Talking-up Scotland

Published in Oil Industry News on 2 March 2017, BP has announced a number of projects, globally, suggesting they are getting back to growth. Four projects in the North Sea and one west of Shetland are included amongst these.

Coming online this year are UK North Sea projects Clair Ridge, and Culzean along with seven other projects across the globe including the curiously named Mexican project Mad Dog 2! Applications to work on the latter must be flooding in…..from Mexican prisons?

Within the next five years, perhaps as soon as 2018, Clair South, west of Shetland, Alligin in the UK North Sea and Vorlich in the Central North Sea are confidently expected to be added, having entered the final investment decision stage.

These projects are based on the $55 per barrel price which now seems at least stable and probably likely to increase according to a number of indicators, including SNP policy, hedge fund trends and other investment by operators which I’ve mentioned already in:

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/14/north-sea-oil-and-gas-is-on-the-crest-of-a-third-wave-and-the-snp-government-is-already-supporting-plans-for-it/

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/26/global-demand-for-oil-could-outdo-the-10-year-average-in-2017-why-the-snp-government-the-sector-and-hedge-funds-are-all-optimistic/

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/23/hedge-funds-bet-big-on-oil/

According to BP:

‘The projects coming online in 2016 and 2017 are on track to deliver 500,000 boe/d [barrels of oil equivalent per day] of new production capacity by the end of this year,” says BP. “The new upstream projects remain on track to deliver 800,000 boe/d of new production by 2020, as previously guided. On average, the new projects are also expected to have operating cash margins 35% higher than the average of BP’s upstream portfolio in 2015.’

I know a lot of people lost their jobs in the downturn but we can now look to at least some re-employment in an admittedly streamlined sector. Such employment crashes are the brutal consequence of technology advances in other free-market sectors too. That’s why we need left-of-centre governments to protect welfare and to invest in capital projects and at least even-out unemployment trends.

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/13567/bp-production-on-the-rise/

The World Organisation for Animal Health will consider the recommendation at its assembly in May. It’s important to note that ‘negligible risk’ is the highest recommendation any country can have. Scotland’s current status is ‘controlled risk’. The last confirmed case in Scotland was in 2002. The last case in Wales was only last year and the last in England was in 2012. England and Wales are not due to have their status reconsidered before 2020 at the earliest.

The Scottish Association of Meat Wholesalers submitted the application for re-grading with the help of the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Economy and Connectivity. They noted:

‘We applaud the  work done by….Fergus Ewing and his officials in advancing and pursuing ‘negligible risk’ case on the industry’s behalf and look forward to being free to trade under our new status as early as the summer.’

Some readers may remember how BSE started. If not see this from Frederick A. Murphy, DVM, PhD, Dean of the School of Veterinary Medicine at the University of California in mad-cow.org:

‘In the early 1980s in England the rendering process (by which livestock carcasses are converted to various products, including protein supplements for livestock feed) was changed. Earlier, a solvent extraction step had been used to extract fats (tallow); this step was stopped when the price of the petroleum-based solvents used to extract fats went up. The infectious agent is solvent-sensitive. Otherwise, the infectious agent is extremely hardy — it can survive boiling and many disinfectants, but is readily destroyed by extremely high temperature (such as in an autoclave), or by oxidizing agents, or by solvents.’

My source is American so the use of the word ‘England’ above may mean nothing though the first reported case was in West Sussex.

http://meatinfo.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/20923/Scotland_92s_wholesalers_welcome_BSE_breakthrough.html

http://mad-cow.org/~tom/vet_interview.html

© dumbartonreporter.co.uk

Despite working in some of the most challenging circumstances in terms of poverty and inequality, West Dunbartonshire’s children’s services did well in a recent inspection by the Care Inspectorate. The inspectorate concluded:

‘In the course of our inspection, we identified a number of particular strengths which were making a positive difference for children and young people in the community planning West Dunbartonshire area.

• The strength of strategic approaches to targeting key universal health services had achieved some real gains within a very challenging context of high deprivation.
• Highly committed staff groups across the partnership demonstrated clear ownership of the strategic vision for children, young people and families and felt clearly connected to improvement planning.
• Young people, including the most vulnerable, were meaningfully involved in influencing policy and service development.
• There was an evident commitment to early intervention and prevention with very effective early help and support processes.
• A coherent shared vision was in place and modelled by a mature partnership.’

As always in inspections of any system involving people, that system is infinitely improvable and staff working within it are constrained in the extent to which they can change human behaviour such as smoking in pregnancy. Deep in the report there are examples of real progress such as 77% of children assessed at 27-30 months were meeting developmental milestones compared to a national figure of 71.6% (5). Also schools were reporting significant improvements in smoking, alcohol consumption and drug use (6). There was, regrettably, continuing bad news with regard to increased reporting of domestic abuse.  However, with regard to the latter, there are those who argue that the recent massive increases reported across the UK represent a broadening definition of the concept and greater willingness to report especially amongst male victims. See the controversial spiked-online article below. I am, of course, not attempting to minimise the horrors of cases of domestic abuse in any way.

Returning to the report, the inspection, rated the quality indicators as below:

How well are the lives of children and young people improving?

1. Improvements in the wellbeing of children and young people Good
2. Impact on children and young people Very Good
3. Impact on families Good
4. Providing help and support at an early stage Very Good
5. Assessing and responding to risks and needs Adequate
6. Planning for individual children and young people Adequate
7. Planning and improving services Good
8. Participation of children, young people, families and other stakeholders Very Good
9. Leadership of improvement and change Good

Could always do better but, reading on and between some of these lines, I think the staff should be commended.

http://www.careinspectorate.com/images/documents/3704/West%20Dunbartonshire%20services%20for%20children%20and%20young%20people%20joint%20inspection%20report%20Feb%202017.pdf

http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/domestic-violence-is-not-on-the-rise/17733#.WLftalXyj3g

© scottishhousingnews.com

I’ve been writing plenty about the robust health and future prospects of Scotland’s renewables and oil & gas energy sectors. Of course energy efficient homes are another important part of the overall strategy. Again the Scottish Government is ahead of the game on this. See this quote from leading economists from University of Strathclyde and the London School of Economics from a report by Elmhurst Energy:

‘Whilst in England and Wales there seems to be policy ‘black hole’ due to the repeated delays in the promised ‘Every Homes Matters’ report, which was supposed to highlight the way forward for energy efficiency strategies. Scotland seems to be making its way in the right direction. It can rightly now suggest that 40% of Scottish homes were now either A, B or C rated; something which is good news for those families. Recently First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon announced in the programme for her new Government that there would £20m available to be channelled into energy efficiency.’ 

We have another major project just approved to spend £11 million building 85 new affordable and energy efficient homes in Whitburn, West Lothian on a brownfield site too. The developers, Springfield Partnerships, with a history of building 1 300 affordable homes in Scotland, describe these new building as having:

‘A mixture of robust insulation and heating from low carbon air source, once approved, the Whitburn homes will meet silver sustainability standards. All this will result in reduced running costs for the residents.’

While researching this I came across this astonishing alternative:

‘First home in Scotland to be heated with ice!’

Here’s what Stommel-Haus say:

‘The use of an ice store as an energy source is a particularly innovative solution. The ice store consists of a tank with built-in heat exchangers which is buried in the garden and filled with ordinary tap water. Special solar air absorbers are installed on the roof of the house, which draw heat from the ambient air and insolation and supply it to the cylinder. The ice store also draws heat directly from the ground.’

Get it? Me neither but, again, we can do this. Ice, we can supply.

http://www.elmhurstenergy.co.uk/energy-efficient-homes-will-boost-the-scottish-economy

http://www.scottishhousingnews.com/14074/highly-energy-efficient-homes-planned-for-west-lothian/

https://www.stommel-haus.co.uk/product-service/solar-ice/

© ScottishPower Renewables

The news on Scotland’s energy supply and future supply seems like a trail of really good news stories recently. For example, we had days, in August 2016 and January 2017 when the existing wind power system generated around 150% of our needs. The new Total gas field west of Shetland could heat every house in Scotland. There’s evidence that oil prices are at least stabilised and that companies and hedge funds are starting to bet big on a near future recovery. We’ve got a new floating wind turbine platform being piloted off Dounreay. Now, here’s another promising prospect to add to the sector – tidal energy turbines. I know, there’s one already working in Shetland but this new one with be much bigger with 270 as opposed to 5 turbines. There is a real prospect of Scotland’s energy sector becoming so productive we won’t know what to do with it. Oh, sell it to rUK and the rest of Europe, that’s it.

Do we have enough space for coastline tidal energy turbines I wonder? Well, Scotland has 11 777 km and most of it with quite lively tides. That should be enough. Just out of interest, England has 5 496km. Room for a few there too.

Here’s what Atlantis Resources had to say on 24th February:

‘First AR1500 tidal energy turbine with new technology installed to provide clean, sustainable, power for up to 175,000 homes in Scotland. The 1.5 megawatt AR1500 turbine is fitted with two innovative subsystems, the Yaw Drive System (YDS) and the Variable Pitch System (VPS), which allow the turbine to rotate autonomously around its base, so it always faces into the tidal flow. The pitch angle of the turbine blades also adjusts to optimize the power generation in a given tidal stream. The MeyGen project is currently the largest planned tidal energy project in the world. The site, in the Pentland Firth, just 2 kilometers from Scotland’s northeast tip, covers some of the fastest flowing waters in the United Kingdom. Atlantis has a goal to deploy nearly 270 turbines to generate about 400 MW of energy, enough to power 175,000 homes.’

I like the sound of a Yaw Drive System. According to the Guardian back in August 2016, Shetland already had: ‘the world’s first fully operational array of tidal power turbines in the Bluemull Sound between the islands of Unst and Yell in the north of Shetland, where the North Sea meets the Atlantic. It switched on the second of five 100kW turbines due to be installed in the sound this month, sending electricity on a commercial basis into Shetland’s local grid.’

 As with my recent report on floating windfarms, I thought I’d find out what the advantages of tidal energy are. Here’s what TheNextGalaxy has to say:

1. A Very Predictable Energy Source: Ever since the beginning of time itself, the oceans have had tides. Massive amounts of water move in extremely predictable patterns. This makes it very easy to harness the energy that these tides can generate, because we can predict their movements as far as years ahead.
2. An Inexhaustible Source of Energy: There will be no shortage of tides anytime soon. They are controlled by the gravitational pull between the earth, sun, and moon. This means that as long as the earth is being orbited by the moon, the tides will continue to be there producing energy.
3. Very Low Costs To Operate: Once the initial constructions costs are done, there are very few additional costs to keep the tidal energy plant up and running. Little maintenance is required, and minimal personnel as well.
4. Effective Even At Low Speeds: Since water is much denser than air, the amount of movement needed to generate power is very low. It has been proven that tidal energy can still be harnessed even if the water is only moving at 3 feet per second.
5. Can Last Forever: Okay, maybe not literally forever, but a very long time! Tidal energy plants are very simple, and made of durable and simple materials that can withstand the time very well.
6. Completely Green: There are no carbon emissions from tidal energy plants, making it an energy source that does not negatively affect the global environment.

Does that put this form of energy production in first place?

http://www.ukconstructionmedia.co.uk/news/construction-news/new-tidal-energy-turbine-installed-provide-sustainable-power-scotland/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/29/world-first-for-shetlands-in-tidal-power-breakthrough

http://thenextgalaxy.com/the-advantages-and-disadvantages-of-tidal-energy-power/

© bbc.co.uk

The £31.4 million Selkirk Flood Scheme was opened yesterday with the following summary posted by the Scottish Government:

750 residential homes and 120 businesses across 600 properties are now protected

• 3.1km flood embankments and 3.4km flood protection walls have been built
• St Mary’s Loch has been expanded to store 620 Olympic swimming pools of water.
• Scottish Government is providing 80% of the funding for the £31.4 million project
• Every year £42 million is allocated to flood prevention by the Scottish Government

Remember this is ongoing additional investment in a country with an already high standard of building regulations, compared to England, designed to minimise the risk of flooding, and this is a government maintaining the level of spending on flood prevention schemes unlike the Tory government in England. Further schemes, such as those in Renfrew and Brechin, have already been finished and a £36 million scheme in Hawick has begun development.

 Back in October 2016, I quoted this from the English College of Estates Management research report:

‘As far as flood protection is concerned, unlike in England, the 1 in 200 year standard of protection is ‘universal’ for all new buildings, with a 1,000 year standard for such vulnerable uses as old people’s homes, schools, hospitals etc.. In addition, construction in flood hazard areas has almost completely ended. Crichton (2003: 26) estimates that “the active flood management programme currently in progress will result in almost all high risk properties being protected against the 200-year flood within the next three years, taking climate change into account.” It is also interesting to note that the Scottish Executive grants for flood defences have never been refused on the grounds of budget restraints and there is no rationing of flood defence spending. It is clear, however, that the more stringent building standards which are applied in Scotland ensure that severe storms result in much less property damage than comparable events in England. Also the level of flood protection and the commitment of funding to achieve flood protection are higher in Scotland than in England.’

https://twitter.com/scotgov?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

https://www.cem.ac.uk/media/28193/flooding.pdf:

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2016/10/28/flooding-has-scottish-government-done-more-to-keep-our-heads-above-water-2/

This stunningly, embarrassingly, low figure is from a 2017 BMG Research poll, reported on in the Herald on the 11^th February, into the extent to which Scots trust BBC News Reporting not to be biased on Independence. I only accessed the full BMG report yesterday but it’s worth looking at it from a different perspective to the Herald. It’s a massive rejection of a public (funded) service broadcaster (PSB) perhaps unparalleled in the Western democracies. An international review of 23 academic studies (ref below) in 2016 found: ‘The studies reviewed tend to point towards a net positive impact of public service media when it comes to trust…’ So trust is strongly associated with PSBs and expected of them but clearly this is not the case for younger Scots and BBC News.

I could also have headlined accurately like this:

Less than 1 in 4 Scots trust BBC Scotland News Reporting on Independence

I could also have written accurately:

Only 23% of Scots trust BBC News on Independence

On the 11^th February, The Herald went for this headline:

One in three Scots think BBC biased against independence

You can see the one the Herald chose is the least bad for the BBC but it’s still not good. Remember many of these people are paying for the same BBC service they clearly distrust.

Compare any of these figures with the 73% of people who trust the Scottish government ‘just about always’ or ’most of the time’ to act in Scotland’s best interest. It’s a stark contrast between a trusted government and the broadcaster reporting on it.

The BMG research was based on online data collection so is more reliable than landline telephone data collection. There’s a reference below to an older piece explaining why. The last BMG report which suggested a very encouraging 49% Yes vote for independence prior to any campaigning was also based on online data collection.

This was the BMG method:

‘A representative sample of 1,067 Scots aged 16+ were asked: “to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? – “The BBC tends to report news that is biased against the cause for Scottish independence”.’

BMG concluded:

‘The polling gives an indication that the BBC, one of Britain’s most popular and trusted media organisations, may be facing both a political and a generational divide in Scotland. In the eyes of younger and pro-independence Scots the BBC’s reputation for unbiased and objective reporting may be called into question. With the prospect of another independence referendum still looming, the debates surrounding the BBC’s impartiality, is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.’

It’s only a matter of time.

Sources:

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/herald-bmg-poll-one-third-scots-think-bbc-biased/

http://en.ejo.ch/research/what-we-do-and-dont-know-about-public-service-media

http://www.scotcen.org.uk/media/1123186/ssa-15-attitudes-to-government-nhs-economy-and-standard-of-living.pdf

© telegraph.co.uk

Though most of the mainstream media are giving space to Theresa’s call for the Scottish voters to reject Indyref2 by voting Tory in the local elections coming up, two stories have avoided such delusional notions and correctly spotted the fear that lies behind such calls.

Today, Europe Breaking News responding to a Times article (I can’t seem to trace it online) based on the usual ‘a source’ saying:

“Allowing one [a referendum] could lead to the break-up of the UK. Do you really want to take the risk on a 50/50 coin toss?” 

The Europe Breaking News report is headed:

‘Downing Street fears second Scottish independence referendum after Article 50 is triggered’

Essentially, the piece argues that if May triggers the Brexit process next month, Sturgeon will leap to announce a second Scottish Independence Referendum knowing that May will be unlikely to risk a ‘constitutional crisis’ by refusing permission,.

Better still, the Daily Mail detects fear too. Here’s their headline:

‘Theresa May fears the Scottish government will call another independence referendum as she triggers the formal Brexit process.’

Ever expert in detecting fear, the Mail writes:

‘In a sign of nerves in No10, the premier has urged voters in Scotland to use May’s council elections to make clear to Ms Sturgeon that they do not want another independence referendum.’

They go on to identify the same likely actions by Sturgeon once May invokes Article 50 and characterise it as a ‘huge gamble’ for the PM with some recent polls showing only a very small margin in favour or remaining in the UK.

I’ve already written about the BMG poll suggesting 49% for Yes and arguing for its greater accuracy than others:

‘Why the 49% supporting independence in today’s BMG poll may be more accurate and much more optimistic than other recent polls suggesting a wider gap.’

In the above, I concluded:

‘So based on the above evidence this recent 49% might well be pretty accurate. Why does that make me optimistic? I guess it’s obvious to many of you. To start a campaign for a Yes vote in the next referendum from a starting point of almost equivalence would be a dream for us Yessers. Think of the extra nearly 200 000 16 years of age plus voters who have arrived on the scene since September 2014. More important, think of all the feet shoved sideways in Tory politicians’ mouths over the next few years. They can’t hide their contempt for us. They’re going to feed us so much evidence we’d be better apart. Think of all the non-native but welcome Scots who now know all too well what the English Tories think of them and their right to stay in the UK. Think of all the Union-first Labour supporters who voted Tory recently who find out just what that is going to mean for their employment rights, their families and their unemployed or disabled friends. They’ll be back.’

https://www.europebreakingnews.net/2017/02/downing-street-fears-second-scottish-independence-referendum-after-article-50-is-triggered/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4262660/PM-fears-Scottish-government-call-second-referendum.html#ixzz4Zt6Q2tfM 

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/08/why-the-49-supporting-independence-in-todays-bmg-poll-may-be-more-accurate-and-much-more-optimistic-than-other-recent-polls-suggesting-a-wider-gap/

© wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons

I’m a wee bit late netting this good news story. A report from the NAFC Marine Centre which is part of the University of the Highlands and Islands, published on 24^th January, concludes:

‘Two general trends are apparent from the whitefish data:

¨ The spawning stock biomasses (SSB) of most whitefish stocks have increased since the mid-2000s, in some cases by substantial amounts.

¨ The fishing mortality rates (F) for all the species covered have declined since the mid-2000s, again by substantial amounts in some cases. Although the sizes of some stocks (such as cod and haddock) remain below levels seen in the past, stocks of others (such as plaice and hake) are at historic highs.’

With one exception, Haddock, ten other whitefish species are increasing in estimated biomass and in the case of three, the increase is dramatic.

In the case of cod, the increase has been four-fold from under 50 000 tons in 2006 to around 170 000 in 2016. In the same time period, Plaice biomass has increased from around 240 000 tonnes to approaching 1 million tonnes! Again in the same period, Hake has increased from around 40 000 tonnes to more than 300 000 tonnes and still climbing.

Looking at the aggregate figures for the North Sea, again from 2006 to 2016, total biomass has grown from less than 400 000 tonnes to 1.2 million tonnes and is still climbing. This is the highest figure since 1963!

Looking at the combined North Sea and West of Scotland situation the report states:

‘The combined biomass in 2016 [approaching 2 million tonnes] was more than 2.5 times greater than that in 2001, more than 80% larger than the average over the preceding 35 years, and larger than at any time since at least 1981. A straight trend-line fitted through the SSB data shows an overall upward trend over the last 35 years.’

In the Press & Journal, the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation chief commented:

‘We are delighted this report confirms the general trend of increasing fish stocks in Scottish waters. Much of this recovery can be attributed to the innovation of our fishermen in developing more selective types of fishing gear and pioneering other initiatives such as real-time area closures. With Brexit looming, our fishermen can look to the future with real confidence. This steady and hard-won recovery must be nurtured and continued.’

https://www.nafc.uhi.ac.uk/research/publications/fish-stats/trends-in-scottish-fish-stocks.pdf

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/scotland-business/1155879/key-scottish-fish-stocks-in-rude-health/

© cardekho.com

I’ve already reported on the Third Wave of prosperity for Scotland’s oil and gas sector. Look away Greens. I’ve reported on the SNP government initiatives and the hedge funds (refs below).

CNBC reported on 13^th February:

‘Global demand for oil could outdo the 10-year average in 2017 as the health of the world economy improves and demand for road transport continues to grow, OPEC said in the report. The new data from the oil cartel Monday expects demand to grow at 1.2 million barrels per day, up slightly from an earlier estimate and “well above” the 1 million barrel a day averages seen in the past decade.’

Much of this demand will come from the US and the developing world where improving living standards and a growing middle class are driving a massive growth in demand for oil. China and India with their massive populations are the key drivers with India’s oil demand now expected, according to Platts, to grow by 7-8% in 2017, with no sign of faltering,  and to eclipse China’s for the third year running.

Of course, real experts could foresee this in the midst of the slump as UK media pundits gloated over Scotland’s misfortune. In August 2016, Forbes reported:

‘Global Oil Demand Can Only Increase’

‘While incremental annual gains obviously vary, there is nothing more assured than increasing global oil demand. The steady drumbeat of more people, making more money, using more oil may be boring to some, but it is also perhaps our most fundamental energy reality. The world now consumes 95 million b/d of oil, up from 86 million b/d in 2008 and an 11% rise even amid the worst economic times since the 1930s. And we know that there is so much more to come: oil is the world’s primary fuel, oil is the enabling force of globalization, and 85% of the global population lives in undeveloped nations still waiting for their chance to consume oil like we rich Westerners do. Just imagine the future: every day, for instance, the average American consumes 25 times more oil than the average Indian, and India has four times more people!’

I know renewables are the future and we want a bit less globalisation but Indyref2 needs no easily exploitable weaknesses.

Sources:

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/14/north-sea-oil-and-gas-is-on-the-crest-of-a-third-wave-and-the-snp-government-is-already-supporting-plans-for-it/

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/23/hedge-funds-bet-big-on-oil/

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/oil-demand-set-to-outdo-10-year-average-in-2017-opec.html

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/singapore/outlook-2017-indias-oil-demand-growth-rate-to-27748998

https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2016/08/28/global-oil-demand-can-only-increase/#f297d5931a05