As Ruth Davidson’s supposedly strong reputation begins to collapse as Theresa May makes it clear she has little influence of central party policy and as Scottish Labour face civil war between Corbynites and Sarwar supporters, the SNP look strong with good reason to expect further increases in their lead.
Here are the Scottish ‘voting intention’ subset sample figures from the YouGov/Times survey based on fieldwork between the 30th and 31st of August 2017:
Lib Dem 5%
That’s a strong result after facing the Corbynite surge and the media-constructed inflation of Ruth Davidson and the supposed Tory surge. Things can only improve as the Scottish government continues to impress with policies diametrically opposed to the Tories. The poll as a whole, puts Labour, in the UK, only one point ahead of the Tories on 41%. That tells you something disturbing, especially, for Scots. Despite their series of policy disasters and internal conflicts, England remains a place where the Tories are always a threat and can come through to power regardless of their competence or callous policies (bedroom tax, rape clause etc). Indeed, I have to assume that it is these very callous policies that keep their support up amongst a large section of the English population.
The first past the post system means that the UK Tories on 40% can always win while the Scottish Tories, generally at less than 25% never can. It’s one of those differences between the two countries that suggest the need for separation.
One interesting detail which I think can further increase the confidence of the SNP is in the table of issues which respondents think the most important. Right across the UK, Health was rated the most important but with 58% of Scots rating it so compared with 67% of Southern English doing so. I could be reading too much into to this but does it suggest Scots feel their NHS is performing better than those in the South of England do? Southern English voters were subject to daily accounts of NHS crises, even a ‘humanitarian crisis’, according to the Red Cross, over the winter of 2016/2017 whereas NHS Scotland commonly outperforms the rest of the country. See for example: