Even if Reporting Scotland, STV and the ‘Scottish’ press do their worst to keep the ‘Five Trials of Alex’ show running for months, to compete with Game of Thrones, how likely is Paul Hutcheon’s prediction, popular with other Yoons, that it will wear the SNP administration down?
Well it clearly hasn’t done so far as the most recent YouGov poll puts the SNP up at 40%, in a position to increase their seats by around 10, from 35 to 45 with Labour likely to become almost extinct again:
But, wait, can we learn anything from the past? Remember the Great SNP Civil War of August 2018? It must have been a big thing back then. Look at the mass coverage:
Surely that must have dented the popularity of the SNP? Let’s check the opinion polls in the period immediately after it:
Oooh, the SNP crashed down to as low as 36.5% in the October Survation poll! Oh, no, they seem to have recovered toward the end of the month, back up to 40%. They’re still at 40% with a bigger sample and that would give them an extra 10 seats, back up to 45. Worse still, Labour look like collapsing to 21% and get only one MP. Well! You’d think nobody was reading Paul or the Scotsman!
You have to admire their tenacity if not their mendacity. Remembering nothing and apparently learning nothing, each new juicy ‘SNP crisis’ sets them off again, like a pack of yapping jackals, with more daft predictions. They just don’t get the basic fact that the SNP, fixed hard to the philosophical principle that the desire for independence is of its essence and non-negotiable, will survive any personnel changes or other superficial set-backs. It’s not like the other parties, for whom there is no such equivalent. These are their values. If you don’t like them, they can change them.
Wait, what about the wider independence movement? Surely, those non-SNP folk must get scunnered by Sturgeon and Salmond?
Average? 47.4%? That’s dangerous. I’m going to phone MI5. What’s their number? It begins 007?
Talking-up Scotland 
What all of these dire prognostications ignore is the fact that independence is a concept that does not depend on one party or particular individuals. Undoubtedly individuals such as Mr Salmond and the FM have been significant players in creating the conditions which have led to the buoyant position of independence in the polls and many of us would be genuinely disappointed if either or both proved to be culpable in some measure.
All of these Nomedia ‘revelations; are directed at sustaining the beliefs of those who are committed to ‘our precious union’ especially those, who might be seen to be ‘a bit flaky’ from a proUnion perspective.
I can think of cases in my working life when particular leaders of trade unions were seen to be, and sometimes were, ‘shits’ or ‘bastards’, but because they often delivered benefits for the membership, many, simply accepted the deal, shrugged and rather cynically said, “I know he is a bastard, but he’s OUR bastard.”
I remember a TV report in the past two years which interviewed a number of people, who explicitly said that they were appalled by many of President Trump’s attitudes and statements, but because the economy was delivering FOR THEM, they continued to support him, even if they were holding their noses.
Look at how appallingly incompetent this Westminster Government and Mrs May in particular have been, yet, they continue to match and often surpass Labour in the opinion polls. Last night’s whopping defeat has been transformed into a powerful bargaining tool which forces the EU to rethink ITS (not Mrs May’s) deal and surrender to all of the UK Government’s demands. This came across loud and clear on today’s BBC Scotland phone in, where by a statistical freak virtually every caller was a Leave supporter who wanted No Deal or was allegedly a Remain supporter who now accepted the ‘will of the people’ and wanted out, ‘with no deal to get shot of these Europeans’.
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Entirely agree, Alasdair. BBC/Radio Scotland is a poor joke on us.
But imagine the Yoon “journalists” scariest predictions came to fruition (and none have EVER done so) and the SNP split.
We could have a pro-business independence party and a social democrat independence party, splitting constituencies on the basis of “best placed”.
How would the Brit Nats react to that scenario? It would probably bring independence quicker, seeing two sides of the same independence coin: two seats at the Leaders debates: two pro-indy parties facing two pro-Westminsterl parties.
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Gavin, You make a good point about the possible result of a split. Most political parties have policy overlaps with other parties and, if the pro-business. social democrat parties emerged following a split, but both retained a pro-independence strand, then both would find common ground in a single issue referendum campaign. We say this in 2014 when Tories/Labour and LibDems combined in favour of the union.
Such a split – or any other – is likely after any successful independence campaign anyway as Scotland would be a pluralist democracy.
There might indeed, be a boost to independence support if, for example, some pro-business individuals could vote for a particular party which does not espouse the, say, social democratic views advanced by Nicola Sturgeon, which are disagreeable to such people. In the same way, people who find Mr Andrew Welsh’s views on the economy post independence could join a pro-independence socialist/social democratic/green party.
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