Talking-up Scotland

(c) Image PA

We all remember meeting or hearing of 16 and 17-year-olds who were very enthusiastic, engaged and, often, well-informed at the time of the Scottish Referendum in 2014. Despite that, there is still some hostility toward allowing further participation by this group in other electoral processes. Our long-standing knowledge of the low turnout and apparent lack of knowledge of political affairs of the 18-24-year-old group has sometimes led critics to oppose the emancipation of the younger group on similar grounds. However, recent research by the London School of Economics is strong evidence that this negative view is incorrect.

In the review preceding their own survey, the LSE authors point out:

• We already know that the younger first-time voters are, the greater their participation. This effect is observed in multiple studies and is strongly pronounced for 16- to 17-year-olds.
• It could also be observed in the Scottish context where the above-cited participation rate for these ages (75%) was much higher than the estimate for 18-24-year-olds (54%).
• Voting earlier, while still being in school and more likely to live at home, is likely to increase voter participation, not reduce it.

The authors also tackle the popular view that the majority of the adult population are against 16-year-olds having the vote. While it is true that only 33% were in favour before the Scottish Referendum, this has now doubled to 60%, in Scotland, after people actually witnessed the frankly wonderful enthusiasm, intelligence and knowledge of that group, face-to-face or on TV, in the months leading up to the Scottish Referendum. The researchers state:

‘For the Scottish context, we then find, for example, that the levels of political interest in the independence referendum amongst those younger than 18 was very similar to that of the adult population overall.’

In 2015, the LSE researchers interviewed 16 and 17-year-olds across the UK to see:

‘whether levels of political engagement and political attitudes systematically differed for 16- and 17-year-old Scots compared to their peers in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.’

They found:

‘that the newly enfranchised young people in Scotland indeed show substantially higher levels of engagement with representative democracy (through voting) as well as other forms of political participation (such as signing petitions and taking part in demonstrations); and they engage with a greater range of information sources about politics and reflect greater levels of political efficacy.’

And concluded:

‘The findings indeed suggest that earlier enfranchisement, together with other factors (such as the referendum, civic education, and parental socialisation) had a positive impact on young people in Scotland. Further research will be required to examine whether these positive effects are long-lasting. Evidence from Austria – where the voting age was lowered in 2007 and where similar first-time boosts could be observed – is encouraging, as later observations still confirmed the initial patterns.’

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/votes-at-16-new-evidence-from-scotland/

The researchers may have missed the effects of the fairly recent introduction of Scottish affairs into the teaching of National 4/5 and Higher History, and Modern Studies, and the new Politics Higher. That Scottish history or political affairs were not taught in any serious manner until quite recently would, of course, not have occurred to researchers based in England. Perhaps, more obvious, it seems strange that the researchers did not appear to have investigated the impact of social media especially the huge number of Facebook groups informing, debating and organising, especially the Yes campaign. Much research had already been done into the role of Facebook in the Arab Spring by this time, so we might have expected it to be an obvious area for investigation.

Anyway, as I hope you are, I’m much encouraged by these findings. There were 100 000 of these young voters in 2014. By 2018, a further 200 000 will be in the frame and we know they’re more likely to be Yes than No voters.

© Daily Record

That’s the typically restrained headline from the Sun, above, for the new £100 million epic being produced for Netflix, on the life of Robert the Bruce. It’s expected to have levels of violence comparable to Game of Thrones and, I expect, a bit more accuracy than Braveheart as it will be scripted by Scottish writer David Mackenzie who previously wrote the critically acclaimed Young Adam and Hallam Foe.

We know that Outlander has had a part to play in Scotland’s recent tourism boom. See these earlier reports:

‘Outlander links see visitors to historic sites soaring’

Tourism spending in Scotland surges ahead of UK figure

We can surely expect further increases after Outlaw King is released. Hopefully it will not be held back before Indeyref2, as Outlander was for the first referendum in 2014. Filming was completed last month but I can’t find a release date. I’ve already considered whether Outlander alone might have an effect on Indyref2 at:

Outlander arrives on Freeview TV. Can it affect the outcome of Indyref2?

I suppose the key issue/concern is that it accurately reflects the popular nature of the struggle and doesn’t focus just on the personal vanity and ambitions of an Anglo-Scottish aristocrat.

Footnote: Here’s a short amateur video and stills of two of the film locations:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQBMRSreTdY

https://www.berwick-advertiser.co.uk/news/watch-outlaw-king-filming-in-berwick-1-4583126

Scotland’s 5.3 million population represents only one twelfth or just 8% of the UK’s total population of 65.6 million. From January to September 2017, UK food and drink exports increased 11.0% to £16.1bn against the same period in 2016.

http://www.fdf.org.uk/exports/ukexports-2017q3.aspx

Scottish food and drink exports rose to £4.3 billion in the same period. This suggests Scotland produced 26.7% of the UK’s food and drinks exports with only 8% of the population.

https://news.gov.scot/news/exports-continue-to-grow

This alone indicates a very sustainable basis to underpin the economy of any independent country especially one that already has a long-standing overall trade surplus, massive renewable energy production and, oh, a few billion barrels of oil currently selling at over $60pb. These are just the ‘overseas’ exports from Scotland but how much do we ‘export’ to the rest of the UK? We do know that Scotland’s overall exports to the UK are around £50 billion and that 4.8% of that was food and drink. So that would be £2.4 billion’s worth.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38743532

If we can export a total of £6.7 billion’s worth of food and drink, I suspect that we are more than self-sufficient should we need to keep it all in some future crisis. I know, we’d be a bit drunk too if we had to keep all the whisky for some reason. However, see this UK government table showing its massive trade deficit in food:

3.4 UK trade in different food groups, 2016

Note that in 2016: ‘[T]he value of imports was greater than the value of exports in each of the broad categories of food, feed and drink except ‘Beverages’ which had a trade surplus of £1.35 bn, largely due to exports of Scotch Whisky.’

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

So, given the UK’s massive need for imported food and drink, it looks like our £2.4 billion’s worth of mostly salmon, beef and whisky is quite a small, if tasty, contribution to a hopelessly unsustainable economy.

(c) GETTY/Daily Express

The current legislation allows foxes to be flushed from cover and then shot but, in many cases, this relatively humane approach is either flouted or mismanaged with a Scottish Government review suggesting that around 160 foxes are brutally killed by the hounds out of the total of 800 killed altogether, every year.

The SNP national council has now shifted their policy to make the practice illegal and to limit the number of hounds to two. This may be a sensible and humane response which does not require a complete ban on hunting foxes as suggested by the Green Party. While I’m sympathetic to the Green Party’s plan, I’m not sure if a complete ban is required. You may know more than I do about this so do contradict me and explain why.

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/countryside-alliance-accuses-snp-%E2%80%9Cworst-examples-political-prejudice%E2%80%9D-after-party#.WiqEBYRizg0.twitter

In England, the Tories plan a free vote on repealing the ban of hunting with packs of hounds altogether:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3520507/theresa-may-pledges-to-hold-a-free-vote-to-repeal-the-fox-hunting-ban-if-she-wins-the-general-election/

Is this just another of the many small ways in which Scotland is different and different enough? See this for a reminder of some of the others:

8% of the UK population and 28% of living wage employers. More evidence that we are different enough to want to run the whole show?

 

The above graph shows, to the end of September 2017, the trade deficits of every other part of the UK and Scotland’s now long-standing surplus.  Further, Scotland’s exports increased to the end of June, by 20%, while those of England increased by only 14%, suggesting the gap in the overall economic performance of the two countries is widening.

At the same time, the UK’s overall trade deficit widened to £8.9 billion reflecting increased imports. You can see from the above graph that this deficit is long-standing

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-overseas-trade-in-goods-statistics-october-2017

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/june2017

You’ll see from previous reports detail of the nature of Scotland’s booming export industries and the role the Scottish Government has played in supporting this trend:

Scottish food and drink exports still booming so is it still only 28% of the UK’s food and drink exports? We’re still only 8% of the population

13% increase in Salmon farming jobs as Scottish salmon sales help UK exports hit record high

After 45% increase in Whisky exports to China, they cut the tariffs by 10%. Eh?

26% increase in Scottish pharmaceuticals exports in just five years.

Scottish Government grants to further boost Scotland’s food and drink industry which already produces 28% of all UK exports

The unavoidable conclusion is that Scotland continues to be saddled with debt she has not incurred yet which is used in the GERS figures to suggest falsely that Scotland’s economy is weaker than it really is.

Footnote: N Ireland has (small) trade surplus for the first time in years.

(c) digit.fyi

Funded by the Scottish Government via Scottish Enterprise and Subsea UK, in association with the Nippon Foundation, the research will focus on two major themes:

‘One of the programme’s two themes will be subsea digital oilfield technologies, including real-time underwater communication, inspection, monitoring and control, sensors, robotics and artificial intelligence. The second theme of subsea oil and gas innovation will focus on well productivity, intervention and design, low-cost drilling, decommissioning, subsea factory development, remote monetisation and developing challenging fields.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/australasia/157903/scotland-japan-link-get-15m-research-fund/

Regular readers will know that Scottish expertise in oil, gas and renewable energy generation is now as valuable as the actual raw material resources in our seas. See these earlier reports:

Scotland’s expertise in renewable power generation now worth billions

Scotland’s oil and gas expertise earned £11.4 billion in 2015/2016 supported by Scottish Government investment

Scottish subsea expertise to the fore again

Almost a year ago, I could report that Scottish businesses were advising in more than 40 countries including the government of Japan, providing cranes to build wind farms in Morocco and South Africa and working with the World Bank in Chile.

Happy New Year Story: Scotland’s ‘renewable energy expertise’ in demand worldwide, says new research. At least 14 news agencies report it but BBC Scotland, STV?

I see the Herald did a quite good news story on the Joseph Rowntree Foundation findings on poverty in Scotland:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15701129.Scotland_boasts_lowest_levels_of_poverty_in_the_UK/

Maybe they’ll go large and generous on this one too? BBC Scotland News? Hmmm…not so sure.

Deputy First Minister John Swinney is leading a delegation of 21 senior staff from Scotland’s 19 higher education institutions to Mumbai and Delhi as the impending Brexit deal and the home office’s hard-line (see below) threatens the flow of EU students, endangering the viability and reducing the influx of talent to our universities.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/06/home-office-wants-eu-students-crackdown-brexit-leak-reveals

There are currently 1 300 Indian students studying in Scotland and they are generally considered to be of high quality bringing both fee income and, when allowed to stay, often become involved in cutting-edge profitable research here. See for example:

Scottish university research to help developing nations remove arsenic from water supplies

Scotland’s world-leading expertise to the fore again in India and Bangladesh

As India’s population surges beyond 1 billion and as its middle class grows quickly, the demand for good quality higher education will grow exponentially and well beyond that which can be provided in India. There is a real opportunity for our quite large and well-respected HE sector to meet some of that demand, to the mutual benefit of both countries. Scottish Higher Education is relatively big for the size of the country, generating a great deal of wealth, so this initiative in particularly important. Scotland’s HE sector employs 38,450 people, supports over 142,000 jobs in the Scottish economy and creates £1.3 billion of export earnings from outside Scotland. Scotland has 15 universities while Denmark with roughly the same population (5-6 million) has only eight. As with the recent Scottish Governments initiatives to forge stronger trade links with the Arctic, Scandinavian and Baltic countries, in informed anticipation of damage to our trade after Brexit, this is an example of a government doing what it should be doing to protect and nurture our economic and cultural links. See this on these new links:

SNP leadership on hectic northern hemisphere mission, from the Baltic to Canada and a’ pairts atween thaim, to save Scottish Economy from Tory incompetence

See this on the almost certainly disproportionately severe damage to Scotland’s economy from Brexit:

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/no-deal-brexit-would-cost-scottish-economy-30bn-over-5-years-1-4594589

https://www.universities-scotland.ac.uk/scotlands-universities-welcome-india/

Looks like a no-brainer for our brainier colleagues.

‘In England, the proportion of children reaching a good level of development at age five has increased, but the attainment gap has remained fairly constant at 20 percentage points. The attainment gap remains fairly constant through primary school, meaning that the difference in attainment between those from richer and poorer backgrounds remains around 20 percentage points at age 11. This gap widens through secondary school, to around 28 percentage points by age 16 and 25 percentage points at age 19.

In Scotland, children aged five living in the most deprived areas were 16 percentage points less likely to reach the expected standard in reading, and 14 percentage points less likely in numeracy than those living in the least deprived areas. By age 11, these gaps increased to more than 20 percentage points. They remained at this level in the results of school leavers (age 16), having fallen from 33 percentage points in 2009/10.’ (P87)

I’ve taken out the Wales and N Ireland figures from the above long paragraph, to simplify the reading of this. It would have been better in a table but, what is clear, first, is that the attainment gap is only the same for 11-year-olds (difficult early adolescent boys) in both countries at 20% but the gap for 5-year-olds is only 16% in Scotland compared to 20% in England and for 16-year-olds the gap in Scotland is only 20% compared to 28% in England. Second, note the massive fall in the gap from 33% to 20% in the period of SNP Government.

 

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-2017

(c) goodtoknow.co.uk

‘The proportion of people eating the recommended amount of fruit and vegetables each day varies across income groups. Over a third (39%) of people in the richest fifth of the population eat the recommended amount, falling to only 15% of those in the poorest fifth. There are no significant differences between England, Wales, Scotland and NorthernIreland.’ (P79)

See, English comedians, and some Scots too?

 

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-2017

 

I think some eye-catching points got lost in my large piece of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation report on Poverty in the UK, so I’m re-posting excerpts:

 

Looking at a summary of trends in mental health care over last 20yrs, we read this somewhat minimalist statement for the poorest fifth of the population:

 

Adult physical health (UK, working-age adults) – Worse

Adult mental health (England) – Worse

Adult mental health (Scotland) – Better

Young people’s mental health – No change (P9)

I know there’s an awful lot left to be done here but the context is at least encouraging.

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-2017