Latest Poll puts SNP’s Westminster gains up 31% and, also, estimates 24% of Labour voters are pro-Independence

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The last Panelbase Poll reported on the 17th September on Westminster voting intentions. It  put the SNP up 10% to 41 seats. See:

Latest poll of Westminster voting intentions suggests SNP are recovering from temporary effects of Corbyn and Davidson with 10% increase

Yesterday, a week later, Survation have them up to from 35 to 46 seats, a 31% increase. I think we can now safely answer Common Space’s question ‘Is the independence movement in retreat or re-bounding?’. See:

C’mon Common Space; which is it? Is the independence movement ‘in retreat’ or ‘re-bounding?’ Gonnae stop this inward-looking rumination and get on with attacking the Union?

I wrote the above on the 21st, mystified by one Common Space writer’s apparent confusion given that the last Survation poll had support for independence clearly rebounding from 40% to  46%. Remember, only Survation correctly predicted the last General Election result.

Based on current polling, Survation suggest that even a small swing to the SNP would mean Labour would lose Glasgow North East, Rutherglen and Hamilton, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Midlothian to the SNP. The Conservatives would also lose Stirling and Gordon.

Survation put their poll’s boost for the SNP largely down to Nicola Sturgeon’s pro-remain stance which is improving the party’s prospects. I suspect Ruth’s disappearance and the Labour leadership shambles are playing a part too.

Finally, with regard to independence the outcome of the Scottish Labour leadership contest seems likely to push those 24% pro-independence supporters in the Labour party firmly into the Yes camp for the next referendum.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/survation-snp-labour_uk_59c944e4e4b01cc57ff47d51

Footnote: Why is Alex Rowley not standing for Labour leader? Much more appealing to working-class Scots voters for or thinking about Yes support?

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12 thoughts on “Latest Poll puts SNP’s Westminster gains up 31% and, also, estimates 24% of Labour voters are pro-Independence

  1. Bugger (the Panda) September 26, 2017 / 9:07 am

    John I estimate an 11 seat gain, from 35 to 46 is a 31% increase, not 24%

    Like

  2. johnrobertson834 September 26, 2017 / 9:38 am

    Me make an arithmetical mistake? Surely not? Thanks. I’ll edit it.

    Like

  3. remo fantini September 26, 2017 / 9:48 am

    It will be more than that next time it comes up good on the SNP as for the torys they will loss all there sits in Scotland

    Liked by 1 person

  4. John September 26, 2017 / 9:52 am

    Alex Rowley John ? he would need a charisma transplant ! , mind you , Corbyn managed it . Rowley was speaking from the conference on Sunday and was asked about independence from Gordon Brewer a few times , he would not commit at all , saying he thought we were better in the UK .I do not think he meant it at all when he said we should be allowed another independece vote , it was just Labour trying to pinch yes votes .

    Like

    • johnrobertson834 September 26, 2017 / 10:01 am

      He once said he had never considered himself a Unionist. As for Charisma, the Thick Prince and a Kenneth Williams lookalike?

      Liked by 2 people

  5. Alasdair Macdonald September 26, 2017 / 8:39 pm

    We have not been hearing very much of the Colonel recently. She is obviously still around, because we saw her at FMQ and her cheerleaders in the New Statesman and Guardian are still writing approvingly and we had a leak from a new book that several people like Amber Rudd asked her to stand against ‘Strong and Stable’, but she, modestly, declined.

    Is she being coached and rehearsed for a ‘barnstormer’ at the Tory Conference, when, possibly, the defenestration of the honourable member for Maidenhead might happen or, at least, the window will be opened?

    Like

    • johnrobertson834 September 27, 2017 / 6:36 am

      That’d be worth watching. We haven’t had a good defenestration since Vienna in the 30s. Theresa already looks as if she’s had a fall.

      Like

      • Alasdair Macdonald September 27, 2017 / 8:09 am

        Here’s the scenario. The strain of working indefatigably for ‘the best possible deal’ has knocked ‘Strong and Stable’s’ diabetes out of balance and despite the pleas of her doctor, she had insisted on working on – 24 hours a day – but, she is human like the rest of us and her body has said, “No More.” So she resigns not just from PM but also from Parliament with immediate effect. A bye-election is held within the month, with a rapidly adopted candidate – THE COLONEL!

        When Parliament resumes, she is appointed, by acclamation, as PM. The Queen orders a week of celebration. Bells (except Big Ben) are rung all over London and up and down the country. Jeremy Corbyn resigns. The New Statesman and Guardian bring out souvenir editions. Kick boxing becomes the must-do activity of the beautiful people. The EU immediately concedes every demand. Donald Trump and President Erdogan make state visits.

        I am going out now. I am told it will do me good.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Bugger (the Panda) September 27, 2017 / 10:50 am

        Jeeeezzzz

        Might be more truth to that than earlier the day.

        Surely only as a stalking horse

        Like

  6. Bugger (the Panda) September 27, 2017 / 8:32 am

    You are mad as a Hatter but, we are way down Alice’s rabbit hole for it to be impossible.

    I’m going out

    Liked by 1 person

  7. johnrobertson834 September 27, 2017 / 8:43 am

    And, Jacob Rees Mogg seduces her with a view to becoming Mrs PM?

    Like

  8. Ludo Thierry September 27, 2017 / 9:15 am

    His nanny would never permit such a thing!

    Ludo

    Like

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