Deeply pessimistic former UK Treasury worker and GERS supporter predicts bad news for SNP in Glasgow Herrod




In the Herrod today, the latest gloomy speculation from GERs supporter, Professor John McLaren. Before we get to today’s thoughts, here’s the Prof’s impartial academic contribution back in 2016:


If you need a reminder as to how this ‘leading economist’ seems to be a bit behind the times, see these pieces thoroughly debunking GERS:

Loyal rather than leading, the Prof is at it again today:

‘The Brexit-related arguments that the break-up of an economic and customs union will result in a negative impact on future economic growth – due to increased tariff and non-tariff barriers – are also valid in the case of Scottish independence from the UK economic union.’

He goes on to elaborate but Willie Rennie, leading LibDem, cuts to the chase for us with:

‘This report should make clear to the Nationalists that independence would only worsen the economic chaos of Brexit. Straight away, independence would mean almost £10bn per year less for public services. A lower rate of economic growth will further eat away at cash for the NHS and education.’

There isn’t really anything to engage with in the piece itself because, as he admits quietly at times, it’s all speculation. As for where his speculation’s gloomy parameters form, I’d say it emerges from a set of unconscious predispositions and deep emotions concerning Scottish independence, developed in the family, at school, at university and in the UK Treasury, which he can’t really help. It’s hard to think freely with a Union Flag stamped on yer bahookie.

Footnote: You may not need to be reminded of how much we should distrust anything coming out of the UK Treasury but just in case:–They-can-by-Michael-Collins-Alex-Salmond_BBC-News_Independence_Referendum-140914-125.html



9 thoughts on “Deeply pessimistic former UK Treasury worker and GERS supporter predicts bad news for SNP in Glasgow Herrod

  1. Craig Fraser February 2, 2019 / 8:56 am

    HMRC dis-aggregated tax and NIC receipts for 2017/18 released October 2018. Page 12 shows tax revenues collected in Scotland £45 Bn our block grant £30 Bn. Scotland is as we know a wealthy asset rich nation.

    Liked by 3 people

    • William Henderson February 2, 2019 / 9:49 am

      Exactly! The main reason(?) for Westminster’s opposition to full sovereignty for Scotland is economic.

      They would have to pay for what they are now extracting for free. Can’t have that, can we???

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Craig Fraser February 2, 2019 / 3:11 pm

    Regards oil revenue on page 13 of the same HMRC report point 28 with North Sea revenues apportioned on a population basis. England 86.7% for Wales 3.7% for Scotland 8.1% and Northern Ireland 2.3%. point 29 when apportioned on a geographic basis our share goes up to 10.2%. So to my limited knowledge of this 80+% remain with Westminster. Scotland robbed blind for years.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Graham February 2, 2019 / 3:38 pm

    Looks like the “negative impact” has hit the good prof hard already, as he seems unable to afford a decent haircut.


  4. Legerwood February 2, 2019 / 8:28 pm

    Was there not something recently on a BBC news programme where one of their business reporters said that the Scottish economy was worth £200 billion?

    I think they were talking about the 9.3% hit the UK would suffer in the event of a no-deal Brexit and the reporter said that would equate to the £200billion economic contribution Scotland made to the UK economy.

    The interview is on YouTube but do not know how to do the link

    Liked by 1 person

    • Legerwood February 3, 2019 / 11:58 pm

      Yes that is it. Thank you


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