https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/957593601155870720

The Nuffield Trust have released an update, on 28^th January, on the percentage of patients waiting more than four hours in A&E. The graph above looks frankly frightening with regard to the situation in Tory England, Labour Wales and DUP Northern Ireland. It’s clear that NHS Scotland has managed to stay very near the demanding 5% maximum target requiring more than 4 hours other than in the winters of 2012/13 and 2014/15.

During the period 2012 to mid-2015, NHS England’s A&E departments performed slightly better than those in Scotland. That might be expected given the greater severity of Scottish winters. However, since then, NHS England’s A&E departments have performed less-well and this winter have begun to soar away from the Scottish performance by more than 10%. This is, of course, the period of unconstrained Tory government in the UK. These figures only go so far as end December 2017 and given the apparent trend may have worsened in January 2018. There’s no sign of these even on 31^st January 2018. NHS Scotland’s figures for January have returned to 86% being treated within the 4 hours.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Emergency-Care/Publications/2018-01-30/2018-01-30-ED-Weekly-Summary.pdf?83671206236

I haven’t said much about Wales or Northern Ireland. The graph says it all.

Footnote: Does the Nuffield Trust have a political agenda? Why did they tweet this? If you look under the tweet, several respondents suggest we won’t see this graph on BBC Scotland news!

(c) datadeluge.com

This is a light-hearted (maybe?) piece based on my accidental stumbling across the concept of ‘Sturgeon’s Law’ which was developed by the Science Fiction writer, Theodore Sturgeon, in 1958. Here’s what he said:

‘I repeat Sturgeon’s Revelation, which was wrung out of me after twenty years of wearying defense of science fiction against attacks of people who used the worst examples of the field for ammunition, and whose conclusion was that ninety percent of SF is crud. Using the same standards that categorize 90% of science fiction as trash, crud, or crap, it can be argued that 90% of film, literature, consumer goods, etc. is crap. In other words, the claim (or fact) that 90% of science fiction is crap is ultimately uninformative, because science fiction conforms to the same trends of quality as all other artforms.’

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon%27s_law

As a youngster, in the PNE*, I read SF constantly and suffered from critics saying it was 100% crap. I knew much was but by no means all of it was. Unfortunately, I didn’t know of Sturgeon, in those days, but I like the notion that 90% of most things are crap or crud as he put it.

Now Sturgeon is quite an uncommon name, so it seems plausible that Theodore and Nicola are connected. That being the case, I think she should take over management of the theory and see whether it applies beyond art forms in the 21^st Century. As a first task she might try it out on the Scottish Tories.

Oh, no, I’ve tried it myself. It doesn’t apply. 100% of Scottish Tories are trash, crud, or crap. Well, one exception doesn’t spoil a theory. Let’s try it on Scottish Labour.

Oh shit, they’re 100% trash, crud, or crap too.

Hmm, it looks like I’m up a gumtree here. Before I give up totally, try a few yourself and let me know.

*Pre-Nicola Era

Footnote: I know, you’ve applied the law to my blog. I don’t want to know!

(c) thinkstock

Scotland is to be the first part of the UK with a statutory target for equal representation of women on public boards. As you know, the Scottish Cabinet already has such equality.

First on banning smoking in public places, first on minimum alcohol pricing, first on free-care for the disabled, first to have statutory targets for tackling poverty and homelessness, first to ban the use of wild animals in travelling circuses, first on baby boxes and free sanitary products, first to propose giving refugees the right to vote, first to ban the use of electric collars on dogs and now first to demand equal representation for women on public boards. Private boards will take a bit of doing.

From Insider magazine, yesterday:

‘New legislation aimed at ensuring women make up at least half the board members for all public authorities is expected to be win the support of MSPs. They are expected to pass legislation will make Scotland the only part of the UK with a statutory target for the proportion of women on public boards. It rules that females make up a minimum of 50% of non-executive members by 2022.The Gender Representation on Public Boards (Scotland) Bill would apply to colleges, universities and some public bodies including health boards, enterprise agencies, the Scottish Police Authority and the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service.’

 

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/scotland-become-only-part-uk-11937430

One more piece of evidence of enough of a difference in our predominant values, popular and governmental, to suggest that we don’t belong in any state dominated by conservative, archaic, values and currently governed by a Conservative Party full of openly misogynistic buffoons and women who have drawn the ladder up behind them?

The money will go directly to 2 387 schools based on the level of deprivation in their catchment area. Schools will then be free to use the money in the way they think best suited to help disadvantaged pupils close the attainment gap in literacy and numeracy.

I feel sure one reader (Alasdair?) will have good ideas on this. My own view is that, in the main, it should be used to reduce class sizes in these key areas and at key points such as S1 and S2 when, in particular, disaffected, adolescent males lose the most ground on their peers in more affluent areas.

Although we know of the above problem from statistics, other age groups in Scotland do not suffer from the massive attainments gaps found in England. We also know that teacher/pupil ratios in Scotland are more favourable than elsewhere in the UK.

The pupil/teacher ratio is only one of several factors likely to narrow attainment gaps, but it is an important one and one which governments can do something directly about. Once more, this suggests the SNP government in Scotland is making a difference, not seen under previous Labour/Lib Dem administrations and clearly not a high priority for the Tory one in Westminster. Notably, UK fee-paying schools use their ratio of 9 pupils per teacher as a marketing tool and say:

‘Significantly smaller class sizes are proven to improve academic achievement as the ability to spend more time with each child allows teachers to get to know their personal strengths, weaknesses and learning styles, ensuring that their individual needs are met.’

http://www.hmc.org.uk/about-hmc/why-choose-a-hmc-school/smaller-class-sizes/

See this for more:

SNP Government increases teacher numbers to create far superior pupil/teacher ratios and much smaller attainment gaps than in England

You may have read of criticisms suggesting that giving more power to head teachers and by implication taking it away from local councils might not be effective. For a rebuttal of this largely Labour and political attack on anything the SNP do, see:

In the Herald, SNP warned that giving more power to head-teachers in Sweden “led to declining standards” No it didn’t.

From a report in Insider yesterday, see these details:

‘Glasgow City Council, Scotland’s largest authority, will benefit from more than a sixth of the cash, receiving £21.8m to help fund improvements at 191 schools. The Education Secretary, John Swinney, announced the funding breakdown ahead of a visit to St Francis RC Primary School in Dundee, where staff used part of the cash they received in the first funding round to set up six week-long summer schools focused on boosting literacy, numeracy and well-being for pupils in the most deprived areas. Neil Lowden, the headteacher of St Francis RC Primary School, said the cash from the scheme “has had a significant impact on how I have managed my school in terms of the absolute focus on raising attainment in literacy and numeracy as well as improving outcomes in health and wellbeing for the children in St Francis”.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/schools-share-120m-close-attainment-11937777

Long experience in education has taught me to be wary of initiatives from politicians but this one does seem to leave the key decision-making where it should be, in the schools.

Based on the latest figures for 2016-17 published by Scottish Funding Council, Scotland’s Further Education college sector has delivered across a range of indicators which show that they are fulfilling their essential role in providing meaningful access to the disabled, those from the most derived areas, those from ethnic minorities, older students and those who are, or have been, care givers.

In 2016, the proportion of learning hours allocated to these groups increased to a record high.

In addition, these colleges continued to play a crucial role in providing access to Higher Education through their articulation agreements with universities and by so doing, considerably reducing the, often prohibitive, travel and accommodation costs for many local students. Around 30% of Scotland’s HE provision, for Year 1 and 2 students, takes place in local FE colleges.

Here are the statistics from the funding council report:

• In 2016-17 97.4% of learning hours were delivered on courses that led to a recognised qualification – an 8.7 percentage point increase since 2006-07.
• For those aged 25 and older, the number of funded full-time enrolments has increased by 41.9% (to 19,175), since 2006-07.
• 17.2% of all credits (a proxy for learning hours) were delivered to students from the 10% most deprived areas in 2016-17 – an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2015-16.
• 17.1% of all learning hours were delivered to students with a declared disability in 2016-17 – an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2015-16.
• The proportion of learning hours delivered to students from BME backgrounds is at its highest level ever – 6.4% in 2016-17.
• The proportion of credits delivered to students reporting a care-experienced background reached 1.6% in 2016-17, the highest on record.

https://news.gov.scot/news/quality-and-equality-improve-in-colleges

I’m not sure how these data fit in with the opposition wails that the FE sector was being damaged by the SNP.

Over the last year or so, I’ve reported on a range of indicators that the Scottish economy is strengthening and often is doing so more than the UK was a whole. Unlike the GDP and GERS data which, for Scotland, are based on unreliable estimates, there are objective measures nearly all of which have been good news. See for example:

And another one: ‘Scotland Revealed as Top Place in UK to Launch New Business’

£226 million given in relief to small businesses in 2017-18 as part of most generous scheme in the UK

40% increase in number of new Scottish businesses mainly under SNP government

Scottish businesses continue to show signs of health with insolvencies down 23% as the Scottish economy holds strong

‘Fewer Scottish businesses failing in 2017’

Scottish businesses showing signs of greater health than those in the rest of the UK

Note in many of these reports, the role of the Scottish Government in supporting and promoting positive change in the Scottish economy.

Today, in Insider, we read of another sign of business strength and confidence:

‘Profits warnings from listed companies in Scotland fell to their lowest in six years in 2017, according to the latest profit warning report from EY. The final quarter of 2017 also saw the lowest Q4 total – three – for Scotland since 2011, when there was just one. There were 13 profit warnings in total from Scotland in 2017, down from 19 the previous year.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/profit-warnings-scotland-hit-six-11934170

Putting everything together:

• Low unemployment
• Low youth unemployment
• Increased demand for industrial and office space
• A trade balance surplus
• Increased new businesses
• Business confidence
• Oil prices surging
• Massive new oil and gas discoveries
• Renewables energy generation reaching new peaks
• Universities at the centre of innovation
• Massive tourism increases
• Government competence

and you have real evidence of an economy that is thriving and that has the resources and the potential to boom once the levers of control are located in Scotland.

(c) theplanner.co.uk

Headlined in the Scotsman yesterday:

Scotland ‘building more affordable homes than England’

we read:

‘In answer to a parliamentary question from Edinburgh North and Leith MSP Ben Macpherson, housing minister Kevin Stewart revealed that 70,861 affordable homes had been built from April 2007 to September 2017.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scotland-building-more-affordable-homes-than-england-1-4676278

So, a good headline ‘despite’ the unnecessary ‘quotation marks’. They’re there, of course, because, that’s what the SNP say and we here at the Scotsman don’t know if it’s absolutely true. I know they’re getting short of staff, but a wee bit of research might have enabled them to be dropped.

7 231 new affordable homes were built in Scotland in 2016/2017, 3% up on 2015/2016. As always, statistics for England are not yet out. However, we can still compare the 2015/2016 figures.

In 2015/2016, the Scottish Government built 7 021 new affordable homes. That’s 1 for every 755 people.

https://news.gov.scot/news/3-increase-in-housing-supply

In the same year, in England, 32 110 new affordable homes were built in England. That’s one for every 1 650 people.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/569979/Affordable_Housing_Supply_2015-16.pdf

Comparing the Scots and English figures give a ratio of 2.18 so the Scottish Government was building at more than twice the rate in 2015/2016 and has increased building by 3% for this last year. No need for the quotation marks then?

And, the situation in England, especially in the South-East may be even worse than the above figures suggest. The UK Government definition of affordable is that affordable homes should cost no more than 80% of the average local market rent. The average rent in South-East England is currently £2344 per month. The average rent in Glasgow is £696 per month.

https://www.foxtons.co.uk/living-in/south-east-england/rentals/

http://www.scottishhousingnews.com/12278/average-private-rents-up-in-most-areas-across-scotland/

I’ll spare you the ‘despite’ and the ‘but’ as the Scotsman reminds us that completions were below the target set. They concluded this bit of the report with a source and data-free:

‘The gap in completions for social rent is even wider, with an increase in the completion rate of 159 per cent needed to meet the target.’

I know, it’s ‘balance’.

With a wee bit of research, the headline could have been the same as mine in September 2017:

Scottish Government increases supply of affordable housing and builds at more, perhaps much more, than twice the rate as in England

 

Research carried out for the Electoral Commission has concluded:

‘This newly published research supports the assertion that if people vote early in life, they keep voting in later life.’ 

This evidence that early voting leads to greater engagement later and a consequent increase in the overall quality of a democracy is the main basis for the Commission’s recommendation that Westminster and Cardiff should follow the Scottish example.

The researchers used data from the Scottish independence referendum as their starting point:

‘A survey commissioned by the Electoral Commission following the Scottish Independence Referendum (in which 16 and 17-year-olds were entitled to vote) found that an impressive 75% had taken part.  The figure is doubly impressive given the fact this was the first time anyone within that group would have voted.  The survey also rubbished the lazy assumption that because voter turnout has been low among 18 to 24-year-olds then it will be similarly low among 16 and 17-year-olds. The claimed turnout among the former group was just 54% by comparison. The fact that 16 and 17-year-olds voted in large numbers in the Scottish Independence referendum shows that given the chance, those under 18 will exercise their democratic right.’  

However, they add the results of research carried out in 2015 to make the important point that this experience seems likely to have had a lasting impact:

‘New research now supplemented this finding by providing evidence that not only will they vote, but that it is highly likely they will continue to vote and be more politically engaged as a result. Through a survey carried out in February 2015 (after the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014) it was found that 67% of 16 and 17-year-olds in Scotland indicated they would likely vote if allowed to do so in the General Election, compared to just 39% south of the border.  Furthermore, while 57% of Scottish respondents said they had taken part in at least one form of non-electoral political engagement, only 40% of 16 and 17-year-olds from the rest of the UK reported the same.’ 

https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/survey-results-add-weight-to-argument-for-votes-at-16/

This comes as no surprise to me, based on admittedly anecdotal, but quite numerous, reports from young voters I met in Ayr, in the years after the Referendum.

This is the latest report of many this year, in Energy Voice, pointing to dramatic rises in oil prices in the next year or so with several now suggesting a return to greater than £100 dollar per barrel. See this from only six days ago:

Is a third forecast that Scotland’s oil will hit $100 per barrel again, a sure sign?

Here’s what Energy Voice had to say today:

‘The enthusiasm in the oil markets is breaking records. Hedge funds reported record wagers on continued price increases for both U.S. and global oil benchmarks, along with gasoline and diesel. Meanwhile, producers are hedging production at record rates as oil experiences its best January since 2006.’

The enthusiasm is underpinned by earlier reports of massive increases in demand from Asia, OPEC discipline on pricing and emerging shortages of supply, leading to four predictions from industry chiefs and economic bodies of prices rising above £100 per barrel in the months to come. With the BP chief predicting costs to fall as low as $12 per barrel, the scope for revenue gathering by an independent Scotland could be immense, in the two or three decades before peak oil. See:

Is Peak Oil still 20 or 30 years in the future and so, would an independent Scotland be rich?

Returning to the investors, the Energy Voice piece reports:

‘Another significant sign the oil crash is behind us, is the clear shift in the futures curve. Both in New York and London, the closer the delivery, the higher the price all the way through 2022. That pattern, known as backwardation, is typical of times when demand is rising, and supplies are tightening, and it hadn’t been so marked since 2014.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/162117/oil-unstoppable-hedge-funds-take-bets-new-high/

I know oil revenue cannot be the central strand in the Indyref2 campaign but, equally, it cannot now be used by Unionists to weaken it.

Note also:

Sterling’s surge is being fueled by oil, not a Brexit bounce

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/27/sterlings-surge-fueled-oil-not-brexit-bounce/

 

UK Prison Population Changes from:

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN04334

I’ve suggested before, to a mixed response from readers, that if you read an English, slightly left-of-centre newspaper, you might get more fair coverage, even positive coverage, of Scottish Government actions. On January 22^nd I reported the Guardian piece on the SNP plan for an independent Scottish Commission on Social Security which was entirely positive and enthusiastic with none of the ‘ah buts’ you’d get in the Scottish media. See:

How to get fair coverage of Scottish politics. Read a slightly left-of-centre English newspaper

Today, the Independent, wrote of the prison situation in England in these terms:

‘Life behind bars is a world of squalor and suicides, of desperation and drugs, of mentally-ill prisoners in dank cells, of fearful guards working amid violence. David Gauke, our sixth justice secretary in eight years, has been made to intervene over Nottingham prison after eight inmates killed themselves in two years, the chief inspector repeating charges that the prison was “fundamentally unsafe”. A prison officer claimed there were two suicide attempts each week amid an epidemic of self-harm. Then came a damning report into Liverpool prison exposing inhumane conditions with damp, dirty and blocked toilets, broken windows, freezing cells, cockroaches and rats in rubbish piles. Many inmates were locked in tiny cells for much of the day, the prison swamped with drugs, and a convicted killer managed to escape.’

The horrors outlined above are explained in the report as being, in the main, the result of politicians trying to satisfy ‘populist pressures’ by doubling the numbers incarcerated in the space of only two decades. Spending cuts and reduced staffing under Tory austerity policies have made the situation even worse. At first, the writer suggests looking to the Netherlands where incarceration rates have fallen from levels comparable to those in England but then remembers this idea:

‘Simply look over the border in Scotland, where a left-liberal alliance is stumbling (sic) its way towards a more progressive approach. This began eight years ago when the Scottish National Party government passed a presumption against prison for sentences under three months after two decades of rising jail populations. Such short terms are worse than useless, disrupting family and work ties with no chance of rehabilitation. So Scottish judges must justify in court why they wish to use a sentence under 12 weeks, especially if a suitable community scheme is available. There has been an eight per cent fall in prison numbers as crime and reconviction rates fell.’

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/grandson-holocaust-survivors-i-feel-horrors-auschwitz-73-years/

Needless to say, our media have been more excited with Ruth Davidson’s call for life to mean life for the tiny handful of murderers in the system while ignoring her failure to engage with the wider issues.