Homicide in 2016: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate
In 2016, Scotland already had one of the lower homicide rates in Europe but by 2018, it had fallen even further to become one of the lowest and is below that for England & Wales. I can’t find 2018 figures for all of those above but, assuming no major changes downward, Scotland now has a level only bettered by Norway, Iceland and Ireland.
The homicide rate for Scotland in 2018 was 0.91 per 100 000 putting it lower than globally low-crime Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Even in 2016, the rate for England & Wales was higher at 1.22 per 100 000 but this seems likely rise again for 2018 with a massive 14% rise being reported in the media. The 2018 rate for Sweden, also, seems likely to have risen dramatically in the wake of frequent fatal attacks between organised criminals from different minority groups.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/homicide-scotland-2017-18/pages/2/
https://www.thelocal.se/20180327/swedens-lethal-violence-stats-for-2017-detailed
Talking-up Scotland 
Good work Prof, good read, very interesting.
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Thanks T. I’m partly responsible for the drop in homicide too, having retired before I murdered the Principal, the VP, the Ass deans, the HoDs……….
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I can hardly wait for the BBC Scot news to confirm they will ignore this.
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This is a hugely important statistic in relation to all crime.
I used to be a police officer & know first hand how manipulation of statistics can be used to make things look better than they might be (defining a crime as a ‘serious assault’ rather than ‘attempted murder’, or ‘vandalism’ instead of ‘house breaking’ – ‘burglary’ is the English equivalent – & that sort of thing) but you cannot disguise the number of people killed unlawfully (the crimes of ‘murder’ or ‘culpable homicide’ – ‘manslaughter’ in England) unless you hide the bodies & nobody reports them missing.
Prior to devolution the background rate of murder in Scotland was about 120 per year but since 1999 it has fallen to around 60 & remained there ever since. The SNP can’t claim the credit for this trend because it started before they came to power but under their watch the trend has not reversed so they can claim much credit for keeping the worst of violent crime low.
Sure, there has been an improvement in trauma care in these years & that will have moved a few from the category of ‘murder’ to ‘attempted murder’ but that doesn’t explain how Scots now kill each other at half the rate they used to 20 years ago.
Scotland: not as shit as you think it is (or the BBC tells you it is, at any rate).
Incidentally, if you think the ‘good old days’ were so much better, think again. A former colleague was the community cop in Peterculter, one if the nicer areas of Aberdeen (I covered that area too in 2008-9 but rarely had to visit because the crime rate was so low), who had been filling some of his considerable down time by looking into old crime figures. I forget the exact numbers but I do remember him saying that in 1910 (or so) there has been 6 murders in Peterculter: in 2010 there were that many in the whole of Aberdeen…
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Has there been a direct link established between a reduction in unlawfull killing and devolution? Why would there be such a dramatic reduction? I can’t think of what might have immediately changed things, except maybe a little bit less despair.
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A sense of at least some greater equality, care for the vulnerable? As in the Spirit Level book?
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I’m not aware of any direct links being established but there is definitely a correlation. Mind you, the changes started to appear pre-devolution so perhaps the New Labour government of Tony Blair started that ball rolling. But then you’d need to look at the stats in rUK to see if that trend is copied elsewhere.
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John! I’ve just remembered I copied a comment from The Wings site the other day – I am going to paste it here in its entirety (rolls eyes at those inconsiderate people that ramble on for ages) because it’s fairly interesting – but the main thing I was going to ask about was the effect of flags – do they affect political thought and behaviour (final line below)? He doesnt quote a study. Not that knowing it does or not will make a blind bit of difference. I complained a wee bit to sainsburys that their extensive use of union flags demonstrated how little of their food was sourced locally (outrage etc).
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euan0709 says:
25 January, 2019 at 4:12 pm
Scotland has changed a great deal since 2014.The 3rd Rifles ,marched into Dreghorn Barracks Edinburgh, the 1st Bn the Royal Regt of Scotland was moved to Belfast and the 4th Bn moved to Catterick Camp in England.
Teresa May has treated the Scottish Government with total contempt and along with the assistance of Ken Mackintosh and a London Court she has ignored the will of the Scottish Parliament and clawed back a shed load of powers to Westminster.
As for the Vow and Evel! I wont even go there.
One thing the British have been good at is using the Union Flag to spread propaganda and there has been a marked increase in this since 2014.
British industry flies the flag, our Driving Licences now bear a Union Flag instead of a EU flag, leading Supermarkets now package Scottish Fruit and Veg in nice Union Flag plastic packaging. Indeed Waitrose in Newton Mearns, while having little plastic Welsh flags in their Welsh lamb ( they don’t do Scottish Lamb)insist on sticking the UJ into Aberdeen Angus Scotch Beef.Which is I believe a contravention of the EU Protected Geographical Indicators List 2004.There are over 20 TV programmes, with the word British, Great British or UK in them. Every Soap Opera seems to have a Union Flag, cushion, teapot or wall plaque on display. Evan Buchannan’s the sweetie maker “the fine taste of Scotland Est 1856” has on the back of the sweetie poke a Large Union Flag with the words (in bold type) “Made in the UK”, right next to their address in Greenock. Proud Scots indeed !
Unfortunately in the last few years the wearing of the Union Flag by Police Scotland Officers under the guise of a Police charity has increased greatly. It is not uncommon to observe Police officers on normal street duty wearing a Union Flag. Indeed yesterday I saw a BTP officer in the Central Station in Glasgow wearing a large Union Flag. We live in interesting times and the Police Service must be impartial and trust and confidence in Police Scotland is paramount. The wearing of a Union Flag by a Police Officer does not reflect that impartiality.
I can think of six Police Charities that assist Police Officers in times of hardship. However if Police Officers wore all the badges that these charities represent , then the Officers would look like the Winning Racing driver on a Grand Prix Podium !
It seems that the Union Flag in the guise of the Police Firearms Officers Association, was first worn by Police Scotland Officers on firearms training exercises in England and given the blessing of ACC Bernard Higgins. My concern is that some of the Officers wearing the Union Flag and indeed ACC Higgins may view themselves as some sort of British Police Paramilitary Unit. Last year firearms units from around the UK and Scotland, held a much publicised, Training Exercise outside Edinburgh and invited the Press and TV. Many of the Police Officers wore the Union Flag on their upper arm or on their chest.
My fears increased when a recent article in the Guardian newspaper revealed that 1000 Police Officers from Scotland and the UK, would begin training this month to perform Police duties in Northern Ireland. Rather ironically PSNI Officers do not wear the Union Flag on their Uniforms.
Police Scotland Uniform Regulations are fairly straight forward. Police Officers may wear the Poppy for a short period up to and including Armistice Day. They may also wear a Diversity Badge Association as a lapel pin or similar. The SPA now admits that “there appears to be inconsistency to Police Scotland’s approach to the wearing of badges and logos”. The “Charity” Union Flag comes in different colours, from an ordinary Union Flag to a dark Military type. They measure about 2 inches x 3 inches. Way much larger than a Pin type badge.
ACC Bernard Higgins was a senior officer in Strathclyde Police, stationed at London Rd Police Office, which is halfway between Bridgton Cross and Celtic Park Football Stadium.It beggars belief that ACC Higgins would be unaware of both the Political and Sectarian loyalties behind the Union Flag and the serious unrest that these Loyalties can produce. While a Police Scotland Officer, wearing a Union Flag may be welcome at a Rangers FC game or indeed a Orange Order March as “one of the Boys”. I doubt very much wither the same bon Amie would be extended at a Celtic FC game (or indeed other teams) or at a Yes March.I mentioned to ACC Higgins that some people perceive the Union Flag as the Flag of right wing political parties and of Rangers FC. Indeed the Conservative MSP Murdo Fraser referred to Rangers as the “Queens eleven”. The only other person I heard use that term was a Senior Officer in the Firearms Unit at Jackton. I received a reply from ACC Higgins, in it he stated , “I do not necessarily agree with the conclusions that you have come to, nor the impact this Charitable Emblem! On the groups you have mentioned”. Seems the Union Flag represents a Charity.
I have spoken to and reported three officers for wearing the Union Flag and one Officer for attacking the Independence movement on and Official Police Scotland Twitter. In all of my complaints the Local Police Commanders backed me 100% and ordered the Officers concerned to remove the offending flags.
With regards to Union Flags not being a Political Symbol, I can only point to the News every day and the large crowd outside Westminster waving EU and Union Flags. I can also remember 12md in George Sq, Glasgow Friday 19th Sept 2014. Two girls were attacked by several hundred right wing thugs waving Union Flags throwing flares and burning the Saltire. Police Scotland made no arrests.
I also contacted the then Justice Minister Mr Mathieson. re the Union Flag. He was not in the slightest bit interested and referred me to The CC.
I was a Police Officer in Glasgow for over Thirty Years. During that period, there was a joke doing the rounds that to become aa member of the “Branch”, you had to be a season ticket holder at Ibrox. Seems that’s not funny anymore.
Since its inception Police Scotland has been a rudderless ship with no firm leadership. It appears that while the British Government can see the advantages of the Union Flag. The Scottish Government, The SPA and Police Scotland don’t. let me make this clear I do not want any flags on a Police Uniform. If the Police want any type of Badge I suggest the type worn by the former Regional Forces. The City of Glasgow Police was established in 1800 and was the first Police Force in Scotland and arguably the first in the rUK.In 219 years Police Officers in Scotland never wore a flag on their Uniforms, not even during Two World Wars ….Why now ?
I will leave the final word to the United States National Academy of Sciences, it states………..
“subliminal exposure to National Flags, affects Political Thought and Behaviour.
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Thanks for this. Will pursue.
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The results portray a consistent picture: subtle reminders of one’s nationality significantly influence political thought and overt political behavior.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2148371/
Will read more on this
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