Second poll suggests introducing Independent Group into Scottish politics could push SNP back to full dominance at Westminster


A sub-poll of 114 Scots, for Opinium and the Observer with fieldwork on 26th February to 1st March 2019, found SNP support steady at 41% and seems to reinforce five previous sub-polls giving them between 40 and 44%:

 Conservatives  29%

Labour             19%

Lib Dems         6%

SNP                  41%

But when the breakaway Independent Group (TIG) is added, we get:

Conservatives  23%

Labour              25%

Lib Dems         1%

SNP                  44%

TIG                   1%

In the YouGov/Times poll on 22-23 February, introducing TIG seemed also to lead to the destruction of the Lib Dems. In sharp contrast, it also seemed to suggest desertion of Labour taking them down to 13% and the Tories up to 30%!

In this new sample, introducing TIG appears to have stiffened Labour loyalty with some turning back from desertion to the Tories or the Lib Dems once confronted with a potentially dangerous internal threat to party survival caused by some of ‘their own’ (all English). The psychology of a Labour supporter, first selecting the Tories to defend the Union then reverting to Labour, perhaps offended by the betrayal of posh English Blairites or the apparently unending MSM obsession with anti-semitism, is fascinating.

It’s a small sample, so the above conjecture is only that.

However, what is consistent in the two surveys is that the insertion of a TIG choice seems to trigger an SNP boost to 44% or 45% which could return then to almost full-spectrum dominance at Westminster.


6 thoughts on “Second poll suggests introducing Independent Group into Scottish politics could push SNP back to full dominance at Westminster

  1. Laura Dunn March 4, 2019 / 7:15 pm

    Pls do a piece on how scotland tackled knife crime.. Raging at this being politicised as a National problem. R.I.P all victims. Regards Laura

    Liked by 2 people

    • Legerwood March 4, 2019 / 7:34 pm

      Me too. First BBC news at 6 then Channel 4 news. Britain, Britain, Britain then Kathy Newman says it is a problem across the UK!!!!!!! At least the BBC did say occasionally: England and Wales

      Ch4 news has dealt with this issue on numerous occasions but only once has it reported from Scotland, Glasgow of course. The report was cursory to say the least and started with the statement that Glasgow, the murder capital of Europe.

      The news broadcasts tonight were awful. This is a serious issue yet what these reports showed was the very poor quality of the media. They failed to report this properly and as a result they left vast swathes of people in England unaware of alternative approaches and vast swathes of people in Scotland thinking it was just as bad here

      Liked by 2 people

  2. Contrary March 4, 2019 / 8:08 pm

    Well, this will be ALL OVER the news tomorrow,

    Joanna Cherry MP asked the question of the Home Secretary, in the House of Commons, about rising knife crime in England, detailing how knife crime has reduced in Scotland since 2007 (by 67% I think ) due to the Scottish government taking a holistic approach and treating it as a public health matter, using prevention in society and keeping young people out of the justice system. There is a lot of info, clearly detailed, in her question, and the Home Secretary, a bit reluctantly, agrees that they will be looking at Scotland’s strategy (the met has already been up getting some hot tips, and others too apparently). It’s a short video on her Twitter and well worth a watch.

    Liked by 4 people

  3. Contrary March 4, 2019 / 8:29 pm

    Scottish government have an event in Inverness on 25th March if anyone fancies it:

    ‘Arctic Day’. I thought it sounded like a good bank holiday / celebration event, but it’s just boring old Arctic Policy (didn’t know we had one, mind you) stuff, to make sure we are in tune with northern parts – sounds like we are trying to get much closer links in the arctic circle.

    Liked by 3 people

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