LATEST: SNP solid at 42% Tories scary at 30% and Labour deid at 15%


After a long period with the sub-polls reporting SNP support steady at 41%, clearly unaffected by the ‘SNP Civil War’ following ‘Salmondgate’, we’ve had a run of 6 sub-polls with 5 suggesting SNP support at 45% to 50% and one back at 41%. Sub-polls are unreliable but with more than 700 people sampled in these collectively, they begin to reasonably suggest a surge.

Now from BMG, online, based on the period 2nd – 5th April, we get:

Conservative      30%

Labour                  15%

Lib Dem                2%

UKIP                      7%

SNP                        42%

Across the 7 sub-polls from Ipsos MORI on 15th to 19th March, we have a healthy average of 46.14%, enough to wipe the board.

While the final throes of Labour are clear, the mini-surge for the Tories is to be regretted. I cannot believe that 3 in 10 Scots are Tories, yet…..



9 thoughts on “LATEST: SNP solid at 42% Tories scary at 30% and Labour deid at 15%

  1. Jim Coll April 7, 2019 / 6:09 pm

    The decrease in Labour and Liberal voting intentions surely adds up to their return to their natural fold, so Tories up. UKIP up?

    Liked by 1 person

  2. gavin April 7, 2019 / 6:36 pm

    Cannot reconcile the support this poll states the Tories have in England with a substantial lead over Labour, with both other polling stats and my gut feeling.
    In Scotland you could argue that the Tories enjoy the entirety of Leave voters with the rest split, mostly with the SNP. Given the disgraceful bias of the “Scottish” media, that might be plausible, but I just don’t find it to be credible.

    It might just be wishful thinking, but I am relishing the return of “Ruthie”. I think her brand of bluster will have passed its sell by date. After all the Brexit rubbish people want proper answers, not sloganising. Or hero worshiping Treeza and her “balls of steel”!

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Terry callachan April 7, 2019 / 7:32 pm

    Correct one in three Scots are not tories
    Nearly all the English people living in Scotland will vote for any party at all as long as it’s not supporting Scottish independence they want their own country England to continue controlling Scotland and they will shift from one party to another to oppose Scottish independence.

    They have noticed that Labour is going down the drain so all those English people living in Scotland who used to vote labour have now switched to Tory because they see them as the strongest opposition to Scottish independence .

    Those labour voters who are Scottish and live in Scotland who really hate the SNP or hate the idea of Scottish independence or love being British will have done the same.

    Those labour voters who are Scottish and live in Scotland who just cannot bring themselves to vote Tory will have to make a choice a difficult choice for them which will be determined by which they can find least unpalatable between voting Lib Dem who they remember as being the turncoat party that went into government with the tories and changed their policies to have that power thereby letting down and betraying their voters
    voting green or SNP which will make Scottish independence more likely an event they feel will reduce the chances of a future socialist government.

    People regularly quote the number of English people living in Scotland as being the number shown in the last census of 2011, big mistake.
    There has been a huge increase in the number of English people moving to Scotland from England in the last decade selling their home in England and buying a better house in Scotland for half the price ,many retiring to Scotland for the scenery and countryside and many coming to Scotland to work in our public institutions universities schools hospitals local government central government and government agencies as well as the oil and gas and wind industry.
    Every day you will meet English people in Scotland there are so many.
    The increase this last decade has been way above the 1.5% of previous decades.
    And then you have the substantial number here with HM Forces.

    Could be that all of those came here naturally because our neighbour is a country with twelve times as many people as us but I don’t think it’s that alone, there has been a steady purposeful effort to put people from England in senior positions in our public institutions universities schools hospitals local government central government and other government agencies because Westminster knows they are then likely to choose more English people for future vacancies there are just too many for t to have been a natural effect of having a bigger neighbour.

    Scottish people appear to be very unwilling to accept that their democratic choices are being systematically undermined by England’s Westminster and English people living in Scotland aided and abetted by Scottish britnats.

    Liked by 2 people

    • ArtyHetty April 8, 2019 / 4:56 pm

      As someone who upped sticks to come to Scotland 30 years ago, from the North East of England, I have to agree with what you say. I came to Scotland as a poor artist, loved it and stayed it seemed more civilised even then!

      Edinburgh is awash with people from England, they are the ones with the money by and large. As you say many also buying cheaper houses which are in idyllic locations, many retirees! Many or even most will as you say vote for their country of England to keep ruling over Scotland. I also agree with your point about English people in high positions in our institutions, in fact you would struggle to find a Scottish accent in many of these jobs at high level. I have laways wondered why? Where do Scottish people disappear to post study? Or are they not talented or good enough, well no.

      Scotland has been well and truly colonised, that is going to be very hard to shake off. There are though many people who are originaly from England who do support Scottish independence, just not enough! Remember also, people come to Scotland for cleaner air, free prescriptions, free tuition for their kids and grandkids, lower council tax, more space, much more space etc. Oh and a well functioning SNHS.

      I am seeing loads of young English people working at our local Scotmid, they are really nice and interesting to talk to. Get the odd look with my ‘bairns not bombs’ and pro SNP badges, but that can come from some Scottish people there as well. I just hope the young English people vote for indy, I suspect many will not though, they know nothing of Scotland’s history mostly, which to me is crucial to peoples’ ideas of how and why the so called ‘union’ came about, and why it is not good for their chosen country, Scotland.

      It’s a really difficult one, and makes you wonder in fact, England is 2/3rd’s size of Scotland yet has a huge population in comparison, with fewer jobs to go around now, less space, more pollution, etc, so the agenda in keeping Scotland is not just economic, it’s also very likely demographic. Also why we are seeing the UKgov throw people out of Scotland via their disgusting UKgov immigration system, ever tightening their grip on who can come into our country!
      ( some have been thrown out who ran businesses and employed people!).

      Also, they are making sure that people outwith (and I mean from abroad) Scotland are put off coming to live and work here, and that started even before, or around the time of the vote, for Brexit, when they removed post study visas for overseas students in Scotland. Not so in five English Uni’s oh no, thy still have post study visas. Students and graduates tend to contribute a lot, economically, culturally, and socially. It broadens minds, broadens lives and makes Scotland a welcoming outward looking country. Students from abroad pay huge University fees, it keeps our Uni’s going. That has been chipped away at by the British Nationalist government, it’s actually scary.

      I am a Scot now, I love this country, I will not stand by and allow the Britnats take it backwards, Scotland was kept poor by their parasitic neighbour for too long already. Scotland has been stolen from, abused and ridiculed, that is being normalised at the moment, it’s not difficult to see the Brits would want to demonise another country and their democratically elected government.

      I fear, as you say, and it’s nothing against the English of course, but with Brexit, Scotland might become the next destination for ‘ex pats’, another Benidorm, with only a bit of the sunhine, but hey when you have free care for the elderly, lower CT, and free tuition/prescriptions, water that is NOT privatised, a bit of rain can be tolerated. 😦


  4. Jim Coll April 7, 2019 / 7:52 pm

    My response to Terry Callachan is to say that, in my experience, people who originated in England are often the backbone of SNP branches. With regard to the numbers of English people in the academic and medical worlds, this too is explainable. The Wilson government, of before your time no doubt, expanded education dramatically and quickly. The result was the creation of new academic institutions that needed staff and Scotland could not meet the demand. In healthcare, many English arrivals are attracted to the pro-NHS attitude prevailing here. A final thought for you Terry, how many English accents are there on a typical Orange walk?


  5. Alasdair Macdonald. April 7, 2019 / 8:57 pm

    I think that the criticism of the voting preferences on English born residents of Scotland is rather to generalised and scattergun. They have come to Scotland for a variety of reasons. In many of the sparser populated parts of Scotland the economy has been sustained by the enterprise and creativity of people from furth of Scotland, the largest proportion of whom are English born. I know many English born people who are supporters of independence, particularly the ‘civic nationalism’ethos, which is much in keeping with the “a’ the bairns o Adam” idea. There are a number who have a British and/or colonialist mindset. But, there are many who have looked North and seen a more communitarian society than that which is emerging in parts of England we need more people in Scotland, and I am happy to welcome open minded people who are prepared to work as if they are in the early days of a better nation.

    With regard to the apparent increase in the expressed Tory vote, taking the longer historic perspective, as recently as 1955 the Tories won a majority in Scotland. The vote really only began to slide when many of the Protestant working class realised that the Tories were not serving their economic interests and secondly with the advent of Mrs Thatcher, who was clearly a British/English nationalist and who with her privatisations destroyed much of the genuinely whole-Britain businesses and institutions.

    However, for a variety of reasons, many set out well by Mr Gerry Hassan in his “The Strange Death of Labour Scotland”, but also due to other factors such as the complacency and corruption of Labour after more than 50 years’ dominance, because of Iraq, because of the growing competence of the SNP and because of the appalling behaviour of Labour in 2014, when they took the Tory shilling and celebrated with the Tories. The cavilling, sour negativity of its MSPs and the sheer mediocrity of its procession of leaders led many to seeing them as irrelevant.

    Compared to these nonentities, Ruth Davidson, with the aid of the media seemed energetic and appeared to be expressing views that resonated for many. I know a number of once solid Labour voters who said openly, “I wish she led Labour”. Despite that many on the independence see her as lightweight, others are attracted to he and she has made the Union a TORY strength. The Tories in Scotland have a stance in Scotland that is more centrist and communitarian than in England, despite the views of some o the MPs. Labour has always had a strong conservative (small’c’) aspect to it, particularly on social issues, if not economic ones. Seeing an arrogant and oppositionist Labour Party in Scotland, and feeling themselves British, a number of traditional Labour voters see the Tories as the defenders of the union. In this, they are reverting to a fairly widely held Protestant working class position when Tories were being elected in working class areas like Kelvingrove and Tradeston.

    There is, of course a sectarian, racist, homophobic, misogynistic and xenophobic section of Tory support, despite Ms Davidson. As far as I am concerned, not far below the surface are economic, social and political views which I abjure. However, there are people whose views on social issues are similar to mine, but whose economic views are ‘liberal’. Mr Michael Fry is a good example. A fair number of people of that kidney are committed supporters of independence. An independent Scotland will be a pluralist society and there will be a Conservative type party, which is sincerely, proudly Scottish.

    I will not be voting for it, but I know several people who will be and who are good friends and decent human beings.

    The people who in this poll expressed a preference for the Tories might well, as many do, choose to vote differently in Scottish, UK, local and EU elections in subtle ways which reflect the nuanced insights into the political situation.

    Many pro independence supporters characterise Mr Murdo Fraser as an eejit, but, he is an advocate of a separate Scottish Conservative Party. Ms Davidson and others are not too keen on the potential post Theresa May leaders and a separate party is not unlikely. In changing circumstances, many of those declaring for the Tories might well see an independent Scotland as desirable ….after all, they run a fair chunk of its businesses and institutions and they sing Flower of Scotland at Murrayfield with real emotion!

    If we are to get an independent Scotland we need more friends than enemies.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Robert Graham April 8, 2019 / 10:51 am

    Just confirms my view that a lot of Scots are indeed Stupid ,

    Even a short glance at what they stand for and what they do is so out of touch with reasonable behavour it becomes apparent a lot of folk have very very short memories .

    Quite baffling in my Opinion a supposedly intelligent Nation would even consider voting Tory . must be something in the water .

    Liked by 1 person

  7. gavin April 8, 2019 / 1:44 pm

    The most articulate and convincing advocate of independence I came across, was a contractor I had lots of dealing with at a Royal Navy facility near Dunoon. It was 1968, he was English, living here and married to a Scot. He simply could not understand why Scots would not want to run their own country. This before oil and all the rest.
    Its true that Edinburgh University found a majority of Scots voting for independence in 2014, but were denied by people from elsewhere in the UK and people from the EU who overwhelmingly voted for the Union.
    Eu citizens would probably vote 10-1 for indy now. What we need, however, is a groundswell of Scots to want it. Its no use blaming others for our own chicken-livered nature.

    Liked by 2 people

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