Talking-up Scotland

The 2019 Sales Team at Carlaw Used Motors

You’ve probably read about this elsewhere, but I have an overpowering urge to gloat as ‘Her Majesty’s Opposition’ in Scotland are predicted to disappear in all but one or two dark little corners of Scotland.

The poll, for Global Britain, of 22 000 voters, looking at the 44 most marginal Conservative seats, found swings of up to 19 or 20%. Ayr, Gordon and Stirling would definitely fall and if replicated this would wipe away almost all of the Tory gains at the last election.

The chaos that is Brexit and the awful mediocrity of the politicians available to Labour, Conservatives and Lib-Dems, in Scotland, suggest worse is to come for all of them.

In the repeated TV broadcasts this morning and on the website, we hear/see something along these lines:

‘The public are being urged to back a campaign for tougher legislation to ensure there are enough nurses to deliver high-quality patient care. The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) Scotland said the latest NHS workforce data showed the highest number of nursing vacancies ever reported. It said its members were at “breaking point” and it was “time for change”. The nursing body (sic)* has previously called for legislation in each part of the UK to address staffing for safe and effective care.’

The RCN is a trades union with a fancy, particularly loyalist name. It is extremely partisan, as it should be, in pursuing the interest of its members, not a ‘body’ charged with the responsibility to use scientifically gathered evidence to support any claims of need for change or of a crisis in resourcing. The Nuffield Trust is a body. So is NHS Scotland or, for teachers, the GTC. The Scottish Government’s departments are ‘bodies’ of that kind. So, when the Scottish Government mention an actual increase in the overall number of nurses, regardless of vacancies at this low level, a responsible news agency should give that some prominence.

Allowing a brief interjection from that real ‘body’, the Scottish Government BBC Scotland allow only:

‘The Scottish government said the number of nurses and midwives had increased by 5.7% since 2007.’

‘Said’; are the Scottish government figures not open to scrutiny and thus trustworthy? BBC Scotland News, quickly returned to selective comment to back up the RCN case:

‘The NHS workforce figures were published by ISD on Tuesday and showed the nursing and midwifery vacancy rate was now at 5.3% – that is 3,311.2 whole time equivalent (WTE) unfilled posts.’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-45416421

Context to help audiences understand:

Missing from BBC Scotland reporting, as usual, is any kind of context which might help the audience put the figures in context.

First, just how dramatic, even unusual, is a vacancy rate of 5.3% or 1 in 20 staff? Having been required to manage much worse vacancy rates in Higher Education, I struggle to see the problem with 1 in 20. I don’t have national figures, but I suspect around 5% is quite a healthy level, enabling steady staff turnover and the arrival of ‘new blood.’

Second, are Nurse numbers generally rising or falling? The Scottish Government suggest a 5.7% increase since the last days of Labour. In 2018:

‘There were 59,455.9 WTE nursing and midwifery staff in post, representing an annual increase of 0.1% (77.9 WTE). The proportion of qualified nurses and midwives remains similar to last year at 73.0% (43,364.5 WTE).’

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Workforce/Publications/2018-09-04/2018-09-04-Workforce-Summary.pdf?2584475279

Third, how does the NHS Scotland staffing ratio compare with other NHS areas?

How many nurses are there in Scotland? Well, as you see above, there were 59 455 nurses and midwives in Scotland. Now if NHS Scotland is very tightly stretched in terms of nurse staffing, as the RCN suggest, even a small number of vacancies would matter. Let’s have a look at UK staffing levels (can’t seem to find reliable England-only figures) as a comparison to see how they compare.

The UK has a population of 66 643 010 and 690 773 nurses and midwives and so the ratio is one nurse to 96.4 people.

https://fullfact.org/health/whats-happening-nursing-numbers/

Scotland has a population of 5 254 800 and 59 455 nurses and midwives and so the ratio is one nurse to 88.4 people.

While not denying the possibility of over-stretch, in some areas, this suggests that if it is, in NHS Scotland, then NHS England is in an even worse situation.

• Using the Latin ‘sic’ to indicate that an error of spelling, grammar, or logic has been quoted, in a medical context, appeals to my sense of humour (sick?).

(c) http://eugenieyoung.com

In just one three-month period, the number of people starting treatment for psychological therapies increased by more than 10% from 15 677 at the end of March 2018, to 17 273 by the end of June 2018.

Testament to the efforts of the staff, the 10% increase in demand caused waiting time performance to deteriorate by only 2% with 76.3% seen within 18 weeks in the quarter ending June 2018 as opposed to 78.4% seen in the quarter ending March 2018.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Waiting-Times/Publications/2018-09-04/2018-09-04-WT-PsychTherapies-Summary.pdf?96143740416

 

From ISD yesterday

‘4,664 children and young people started treatment at Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) in Scotland which is an increase from the previous quarter (3,995) and from quarter ending June 2017 (4,092). The WTE [whole time equivalent] of staff in post within CAMHS was 1011.9 WTE, an increase of 54.8% since 2006, when data collection on the CAMHS workforce began. Only 60 posts (52.7 WTE) within CAMHS were vacant.’

The increase in demand, in just one year, was nearly 14%.

The level of vacancies was only 5.9%.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Mental-Health/Publications/2018-09-04/2018-09-04-CAMHS-Summary.pdf?94254702330

 

From ISD yesterday:

‘The number of staff, employed by NHS Scotland, is 162,254. The WTE [whole time equivalent], which adjusts for part time working, has risen by 0.1% over the last year to 139,095.2. Whilst there have been six consecutive years of annual growth, the rate of growth has slowed.’

The increase over the last 10 years was 2.4%

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Workforce/Publications/2018-09-04/2018-09-04-Workforce-Summary.pdf?42264956236

 

The first ‘urban’ speed cameras on Old Dalkeith Road in Edinburgh have been found to be very effective according to a retrospective analysis by Police Scotland. Before the cameras were installed a year ago, 60% of vehicles were speeding but now only two offences per day, on average, are recorded. In the period 2013-2015, there had been six serious crashes with three resulting in serious injury or death. In last year, with the cameras, there were no crashes resulting in injury.

This evidence that speed cameras are effective, adds to previous evidence reported here earlier in the year:

From Police Scotland on 28^th May 2018:

‘The Q4 figures show that the number of deaths on the roads has fallen by 15.1% (from 172 to 146) after education and enforcement work, including safety campaigns highlighting poor driver behaviour. The number of children killed on roads is down 82% from 11 to 2. Since 1995, there has been a 50% fall in road deaths, while traffic levels have increased by 23% over the same period.’

http://www.scotland.police.uk/whats-happening/news/2018/may/police-scotland-publishes-q4-management-information

The full report reveals that nearly all offences relating to motor vehicles have fallen in the last year and, in some cases, by dramatic levels. For example, mobile phone offences have gone down by more than 50% from 6 695 to 3 173 and speeding down by nearly 20% from 34 842 to 29 223.

http://www.scotland.police.uk/assets/pdf/138327/232757/445136/management-info-report-q4?version=1

In sharp contrast, across the UK:

‘The number of people killed on Britain’s roads reached a five-year high last year, new figures show. Some 1,792 deaths were recorded in road traffic accidents in 2016, up 4 per cent on the previous year and the most since 2011. Pedestrian deaths saw the largest year-on-year rise at 10 per cent, followed by car occupants (8 per cent).’

https://metro.co.uk/2017/09/28/number-of-road-deaths-in-britain-hits-five-year-high-6962248/

Could this have anything to do with the Scottish Government’s push for average speed cameras? Back in 2013, the Telegraph reported:

‘Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, has delivered a withering attack on the SNP’s decision to install average speed cameras on Scotland’s most dangerous road. Mr Alexander described the plan to fit the controversial cameras along a 136-mile stretch of the A9 between Dunblane and Inverness as “a knee-jerk decision”.’

In January 2017, Jeremy Clarkson, raged against the denial of his freedom to speed, after the installation of the average speed camera system, on Scotland’s most dangerous road, the A9. It was that kind of Toad of Toad Hall, Libertarian / Right-wing thinking Clarkson specialises in. Later, in November that same year, the Scottish Conservative, MSP Liam Kerr, presumably their Boy Racer Spokesman, featured in the Evening Express, questioning their value on the A90, Aberdeen to Dundee:

‘New A90 average speed cameras would not have prevented half of road accidents. New figures left transport chiefs facing fresh questions over their decision to fix the unpopular devices along the A90 Aberdeen to Dundee road. Scottish Conservatives said police data released to the party showed 124 of 272 accidents over the last four years “would not likely have been helped by the money-spinning measure”. North-east MSP Liam Kerr claimed “far more” collisions are happening at junctions, private entrances, and roundabouts than thought, and the vehicles involved were likely to have been “slow-moving and certainly not fast enough to be detected by cameras”.’

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/new-a90-average-speed-cameras-would-not-have-prevented-half-of-road-accidents/

However, On 8^th February 2018, strong evidence that the average speed cameras are playing a big part in reducing fatalities on the roads, emerged:

‘A9 deaths halved since average speed cameras installed The number of deaths on the A9 between Dunblane and Inverness has fallen by almost half since average speed cameras were installed. Since the devices were put on place on the route in October 2014, which is the country’s longest trunk road, road safety data shows annual road deaths have declined by 49%. The overall number of all types of casualties has fallen by more than a quarter (28%) while the amount of drivers caught speeding has shrunk by two-thirds (66%).’

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1407954-deaths-on-a9-halved-since-average-speed-cameras-installed/

Speed cameras have of course been opposed by the Scottish Tories, Lib-Dems and of course Jeremy Clarkson. Here’s what they had to say earlier:

Back in January 2017, Jeremy Clarkson, raged against the denial of his freedom to speed, after the installation of the average speed camera system, on Scotland’s most dangerous road, the A9. It’s that kind of Toad of Toad Hall, Libertarian / Right-wing thinking Clarkson specialises in. In November that same year, the Scottish Conservative, MSP Liam Kerr, presumably their Boy Racer Spokesman, featured in the Evening Express, questioning their value on the A90, Aberdeen to Dundee:

‘New A90 average speed cameras would not have prevented half of road accidents. New figures left transport chiefs facing fresh questions over their decision to fix the unpopular devices along the A90 Aberdeen to Dundee road. Scottish Conservatives said police data released to the party showed 124 of 272 accidents over the last four years “would not likely have been helped by the money-spinning measure”. North-east MSP Liam Kerr claimed “far more” collisions are happening at junctions, private entrances, and roundabouts than thought, and the vehicles involved were likely to have been “slow-moving and certainly not fast enough to be detected by cameras”.’

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/new-a90-average-speed-cameras-would-not-have-prevented-half-of-road-accidents/

Come on lads, give in.

 

© Herald

Under the headline:

‘Labour bankroll Kezia Dugdale’s defence in Wings Over Scotland defamation case’

the Herald tells us about Kezia Dugdale’s defence against a £25 000 defamation case brought by outspoken, spirited, lively and sweet-toothed, pro-independence blogger, the Reverend Stuart Campbell and that her legal fees will be met out of the London Labour Party (no relation) income of £56 000 000 from massive recent increases in working-class membership – the ‘Corbyn Dividend.’

There’s no hint of recognition, in the Herald, that this may be in any way hypocritical or of moral condemnation other than in the Reverend’s own earlier comments:

‘Not by an open public crowd-funder, where thousands of ordinary people kick in a modest few quid of their own free will, not even out of the money she grabbed by leveraging her modest fame and power to abandon her constituents and go on a celebrity TV show, but by a shady backer who hasn’t been officially identified, isn’t answerable to anyone, and isn’t available to ordinary members of the public.’

I thought crowd-funding to raise legal fees was ‘dragging Scotland into the gutter’, intimidating the victim and make decent people angry? See:

As a person of professorial standing (sometimes?), your village (global) teacher perhaps (???), here, I think it only right that I side with that second pillar in our very stable Scottish community, the minister. Ultimately, I expect to stand with the Reverend, the bank manager Fred Goodwin Junior, and village constable, PC Ayerite, when they leave the local boozer, in condemning the hypocrisy of Scottish Labour.

Who’s with me?

 

 

Look at that! Six out of the seven top stories are broadly sympathetic to the SNP. Is this a last-ditch attempt to get readers? All their trolls will be heading across to the Scottish Daily Mail to find their natural environment.

NOOOOOO Now they print an article by Brian Wilson which I agree with! What’s going on? Is this psychological warfare to drive us mad?

Save me, readers!

 

 

 

 

(c) offshoreenergytoday.com

From Energy Voice today:

‘A bumper crop of more than 100 new apprentices are swelling the ranks of the North Sea oil and gas workforce. They are part of the biggest intake an industry-wide scheme has seen since oil prices crashed in late 2014. Their recruitment and the number of young people involved have been hailed as a major boost for the sector as it continues to recover from the most severe and prolonged downturn in its history. A total of 105 students are joining the industry next week through the Oil and Gas Technical Apprentice Programme (Ogtap), up from 74 a year ago and nearly double the number who joined the scheme in 2016.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/180618/apprentices-swell-the-ranks-of-north-sea-oil-and-gas/

This is further evidence of Scotland’s strengthening youth employment which exceeds that of the UK as a whole:

3 500 additional new-style apprenticeships confirmed for Scotland in 2018 as Scottish Government pushes on to increase youth employment further ahead of rUK

Bias by delay and lack? Scotsman takes three months to understate Scottish Government achievement on youth employment

‘Scottish electrical apprenticeship numbers rise to nearly pre-recession heights’ as Scotland’s youth unemployment falls to 5th best out of 29 European countries

Scottish Government meets its youth employment target four years early to place Scotland as among the most successful in Europe

‘Scotland’s youth unemployment rate is now the lowest since records began and it’s the second lowest youth unemployment rate in the EU. Scotland’s productivity grows four times faster than UK’

It is also evidence of returning business confidence in the North Sea:

As Scottish oil industry booms, Aberdeen contractors more confident but Scottish media pay little attention.

Is Aberdeen booming again?

More real evidence of economic strength: number of Scots getting permanent jobs has ‘risen sharply.’

300 renewable energy jobs boom for North of Scotland expected at Nigg Energy Park

Up to 400 new jobs for Shell field in North Sea. Lots of tax revenue too? No?

Three new wind-farms in outer Tay and Forth estuaries to bring thousands of construction jobs to Scotland

13% increase in Salmon farming jobs as Scottish salmon sales help UK exports hit record high

Hundreds of new jobs likely for Nigg Energy Park

 

Remember that, in the Daily Torygraph too? It was on 30th October 2017. How many have been sacked?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/29/theresa-may-will-sack-cabinet-ministers-found-sex-pests-13-mps/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_fb

 

Or this in June 2018? Two former Tory mayors were convicted of multiple child-sex offences in just 48 hours. One of them was found guilty of raping a young girl, while the other admitted to over 20 counts of child abuse.

https://www.rt.com/uk/430317-tory-mayor-sexual-assault/

Or that one in 2014? Sir Nicholas Fairbairn and former party Scottish chairman Dr Alistair Smith were named as suspects in the historic abuse of underage boys. Labour justice spokesman Graeme Pearson said a public inquiry “cannot afford to leave any stone unturned and it must have the confidence of the victims”. Four years later, any developments?

I could go on and on for the Tories with their trail of slime disappearing back in time.

Labour, in sharp contrast, have been all over the Salmond case. Though somewhat less ‘active’ than the Tories, they’d do well to remember these unresolved matters:

 

I’ll stop there.