Talking-up Scotland

In a parliamentary question, yesterday Miles Briggs asked:

To ask the Scottish Government how many alcohol-related hospital admissions there have been in each of the last five years, also broken down NHS board.

You can find the board breakdowns at the link below, but for Scotland as a whole the figures are:

• 2013/14           39 718
• 2014/15            38 186
• 2015/16            38 278
• 2016/17            39 023
• 2017/18            38 153

Click to access WA20190710.pdf

Those being treated are also being treated quickly:

Waiting time targets for drug and alcohol treatment smashed in NHS Scotland

BBC Complaint: Radio 4: The Invention of Britain: Like Quicksand for the Uninitiated

The complaints website is down but I’ll submit this later.

06:26 in, Dermot McCulloch, referring to England existing in the 10^th or 11^th Century says:

‘There wasn’t even really a place called Scotland.’

This is inaccurate:

This culminated in the rise of Cínaed mac Ailpín (Kenneth MacAlpin) as “king of the Picts” in the 840s (traditionally dated to 843),^[3] which brought to power the House of Alpin.^[4] When he died as king of the combined kingdom in 900 one of his successors,Domnall II (Donald II), was the first man to be called rí Alban (King of Alba).^[5] The term Scotia would increasingly be used to describe the heartland of these kings, north of the River Forth, and eventually the entire area controlled by its kings would be referred to as Scotland.^[6]

Sources:

3. B. Webster, Medieval Scotland: the Making of an Identity(St. Martin’s Press, 1997), ISBN0333567617, p. 15.
4. B. Yorke, The Conversion of Britain: Religion, Politics and Society in Britain c.600–800(Pearson Education, 2006), ISBN 0582772923, p. 54.
5. A. O. Anderson, Early Sources of Scottish History, A.D. 500 to 1286(General Books LLC, 2010), vol. i, ISBN1152215728, p. 395.
6. Webster, Medieval Scotland, p. 22.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Scotland#Origins:_400%E2%80%93943

Why was McCulloch, a non-historian, allowed to make such an error? Why was this statement not checked? Perhaps York and Anderson are too recent for him to be expected to have read? He has previous on Anglocentric views of history. His ridiculous BBC documentary on the Battle of Britain ignored the Clydebank Blitz. I complained about it and he was indignant in the manner of a pompous bishop.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0002rmj

 

 

From news.gov.scot today:

Children and young people across Scotland will benefit from funding of £1.7 million to support health boards deliver new standards for weight management services. The investment comes after NHS Health Scotland published standards for weight management services for under 18-year-olds, to ensure quality and equal access to provision across the country. The funding is part of the Scottish Government’s ambition to halve childhood obesity by 2030 and significantly reduce diet-related health inequalities.

https://news.gov.scot/news/additional-funding-for-diet-and-healthy-weight-services

This is a third initiative which is expected to add to the effects of previous examples which have produced results putting Scotland on a more positive path to that being experienced in England and Wales where the obesity ‘crisis’ shows little sign of being dealt with.

Recent per-reviewed research suggesting that the obesity problem in Scotland is being reduced by Scottish Government action and this in turn casts doubt on their conclusions about cancer here.

TWO studies not based on mere estimates suggest very strongly that the prospects are different in Scotland:

First, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, reported in the Independent on 26^th May 2018:

‘Under current trends it is predicted that 11 per cent of the population in Wales will be morbidly obese in 2035, roughly 340,000 adults, while Scotland is likely to plateau at about 5 per cent and England will rise to about 8 per cent.’

The researchers offer a surprisingly clear, confident and simple explanation for the significantly slower growth in Scotland – Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation:

‘The government put a massive push on developing a route map for how we can actually combat this. They put together resources from the NHS that were proving to be effective. They did put a lot of work into it.’

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/morbid-obesity-double-britain-poverty-education-employment-study-a8369731.html

Second, From Growing Up in Scotland: Overweight and Obesity at Age 10:

‘Historic data from the survey shows that the prevalence of overweight [in Scotland] including obesity remained relatively stable between 1998 and 2016, fluctuating between 28% and 33%. However, in recent years levels of obesity have shown a steady decline dropping from 17% in 2014. This is largely due to a decline in obesity amongst boys which have dropped from 20% in 2012 to 12% in 2017 [40%].’

‘The results are broadly comparable with similar UK research. For example, analysis of data from the Millennium Cohort Study showed that the proportion of healthy, overweight and obese 5-year olds becoming or remaining obese by age 11 were 6%, 32% and 68% respectively (Mead et al, 2016). Comparative figures from analysis of administrative data from the National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP)13 in England were 8%, 43% and 77% (Copley et al, 2017).’

So, compared to England, 25% fewer healthy 5-year-olds becoming obese by 11 in Scotland. Similarly, 25% fewer overweight 5-year-olds becoming obese and 12% fewer obese 5-year-olds remaining obese.

This study also attributes credit to Scottish Government policy initiatives:

‘Food available in and around schools has also been a focus of policy aimed at improving children’s diets. Legislation requiring local authorities to ensure schools provide food and drink of an appropriate nutritional standard has been in place since 2007 with accompanying guidance’

‘Progress towards achieving the goal of a more active population has been made through a range of activities in recent years including the implementation of the National Walking Strategy (Scottish Government, 2014c), the Cycling Action Plan (Scottish Government, 2017b), the Active Schools programme8, Community Sports Hubs9 and the Legacy 2014 Physical Activity Fund. Of particular relevance for children and young people is the Scottish Government’s commitment to expanding the Daily Mile11 to ensure that Scotland becomes the first ‘Daily Mile nation’ with roll out to nurseries, schools, colleges, universities and workplaces. Recent research results suggest the Daily Mile is effective at increasing levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), reducing sedentary time, increasing physical fitness and improving body composition.’

https://www.gov.scot/publications/growing-up-scotland-overweight-obesity-age-10/

 

According to the Environment Agency reported on the BBC UK website yesterday:

[In England] there were 56 serious pollution incidents last year [2018], rising from 52 in 2017, the agency’s annual report said. Only one of the nine major water companies in England is performing at the expected level, with most likely to miss 2020 targets, the agency added. The report follows the agency’s announcement that Southern Water is facing prosecution after it was hit with a record £126m penalty package over “shocking” failures in its sewage treatment sites.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-48934421

Meanwhile in Scotland, according to SEPA

In 2017, for the first time in a number of years, Scottish Water was not responsible for any category 1, serious pollution incidents.

https://consultation.sepa.org.uk/sector-plan/water-waste-water-treatment/user_uploads/water_supply_and_waste-water_sector_plan_draft_annex.pdf

A report in Open Democracy attributes the situation in England to privatisation:

The dire state of our rivers is just one of the many, many failures of water and sewerage privatisation. It is just one example of what happens when we hand over not just time-limited contracts for delivering water and sewerage services, but the actual assets themselves – the pipes, the infrastructure – to private companies to milk for profit.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/when-we-own-it-public-ownership-water-21st-century/

 

Clustered together here on the website but dominating the TV broadcast headlines over the last three days, this very selective picture of Scotland can only dampen the spirits and we know that dampened spirits don’t vote for change. Often, they don’t vote at all, leaving the 20% of Scots who don’t really give a damn about anyone else to vote Tory.

Here’s England today in the BBC mind:

Bad news too but less gut-wrenching and less suggestive of a failed community.

Six times this morning, we heard:

‘Campaigners who’ve spent months opposing a development in Leith say the planning system is failing communities across Scotland. The Scottish Government is considering an appeal from a developer after Edinburgh council rejected plans for a hotel and student accommodation in Leith Walk. Opponents argue the appeal process is one-sided. They say the evictions of businesses from the building earmarked for demolition highlights the imbalance. Ministers insist new legislation makes the planning system more effective and gives the public more say.’

This is clearly a complex one which should not have been attempted in such limited time and repeated throughout the morning. It required us to see who the ‘campaigners’ and ‘opponents’ are, to judge their motivations. We needed to see what the development would look like. We needed to see what ‘businesses’ were threatened and hear how their importance might be judged against potential benefits of the new build. We, especially, needed to know how the campaigners justify the accusation of failure across Scotland, if, of course, they did actually say that.

The report, no surprise, does not meet the BBC’s own editorial guidelines:

This means all BBC output, as appropriate to its subject and nature, must be well sourced, based on sound evidence, and corroborated. We should be honest and open about what we don’t know and avoid unfounded speculation. Claims, allegations, material facts and other content that cannot be corroborated should normally be attributed.

Any proposal to rely on a single unnamed source making a serious allegation or to grant anonymity to a significant contributor making a serious allegation must be referred to Director Editorial Policy and Standards and Programme Legal Advice.

https://www.bbc.com/editorialguidelines/guidelines/accuracy

(c) TARGET Careers

From the Scottish Government:

Latest recruitment figures show that 89% of all medical training posts in Scotland are currently filled – the highest level for five years at this stage in recruitment. Foundation training places – for the two years post-medical school – are currently 99% full. The speciality areas of clinical radiology, paediatrics and general surgery show 100% fill rates.  In core psychiatry, 41 of the 57 posts advertised have been filled – a rate of 72%. The Scottish Government is working with the Royal College of Psychiatrists, health boards and medical schools to ensure this rate continues to improve.

You’ll remember BBC Scotland’s scare stories on, especially, the above two specialisms:

I feel sure Notreporting Scotland will be excited by these developments.

https://news.gov.scot/news/rise-in-medical-trainee-recruitment

Evidence of greater staffing:

AFTER SNP policies Scotland has 30% more doctors than England BUT BBC Scotland find a Stoneyburn wifie who….

New fun for researcher as qualified doctor staffing is up almost 20% under SNP!

Six consecutive years of NHS Scotland staffing growth

 

(c) Sunday Post

Note: This is out of my comfort zone, so I welcome comment and correction.

A statement from Labour/Conservative North Lanarkshire Council insists:

Specialist doctors from the public health department of NHS Lanarkshire have confirmed that no incidence of cancer is linked to the schools. They have also confirmed that no other serious illness is connected to the schools or the site on which they are built.

We don’t get to see the evidence and the occurrence of bladder cancer in four teachers still rings alarm bells. One said:

I kept hearing the phrase ‘there is no significant risk to health’ – so what are four teachers with the same bladder cancer if they are not significant?

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/14343/environmental-health-expert-north-lanarkshire-council-may-have-breached-who-charter

His confusion is not surprising. The school, Buchanan High in Coatbridge, opened in November 2012 on a site used by the former Gartsherrie Iron Works. Metal workers are known to have a higher incidence of bladder cancer due to exposure to polycystic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in their working environment. See these sources:

Also, at high risk for bladder cancer and death from the disease were those exposed to heavy metals, diesel and combustion products. People working around toxins called polycystic aromatic hydrocarbons were at heightened risk, the study found. People exposed to these potential carcinogens include metal workers.

https://www.webmd.com/cancer/bladder-cancer/news/20151008/risk-of-bladder-cancer-rising-for-workers-in-many-industries#1

Metal workers, machinists, transport equipment operators and miners are among the major occupations contributing to occupational bladder cancer in men in Western Europe. In this population one in 10 to one in 20 cancers of the bladder can be attributed to occupation.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14750529

Occupations in which PAH exposure is associated with an excess bladder cancer risk include painters, machinists, aluminium processing, other metal workers, workers in the textile industry, leather workers and shoemakers, printers, hairdressers and transport workers.

http://www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr595ann5.pdf

While there is no mention of PAHs risk in the text of the 10 ‘ground contamination risk assessment’ reports for NLC they do appear near the bottom and middle of this diagram, just below/in contact with, a ‘moderately permeable aquifer’ (underground layer of water-bearing permeable rock) from ‘Ground contamination detailed quantitative risk assessment report part 1’:

https://eplanning.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/online-applications/files/A19A86E447DB5A6EA1C752034DEFB7D8/pdf/09_00818_FUL-GROUND_CONTAMINATION_DETAILED_QUANTITATIVE_RISK_ASSESSMENT_REPORT_PART_1-113771.pdf

PAHs are also referred to 4 times in Ground contamination detailed quantitative risk assessment report part 2 sampling:

WSPE has reviewed the analytical results in the appendices and approximates actual sampling delivery as follows: – Soils: 57 samples submitted to laboratory, with 41 analysed for metals/inorganics, 36 for TPH, 41 for PAHs, and 3 for VOCs. (page 3)

Leachates: 17 soil samples analysed for leachable metals/inorganics and PAHs, 15 analysed for TPH. (page 3)

Groundwater: 10 samples all analysed for metals/inorganics, PAHs, and TPH. (page 3)

However, the report’s findings do not mention PAHs again and conclude:

In assessing risks to human health, URS considered that the majority of the soil exceedances occurred at depths greater than 1m in depth and were thus too deep to allow direct contact/ingestion and not a risk for the final development. For those exceedances noted within 1m of surface (arsenic, lead, nickel, and benzo(a)pyrene), URS reported that these were marginal exceedances, and note that the screening values used (representing residential end-use) are most likely over-conservative for school use. URS reports that all exceedances of residential screening values are less than screening values representing a commercial/industrial end-use. Direct contact from groundwater is not expected due to recorded depths.

https://eplanning.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/online-applications/files/BD2CB5D09161300E103042495939B647/pdf/09_00818_FUL-GROUND_CONTAMINATION_DETAILED_QUANTITATIVE_RISK_ASSESSMENT_REPORT_PART_2-113772.pdf

So, I’m reading this to mean they did find PAHs but that they were, in their opinion, too deep to matter even though they were just under moving water?

Note: Labour has been in control of North Lanarkshire council or its equivalent since time began.

Note: The contractor Balfour Beatty is not accused here of any corrupt practice but has been elsewhere:

Here’s what the same report from the Health and Safety Executive (page 9) has to say about these statistics:

It is worth noting that in 2018/19, there was a sharp increase in the number of worker deaths in Scotland. However, this increase can possibly be explained by natural variation in the figures and at this stage does not indicate any statistically significant change.

In terms of fatal injury rate, England consistently has a lower injury rate than either Scotland or Wales. However, injury rates are strongly influenced by variations in the mix of industries and occupations. The country injury rate does not make allowance for the varying composition of the workforce between the three home nations. A previous analysis of rates adjusted for industry composition by both country and region within England can be found at http://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/adhoc-analysis/standardised-fatals.pdf . This analysis shows that after standardising fatal injury rates by industry, Wales and Scotland have a fatal injury rate that is not statistically significantly different from the GB rate.

http://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/pdf/fatalinjuries.pdf

Put simply Scotland has a large, disproportionate, number of workers in the higher risk industries such as offshore oil, fishing and forestry.

Further, what about the percentages, eh? There’s nothing like a percentage to spoil a tabloid heading. There are 2,685,000 in employment in Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-47283214

So that’s 0.00108% of Scottish workers.

 

I’m not giving that mouth-to-mouth!

As the two candidates for Chief Dragon arrived in Scotland to tell us, creepily, that they will never let us go, New Labour Sarah said, last night:

‘The Tories in Scotland have enjoyed something of a resurgence in recent years. They need a new leader who won’t do anything to reverse those gains. Their top priority ins a leader who won’t increase support for Scottish independence.’

So, Sarah, this resurgence? In recent years?

The complete wipe-out and third-place in the EU elections?

The SNP came in a clear first with 37.7% of the vote followed by the Brexit Party with 14.8%. Next was the Lib Dems with 13.8%, after that the Conservatives with 11.6%. Labour recorded 9.3% of the vote and the Scottish Greens came in with 8%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48424055

The recent opinion polls?

YouGov today based on 138 adults with fieldwork on 2^nd and 3^rd July:

• Con 15%
• Lab 10%
• Lib 11%
• SNP 45%
• Brexit 10%
• Green 8%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/o8pit1boew/TheTimes_190703_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

YouGov with a sub-poll of 177 adults, on 24^th to 25^th June 2019:

• Con 14%
• Lab 7%
• LibD 13%
• SNP 43%
• Brexit 7%
• Green 9%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qqv5xpbu20/TheTimes_190625_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

The dark money funding, the groping, the splits……..