Talking-up Scotland

Picture: Scotland Food & Drink

Scottish food and drink exports grew by 9% or £119 million in the first half of 2017 bringing the half-year total to £2.5 billion. Again, from gov.scot, yesterday:

• Food exports increased by 24% to £770 million
• Scottish whisky exports grew £57 million (up 3%) to £1.8 billion
• Fish and seafood exports are up 38% to £459 million
• The EU accounted for 69% of all food exports

The Head of Food and Drink at Scottish Development International, said:

‘Scotland’s extensive larder of natural, high quality products continues to drive global appetite for our food and drink exports.  The Scotland Food & Drink in-market specialists in our top prospect markets are opening doors for Scottish companies with high end retailers, luxury hotels, leading chefs and distributors to help drive this growth, while our recent Showcasing Scotland event attracted 100 international buyers from 16 countries to meet with 140 food & drink businesses in Scotland, creating significant new export opportunities’.   

https://news.gov.scot/news/food-and-drink-exports-hit-half-year-high

I was able to make the claim below on the basis of only the first three months of the year, so given the above figures, the 28% may be an understatement.

With only 8% of the population, Scotland accounts for more than 28% of UK food and drink exports. Too wee to survive on our own?

From the Baltic to Canada? Why am I singing the tune from the Proclaimers’s ‘Letter from America’?

We’ve already seen the First Minister on trips to connect us up with Scandinavia, Ireland, the Baltic and even the Arctic Circle countries. See:

SNP Government making new links to North and East in preparation for Brexit failures by UK Government

This is clearly part of an attempt to do what can be done in anticipation of the hard Brexit we’re told will hit Scotland particularly hard:

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15590683.Chilling_reading_as_Scottish_businesses_air_their_Brexit_concerns/

The only positive anticipated is that the damage will ‘drive up the Yes vote.’ See:

http://www.businessforscotland.com/brexit-damage-scotlands-economy-will-drive-yes-vote/

However, according to gov.scot:

‘Economy Secretary Keith Brown will visit Ottawa, Toronto, New Jersey and New York next week to promote Scotland to the North American business community, and strengthen diplomatic ties with both countries. The visit will focus on promoting trade and investment between Scotland and North America, boosting tourism, promoting Scottish innovation and entrepreneurship and showcasing the food and drink sector. Canada is one of Scotland’s top inward investors, with approximately 3,600 people in Scotland employed by Canadian owned businesses. The USA is Scotland’s second largest export partner – worth £4.56 billion a year, making up 15.9% of all international exports.’

The report also points out that Scottish exports to Canada are worth £470 million and that the USA is Scotland’s top source of inward investment with 36% of our inward investment projects.

https://news.gov.scot/news/economy-secretary-visits-us-and-canada

 

(c) Getty Images

As wild-fires race across California, killing 40 and leaving 300 unaccounted for, Governor Jerry Brown said: ‘It’s a horror that no one could have imagined.’ but I know someone who could and did imagine this kind of thing decades ago yet has been ignored.

‘Ecology of Fear: Los Angeles and the Imagination of Disaster’

Mike Davis, a self-educated, Marxist, former abattoir worker and driver wrote ‘Ecology of Fear: Los Angeles and the Imagination of Disaster’ in 1998.  In it he said there are two kinds of climates – ‘high frequency/low intensity’ and ‘low frequency/high intensity’ and that it matters a lot which you live in or move to.

Scots and Northern, even some Central and Southern Europeans, have lived in a ‘high frequency/low intensity’ climate for centuries, where it’s never the same from one day to the next but, also, it’s never very extreme. At worst we get a few storms and localised floods. Few die. Some parts of the world, especially, California, Florida and the Caribbean, Southern Spain and South Australia have ‘low frequency/high intensity climates where it’s calm, warm and dry for days, weeks, months, sometimes years but where, rarely but devastatingly, they get tornadoes, hurricanes, flash floods because the ground surface is too hard to drain and wild-fires because the vegetation is so dry. They also, not surprisingly suffer water shortages, droughts, even desertification. See this map for growing desertification in Europe:

© wikileaks.org

Notice South-East England?

These latter regions had small, knowledgeable, nomadic populations surviving quite well before the mass arrival of Europeans in the 19^th and 20^th centuries, drawn by the ‘low frequency’ part of the climate but used to the ‘low intensity’ climates where they and their immediate ancestors originated. They have no cultural memory of the intense events and when these come, they seem extreme and abnormal but they are actually normal just very infrequent.

Now in the 21^st Century, these high intensity events seem to be increasing due to climate change and I wonder, when do the populations in these areas decide enough is enough and want to move back to somewhere admittedly boring but safer? When this happens, does Scotland become more appealing than it current population could imagine.

Footnote: Mike Davis also wrote Victorian Holocausts which is a disturbing reminder of one of the the many horrors of the British Empire, unknown to most Brits yet absent from our school curricula. A young German referred me to this book and pointed out that he had been obliged to visit the death camps to make sure he knew what his people had been capable of. He knew, of course, that our children visit the same death camps to learn how horrible Germans had been but never learn of the millions dead in colonial India or, indeed, of the massacres by British troops across the globe.

 

Readers and contributors might be interested to see how this wee blog is read globally. We’re not in the same league as Wings over Scotland but averaging around 2 000 reads per day; probably less discrete visitors. However, I can’t help looking at the map and the list below now and then. I get figures for each post too but not linked to the countries where they were read. World conquest in a very faded yellow and readers from the most unusual of places? I guess they’re mainly ex-pats living there but still interested in Scottish politics though some might be locals interested in autonomy for the regions they live in. I like to think so. Anyhow, I hope this does not inhibit contributors but, rather, inspires them. Watch your spelling and grammar though! They’re watching us.

 

 

Featured Images VIA, PA and Getty

Floating wind farms are being piloted across the globe but Scotland is first to get a working farm of any real size operating, off the choppy coast of Aberdeenshire. The First Minister will open it if she’s not throwing up over the side of the launch at the time.

The well-named Hywind farm will generate enough energy for around 20 000 homes and sits in deep water about just over 15 miles out so not likely to spoil the view from any millionaire’s golf course. This is actually quite a small farm relative to others being built at the moment. See these:

1. EDP floating offshore windfarm, Moray coast – 750 000 homes.
2. Beatrice, Moray coast, floating offshore windfarm – 450 000 homes,
3. 45MWh Neart na Goithe off Fife – 325 000 homes
4. 50MWh Kincardineshire floating offshore farm – 500 000 homes.
5. Pentland Firth tidal energy plant – 700 000 homes

You’ll remember from previous reports that Scotland has 25% of Europe’s wind energy and probably as much of its tidal energy (West coast of Ireland must have a lot too?). In addition, we have more than our share, I think, of the expertise needed to develop wind-farms on or off-shore. See:

Is Scotland as the ‘Saudi of wind’ concept getting more real? ‘Wind and waves?’ Solar too?

Scotland’s expertise in renewable power generation now worth billions

My preference for opening the floating wind-farm would have been the Duke of Edinburgh. Aberdeenshire is surely in his patch what with his wife’s big house up that way. He might fall overboard at his age? Oh, I suppose we wouldn’t want that to happen would we?

This is taken from a comment below one of my articles, by Derick Tulloch. It far surpasses my starter for information value so I wanted it to get more profile by posting it separately.

If we go into Indyref2 (or an independence election) on an EU premise. We. Will. Lose.

The biggest advantage of EFTA/EEA is a political one. It offers both the 12% who have moved from No to Yes because of Brexit AND the 11% who have moved from Yes to No because they want independence but not EU membership, something positive to vote for.

There is no point going into a referendum on a premise – the EU – that pretty much guarantees that we will lose. Yes support is not 62%.

Second, accession to EFTA is much simpler and faster than re-joining the EU.

Accession is via Article 56 of the EFTA Convention, “any State may accede to the Convention provided that the EFTA Council decides to approve its accession.” That’s it. Iceland, Norway, Lichtenstein and Switzerland, meeting in the EFTA Council must agree our membership. There is no ‘Spanish Veto’, or UK veto, or French veto for that matter. They are not members. The EFTA Council meets 10 times a year. Pre-negotiate terms and we’d be in within a month of independence.

As with EU membership it’s necessary to join the EEA to get the benefits of the single market. Re-joining from within EFTA after we are independent, and with the backing of the Four is a much more do-able prospect than to go straight to EU membership. The EEA meet twice a year. Potentially we would be back in within six months.

By contrast re-joining the EU, even if the various hostile states do not veto that, would take a minimum of 3 years after independence. After which there would be the six months or so to re-join the EEA. Too long to be out of the single market.

Scotland is a very good fit for the EFTA four. We share interests in fisheries, renewable energy, financial services to name but three. Our membership would strengthen and stabilise EFTA. Look up the extent of the territorial waters of Iceland, Scotland and Norway – the NW Atlantic and most of the North Sea. Look up the proportion of Europe’s total renewable and geothermal energy resource in Iceland, Scotland, Norway and Switzerland. We have selling points for them, to approve our membership.

EFTA/EEA offers all the advantages of EU membership for individuals and businesses, including freedom of movement, participation in ERASMUS and Horizon 2020 etc. and various EEA programmes which the EFTA states choose to participate in. http://www.efta.int/eea/eu-programmes, without the downside

There is input to EU policies via the EEA shaping agreements. Arguably that is as much influence as any small EU member has. With EFTA strengthened by Scottish membership, it’s influence is also strengthened. http://www.efta.int/eea/decision-shaping

There is no requirement for political integration in EFTA as there is with the EU, no requirement to commit to joining the common currency, no ‘convergence criteria’ and no requirement to conform to the EU common foreign policy. Which is why Iceland was able to recognise the independence of the Baltic States, before the EU did. And why Switzerland was free, last week, to offer to mediate between Catalonia and Spain.

EFTA gives more flexibility on fishing and agriculture, with neither Norway nor Iceland being in the Common Fisheries Policy, but also having market access to the EEA. Fisheries is a minor sector of the Scottish economy. The related seabed and associated oil reserves and tidal resources are not. We have to bring the fishing communities with us.

Independence in Europe is a must have. But we don’t have to be in the EU to be ‘in Europe’

(c) endbbclicencefee.wordpress.com 2015

This is taken from a comment below one of my articles, by Ludo Thierry. It far surpasses my starter for information value so I wanted it to get more profile by posting it separately.

Kulaprahba’s calculations (another contributor) are borne out by no less an authority than the House of Commons Library which very recently produced a report (info below):

Estimated TV licence evasion rate was between 6.2% and 7.2% in 2015/16: The highest evasion rate (10%) was recorded in Scotland. The evasion rate in Northern Ireland stood at 9%. In England and Wales, the evasion rate stood at 6%.

So, we might not be qualifying for major international tournaments in the gents’ footy these days – but, by God, we’re winning the beeb tax licence evasion stakes.

There are a few other beeb licence tax metrics I came across that I hope are interesting.

Search warrants (info from wicki): Information provided by the Scottish Court Service suggests that TV Licensing search warrant applications in Scotland are virtually non-existent. In their response to a FOI request the Scottish Court Service confirmed that no search warrant applications were made to courts in Scotland’s two largest cities, Glasgow and Edinburgh, in the three-and-a-half years between 1 January 2011 and 21 July 2014.

Court action (info from wicki): In 2014, 204,018 people were prosecuted or fined for TV licence offences: 185,580 in England and Wales, (173,044 in England and 12,536 in Wales), 4,905 people in Northern Ireland and 15 in the Isle of Man. In Scotland, there were 13,486 cases disposed of via an out of court fine and 32 prosecuted via the courts in 2013-2014

‘Fines’ (info from wicki): The average fine is £170 in England and Wales, £80 in Northern Ireland, £75 in Scotland (out-of-court disposal)

(Instead of prosecution, in Scotland, TV licence fee evaders are usually asked by the Procurator Fiscal to pay a fiscal fine and a small number are simply given a warning. For example, in 2013-2014, just 10 cases reached the courts whereas 12,969 people were asked to pay a fiscal fine, no action was taken in 275 cases, and 174 people were sent a warning. In addition, 2 people were asked to pay compensation and 1 person was offered the chance to pay a combination of fiscal fine and compensation. In 2013-14, almost all of the fiscal fines (12,603 out of 12,969) were at the level 2 rate of £75)

Imprisonment (info from wicki): In England and Wales, 39 people were given an average of 20 days in 2014 (compared to 32 in 2013 and 51 in 2012). There were no custodial sentences imposed during the 5-year period 2009-10 to 2013-14 in Scotland.

Before we get too impressed at all these metrics demonstrating Scotland to be following a much more enlightened path – let’s just remember who is having the last laugh here (info from Republic of Scotland website below):

Page 55 of the BBC Annual Report and Accounts 2016/17 contains a table showing how many people the BBC employs in different parts of the UK. I have summarised the results for London and Scotland below.

Location % of UK Population % of UK PSB Staff (equivalent full time)
London 13.3% 47%
Scotland 8.3% 7%

London’s population is only 60% greater that Scotland’s but the BBC employs 570% more Londoners that Scots. Also remember that most, if not all, of these London employees will be paid the London weighting subsidy which comes out of the BBC tax.

Good to see La Resistance to the beeb tax is apparently alive and kicking here in Scotland (and that the Scottish legal system seems much less inclined to allow itself to be harnessed as an unpaid (but very costly to the Scottish exchequer) tax collector for the massively overpaid beeb propaganda-mongers).

Footnote: See this from an angry Daily Torygraph in 2016:

‘No Scots jailed for dodging licence fee as calls for scrapping criminal penalties grow louder’

No Scots were jailed for the offence in more than five years due to legal reforms, while thousands from England and Wales are punished

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11809201/No-Scots-jailed-for-dodging-licence-fee-as-calls-for-scrapping-criminal-penalties-grow-louder.html

 

In 2016 the BBC raised £320 million in Scotland but spent only 54.65% of this on Scottish programming. In sharp contrast, they spent 95% of the £177 million they raised in Wales on Welsh programming and in Northern Ireland they spent 74% of the £99 million they raised there, on programming there.

I haven’t seen the details nor a precise statement of what ‘spending on’ means so there may well be get-out clauses for them to still refrain from spending much more on programming in Scotland. They can say, for example, that they’ve spent the money on ‘distribution.’

There’s a wee anomaly in the N Ireland figures. Scotland’s £5.3 million people paid £320 million in licence fees or roughly £60 per head of population. Yet N Ireland’s 1.8 million only paid £99 million or £55 per head of population. That’s £9 million less that you would expect and equates, at £145 per licence, to 62 000 people or, say, 30 000 households. Are there no go areas there for the detector vans too?

At the Arctic Circle conference in Reykjavik, reported in Energy Voice, the First Minister said:

‘Action on climate change is, first and foremost, an overwhelming moral imperative – and Scotland is leading the way internationally in combating it. Yet with Scotland employing almost 60,000 people in low carbon industries, there is still scope for significant further growth. Our northern nation neighbours are obvious partners in this. Scotland is taking an increasingly prominent role in the work of the Arctic Circle Assembly and associated cooperation, and I believe there are clear benefits for us all by forming closer ties. That is why I look forward to welcoming representatives from across the region to the Edinburgh forum next month.’

I’ve already reported on the wider links in the North and East being explored by the SNP as we await Brexit with trepidation, at:

SNP Government making new links to North and East in preparation for Brexit failures by UK Government

Sarah Beattie-Smith of the WWF applauded the First Minister and the SNP Government saying:

‘The First Minister is absolutely right to say that Scotland has a moral imperative to tackle climate change and that there are significant economic opportunities ahead as our country moves towards a low carbon future. The Scottish Government’s upcoming Climate Change Bill is a unique chance to set ambitious new targets and deliver innovative policies that will, once again, put Scotland at the cutting edge of climate action.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/153238/wwf-double-first-ministers-moral-imperative-statement-climate-action/

Earlier this year a survey by the WWF of 1 000 Scots found 76% agreeing that the Scottish government should act to reduce climate change emissions. That figure is up from 67% in 2016

Only Scotland continues to have a substantially positive trade balance, exporting considerably more than she imports and thus having a viable economy. Here are the figures for the last four years:

Deficit/Surplus in 2017

England           -£128 200 000 000

Wales              –£700 000 000

Scotland          +£4 300 000 000

N Ireland         +£1 100 000 000

Deficit/Surplus in 2016

England           -£120 038 000 000

Wales              –£55 000 000

Scotland          +£2 148 000 000

N Ireland         –£4 039 000 000 

£ Deficit/Surplus in 2015

England           -£110 358 000 000

Wales              –£1 600 000 000

Scotland          +£4 124 000 000

N Ireland         –£2 311 00 000

£ Deficit/Surplus in 2014

England           -113 877 000 000

Wales              –£2 544 000 000

Scotland          +7 917 000 000

N Ireland         –£2 106 000 000

I can’t trace the equivalent data for before 2014 but there looks like a wee trend there with England’s trade deficit having cost us billions and consequently having lumbered us with the massive debts which the austerity programme was supposed to clear but could not. I can’t see why we’d leave the Union owing them any share of the UK debt whatsoever when we clearly didn’t incur it.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-regional-trade-statistics-first-quarter-2017