The last Panelbase Poll reported on the 17th September on Westminster voting intentions. It put the SNP up 10% to 41 seats. See:
Yesterday, a week later, Survation have them up to from 35 to 46 seats, a 31% increase. I think we can now safely answer Common Space’s question ‘Is the independence movement in retreat or re-bounding?’. See:
I wrote the above on the 21st, mystified by one Common Space writer’s apparent confusion given that the last Survation poll had support for independence clearly rebounding from 40% to 46%. Remember, only Survation correctly predicted the last General Election result.
Based on current polling, Survation suggest that even a small swing to the SNP would mean Labour would lose Glasgow North East, Rutherglen and Hamilton, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Midlothian to the SNP. The Conservatives would also lose Stirling and Gordon.
Survation put their poll’s boost for the SNP largely down to Nicola Sturgeon’s pro-remain stance which is improving the party’s prospects. I suspect Ruth’s disappearance and the Labour leadership shambles are playing a part too.
Finally, with regard to independence the outcome of the Scottish Labour leadership contest seems likely to push those 24% pro-independence supporters in the Labour party firmly into the Yes camp for the next referendum.
Footnote: Why is Alex Rowley not standing for Labour leader? Much more appealing to working-class Scots voters for or thinking about Yes support?