Talking-up Scotland

(c) dailymail.co.uk (where else?)

A survey by the University of Edinburgh along with Cardiff University, reported in the National, suggests that 88% of leave voters would be content to lose Scotland as long as they got out of the EU.

For me, though, the most interesting part was the results for Tory voters in the sample.

92% thought Scotland leaving the Union would be an acceptable price to pay to take back control. Less pleasing was the fact that 81% were prepared to accept the destabilisation of the Irish peace process to the same end.

So much for the Conservative and Unionist party then?

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15567727.Nearly_90__of_England_s_Leave_voters_would_sacrifice_the_Union_to_ensure_Brexit_happens/

Note: Above map status 2015

There’s some debate across social media as to whether Scotland can legally ban fracking or whether it will an ‘effective’ ban through devolved control of planning permission refusals and the denial of environmental licences. The newspapers seem convinced that they can put in place a permanent ban and replace the moratorium.

‘Revealed: SNP will ban fracking in Scotland’: Herald

Either way, the prospects for fracking have surely been long dead on the basis of health risks, the unsuitability of Scotland’s geology and the fact that resource booms leave regions worse off once they fade out. See:

Expert Opinion on Fracking Health Risks from New York Medical Professionals

Why the UK’s geology means fracking will never come to Scotland and should never have been allowed in England because it’s 55 000 000 years too late!

Academic Evidence against fracking in Central Scotland

In addition, a third US state, Maryland, has just announced a ban, after New York and Vermont. See:

http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2017/oct/01/maryland-becomes-third-state-to-ban-fra/?f=news

Across Europe, fracking bans are in place in many countries and, in others, it has been obstructed in other ways. See map above.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_trade_in_the_Middle_Ages

As we hurtle toward the Brexit cliff with the likelihood of damage to our economy, the SNP Government is attempting forge stronger economic, cultural and social links with the Scandinavian and Baltic countries. Scotland, of course, has a long history of such links going back centuries so this development is welcome. On this, see

Cargoes and Commodities. Aberdeen’s Trade with Scandinavia and the Baltic, c1302-c.1542 by David Ditchburn at: https://ssns.org.uk/resources/Documents/NorthernStudies/Vol27/Ditchburn_1990_Vol_27_pp_12_22.pdf

The Scottish Government is developing a policy statement with a view to strengthening connections in the environment, fishing, tourism, education and energy to at least, in part, compensate for a hard Brexit.

The full statement can be read here: Nordic-Baltic Policy Statement.

The gov.scot news report mentions the following possibilities as examples of areas of fruitful exchange:

• Norwegian expertise in carbon capture and storage
• Sweden’s bottle return scheme
• Finnish action on the attainment gap
• Estonia’s approach to digital transformation

The Europe Minister said:

‘Scotland wants a continuing close relationship with the rest of Europe, particularly our northern neighbours, and I believe this new Nordic-Baltic statement can help articulate and secure many important connections in the future.’

As the Auditor General for Scotland said recently of the Scottish Government’s performance – ‘sound’, ‘effective’.

https://news.gov.scot/news/northern-neighbours

I’m not sure whether this is good news or whether it reinforces the dour stereotype. A survey by the Carnegie Trust UK of 5 000 people of all ages across the UK and Ireland found that Scots:

• had the highest proportion of people using a passcode to protect their phone
• were as likely to verify information against another source than not verify it
• had the highest proportion of people reporting to use a passcode
• were most likely to turn off location services
• were more likely to use a different (non-real) name online
• were less likely to use public wifi online banking

So, different again?

http://futurescot.com/scots-security-conscious-mobile-phones/

(c) yournewswire.com

Well, I thought it was blahdy good news at first but, on examination, it looks less so. That was the Daily Express’s indignant headline on Thursday suggesting the Queen was going to be hit with a big one. The land valuation and shooting tax came into law in Scotland last year and letters are going out this week informing landowners how much taxation they will be due. It’ll be between 38p and £1 per acre for land that is used for shooting birds and deer.

Our multi-millionaire Queen has about 70 000 acres so that’d be, at most, £70 000 per year. For the multi-millionaire Duke of Buccleugh it won’t be any more than £240 000. Danish multi-millionaire Anders Holch Povlsen will pay at most £220 000. These are hardly ‘hefty’ or ‘huge’ as the Express reports them. Also, estates worth less than £15 000 will be exempt and the largest estates will get a ‘volume discount.’ We’ll hear soon what the actual tax bills are but it’s not looking too exciting especially when presumably not all of their land is used for shooting and they might be paying as little as 38p per acre.

According to the Express:

‘Supporters of the law say it will throw out the “feudal and ache” system, but critics say it is designed to drive out English landlords.’

Neither Buccleugh nor Povlsen are English. Maybe the Queen is.

In total, more than a million acres of land in Scotland is used to shoot animals for sport, including grouse, deer and pheasant but if these estates are too wee or too big, it looks like they’ll be paying even less than the not-so-hefty bills estimated above.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/859818/Queen-facing-HUGE-bill-over-Nicola-Sturgeon-s-dreaded-shooting-tax-rules/amp

Footnote: I got the above photograph from this entertaining site:

http://yournewswire.com/queen-elizabeth-shapeshifting-on-live-tv-goes-viral/

 

I’ll keep this short as it’s not a particularly riveting read for the non-accountants among us.
When reporting negatively, the Scottish Auditor General doesn’t hold back so this praise is worth remarking upon. She:

• said the Scottish Government produced a sound financial report for 2016/17 and managed its budget effectively;
• highlights the Scottish Government’s good record of financial management and reporting;
• said her independent audit opinion on the 2016/17 accounts is unqualified.
• Said the Scottish Government managed its overall 2016/17 budget of £33.96 billion well, reporting a small underspend of £85 million.

Noting some of these words that I’ve emboldened, this is a glowing report for a government that clearly knows what it’s doing. Who in the Labour or Tory cohorts do you imagine could match this competence? Go through the faces and see if you can keep a straight one yourself.

http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/uploads/docs/report/2017/s22_170928_scottish_gov_pr.pdf

Scotland already has a trade surplus, is the only part of the UK to have had one over previous years and it’s growing. This makes Scotland a better long-term economic prospect than rUK. See:

England runs massive trade deficit. Only Scotland has a viable sustainable economy, exporting more than she imports thus requiring no national debt

England ran a massive trade deficit in 2014 and 2015 too. Scotland had an even greater surplus in those years. Who knows how much we’ve been subsidising the UK balance of payments and reducing debt over the years?

Insider magazine has reported that one third of Scottish firms had an export boost in the last three months which they attribute entirely to the fall in the value of the pound. I suspect that’s unfair to the industries making these increases through the production of ever higher quality goods and, in tourism, through the growing appeal of Scottish destinations. The Royal Bank of Scotland, in the article, predict this growth will continue into 2108.

http://www.insider.co.uk/news/export-growth-rates-among-scottish-11254248

(c) marketwatch.com

I wrote this in July:

Will Scotland’s oil hit $100 (or more?) a barrel again after 2020?

Not many people seemed to take it seriously and mainstream media persisted with tales of an industry in trouble. I’ve kept reporting every story of oil recovery I can find despite my preference for green energy solutions because that same media and their Unionist political co-travellers have delighted in telling Scots it’s all over and that we’d have an economy like Greece if we’d become independent by 2016. Now, it’s their game that is over as Reuters report in CNBC that £100 per barrel is likely even sooner than I predicted (2020) in 2018! See this:

‘LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) – When crude prices crashed in early 2016 to $27 per barrel, most industry executives said the world had seen the last of oil at $100. Almost two years later, as a global crude glut shows signs of receding, the oil options market has seen a spike in activity at $100 a barrel, indicating some oil bulls are betting the price could trade around that level by this time next year. The oil price has hit its highest since 2015 and after having shied away from $60 a barrel this week, the chances of a rally beyond this point seem remote. But that hasn’t stopped some punters from snapping up December 2018 buy options at $100 at bargain-basement prices.’

Now these punters are not like the Edinburgh professor who predicted only ten years of oil left in the North Sea. Unlike him they have something to lose if they’re wrong – millions of dollars. I know who I believe.

Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand, said in the FT in August:

‘In 2014, after four years at being around $110 a barrel, most analysts were saying wed never see prices go back below $100 … Now everyone is arguing were never going back there, but I don’t really buy that the cost of production has gone down structurally or that electric cars will have a big enough impact on demand.’

I’ve reported before that if the USA started right now to replace all its transport system with electric vehicles it would take 12 years and as for India with its millions of new petrol-driven car owners every year well…..

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/29/reuters-america-want-to-bet-on-100-oil-in-2018-some-investors-already-have.html

See also:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarian-fund-managers-expect-oil-prices-to-double-to-100-by-2018-2017-03-21

 

Back in 2014, the oily Alex Massie, one of many doubters, wrote in the Tory mag, the Spectator:

‘Top of Form

Bottom of Form

True, Scots are more likely than other Britons to identify with the left but when it comes to actual individual policies they are much closer to the British average than is commonly presumed. Nice, kind, progressive Scotland is a myth as cherished as it is, well, mythical.‘

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2014/05/scotching-a-myth-scotland-is-not-as-left-wing-as-you-think-it-is/

In the months before the Referendum, BBC Scotland used our money to commission a survey which again seemed to suggest we were not that different from our southern neighbours on issues like immigration, taxation and welfare. It beats me why they think attitudes to immigration can be classified as a left or right-wing.

 

However, this new survey from YouGov, on attitudes to capitalism and how it is currently operating, does seem to demonstrate that Scots are significantly more concerned about it. See below:

Which of the following comes closest to your view on capitalism in Britain today?

%	Total		London		Rest of South		Midlands Wales		North		Scotland
Capitalism is working well in Britain and does not need tinkering with	17		18		21		16		14		11
Capitalism isn’t working properly and Britain, and needs to be fixed as it is the best way we have to run	33		34		34		35		27		39
Capitalism is harmful to Britain and there are other, better ways to manage society	17		17		14		18		17		22
Don’t know	33		31		31		31		42		28

 

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/844dd1bc-a42f-11e7-a111-4b12f9bd0a33/question/d935a8c6-a42f-11e7-a111-4b12f9bd0a33/region

The lumping together of Wales and the Midlands is both puzzling and probably distorting. While 61% of Scots have negative perceptions of capitalism, in none of the English regions do more than 50% share that view. London, even with its large pockets of poverty only just passes 50%. I suspect a discrete figure for Wales might approach the Scottish one but combining it with the English Midlands seems likely to have concealed that. I find it remarkable that the impoverished and neglected North has only 44% with negative views but again that figure is misleading in its conflation of the more affluent areas in the North with the North-East around Newcastle. We’re often told the Northern English are more like us in their political views.

Remember, this survey was done after the Corbyn surge too.

So, to my mind, this is more evidence we are different enough to be a different country.

(c) dailymail.co.uk

We take 26% of the Syrian refugees. We give all new mothers a baby box. We don’t charge for higher learning or for prescriptions. We have the highest organ donor rate in the UK. We have the best NHS. We are first to remove period poverty. We provide free care for our elderly. Even our tooth fairies are more generous. Are even our business people more principled?

I know this is a difficult one. I’m not saying that we’re all more collectivist, communitarian and responsible than all the folk south of the border. Clearly, we’re not [See the Labour Party revival there] but are our business people more principled on average than those in the, especially, deep south of the UK? I don’t have survey results for England so there’s no possibility to make any stronger assertions. I leave it as a thought, only that. Here’s an extract from the SSE survey reported in Insider magazine yesterday:

‘A survey by SSE Business Energy of more than 200 business leaders found overwhelming backing for firms being more environmentally responsible, paying their full amount of tax and paying staff the Living Wage. Bottom of Form. .

Top of Form

Bottom of Form

Trading responsibly with consideration for the environment, suppliers and staff could be the key to unlocking future growth for Scottish businesses, a new survey has suggested.’

Now, I know what some of you are thinking (Fred the Shred?). Don’t be cynical. You’ll stick like that.

http://www.insider.co.uk/news/nine-out-10-scottish-business-11253035