^th, 2018, under the headline:

‘SNP Government doing ‘far better than Westminster’ on child health’

we read:

‘DOCTORS have praised the Scottish Government for doing “far better than Westminster” on child health policies such as breastfeeding and tackling childhood obesity, but warned that urgent action is still needed in areas such as GP training and reviewing child deaths.  A report by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health scored Scotland, England and Wales on their performance against a series of key recommendations a year on from a landmark report by the professional body.’

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15889305.SNP_Government_doing__far_better_than

True to form, the Herald did, of course, find a way to undermine the good news with a link to some out-of-date, apparently bad, news on the same topic. If you want, see:

Watch Herald report good news on child health for Scotland and then…..

Perhaps more important, the Neonatal Expenses Fund and the Neonatal Transport Service (see above) show a determination to build on the extremely good news reported here:

Scottish stillbirth and early infant death rates lowest in the UK and approaching lowest in the world

Of course, before I go, there is also this:

58 000 baby boxes to help increase life chances and now Scotland will be the first country in the world to provide free sanitary products to ‘end period poverty’. This is the kind of country I want to live in.

The last line above, times 3.

Alert: BBC Scotland appear to credit Labour party for the initiaive at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-43595992

 

From Insider today:

‘New rates changes coming into force in April will help stimulate the economy and improve transparency, the Scottish Government has said. From 1 April, there will be no business rates for unoccupied new properties and tenants who take them on will be rates-free for the first year. Where properties are improved, they will not pay any additional rates as a result of the improvement for 12 months.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/new-business-rates-scottish-government-12279237

These changes are unique to Scotland, can only help many new businesses, and follow a number of strategic initiatives, by the Scottish Government, designed to support the Scottish economy, already reported here:

Scottish Government funds help Scotland’s computer games industry’s massive growth

Scottish Government launches 50 new starter farms as Brexit threatens major food price rises

Scottish government to invest over £5 million in cutting-edge research

3 500 additional new-style apprenticeships confirmed for Scotland in 2018 as Scottish Government pushes on to increase youth employment further ahead of rUK

Scottish Government to spend £600 million on Superfast broadband for rural areas

These and other factors, of course, have resulted in a more robust economy than the BBC and its tame experts would have us know:

Business growth in Scotland well ahead of UK average

Scottish business confidence soars above UK level as sales increase

 

The average age of buses in Glasgow is 10 years (cf Lothian buses, municipally owned, at arms’ length, is 4 years). So, not many hydrogen powered buses there, or even mildly green ones. Glasgow is to become a Low Emission Zone at the end of this year and the city government has been criticised by environmental groups for a ‘lack of ambition’. One of the main sources of pollution is diesel powered vehicles, of which buses are a major contributor. (They are not the only contributor and other sources of pollution need to be brought into line soon). It has been known for some time that restrictions on diesel and emissions and a range of other things would be being phased in fairly soon to meet climate change targets. I suspect that the bus companies in Glasgow – all privately owned, receiving a substantial public subsidy, increasing fares pretty steeply and leaving big areas of the city poorly served by public transport – are dragging their heels over investing their own PRIVATE money into the kinds of buses that Aberdeen and Dundee are buying, in the hope of creating a public outcry to force more PUBLIC money to be pushed their way to fund improvements.

The companies also need to deploy a range of buses of different sizes so that they can have frequent shuttle services around residential areas, which connect with mainstream cross city buses or rail stations, with transfers being effected quickly by smart ticketing.

So we need re-regulation of public transport.

It is not just from a pollution reduction perspective that we need investment in the bus fleet. We need greater comfort for passengers. We need the introduction of cross mode ticketing to speed up journeys. These kinds of things are needed if people are to be tempted out of private cars on to public transport. By shifting people out of private cars, we will further reduce polluting emissions.

Broadbield:

I would just add that privatisation is really a tax on customers, often resulting in worse service at higher cost as profits land in the pockets of the executives/shareholders. We need to re-nationalise or otherwise bring transport under public ownership/control and create a truly integrated service that reaches all parts, is cheap, convenient, regular and comfortable.

The latest research breakthrough suggests the hydrogen economy may be nearer than we think: https://www.gasworld.com/solar-hydrogen-breakthrough-at-scottish-university-/2014419.article