Like many of you, I’d much prefer a low-carbon future for Scotland but, until the great day, I think we need the strength of our oil and gas sector as part of the toolbox in the campaign for independence. If prices fall, we can be sure that those such as the state broadcaster’s Douglas Fraser, will weaponise them in his threadbare propagandising for Reporting Scotland.
Also, like many of you, I think, I’m not a big admirer of hedge fund managers, think Theresa May’s hubby, but when it comes to oil price ‘futures’, they’re the equivalent of bookies.
So, in World Oil today:
‘NEW YORK (Bloomberg) — Hedge funds are keeping their cool in the most tumultuous end of the year for oil since the 2008 financial crisis, betting on better days ahead. They boosted wagers on rising Brent prices for a third straight week amid expectations that OPEC and allies will follow through on a deal to reduce output. The vote of confidence comes against a backdrop of turmoil in financial markets that saw one measure of oil-price volatility jump the most on record in November and head for its highest year-end level in a decade. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast Brent to average $70/bbl in 2019 as the market tightens, OPEC’s supply cuts take effect and unintended losses in Venezuela and Iran increase.’
That’s quite a tame estimate given the several predicting up to $100pb. See:
Value of Scottish oil surges to $85pb on way to $100pb in 2019
Scotland’s Oil surging bullishly toward $100 per barrel
As Scottish oil heads for $100pb will the UK Treasury tax this massive revenue?
A fifth prediction of oil rising to $100 per barrel for Scottish oil, suggests pre-tax revenue of around $1 trillion!
Like you, I, too, think that we have to move towards reducing use of hydrocarbons. However, we are where we are. It will take time to change the energy profile of the economy, although not as long as some hydrocarbon advocates claim. And, we need to take control of what is a substantial SCOTTISH asset and manage it in a way which suits our purposes and redistributes the gains via a sovereign wealth fund.
The value of the oil and gas assets is one of the principal reasons why Westminster is determined that Scotland should remain in the union. Labour will present it as a ‘pooling and sharing’ arrangement ‘for the good of all’, the overwhelming majority of whom live in England.
Since Scotland is perceived as a ‘resource provider’, our economy controlled from the City will be skewed towards maximising ‘shareholder return’ and will not be shaped to suit the diversity of Scotland.
Of course, the Nomedia response to your headline can be predicted. The headline you are quoting will immediately transfer to its opposite, at the hint of Scottish independence and this will be ‘explained’ by the fact that the market depends on ‘stability and predictability’, which is what Westminster claims that only it can provide. The paradigm about markets is, of course, tosh. What the bull traders want is instability – which is why they spend so much time causing it, because they have rigged the market to suit their own ends. THAT is where the ‘stability’ comes in – stability for the few.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Oil is still needed in manufacture of most products and will still be needed Worldwide when Scotland is 100 % Green energy.
LikeLiked by 1 person