Talking-up Scotland

(Reuters/Dylan Martinez) / Reuters

Today, we read on the BBC website:

‘Scots ‘more optimistic about future’, according to BBC survey’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-44301827

and spotted the graph above showing the sunny disposition of Yessers.

The full report is not yet on the YouGov website, but I am able to reveal, based on my contacts in the research industry, the shocking news that the researchers found a very strong negative correlation between watching BBC Scotland News and pessimism about the future – those who regularly watched BBC Scotland News were statistically much more likely to be pessimistic about the future. Amongst researchers into Scottish culture and politics, this is known as the IM/IMNO Jolly spectrum.

(c) Sunday Post

I’m also informed that the data on this will not be released and that the lead researcher has been reported for bringing both the BBC and YouGov into disrepute. The BBc has previous on this. See:

http://www.medialens.org/index.php/alerts/alert-archive/2014/759-scotlandshire-bbc-scotland-coverage-of-the-independence-referendum.html

This is not the first time I have been able to use my extensive contacts amongst researchers, some of whom I corrupted, sorry, inspired, in my former days. See these:

Shock News: Reporting Scotland is now watched regularly by less than 5% (1 in 20) of Scots and Good Morning Scotland is listened to regularly by less than 2% (1 in 50).

BBC Scotland radio audiences plummet

Just how small is BBC Radio Scotland Good Mourning Scotland’s audience? Is Wings over Scotland now bigger?

BBC Radio Scotland is in terminal decline with 35% fewer listeners in only 7 years

 

In the Flagging Scotsman today:

‘Scots NHS ‘staffing crisis’ as thousands of nurses quit. The number of nurses leaving the NHS in Scotland has reached a new high prompting fears of a “staffing crisis” in hospitals. More than 4,300 nurses quit the service last year, it has emerged, while long-term consultant vacancies are also on the rise. The news was among a raft of gloomy NHS statistics which also showed more than 580 operations were cancelled in April because hospitals could not cope, longer waits in hard-pressed hospital emergency departments and fresh concerns over mental health treatment delays.’

Needless to say, ‘opposition’ politicians are given plenty space to confirm the presence of a crisis and to lay the blame for it at the door of the Scottish Government. If you’re feeling strong and stable in your gut, they can be read here:

https://www.scotsman.com/news/scots-nhs-staffing-crisis-as-thousands-of-nurses-quit-1-4749723

Number of nurses in Scotland is growing steadily

On the number of nurses, here are some facts. In Nursing, excluding Midwifery, there were 56 468.2 FTE in NHS Scotland, in September 2017. So, the 4 300 leaving account for around 7% of the total and this includes those retiring. The Scotsman report does not tell us how many new entrants there have been in the same year nor does it give us the wider historical picture showing a steady and gradual increase in the number of nurses in NHS Scotland. See this:

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Workforce/Publications/data-tables2017.asp

Number of nurses in Scotland is nearly twice that per head of population, of England

In NHS England, the Kings Fund state:

‘The number of nursing staff (nurses and health visitors) has increased by 1.8 per cent from 281,064 FTEs in 2010 to 286 020 FTEs in 2017.’

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/nhs-in-a-nutshell/nhs-staffing-numbers

The UK Government site says:

‘There were 314,966 Nurses & health visitors, an increase of 2,790 (0.9%) since 2014. There were 281,474 FTE Nurses & health visitors, an increase of 2,494 (0.9%) since 2014.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/511519/nhs-staf-2015-over-rep.pdf

So, Scotland with only 10% of England’s population, has 19% of the number of nurses or nearly twice as many per head of population.

Consultant staffing in Scotland is 43% up under SNP

On consultants

As of September 2017, there were 5 189.8 consultants working in NHS Scotland. Thought there were still 430.5 vacancies still to be filled, the shortage fell in the previous quarter by 9.6% and the annual overall number of consultants rose by 3.5%. Vacancy rates for consultants are also down from 8.3% in 2016 to 7.5% in 2017. More strikingly, consultant numbers have risen by 43.1% under the current government! To put that in context, overall NHS Scotland staffing has risen by 25.4% in the ten years of SNP administration.

Also, in 2017, the number of specialists in intensive care increased by 27.5% and the number of specialists in acute internal medicine increased by 49.2%!

https://isdscotland.scot.nhs.uk/Health%2DTopics/Workforce/Publications/data-tables2017.asp

NHS England cancelling operations at 3 times the rate of NHS Scotland

This piece is getting too long, so see this for more detail:

‘NHS England cancelling operations at three times the rate in Scotland!’ or ‘With 10% of the population to care for, NHS Scotland cancels only 3.3% of NHS England operations cancelled in January’

Update from reader Legerwood:

‘The number of operations carried out in April 2018 were 10% higher than in April 2017 so hardly surprising that the number cancelled for reasons other than clinical ones or the patient cancelling the op have increased compared to April 2017 – 587 vs 490 respectively. However, when the numbers are converted to percentages, which is the only way to make a valid comparison, then in April 2018 2.2% of operations were cancelled for other reasons compared to 2% in April 2017. Quite a different picture. Furthermore the percentage of ops cancelled by the patient or for clinical reasons were lower in April 2018 compared to April 2017.’

I haven’t tackled the mental health issue because I can’t find reliable figures.

Finally, the Scotsman has previous on this. See:

Scotsman under fire over dishonest reporting of four-doctor protest, against NHS England, but at Holyrood (?), in latest round weaponizing NHS in proxy war against SNP

as does the Herald:

Pressure on Herald editor to resign over misrepresentation of NHS successes as Health Secretary is nominated for award as most successful in UK

 

(c) BBC

On 5^th June, 2018, at about 6.45pm, Jackie Bird moans:

‘Around eleven million pounds is being wasted in Scotland because plastic is sent to landfill rather than being recycled.’

Then Kevin Keane warns us that it is ‘littering our streets’ and causing ‘damage to wildlife’ before offering me this lovely headline, ‘Every day of every year, we produce rubbish.’

He goes on to remind us that ‘it costs councils huge amounts of money’ and that that is even ‘perverse’ before slipping in a grudging wee optimistic note with ‘We do seem to be doing more with recycling rates of 61%.’

As is often the case with BBC Scotland, the 61% figure is not put into any kind of context so that we might judge our progress. Luckily, the BBC UK website in March 2018 noted:

‘Recycling rates of councils serving 14 million households in England have fallen over five years, analysis by BBC News has found. Half of local authorities recycled a lower proportion of household waste in 2016-17 than in 2011-12. Experts warn the UK is likely to miss its target of recycling 50% of household rubbish by 2020.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-43197454

Every day of every year, those non-Scottish households and local authorities are rubbish. So, it looks as if maybe we might be getting on quite well, producing less rubbish than others. From SEPA figures in Scottish Field on 29^th May, we got a more encouraging report than the rubbish on Revolting Scotland:

‘More and more Scots are doing their bit for the environment. Scottish recycling, composting and re-use of waste from all sources has rocketed past the 60% milestone for the first time. In 2016, 6.96 million tonnes (61%) of waste was recycled, composted or prepared for re-use, over half a million tonnes more than in 2015. Total waste generated in Scotland fell by over half a million tonnes (0.53m tonnes) since 2015, with Scotland achieving the lowest quantity of waste being landfilled since 2011 – a 10.3% decrease from 2015.’

https://www.scottishfield.co.uk/outdoors/wildlifeandconservation/scottish-recycling-levels-hit-a-new-high/

Does watching Reeking Scotland just makes you feel a bit rubbish?

(c) Sun

On 4^th June 2018, Reporting Scotland gave quite an extended, headlined, report, with 24 long, compound, sentences on organised crime. Despite, the length, they failed to mention the researchers’ own repeated warning against generalising the findings beyond their small sample to the national situation in Scotland. Reporting Scotland began with:

‘A new focus is needed in the fight against organised crime in Scotland. An 18-month research study says crime gangs rely on vulnerable people to develop their businesses.’

Later, they say:

‘It’s insidious affecting ordinary communities across Scotland.’

Statements like these and the failure to qualify them at any point, suggest a crime problem of some scale and intensity across the country yet the researchers are careful not to say that. As early as page 3 in the report, ‘Community Experiences of Serious Organised Crime in Scotland’, we see this:

‘188 individuals participated in the study, which mostly involved semi-structured qualitative interviews, but also a small number of focus groups, unstructured interviews and observational research.’

So, this is a small-scale piece of qualitative research. Such research can be very useful in explaining the complexity of social situations and, in particular, helping professionals, such the police, to develop effective strategies. However, such research, cannot be used to tell us how common something is or how widespread it is. For that, you’d need a much bigger sample, randomly selected and spread across the country. The researchers are not to blame for Reporting Scotland’s misuse of their findings. On page 3 and again on page 25, in the methods section, they say:

‘While the case study areas had traits that were similar to other communities in

Scotland, however, it should be noted that these findings should not be read as a generalised picture of SOC-community relations in Scotland.’

Further, they say:

‘It is notable, however, that connections between street crime and organised crime were often based on informed perception rather than direct experience.’

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00536071.pdf

So, the researchers remind us that their findings cannot be generalised and that they are often based on what the people they interviewed had heard was happening to others as opposed to things they had experienced themselves.

Now, Reporting Scotland did not directly say that these crimes were affecting large numbers of people, but they left their audience thinking that they were because, well, the BBC was reporting it, so it must be ‘big’, and because the BBC said nothing to suggest it wasn’t happening to large numbers of people.

Given their prominence in the report, it’s difficult to explain the failure to mention the declared limitations on interpreting these results, as other than deliberate and then we’re left to wonder why.

This is only the latest in a sequence of reports on crime in, or indeed, not in Scotland, by BBC Scotland. This tendency or agenda is likely to be undermining public confidence and, by association, weakening the reputation of the Scottish Government. I’ve already complained about these and will do it again on this latest example.

Here are links to the earlier cases:

BBC News tries to spread knife crime crisis into Scotland to tell us: ‘You’re no different. Don’t get any ideas!’

BBC Scotland lie and distort to try again to spread violent crime crisis into Scotland despite it having only 3.5% of the gangs for 8% of the population, falling levels of violent crime and because of falling levels of fear of crime?

Are Scots less concerned about crime not just because there is less but also because they are learning not to trust media distortion?

As hate crime falls in Scotland and soars elsewhere, STV and BBC Scotland report fake news of an increase

(c) Edinburgh University, Salisbury Studio Theatre, Daily Telegraph

From Police Scotland on 28^th May 2018:

‘The Q4 figures show that the number of deaths on the roads has fallen by 15.1% (from 172 to 146) after education and enforcement work, including safety campaigns highlighting poor driver behaviour. The number of children killed on roads is down 82% from 11 to 2. Since 1995, there has been a 50% fall in road deaths, while traffic levels have increased by 23% over the same period.’

http://www.scotland.police.uk/whats-happening/news/2018/may/police-scotland-publishes-q4-management-information

The full report reveals that nearly all offences relating to motor vehicles have fallen in the last year and, in some cases, by dramatic levels. For example, mobile phone offences have gone down by more than 50% from 6 695 to 3 173 and speeding down by nearly 20% from 34 842 to 29 223.

http://www.scotland.police.uk/assets/pdf/138327/232757/445136/management-info-report-q4?version=1

In sharp contrast, across the UK:

‘The number of people killed on Britain’s roads reached a five-year high last year, new figures show. Some 1,792 deaths were recorded in road traffic accidents in 2016, up 4 per cent on the previous year and the most since 2011. Pedestrian deaths saw the largest year-on-year rise at 10 per cent, followed by car occupants (8 per cent).’

https://metro.co.uk/2017/09/28/number-of-road-deaths-in-britain-hits-five-year-high-6962248/

Could this have anything to do with the Scottish Government’s push for average speed cameras? Back in 2013, the Telegraph reported:

‘Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, has delivered a withering attack on the SNP’s decision to install average speed cameras on Scotland’s most dangerous road. Mr Alexander described the plan to fit the controversial cameras along a 136-mile stretch of the A9 between Dunblane and Inverness as “a knee-jerk decision”.’

In January 2017, Jeremy Clarkson, raged against the denial of his freedom to speed, after the installation of the average speed camera system, on Scotland’s most dangerous road, the A9. It was that kind of Toad of Toad Hall, Libertarian / Right-wing thinking Clarkson specialises in. Later, in November that same year, the Scottish Conservative, MSP Liam Kerr, presumably their Boy Racer Spokesman, featured in the Evening Express, questioning their value on the A90, Aberdeen to Dundee:

‘New A90 average speed cameras would not have prevented half of road accidents. New figures left transport chiefs facing fresh questions over their decision to fix the unpopular devices along the A90 Aberdeen to Dundee road. Scottish Conservatives said police data released to the party showed 124 of 272 accidents over the last four years “would not likely have been helped by the money-spinning measure”. North-east MSP Liam Kerr claimed “far more” collisions are happening at junctions, private entrances, and roundabouts than thought, and the vehicles involved were likely to have been “slow-moving and certainly not fast enough to be detected by cameras”.’

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/new-a90-average-speed-cameras-would-not-have-prevented-half-of-road-accidents/

However, On 8^th February 2018, strong evidence that the average speed cameras are playing a big part in reducing fatalities on the roads, emerged:

‘A9 deaths halved since average speed cameras installed The number of deaths on the A9 between Dunblane and Inverness has fallen by almost half since average speed cameras were installed. Since the devices were put on place on the route in October 2014, which is the country’s longest trunk road, road safety data shows annual road deaths have declined by 49%. The overall number of all types of casualties has fallen by more than a quarter (28%) while the amount of drivers caught speeding has shrunk by two-thirds (66%).’

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1407954-deaths-on-a9-halved-since-average-speed-cameras-installed/

Six times, early this morning on BBC Breakfast’s wee Scottish insert, Scotland’s pensioners, including me, heard:

‘Crime gangs rely on vulnerable people to develop their businesses.’

On the BBC Scotland website we read:

‘[O]rganised crime is now about preying on the vulnerable, “helping” when there are welfare and benefits shortfalls.’

And in the Herald, David Leask seemed able to be more specific with a view, presumably, to alerting his typical reader:

‘GANGSTERS are preying on the financial fears of pensioners to take over their homes for drug dealing and racketeering, a major new report has discovered.’

I’m not, in any way, trying to diminish the suffering touched on here but these reports fail to tell us what we need, as citizens, to be able to evaluate the situation. Is this a large-scale problem? How many pensioners have been affected? How serious are the offenses? Is this a growing problem?

I can’t access the full research, Community Experiences of Serious Organised Crime in Scotland, but the lack of figures in the media reports and the telling inclusion of the phrase ‘Anecdotal evidence given to researchers described real situations in communities’ in the BBC website version, suggest that the report is the kind of thing that will be very useful in understanding and tackling such crime but isn’t really intended to be a measure of the scale of the problem. The lack of such essential data reminds us of the previous attempts by our loyal media to scare the ‘vulnerable’ and some pensioners, into believing that the knife and gun crime surge, evident in the non-Scottish parts of the UK, is spreading to Scotland, despite the lack of any supporting evidence. See:

BBC News tries to spread knife crime crisis into Scotland to tell us: ‘You’re no different. Don’t get any ideas!’

As knife and gun crime rockets across England and Wales and falls in Scotland, Scotland has far more police officers per head of population

These scare tactics appear not to have worked so far. See:

Are Scots less concerned about crime not just because there is less but also because they are learning not to trust media distortion?

Returning to organised crime gangs in Scotland, there is some comparative evidence which we can use. First, on 14^th May 2018, BBC Scotland’s website reported that there were 164 organised crime groups in Scotland.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-44101927

Then in the early morning broadcasts, BBC Salford reported that there are more than 4 500 gangs involved. The figures from the National Crime Agency (NCA) are presumably UK-wide figures.

So, if there are only 160 gangs in Scotland yet 4 500 in the UK as a whole, then Scotland has, per capita, far fewer gangs than the rest of the UK. Indeed, Scotland has 8% of the population yet only 3.5% of the gangs.

Is it possible that fewer GANGSTERS are preying on the financial fears of fewer pensioners in Scotland than in the non-Scottish parts of the UK?

(the old Transport Medal)

Retired professor, at the UWS Centre for Research Excellence, Dr John Robertson (no relation), has called on Westminster to award Scottish Transport Secretary, Humza Yousaf, an updated version of the Transport Medal, for the first time in over a century, in  recognition of his role in ensuring Scotland has the best rail service in the UK.

Here are the main points:

• Just 0.01%, the lowest on record, of services missed scheduled stops in the four weeks to 26 May
• More than nine out of ten ScotRail services met their punctuality target.
• ScotRail remains Britain’s best performing large operator.

Scotrail reported:

‘For the four weeks to 26 May, just 53 out of almost 58,000 scheduled services missed stops. This is a reduction of 88 per cent on the same period last year. Across the network, 91.5 per cent of ScotRail trains met the rail industry standard public performance measure. These services arrived within five minutes of their scheduled time, having stopped at all timetabled stations on the route. This means that ScotRail remains the best performing large rail operator in Britain.’

https://www.scotrail.co.uk/about-scotrail/news/scotrail-records-lowest-rate-skip-stopping-records-began

Things have dramatically improved since Yousaf intervened as, in January 2018, the Flagging Scotsman (not flying these days) was delighted to report:

‘Up to 20 ScotRail trains a day skip their scheduled stops’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/up-to-20-scotrail-trains-a-day-skip-their-scheduled-stops-1-4674632

Also, it’s worth noting that other Rail operators have not been stingy in trying to compete with Scotrail. See this today in the Daily Torygraph:

‘Rail firms on the line with £1bn losses feared’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/03/rail-firms-line-1bn-losses-feared/

Makes you wonder if they spent all that on improving services or improving executive bonuses.

Footnote: Scotrail did, themselves, report 0.1% skipping stops. That would have been more than 500 cases as opposed to the actual 53 or less than 0.01%. When an organisation does creative accounting to actually damage its own reputation, I find it kind of cute.

Footnote 2: Readers should, of course, be aware that Robertson was accused of bringing both the BBC and UWS into disrepute, in 2014. No actual charges were brought, and Robertson was allegedly paid off with a handsome retirement package. Replying to this allegation, Robertson has insisted that any package of his would be handsome, by definition.

 

Not that big a hole

In the Scotsman today:

‘Scotland faces £1.7 billion black hole in public finances. Scotland is facing a £1.7 billion black hole in its public finances as another five years of economic misery looms, according to the country’s fiscal watchdog.’

When we read on, we see the £1.7 billion is spread over 5 years and the shortfall for 2018/2019 is only for £209 million.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland-faces-1-7-billion-black-hole-in-public-finances-1-4747979

 

But the UK hole is a real big one

As is common, we don’t get any context such as details of any comparable UK-wide shortfall from the Scotsman. However, the Guardian has it for us:

‘UK faces new £20bn budget black hole –as it happened’

The above hole is then predicted to rise to £36 billion by 2020.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/oct/30/uk-budget-deficit-consumer-spending-spain-economy-gdp-business-live

With a 12^th of the population, you’d expect our shortfall to be £3 billion rather than just £1.7 billion so the headline might be:

‘UK budget deficit twice as bad as the Scottish figure.’

 

What about the oil and gas?

In 28-page, 2 000-word, document, the words oil and gas appear only 3 times, in these two comments:

‘Future downside risks include the UK’s changing relationship with the EU, a weakening outlook for global trade, Scotland’s industrial and demographic structure and weak onshore demand linked to activity in the oil and gas industry (Page 5)

One-off factors such as adjustments in the oil and gas supply chain to lower oil prices and declines in the construction industry leading to weaker than expected wage growth in 2017 and 2018’ (Page 14)

http://www.fiscalcommission.scot/media/1298/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts-may-2018-summary.pdf

‘Weak onshore demand’? ‘Lower prices’? Did they write this in 2016?

 

The Scottish Fiscal Commission’s research is not so slick (!)

Somehow missed by SFC, oil jobs and taxation, oil exploration and high prices return:

Oil jobs and their taxes are back

 ‘Aberdeen’s workforce has officially “bounced back” to near-record levels after plummeting during the oil and gas crash….the 123,900 workers in the city last year was the second highest on record, just a few hundred below its peak in 2015.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/172218/aberdeen-stages-a-big-bounce-back-as-employment-rates-soar-again/

Exploration is back at pre-slump levels

‘OGA [Oil and Gas Authority] hopes the round will unlock 320 million barrels of oil in undeveloped oil and gas discoveries which were previously “stranded”. Around 3.6 billion barrels worth of exploration prospectivity will be progressed.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/172246/breaking-30th-north-sea-licensing-round-awards-revealed/

$100 per barrel is possible in 2019

‘The bank’s analysts [Bank of America] wrote Thursday that collapsing oil production in Venezuela and potential export disruptions in Iran could push the price of Brent crude as high as $100 per barrel in 2019.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/10/investing/100-oil-iran-trump-bank-of-america/index.html

 

Getting the GDP predictions wrong

In the Scotsman today:

‘The economy is likely to lag behind the rest of the UK, with growth not expected to top 1 per cent until 2023’

yet in Energy Voice on 3^rd May:

‘Scottish GDP grew last year in line with a slight (sic) upturn in North Sea revenues. The latest quarterly national accounts show that when a geographical share of offshore oil and gas is included, GDP grew by 1% in the last three months of 2017 and 3.4% over the year as a whole. Over the year, Scotland’s geographical share of North Sea oil revenues returned to a surplus, with tax revenues rising to just over £1 billion, up from minus £130 million the previous year. Onshore GDP is estimated at £152.1 billion, or £28,046 per person, in current prices.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/170499/north-sea-oil-revenues-sees-economic-boost-for-scotland/

Given the evidence of a major upturn in oil and gas revenues in Q4, continuing and growing in 2018 and beyond, the SFC’s GDP prediction makes no sense. Interestingly, the Office for National Statistics are not able to release Scottish GDP figures for Q1 2018. I’ve asked for them, but they won’t be available, I gather, until end 2018.

 

Underestimating the oil and gas revenue

Here’s the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast reported in Energy Voice:

‘A new report predicts UK oil and gas revenues will be £400million higher every year from now until 2023 – in the latest sign that the North Sea is on the mend. In its fiscal and economic outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said its revenue forecast had been revised upwards due to higher oil prices, increased production and lower costs. The Oil and Gas Authority recently lifted its long-term forecast for North Sea production by 2.8billion barrels of oil equivalent to 11.7billion barrels.’

They then predict tax revenues of £1 billion for each of the next five years.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/166095/obr-pushes-north-sea-revenue-projections/

Here’s what the revenue could/should be:

11.7 billion barrels at even $70 per barrel, equals total revenue of $819 billion. Production costs estimated by the BP chief, last year, to be no more than $15 per barrel equal $175 billion. So that’s $644 billion or £474 billion, in profit, before wages and shared dividends yet the OBR thinks we only get £5 billion in tax revenue for the first five years. So that would be £34 billion by 2050. Isn’t that a bit low? UK corporation tax at 20% would give nearly £100 billion. What’s going on here?

Taking the above figures, could Scottish GDP actually have grown by several times the UK figure in Q1?

________________________________________________________________________

SFC, Scottish F……. Cringe?

We heard, six times between 6 and 9am:

‘Scottish Fire and Rescue has a backlog of almost £400 million in vehicle and property maintenance.’

 According to the BBC report, Audit Scotland have described the funding gap as ‘insurmountable’.

The above information was extracted from the 5^th statement in the summary on page 5 of the report. Missing from the BBC broadcast was any reference to statements 1 to 4 or the opening to statement 5, which include these key points:

1. The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service (SFRS) continues to deliver emergency and prevention services while progressing a complex and ambitious programme of reform.
2. The board continues to work well, with real strengths in the quality of discussion and scrutiny and challenge of management. The board and management display mutual respect, a constructive tone and genuine shared ownership of the issues facing the SFRS.
3. The SFRS has an ambitious vision that involves significant changes to make it a more flexible, modern service. Progress with developing and implementing the plans for transformation has been steady but slow, due to a range of contributing factors.
4. The SFRS has continued to make progress with integrating different ways of working but has not yet achieved full integration. Harmonised pay and conditions for firefighters were agreed in April 2018, placing the SFRS in a good position to complete integration of the service.
5. The SFRS has strong financial management and has developed a good approach to long-term financial planning. It is now in a position to progress with transformation.

This is a classic scare story, based on bias by omission, which was likely to be all the more scary given the time of broadcast and the repetition of one negative aspect, from a more complex and balanced document.

 

(c) Pinterest

This morning, we heard from BBC Scotland news, six times between 6 and 9am:

‘Scottish Fire and Rescue has a backlog of almost £400 million in vehicle and property maintenance.’

 According to the BBC report, Audit Scotland have described the funding gap as ‘insurmountable’.

The above information was extracted from the 5^th statement in the summary on page 5 of the report. Missing from the BBC broadcast was any reference to statements 1 to 4 or the opening to statement 5, which include these key points:

1. The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service (SFRS) continues to deliver emergency and prevention services while progressing a complex and ambitious programme of reform.
2. The board continues to work well, with real strengths in the quality of discussion and scrutiny and challenge of management. The board and management display mutual respect, a constructive tone and genuine shared ownership of the issues facing the SFRS.
3. The SFRS has an ambitious vision that involves significant changes to make it a more flexible, modern service. Progress with developing and implementing the plans for transformation has been steady but slow, due to a range of contributing factors.
4. The SFRS has continued to make progress with integrating different ways of working but has not yet achieved full integration. Harmonised pay and conditions for firefighters were agreed in April 2018, placing the SFRS in a good position to complete integration of the service.
5. The SFRS has strong financial management and has developed a good approach to long-term financial planning. It is now in a position to progress with transformation.

http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/uploads/docs/report/2018/nr_180531_fire_rescue.pdf

This is a classic scare story which was likely to be all the more scary given the time of broadcast and the repetition of one negative aspect from a more complex and balanced document. For a reminder of the evidence for a theory of the Power of Early Morning Nightmares see this:

Early morning news can more effectively propagandise than the same news offered at later times when we are more ready to deal with life’s challenges:

Dr R Fletcher, ‘Surgeon to the Lunatic Asylum near Gloucester’ 1833 (p.206) wrote this in 1883. I know it’s not a recent and reliable source, as we used to say in Higher Education, but I think it shows that we’ve known about this effect for some time. It was no accident, he wrote, that medieval monks and more recently, private school boarders, got started with their religious indoctrination before dawn so as to catch them anxious, fearful and absorbent of the required sense of superiority and deep racial prejudices necessary for the conquest of lesser peoples.

Making these early hours particularly effective for indoctrination, they often follow on from nightmares:

‘Nightmares tend to occur during the early morning, as opposed to late evening with night terrors, and patients usually have good recall of the events of the dream.’ (Science-based Medicine, 2014)

Moving forward to Scotland in the years after Referendum 2014, as we watch the early news from ‘where you [people] are now’, on BBC Breakfast, does the above matter? Well….

‘I would like to re-emphasise the importance of “bad news” in the genesis of psychopathology, as this does not seem to be generally recognised. Bad news, of deaths and other disasters, is not available to our primate cousins, who are not equipped to exchange gossip, but has been available to our ancestors over the last few million years since language evolved. Since these ancestors lived in groups of about 150 individuals, the amount of bad news they could generate was limited, even if we add in bad news from neighbouring groups. Now, we have available the bad news of many billions of people. Since news of death or other disaster may presage the nearby existence of a predator or of raiding parties from neighbouring tribes, or of disease, it must have been adaptive for bad news to increase anxiety and promote activities to ward off occurrence, such as increased washing, checking of security arrangements, and the advantageous territorial constriction of agoraphobia.’

See that last phrase there? Is that a way of saying ‘Better Together?’ Is Unionism a kind of agoraphobia, a fear of autonomy and wide-open EU spaces?