Talking-up Scotland

Opposition politicians and media commentators have been keen to suggest that the SNP has failed in its education policies. Spurious data from, for example, PISA results, have been used. You might remember ‘Brian Monteith: ‘Education failure’ will be the Nationalist epitaph’ or Theresa May’s accusations at PM’s Questions but from the BBC today:

Progress to close the achievement gap for poorer pupils in England’s secondary schools is almost at a “standstill”, say researchers.

“For the first time in several years, the gap between poorer pupils and their peers at GCSE has stopped closing,” says report author Jo Hutchinson.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49150993

In sharp contrast, we were able to report on real progress in narrowing the gap in Scotland’s schools, in February 2019:

‘94.4% of pupils had a ’positive destination’ including work, training or further study within three months of leaving school last year, official statistics show. The figures also reveal that the gap between those from the most and least deprived communities achieving a positive destination has halved since 2009/10, with an increase in positive destinations for school leavers, from both backgrounds. Over the same period there have been increases at all levels of attainment – the qualifications young people are achieving. For the first time more than 30% of pupils left school with a minimum of five passes at Higher Level or better, up from 22.2% in 2009/10. The gap between those from the most and least deprived areas achieving a pass at Higher Level or better is now at a record low, reducing for the eighth successive year.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/record-high-for-school-leavers-in-positive-destinations

Why PISA results are not useful:

Forget PISA’s tiny unreliable samples: Scotland has the best school attainment outcomes in the UK because it has the most teachers per pupil

Scotland’s school’s PISA results ‘lean’ toward nothing meaningful. Finland’s success is not real. South Korea and China’s educational programmes amount to child abuse

From YouGov based on a sample of 146 and fieldwork between 25^th and 26^Th July and from Opinium with 115 respondents on 24^th to 26^th July.

Party                     YouGov                Opinium

Con                        21                           23

Lab                         11                           14

LibDem                 12                           11

SNP                        47                           46

Green                    3                              2

Brexit                    5                              5

Click to access SundayTimes_190726_VI_Boris_Brexit_w.pdf

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/The

The last four polls* had the SNP averaging 45.5% so these two seem to confirm a powerful solidity to their base prior to any campaigning and reveal the ineffective nature of all opposition/media attempts to weaken it.

Both also suggest a recovery of Con support as Brexit lose a bit of edge to a Boris Johnson win and as the Con support in Scotland seems to care little for what Ruth thinks. Much will depend on what Johnson does if it’s to last.

Though there has bee a Lib Dem surge in London and the South, it has not appeared in the North or in Scotland where it looks like returning them to 4^th place. Swinson seems to have had no impact.

As for Johnson popularity, YouGov show him to be considered negatively at 71% in Scotland and far more so than in other parts.

*I’ve ignored the ComRes poll with SNP support at 38% as an outlier in the context of around 20 sub-polls this year putting support we above 40%

LUDO THIERRY

(Nearly missed this one!)

Heavens above – I’ve just seen that dear auld (Baroness) Annabel Goldie has been promoted (resurrected??) from acting as a tory whip in the H o L to one of the ministers at the Ministry of War. Will this mean that her former head prefect at the ‘Scottish’ tories Col. Davidson will finally be awarded her Territorial Decoration at long last?

Annabel must be loving it – She’ll be remembering when her 2nd conference as ‘Scottish’ tory leader in 2007 was (from wicki) “.. overshadowed by a leaked memo by David Mundell, the only Scottish Conservative MP in the British House of Commons, and Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, in which he criticised Goldie’s leadership.” What is it the Italians tell us about revenge being a sweeter dish when served cold?

The ‘Welsh’ tories seem to act wi’ a tad mair dignity – The Baron Bourne (Nick Bourne as was – who led the tories in the National Assembly of Wales for some years) was also offered a job by Boris the Last – but , unlike The Baroness Goldie, Nick Bourne retained sufficient self-respect and attachment to the European Ideal to tell the blond mop-top that he could take his job and shove it where the sun still don’t shine. Link and snippets below:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49125691?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics&link_location=live-reporting-story

Nick Bourne has resigned from Boris Johnson’s government in protest at the prospect of a no-deal Brexit.

Lord Bourne, who had been a minister at the Wales Office and at the Housing Communities and Local Government department, said he had been asked to continue in both roles.

He said it is the first time he has resigned “in his life”.

Lord Bourne was leader of the Conservatives in the assembly between 1999-2011.

He tweeted: “I have resigned for the first time in my life and it is from a job which I really love and enjoy and which I had just been offered once more”.
“But I cannot accept a no deal on 31 October and so I go,” he added.

PS – Anybody else remember hearing a load of guff from beeb Scotland (and many others) regarding the Rt. Hon. Col. Davidson MSP, PC, BBC (and, doubtless soon to be TD – “grazia Annabel”) having a standing invite to attend the Westminster Cabinet? – Seems like Johnson was utterly unaware of this as no sign of Col. Davidson at the photo-fest of King BoJo’s first cabinet. Further evidence of The Col’s rapid and escalating fall fae grace perchance?

Thanks to a parliamentary question by Annie Wells (SCAUP) we can reveal that most NHS Scotland boards have their full complement of neurology consultants.

NHS Board Neurology consultant vacancies (WTE) as at March 2019

1. NHS Borders 0.0
2. NHS Fife 1.0
3. NHS Lothian 0.0
4. NHS Highland 0.0
5. NHS Grampian 0.0
6. NHS Orkney 0.0
7. NHS Tayside 0.0
8. NHS Western Isles 0.0
9. NHS Shetland 0.0
10. NHS Ayrshire and Arran 1.8
11. NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde 4.0
12. NHS Lanarkshire 0.0
13. NHS Forth Valley 1.0
14. NHS Dumfries and Galloway 1.0

Source: ISD Scotland, Medical and Dental dashboard https://www.isdscotland.org/HealthTopics/Workforce/Publications/2019-06-04/Medical-and-Dental.asp .

Thanks to a parliamentary question from Bill Kidd (SNP) we can reveal that the number of modern apprentice-ship starts has increased from 10 579 in 2008/9 to 28 191 in 2018/19.

Click to access WA20190726.pdf

Thanks, once more to a parliamentary question from Miles Briggs (SCAUP), we can reveal that convictions for violence and/or aggression toward NHS Scotland staff have fallen from 301 in 2008/9 to 190 in 2017/18.

NHS Scotland has 160 000 staff so convictions are at 0.11875%.

Click to access WA20190726.pdf

Thanks, once more to a parliamentary question from Miles Briggs (SCAUP), we can reveal that the number of old age hospital beds has been reduced from 2 823 in 2008/09 to 1 774 in 2017/18. Typically, around 90% of these were used for dementia cases.

According to the SNP Government:

The trends are in line with broader Scottish Government policies, including the three National Dementia Strategies and the integration of health and social care, to shift the balance of care, strengthen integrated community care and enable more people with dementia to live a good quality of life at home or in a homely environment for longer.

Click to access WA20190725.pdf

Scotland’s decision to classify energy efficiency as a national infrastructure priority and spending four times as much as the Tories at Westminster on household energy efficiency – the highest average annual per capita investment in the UK. By marking it as infrastructure priority, the SNP Scottish Government has embedded efficiency as a structural long-term benefit.

From Parliamentary Paper: Delivering Residential Energy Efficiency:

The figures demonstrate that the current rate of renovation in the UK needs to increase by around 7 times. Behind this headline figure lies a variance between the increase in energy efficiency renovation needed in England compared to the devolved nations. For example, in England the rate needs to increase by a factor of 9, compared to a factor of 2.5 in Scotland. The Government appears indifferent towards how public per capita spend in household energy efficiency in England compares to other parts of the UK. We note that Scotland’s investment of four times more than England cannot be explained by a less efficient dwelling stock: the latest housing survey data demonstrates that homes in Scotland actually have greater insulation levels than in England. For example, in 2017, 49 per cent of homes in England had insulated walls, compared to 60 per cent of homes in Scotland.97 For homes with lofts, 43 per cent in England were properly insulated (200mm or more) compared to 63 per cent in Scotland. The disparity in per capita spending suggests that the governments of the devolved nations treat energy efficiency as a much higher priority than the UK Government.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/1730/173005.htm#_idTextAnchor026

I know, size isn’t everything, but I thought readers might be interested in seeing which reports drew the biggest crowds ever, so to speak. Use this link to get them:

https://wordpress.com/stats/day/posts/thoughtcontrolscotland.com?startDate=2019-07-25&summarize=1&num=365

You’ll need to click on the eye icon top-right to open them. If it doesn’t work for some techy reason, use the big Q and type in the title or enough of it.

I know, size isn’t everything, but I thought readers might be interested in seeing which 2019 reports drew the crowds, so to speak. Use this link to get them:

https://wordpress.com/stats/day/posts/thoughtcontrolscotland.com?startDate=2019-07-25&summarize=1&num=365

You’ll need to click on the eye icon top-right to open them. If it doesn’t work for some techy reason, use the big Q and type in the title or enough of it.