Talking-up Scotland

(c) sheppardrobson.com

BBC News at 6, last night, used the 84.6% treated in 4 hours figure, for all A&E departments in England to compare with the Scottish figure of 87.1% and the very low figures for Wales and N Ireland. This led to audiences seeing quite a small gap, between the English and Scottish departments.

BBC should know that England has two types, 1 and 2, and that only Type 1 or ‘major’ is comparable with A&E departments elsewhere in the UK. The figure for Type 1 in England was just 76.4% of patients treated within the four-hour target at major A&E departments in March 2018.

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/commissioning/commissioning-topics/urgent-care/march-sees-worst-ever-ae-waiting-times-and-growing-waiting-lists/20036519.article

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Emergency-Care/Publications/2018-04-10/2018-04-10-ED-Weekly-Summary.pdf?13552492857

(c) healthscotland.com

BBC Scotland News, early this morning, were keen to scare young mothers, the elderly and relatives, with tales of unfilled health visitor vacancies. It reminded me of other early morning nightmares on BBC:

The Power of Early Morning Nightmares and Expectant Mothers: BBC Scotland callously undermines the morale of midwives, their patients, expectant mothers and their relatives, with highly selective and un-contextualised information

The Scotsman and the Herald joined in with

‘Health visitor vacancies up 50 per cent in a year amid ageing workforce fears’

‘Health visitor vacancy rates on the rise as target looms’

That ‘vacancies up by 50%’ bit does sound a bit worrying at first but when you get a bit of context, it fades.

There were 1 448 Health visitors as of December 2017, 12.1% up on 2016. Could that have been the headline instead BBC? If not, why not? Too encouraging I suppose.

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Workforce/Publications/2018-03-06/2018-03-06-Workforce-Report.pdf

There were 144 health visitor posts unfilled in December 2017, up from 93 in 2016. Ideally, they would be filled, but a 10% shortfall, against the background of nearly 160 new health visitors in one year, it looks less than a crisis. NHS England, as far as I can see, do not publish separate figures for health visitors as responsibility for commissioning them was transferred to Local Authorities in October 2015:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/health-visitors/

How to deal with troublesome targets – pass responsibility to someone else or, as in A&E, abandon them altogether?

(c) STV

Now and again BBC Scotland’s website reports good news without recourse to an opposition politician’s fib used as ‘balance’. Yesterday, they wrote:

‘Kidney transplants from dead donors have reached record levels in Scotland, according to figures from NHS Blood and Transplant. In 2017-18, 208 such transplants were carried out. This represented a 27% rise on the previous year’s figures. There was also an increase in the number of transplants from living donors, up from 86 to 95.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-43706769

That 10% increase in donation by living donors contrast sharply with the news for the ‘UK’:

‘Living kidney donation in UK at eight-year low, says NHS’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/mar/08/living-kidney-donation-uk-eight-year-low-nhs

For context, the contrasting 2016/17 levels of registration, donation and transplant, across the UK, were as below:

With 45% of the Scottish population, 2.4 million people, are now on the NHS Organ Donor Register. The figure for England is only 35%. For Northern Ireland it is 39% and for Wales it is 37%.

In 2016/2017 there were 133 deceased organ donors in Scotland. This represented a 34% increase from 99 in 2015/2016. A total of 348 people benefitted from transplants. This was the highest level in the UK and was a record figure for Scotland. This increase has contributed to a fall in the number waiting for a transplant to the lowest level on record.

However, the marked difference in the percentages on the donor list does not seem to be seriously restricting the use of donated organs in England by contrast with Scotland. In 2016/2017, first three quarters, there were 157 deceased and living donors in Scotland whose organs were used while in England there were 1522 used. England’s population is ten times that of Scotland, so this suggests only a slightly lower tendency to use donated organs in England.

There does seem to be a shortage of organs in the UK, but I could only find UK-wide figures from http://www.organdonation.nhs.uk:

‘Last year, 466 patients died in need of an organ and a further 881 were removed from the transplant waiting list. Many of them would have died shortly afterwards.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/busiest-ever-year-for-organ-donation

https://nhsbtdbe.blob.core.windows.net/umbraco-assets/1068/scotland.pdf

https://nhsbtdbe.blob.core.windows.net/umbraco-assets/1070/england.pdf

https://nhsbtdbe.blob.core.windows.net/umbraco-assets/1069/northern_ireland.pdf

https://nhsbtdbe.blob.core.windows.net/umbraco-assets/1518/wales.pdf

https://www.organdonation.nhs.uk/news-and-campaigns/news/highest-number-of-organ-transplants-ever-across-uk-but-many-families-still-say-no-to-donation/

(c) sbnn.co.uk

From Insider today:

‘Investment in Scottish property in the first quarter of 2018 reached £608 million, significantly ahead of the five-year average of £546m. The latest research from CBRE Scotland, a commercial property consultancy, reveals that investment in the first quarter of the year was led by a smaller number of high value deals with the total of £608m achieved across 28 transactions, compared with the five-year average of 44 deals.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/cbre-scotland-commercial-property-figures-12330945

Returning to a well-worn theme here, the above news is hard reliable evidence of a robust economy which contrasts with the unreliable estimates in GDP commonly used by anti-independence commentators. Investment in property, is of course only one indicator but there have been many more reported here. See these going back only to Autumn 2017:

Scottish economy is thriving on innovation as patent filing runs at 4 times the UK rate

And more evidence of a strong economy: starting salaries in Scotland increase at quickest rate for more than 3 years

17% increase in number of Scots planning to start a new business as Scottish economy strengthens

Scotland’s economy continues to show signs of good health and growth

Reports of a strong Scottish economy just keep coming. Now debt decrees down 93% in the last three months

More evidence Scottish economy is strong: Demand for office space in Glasgow highest for ten years

Clear signs of a robust economy? 15% increase in Edinburgh office take-up in 2017 and Glasgow set for a ‘stellar 12 months.’

Scottish businesses continue to show signs of health with insolvencies down 23% as the Scottish economy holds strong

The Auditor General strongly, with no qualifications, commends the Scottish Government on its ‘sound’ management of the economy. The lowest under-spend since devolution.

With only 8% of the population, Scotland’s maritime sector accounts for 25% of the UK maritime sector’s (GVA) contribution to the economy and is 17.5% more productive than the UK marine oil and gas sector. Once more, too wee, too poor?

12% increase in the formation of social enterprises in Scotland over only 2 years leads to a £2 billion economic contribution to Scottish economy.

England runs massive trade deficit. Only Scotland has a viable sustainable economy, exporting more than she imports thus requiring no national debt

As for GDP, see:

When will Scotland’s economics correspondents catch up with current thinking on GDP? When they can find something else to attack the SNP with.

It’s more than a year since the first signs of the ‘Third Wave’ of prosperity in the North Sea started to become apparent. See this from February 2017:

North Sea oil and gas is on the crest of a ‘Third Wave’ and the SNP Government is already supporting plans for it

Prices stabilising as high as $70 per barrel and new fields discovered in early 2018, suggest that the wave has not yet peaked. See this:

Oil prices to rise to $70 per barrel this summer as two new fields are discovered in last two weeks

Yesterday, on bp.com, we read:

‘BP today announced that it has committed to two new North Sea developments which are expected to produce 30,000 barrels gross of oil equivalent a day at peak production. Alligin and Vorlich are satellite fields located near to existing infrastructure meaning they can be quickly developed through established offshore hubs.’

At peak production, that’s $766 500 000 in revenue per year!

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/media/press-releases/bp-commits-to-two-new-north-sea-developments.html

Interesting that BP are happy to count the Atlantic/West of Shetland field, as part of the North Sea.

This announcement comes less than a year after this:

‘Oil major BP is celebrating the start of production from Quad 204, one of the largest field redevelopments in North Sea history. Operator BP and partners Shell and Siccar Point Energy expect the mega-project to deliver 450million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) from the Schiehallion and Loyal fields through to 2035 and beyond. BP initially set a budget of £3billion for Quad 204 but later chose to invest an additional £1.4billion to widen the subsea work scope, a BP spokeswoman said.’

See the phrase I highlighted? Ignore the word ‘Loyal’. It’ll be ours soon.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/139623/video-bp-hails-quad-204-start-oil-major-returns-north-sea-growth-articleisfree/

Let no one tell you the ‘North Sea’ is finished. The facts say otherwise. If you need more detail, see this:

Scotsman ignores the figures and chooses out-of-date comments to undermine perceptions of North Sea oil’s future prosperity

The top of the table today is above:

Wales is 7^th and Scotland is 8^th though we have more medals altogether than Wales. The elitist emphasis on gold medals means that South Africa and India are 5^th and 3^rd respectively, despite having fewer medals than Scotland. Canada is similarly disadvantaged.

However, when you take into account population, Wales and Scotland are seen to be the real winners alongside the Kiwis who we already knew were fit.

Based on all medals and the number of medals per head of population, for these 8 countries, we get:

Country                       Ratio of medals to population

1. Wales                1: 161 210 people
2. New Zealand   1: 191 748
3. Scotland          1: 200 174
4. Australia        1: 219 633
5. Canada          1: 926 315
6. England        1: 911 965
7. S Africa        1: 3 031 039
8. India            1: 7 065 563

 

I know, there will be a tiny country with one medal which is technically top. I also note the importance of poverty levels in India and South Africa, but Wales and Scotland are no more affluent than Canada, England or Australia.

 

 

(c) thedrinksbusiness.com

I know percentages greater than 100%, based on extended time periods, to get an eye-catching headline, just what I accuse others of doing. However, I’m doing it in a cool, self-aware, hipster, ironic way.

From the news.gov.scot site yesterday:

‘Total spend by Chinese visitors to Scotland has increased by 414% – from £7 million to £36 million since 2007. Over the same period, the number of visitors from China has increased by 192%, with 41,000 visits in 2016. The figures were highlighted by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in Beijing on the first full day of her visit to China. She attended an evening reception to preview a new global marketing campaign, launching later this week to invite people from around the world to live, work, visit and invest in Scotland.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/chinese-tourism-spend-increases

For whisky and kilt-related analysis of this trend see these:

Massive increase in Chinese visitors to Edinburgh NOT attributed to weak pound and attracted by ‘Strongman skirt parties’

After 45% increase in Whisky exports to China, they cut the tariffs by 10%. Eh?

For discussion of the ethical considerations when trading with countries with poor human rights records see:

Why Nicola Sturgeon has little reason to protest China’s human rights record

For discussion of the ethical considerations when trading with countries planning to bomb the shit out of more Syrian civilians in order to teach Syrian elites not to bomb the shit out of Syrian civilians, contact the US government.

(c) offshorewind.biz

68.1% of Scotland’s gross electricity consumption was met by renewables in 2017.

https://news.gov.scot/news/record-year-for-renewables-generation

Now in the first three months of 2018, alone, we hear from CNBC.com:

‘Onshore wind turbines in Scotland sent more than 5 million megawatt hours of electricity to the National Grid in the first quarter of 2018, analysis has shown. WWF Scotland said in an announcement Monday that the figure represented an increase of 44 percent compared to the same period in 2017. The analysis comes off the back of data released at the end of March which showed that renewable electricity generation in Scotland grew by 26 percent in 2017. Wind generation in Scotland increased by 34 percent, while hydro was up 9 percent.’

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/scotland-just-had-a-huge-three-months-of-wind-power-production.html

So, only 3 months into 2018 we see signs that the pace of growth is accelerating toward the 100% target before 2020. The 2017 figure was a 26% increase on 2016 and the 2016 figure was a 14% increase on 2015. Wind generation had, on its own, increased by 34% in 2017 so the 44% increase, from the 2017, January to March, figure to that in 2018, suggests an even faster accelerating trend in this form of generation.

 

Map: Scotland’s disused coalfields

In the Guardian today:

‘Scientists are finalising plans to exploit the vast reservoir of warm water that fills a labyrinth of disused mines and porous rock layers underneath Glasgow. They believe this subterranean store of naturally heated water could be used to warm homes in the city. If the system proves successful, such water could then be exploited in other cities and towns across Britain, they say. The £9m project will initially involve drilling narrow boreholes filled with instruments to survey temperature, seismic activity, water flow, acidity and other variables to establish the state of the water in the rocks below the city. The aim will be to establish whether this warm water can be extracted for long periods to heat Glaswegian homes.’

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/08/energy-home-heating-uk-cities-geology

Similar reports have already been posted here, at:

Clydebank homes to be heated using heat pump technology drawing water from the Clyde, 165 years after it was first suggested

Glasgow could heat thousands of homes from heat pumps placed on vacant ‘brownfield’ sites

Footnote: A glance at the map above suggests even greater prospects in Fife.

Here is the headline:

STV: GPs are working ‘up to 89 hours per week’, survey finds

Of course, the headline has little basis in evidence.

Here’s a bit of the STV report to set the scene:

‘While three fifths (61%) of family doctors work 39 hours a week or less, there are 371 who are working at least 50 hours a week. This includes 296 GPs working 50 to 59 hours a week, 50 who are doing 60 to 69 hours a week, 21 working 70 to 79 hours and four who are working 80 to 89 hours. The figures were revealed by health secretary Shona Robison in response to questions from the Liberal Democrats.’

https://stv.tv/news/scotland/1411978-gps-are-working-up-to-89-hours-per-week-survey-finds/

It’s the same old story of incomplete and unsubstantiated data used to create a dramatic yet at the same time, pathetic, headline in a desperate attempt to weaken the SNP. We don’t hear how many GPs were sampled, how the data was collected, what proportion of the sample responded or how the questions were worded. The reports are thus utterly inadequate for reaching the conclusion that general practice is in any sort of crisis.

I think, given that 371 reported working more than 39 hours per week and that 61% reported working 39 or less then the 371 represent 39% of the sample. If 371 GPs represent 39% then 9.5 GPs represent 1% of the sample and the total sample is thus 950.

There are around 4 900 GPs in Scotland and, so, the sample is 19.38% of the total number. As the survey is based on self-reporting of self-assessment of workload, this is highly subjective and only 1 in 5 GPs even bothered to respond. If the results were to be representative, of the profession as a whole, we’d need a better response rate.

Even if we were to accept the sample as valid and reliable, the 21 who reported working 80 to 89 hours, are only 2.2% of the sample of 950 and a tiny 0.4% of the total population of 4 900. This can be ignored as statistically insignificant. The same can be said of the 50 who reported working 60 to 69 hours. As for the 296 who reported working 50 to 59 hours, they represent only 31% of the self-selecting sample and only 6% of the total population.

Not in the reports, of course was any contextual information by which to judge the relative importance of the survey, such as these:

‘Scotland has more GPs per head of population than any other part of the UK, newly released statistics show’

Already the best staffed and least stressed in the UK, Scottish GPs to get better contracts

New Scottish GP contract rated far superior, by BMA, to English equivalent as Scottish GP numbers hold steady and NHS England loses 1 000 in one year!

Also absent, was any comparative data such as this:

Scotland continues to have more GPs per head of population than any other part of the UK and the number of GPs has remained constant. The number of GPs in Scotland has remained at around 4 900 since 2008.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/General-Practice/Publications/2017-12-12/2017-12-12-GPWorkforce2017-Report.pdf?36372011900

The latest figures for the number of GPs in the UK are:

• 41 985 GPs in England – last published in Sept 2016
• 4 953 GPs in Scotland (does not include locums) – last published Jan 2017 (350 locums in 2015)
• 2 887 GPs in Wales (includes 634 locums) – last published 30 Mar 2016
• 1 274 GPs in Northern Ireland (does not include locums) – last published Oct 2015

The number of locums in Scotland in 2015 was 350.

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/General-Practice/Publications/2016-06-14/2016-06-14-PrimaryCareWorkforceSurveyScotland2015-Report.pdf

So, the ratio of GPs to overall population is:

• England 1 GP for every 1262 people
• Scotland 1 GP for every 999 people
• Wales 1 GP for every 1060 people
• N Ireland 1 GP for every 1421 people

Above figures are from the BMA’s General practice in the UK – background briefing 2017

Once we point out its general lack of scientific validity and failure to contextualise, the Lib Dem’s story is revealed for what it truly is – baseless scare-mongering.