Talking-up Scotland

This is the third poll showing stronger support in Scotland for both Labour and SNP with latter still almost guaranteed a landslide and losing only Borders. See:

Poll suggests Tory support falling in Scotland too as Labour close the gap in England and overturn a Tory lead in Wales. The SNP pull away again and even In Scotland too, Labour close the gap.

Latest poll: Backing for Scottish independence at 57%

ComRes polls have tended to show Tory support stronger and both Labour and SNP support as weaker. See this from politicalbetting.com:

‘With both ComRes and Opinium, the Tory lead has halved in a month. Tories had a 25% lead with ComRes, now 12%, 19% with Opinium, now 10%. As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.’

http://politicalbetting.com/

The above model development was based on the failure to predict the Tory win in 2015. As far as I can see ComRes ‘adjust’ the poll by assuming a higher turnout by Tories. That might be true, with regard to Labour voters in England, but I’m not so sure it applies to SNP voters. Given the reception for the Tory and Labour manifestos, I have a feeling Labour voters will be more likely to turn out than in the past.

Today’s Opinium Poll again contradicts ComRes most recent poll suggesting recovery by the Tories and a low figure for the SNP. Here are Opinium’s figures for Scottish respondents:

Conservative               22%

Labour                         26%

LibDem                        3%

SNP                              46%

This suggests to me that many of the Labour defectors to the Tories on the issue of the Union have had time to think about it and the much-welcomed Corbyn-inspired Labour manifesto will draw most back regardless of Dugdale. Earlier Labour defectors to the SNP look like staying where they are confident in the knowledge that they did not betray progressive values. The SNP vote is likely to fall below the 2015 figure but this suggests by too little to make any difference given the massive majorities they hold everywhere but in Borders.

Footnote: The SurveyMonkey poll is, I think, self-selecting thus completely unreliable.