Talking-up Scotland

© bbc.co.uk

Dr Saleyha Ahsan, the star of BBC’s investigative medical series Trust Me, I’m a Doctor, has told the Kirkcaldy Courier on the 4^th March that she had to move to Wales to get away from Westminster Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt.

She praised the leadership of NHS Scotland and said there was a different culture and mentality in the Scottish system. She wants to work here because:

1. Scotland, she said, has a far more innovative and collaborative approach to healthcare.
2. Our hospitals use a digital early-warning systems and critically acclaimed work to screen for frailty when patients are admitted.
3. There is collaboration between different sections of the NHS here, whereas it’s more disjointed in England with people working in isolation.
4. There are morning huddles so people in A&E and the rest of the hospital can look at managing beds and discharging people so the staff in A&E have beds to put patients into.
5. It’s a whole hospital approach.

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/fife/380903/tv-doctor-returns-to-kirkcaldy-for-insight-into-hospital-innovation/

I’ve been banging away for years now revealing hard evidence of the better performance of NHS Scotland. To see them all go to ‘Talking-up Scotland’ and just search for NHS. There are dozens.

Here are the most recent (ctrl click to open them) and one of the most comprehensive if a little dated now:

More of the SNP Government’s planned actions in 2016 and early 2017 to make sure that NHS Scotland succeed in 2017 and beyond and good news somehow sneaks onto Good Mourning Scotland

 NHS Health Check: Which part of the UK is doing the best?

Update: Is BBC Reporting Scotland’s ‘Weaponising’ of NHS Scotland likely to actually increase both physical and mental health problems?

 NHS Scotland, bucking the UK trend despite media attacks

© Reuters

I wrote on 2^nd March:

SNP Cabinet Secretary applauded for his help as Scotland’s BSE risk now likely to be graded ‘negligible’ at least three years before England and Wales

Yesterday, we heard from The Scottish Farmer:

‘Four years on since testing for Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) became mandatory in Scotland’s breeding cattle herds the number of incidents of BVD infection and indeed positive herds is well and truly on the wane.’

I did wonder about putting the word ‘diarrhoea’ in a title. I thought it might repel some readers. Putting ‘Theresa May’ there draws them in by the thousands.  It turns out I’ve confused (age) the two BVDs so my sincere apologies to Theresa. I do however have an independent, well Independent, scientific assessment for Theresa’s other BVD. Her BVD score is a very high 25.

From the Independent newspaper on 2^nd March, we read:

‘Theresa May Scottish Speech: 25 different attacks on Scottish Independence that could just as easily be about Brexit’

If you read the article you’ll see it’s a very bad case of BVD.

Seriously though:

‘The virus, which causes a complex range of diseases resulting in poor reproductive performance, with more barren cows; abortions and the birth of deformed calves or calves with increased susceptibility to other infectious disease, can have huge repercussions in both beef and dairy herds. Introduction of the disease to herds for the first time can have devastating effects on the health of young calves, with a significant increase in treatments for disease and reduced survival. The good news is, 89.6% of breeding holdings in Scotland now boast a negative BVD status. Our BVD control programme is creating real benefits for the vast majority of our herds and the push is now on to finish the job and make Scotland the first country free of BVD within the British Isles.’

Readers might like to know that nearly all the cases are now in the South-West of Scotland. Now, the first case of BSE was in England and the most recent was in Wales. Those with at least some spatial awareness will know South-West Scotland is the closest of our regions to England & Wales. I’m just saying.

http://www.thescottishfarmer.co.uk/business_sales/15134627.BVD_on_the_wane_in_cattle_herds/

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/25-theresa-may-attacks-on-scottish-independence-that-could-just-as-easily-be-about-brexit-a7610051.html

© mirror.co.uk  

‘There is much that the Scottish Government is doing to reduce the impact of poverty and inequality and there is much in Scotland that can be celebrated and learned from.’

 This is a quote from the UK Royal College of Paediatrics and Health (RCPCH) in January 2017 at: http://www.rcpch.ac.uk/state-of-child-health/report-in-a-glance . I wrote a longer piece on the wider issues at:

 https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/01/26/once-more-bbc-scotland-reports-selectively-lies-to-damage-scotlands-reputation-by-missing-the-obvious-headline-already-written-for-them-there-is-much-that-the-scottish-government/

 Since then we’ve had the visit from the PM to lecture us on a range of matters in which she has proven herself utterly incompetent in England. The SNP have, wisely, remained above comment and, yesterday, acted to mitigate the effects of the Tory Government’s further attacks on the poor and to further justify the praise of the RCPCH. The press release is so strongly worded, unlike the recent weaker release on the state of the economy, that I’ve just listed its main elements below:

 ‘£58 million to combat UK Government’s welfare cuts.

Almost £58 million will be spent mitigating the harmful impact of the UK Government’s welfare cuts on households across Scotland.

The £7.7 million increase in funding for Discretionary Housing Payments (DHPs) next year comes as the Scottish Government takes full responsibility for DHP funding, including £18.5 million transferred from the Department of Work and Pensions as part of a negotiated 3 year settlement.

The £57.9 million made available to local authorities will be split as follows:

• £47 million to fully mitigate the bedroom tax for more than 70,000 households – up from £45.4 million.
• £10.9 million, up from £4.8 million, to help mitigate other UK Government policies such as the Benefit Cap and Local Housing Allowance rates.

 Social Security Minister Jeane Freeman has written to all local authorities confirming their funding for the coming year. She said:

“We realise how damaging the UK Government’s punitive policies are, particularly the bedroom tax. That is why we have taken action to ensure DHPs are available to all affected households so no one has to pay it and we are committed to abolishing it as soon as practically possible.”

“We want to protect low income families and households across Scotland which is why we have increased the funding available in the first year we have had full responsibility for Discretionary House Payments. However we would much rather be using this money to positively lift people out of poverty.

“It is abundantly clear the approach the UK Government is taking to welfare is causing real damage and pushing people into poverty. We will continue to stand up for families across Scotland fight any further damaging UK welfare changes.”

The press release also reminds us that, since 2013, 321 000 DHP awards have been made.

http://news.gov.scot/news/bedroom-tax-mitigation

That the vast majority of Scottish people, minus the handful listening to Theresa at the conference, are right behind the SNP’s progressive policies has already been demonstrated in a research survey for the House of Commons which said:

‘An independent Scotland would be able to use a wider set of fiscal levers – taxes and benefits – to address inequality concerns. But would the Scottish electorate support greater progressivity? Scots are more likely than English voters to think the gap between high and low incomes is too large (78% v. 74%); are more likely to support government efforts at redistribution (43% v. 34%); are more likely to say that social benefits are not high enough (6.2% v. 3.6%); and more likely to say that unemployment benefits are too low and cause hardship (22% v. 18%). (23)

‘State of the Nation’: Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, presented to House of Commons December 2015 at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/485926/State_of_the_nation_2015__social_mobility_and_child_poverty_in_Great_Britain.pdf

frac sand on the right (c) http://geology.com

You’ll know from previous posts that there is good reason to be optimistic about Scotland’s renewables and about its oil and gas sector. However, some argue that a shale oil boom, especially in the USA, will hold down the price of other oils and prevent a recovery. It won’t. First there’s this from February 2017:

‘Shale’s best days are coming to an end. U.S. shale oil production, which reshaped the global energy equation, will begin to wane in less than a decade as reserves are drawn down and well output decreases, the Energy Department reported.’

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Shale-s-best-days-are-coming-to-an-end-10942307.php

But, that’s not the really bad news for shale oil production; it’s sand or to be precise, not enough sand.  You might know that desert sand is useless for construction. Dubai was built with imported sand! You might also know that fracking requires vast quantities of ‘frac sand’ to be pumped along with other materials into wells to break up shale rock and produce oil. Fracking needs a small uniform round form of sand that is not common, is rarely found anywhere near the oil basins, and it’s running out fast. Already, costs are climbing to levels that could easily send fracking from boom to bust even before the oil runs out:

‘I think people are looking at the potential demand numbers, and, for the first time, people are scared that there will not be enough sand to meet the demand…… The increased demand will push sand prices up by 60 percent, hitting the $40 per ton range over the next 18 months…..the real concern is the logistical challenges that come with moving high volumes of sand. Some producers are using a unit train – roughly 75 or more rail cars in a line – on each well…that presents some significant logistical challenges that could hamper production.’

http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-forecasts-sand-demand-growth-2014-9?IR=T

In addition to all of the above, we haven’t even considered the catastrophic damage thousands of wells and now thousands of frac sand quarries are already doing and will do to the landscape.

 

© qmeb.com.au

Scotland’s Chief Economist Dr Gary Gillespie has published latest State of the Economy report. The gov.scot news summary summarising it is positively headlined: ‘Economy outlook positive.’ Bizarrely it then opens timidly with: ‘Growth forecasted but consumer sentiment remains negative following EU Referendum’ and selects a mix of some good news, some hesitancy and frankly gifts to critics. Maybe it’s partly due to having to make choices to shorten the text but the choices are civil service bland. Below, I’ll list the Government phrases and insert what I think are justifiably more confident excerpts from the report and/or my reading of them. Remember, I’m still recovering from depression!

The Scottish Government (SG) statements are below in plain text with the reports actual wording and some information from elsewhere, matched in most cases, in italics, with a bit of emboldening from me:

Forecasts for the Scottish economy remain positive with Scottish Government growth forecasts of 1% and 1.3% in 2016/17 and 2017/18

The Scottish economy continued to grow during the second half of 2016, with GDP rising and unemployment falling over the year; reflecting in part the strong fundamentals of Scotland’s economy.

The Scottish labour market has remained resilient with the unemployment rate falling over the past year

The labour market has also remained resilient with employment and unemployment rates continuing to outperform their long run averages, despite the external challenges that have impacted the economy over this period.

Scottish productivity has continued to grow and has now closed the gap with UK levels

As outlined in this report, Scottish productivity has grown strongly in recent years, with the historic gap in productivity performance between Scotland and the UK as a whole now closed. Our analysis shows this has contributed more to Scottish growth whilst UK growth has been driven more strongly by population growth.

Following the EU referendum growth rates remain below trend

Since the EU referendum, the Scottish Government’s Consumer Sentiment Indicator has fallen to its lowest levels since the survey began in 2013.

There are then three paragraphs in the report bemoaning the effects of Brexit on the Scottish economy. Though no doubt true, I’m not sure this issue is a strong card for the Yes movement and worthy of such space in the press release. Far too many people voted to leave the EU in Scotland. I voted ‘remain’ myself while holding my nose tightly. Strategically, I think in a release about the strength of the Scottish economy, we should say little about this divisive issue, stop saying ‘weaker’ and say more about the good news. There has been a lot recently about, for example, the world’s biggest marine turbine drive off Dounreay or about the massive investment in Lochaber. This and more can be found at: http://www.scoop.it/t/talking-up-scotland

The outlook for the oil and gas industry may improve through 2017

This is terribly tentative even timid. There’s a lot of clear evidence to get rid of that ‘may’ (too). The industry itself is investing again and the hedge funds are piling in like a gang of bookies who know the oil price is likely to recover. Even the Scottish Government itself is investing in development wisely. You can find the hard evidence here:

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/14/north-sea-oil-and-gas-is-on-the-crest-of-a-third-wave-and-the-snp-government-is-already-supporting-plans-for-it/

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/26/global-demand-for-oil-could-outdo-the-10-year-average-in-2017-why-the-snp-government-the-sector-and-hedge-funds-are-all-optimistic/

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/23/hedge-funds-bet-big-on-oil/

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/03/03/scottish-oil-getting-back-to-growth-bp-announces-2-new-projects-now-under-construction-and-coming-online-this-year-with-a-further-3-entering-the-final-investment-decision-stage/

The rest of the SG release is a perfectly fair but strangely modest text. I’ll leave you to read it if you wish. The only up-for-it bit (already touched on above), applauding Scotland viz-a-viz the UK is at the end:

‘In looking at the contributions to GDP growth in Scotland and the UK since 2007, productivity growth has made a larger contribution to GDP growth in Scotland, while population growth has been the key driver of overall GDP growth in the UK.’

See what that means? Scotland’s GDP growth is based on a real increase in productivity not just more people consuming.

Is this what happens to campaigning movements when they’ve been governments for some time and especially if their campaign ideals seem to be initially thwarted? They become good at day-to-day government but lose a little of the fire? That press release looks more like an attempt to seem mature, balanced and sensible than an attempt to fight a cause.

http://news.gov.scot/news/economy-outlook-positive

There’s a link to the full report in the press release above.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/forget-independence-and-settle-down-to-eternity-of-rule-by-english-twats-may-tells-snp-20170303123294

 

 

In 2013, Scotland became only the second country in the World, after Wales, to achieve Fair Trade Nation status. There has been a 43% in consumers reporting fair trade purchases and 30% increase in the number of Scottish towns achieving Fair Trade status according to WIREDGOV on 2^nd March. The total is now 65. There are only 54 ‘localities’ or ‘cities’ and ‘towns’, in Scotland with 15 000 or more inhabitants so does that mean all of them plus a few wee ones?

At the level of local authorities, 75% now have Fair Trade status. My local town, Ayr, seems to have the status but I can see no evidence the Tory/Labour coven running the whole of South Ayrshire has done so. However, only 70% of Higher Education Institutions do. I thought students were keen on this kind of thing? The Director of the Scottish Fair Trade Forum said:

‘Having Scotland’s Fair Trade Nation status affirmed once more shows that Fair Trade campaigners across Scotland have continued to work tirelessly to consolidate on past achievements and make further progress towards ensuring support for Fair Trade continues to grow.’

100% of Welsh cities and 55% of Welsh towns have Fair Trade status.  There are 6 cities and 20 ‘boroughs’ in Wales, comparable in size to a Scottish ‘town.’

So, anyhoo, looks like we’re even more Fair Trade than Wales, with England not having achieved such status yet. Let’s see, Scotland and Wales have sort of left-of-centre administrations and England has the Tories. Don’t Tories like Fair Trade? They like church fairs. Here’s what the Daily Torygraph headlined about it:

Fair trade is neither fair nor good for trade

 I’m not reading it. I had this argument with a colleague a few years back. He’d just failed selection as a Labour candidate and had suddenly become a Tory.

http://www.wired-gov.net/wg/news.nsf/articles/Fair+Trade+Nation+02032017110500?open

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_towns_and_cities_in_Scotland_by_population

http://fairtradewales.com/fair-trade-nation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_towns_in_Wales

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8353361/Fair-trade-is-neither-fair-nor-good-for-trade.html

© Mark Runnacles/Getty Speaking to a tiny audience at the Scottish Conservative Party Conference, the PM made it clear that Scotland, unlike others, will get nothing, may even lose something, from Brexit and that if it doesn’t like it then it should have the guts to go for independence. Most insulting of all, she’s sure we don’t have the guts to do so.

The Scottish Government has long since submitted an options paper for keeping Scotland in the single market. May has treated it with contempt despite clearly having no serious plan herself, leading a divided party and responsible for a government which cannot manage its NHS or social services in a manner remotely comparable to the competence of the Scottish Government.

Here are May’s real priorities:

The City of London 

This is number one on the list. Panicked by losing banks to Europe, May will offer to pay huge funds into the EU to allow the London-based banks to carry on as before dealing in Europe without any financial or other constraints.

 Reversing Devolution

 The Tories in England have never liked devolution. We saw the mask drop after the Independence Referendum in 2014 when all the pleas for Scotland to stay were forgotten as they desperately sought to fight off UKIP with English Votes for English Laws or as it really was, English Laws for English Votes. The first sign of Brexit leading to less autonomy for Scotland can already be seen in the strong signs that the Tories want to claw-back control of farming subsidies to Westminster. Second it seems very likely that they will betray the Scottish fishing industry and use it as a ‘bargaining chip’. More detail on this below.

 Car Manufacturing in England

 It seems almost certain that Nissan has been offered some deal whereby in can still profitably sell cars to the EU. Whether the EU agrees to some kind of tariff op-out for them or the UK compensates them in some way, this will inevitably trigger a queue of other businesses looking for the same. Scottish businesses need not apply.

 Gibraltar

Tiny Gibraltar (30 000 and 1 in 2012) will matter more than Scotland as May does a deal with the Spanish government to keep freedom of movement for which 96% of them voted. The Spanish want joint sovereignty. Let’s see how far she will go on this while still threatening Scotland with a hard border and punishing trade deals if we choose independence.

 Ireland

 As with Gibraltar, both parts of Ireland desperately want to hang on to the soft border for economic reasons and to prevent any return to the horrors of the past. Westminster equally wants the same thing yet, as above, will not offer a devolved Scotland the same to allow it to protect or boost its economy with a different deal on freedom of movement and thus trade with the EU.

Here’s more on a possible deal on fishing. Fishing only accounts for 0.5% of UK GDP. Scottish landings at 62% of the total, worth £775 000, are twice that of England. The fishing industry has been told Brexit will be good for them. They were encouraged to vote for it but they have been betrayed before, in 1972, when access to the EEC allowed massive access to formerly Scottish waters by boats from European ports. This story is all over the media.

http://www.scotsman.com/business/companies/farming/scottish-fishing-industry-could-be-brexit-bargaining-chip-1-4307516

Regarding a devolution reversing power grab for farm subsidies and other agricultural matters, Ruth Davidson has already said that some powers over agriculture would be better set at a UK level.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scots-feel-betrayed-after-brexit-9863357

So, the PM seems sure she can do as she likes with Scotland because the polls say we are afraid to leave. Remember, however, she and most commentators are relying on the landline telephone-call, data collection polls which suggest little growth in the Yes vote but these are unreliable as they were for Brexit. The recent BMG online poll made it 49% for Yes. That look s like she doesn’t really know how strong her hand is. I’ve explained before why online polls are more accurate at:

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/08/why-the-49-supporting-independence-in-todays-bmg-poll-may-be-more-accurate-and-much-more-optimistic-than-other-recent-polls-suggesting-a-wider-gap/

And, we haven’t even started campaigning yet.

© thehighlandtimes.com

From the news.gov.scot site today, I proclaim (J) the above headline unbeatable though ‘Sunshine on Carn Liath’ will also make some sense to locals and climbers.

The Lochaber Delivery Group met for the first time today to begin the process of helping the GFG Alliance (Liberty House and SIMEC) make the most of their total £450 million investment in the area subsequent to buying the Fort William aluminium complex and estate lands from Rio Tinto in a £330 million deal in December.

You’ll remember that Liberty House have already worked with the Scottish Government to save the steel plants at Dalzell and Clydebridge. The plans are to revitalise (already underway) the smelter to manufacture car parts, to do the same for nearby hydro plants (£120 million), to maximise cost savings in that manufacture and, along with two bio-fuel plants, to create a state-of-the-art facility which will add 1 000 direct and 1 000 indirect jobs in the area and a predicted £1 billion addition to the local economy. Unemployment in the Fort William area is generally well under (2.9%) the overall Scottish rate (4.9%) but I’m sure it would be a very popular place to relocate to.

This will be the UK’s last aluminium smelter putting it in a very good place to compete to produce car parts for the wider UK and European car manufacturers. Of course India’s car ownership growth is the fastest in the world at 7.64% or 2.54 million vehicles in 2016 and is expected to grow by 775% to 2040! Who owns the Lochaber mill? It’s a Mr Gupta. Now where does that name originate?

GFG Alliance (Liberty/SIMEC) Executive Chairman Sanjeev Gupta said:

‘One of the key reasons we invested in the Highlands was because people welcomed us here. That’s been reinforced by the positive response of the many agencies in the new Lochaber Delivery Group who are eager to play their part in delivering the goal of a clean, competitive and sustainable manufacturing sector in the Highlands.’

http://news.gov.scot/news/lochaber-once-more

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/bulpIdEod7tk9HTftdo9bL/At-764-growth-India-fastest-growing-passenger-car-market.html

http://auto.ndtv.com/news/indias-passenger-car-ownership-to-grow-775-per-cent-by-2040-study-1425954

© Rockstar Games

I’ve written recently about new technologies booming in Scotland in terms of becoming a robotics hub, of St Andrews University developing a ‘global domination accelerator (!) and of Dundee become a ‘Top Technology City’ at:

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/21/why-your-first-robot-might-speak-with-a-scottish-accent/

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/18/teckle-dundee-good-news-special/

Now a FB friend (another Robertson!) has alerted me to this:

‘Number of Scottish games firms grows 600% in five years’

 Develop on February 19^th headlined the above dramatic figure and wrote:

‘The British home of Grand Theft Auto, Scotland, has been praised for its recent ‘exceptional’ growth in games by the Scottish National Party. The latest year where games revenue was recorded was 2013, when turnover totalled £67.6 million – a leap of nearly £30 million on the £38.1 million stat noted in 2010.’

There are now a 100 computer games firms in Scotland when there were only 15 as recently as 2010. Of these, 95 are registered in Scotland. The SNP funded 40 post-graduate games places on a course at Abertay University and lobbied for tax relief for the sector.

According to Develop, Grand Theft Auto V, produced in Scotland is the ‘fastest selling entertainment product of all time.’ Within three days of its release it had passed the figure of $1 billion dollars in sales. That’s just three days and one product. I can’t find out just how much of that goes toward Scottish GDP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V#Commercial_performance

 http://www.develop-online.net/news/number-of-scottish-games-firms-grows-600-in-five-years/0216866