Hume wearing his patented thinking cap to conceal his fear of recession
Broadcast 6 times this morning and on the website, BBC Scotland News report a David Hume ‘Institute’ study which wrongly claims:
‘[T]here had been “no progress” towards a target set by ministers in 2007 to improve Scotland’s productivity rankings.’
However, in the first quarter of 2018, Scottish labour productivity increased by 1.7%. See this from 22nd August 2018:
‘Additionally, this release contains a trend-based estimate of productivity growth. This indicates the underlying rate of change during the latest quarter by removing both seasonal and irregular (volatile) movements from the data. It is estimated that the trend in real output per hour worked increased by 1.7% in the first quarter of 2018.’
Was the DHI unable to remove the volatile movements from its data? Did they know about them? Could they do the sums? Did they prefer to leave them in to suit their predetermined conclusions? Did the news of a 1.7% increase in one quarter arrive when they were on holiday?
In the same period, UK labour productivity fell by 0.4%. See:
‘UK labour productivity is estimated to have fallen by 0.4% in the first three months of the year, as a result of continued strength in employment growth combined with weaker output growth; this is the first fall in output per hour since the second quarter of 2017.’