Talking-up Scotland

Reported in Oil & Gas People, on 1st February 2018, a survey of more than 800 executives found 63% confident of growth in 2018 compared with only 32% last year. According to the report:

‘A new optimism is now emerging, driven from a common understanding that cost levels are under control and operators can make reasonable margins from an oil price that is expected to stay lower for much longer.’

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/16017/surge-in-oil-and-gas-industry-confidence/

I presume they meant ‘higher’ not ‘lower’ and by ‘reasonable margins’, they meant ‘healthy margins’ with crude selling at $70pb and costing only $12-15pb to extract. Given the many reports of increased and stable prices along with major discoveries already reported here, I’m surprised the number expressing confidence was not higher. See these:

Scottish oil price rises are unstoppable as hedge funds pile in to invest and put ‘the oil crash behind us.’ Also, Sterling’s surge is being fuelled by oil, not a Brexit bounce .

As profits double will Royal Dutch Shell start paying taxes for Scottish oil again?

Is a third forecast that Scotland’s oil will hit $100 per barrel again, a sure sign?

I suppose industry chiefs are not going to want to appear too bullish in case we start thinking we should be taxing them more.

Nice map suggesting we already have independence and a wall: (c) vice.com

Recent reports have shown Scotland’s crime levels are falling below those of, in particular, England’s larger cities. See, for example:

As knife crime soars in England and Wales and police numbers fall, Police Scotland is staffed at 50% higher level

Scotland’s university cities by far the safest places to send your children

Reported domestic violence in Scotland falls. Is this part of wider change?

Perhaps it’s one of the laws of crime physics when we read of English drug gangs rushing into the apparent void to take over territories in Scotland, like the Mexican and Columbian gangs in the US and East European gangs in Germany and France?

On the STV News website we see:

‘Crack cocaine: Drug is being moved into north east by English gangs. A survey of police forces conducted by Ann Coffey MP has found the use of these lines is linked to extreme violence in England, as well as the exploitation of children as drug runners. Coffey said: “Big organised crime gangs from the major cities in England are seeking to exploit new drug markets in Scotland. It is accompanied by a very high level of violence as gangs seek to territorial rights with knifings, beatings and assaults.”’

Most of these organised crime gangs come from Merseyside and the West midlands. There is little sign of this in the Greater Glasgow area because of the presence of established Scottish-based organised crime gangs already operating there. Try to resist the temptation to cheer at that!

https://stv.tv/news/features/1407264-county-lines-the-english-gangs-running-drugs-into-scotland/

Is this an early sign of one of the unanticipated consequences of Scotland becoming a less violent, less criminal society. Who now wants a hard border? Who now wants to build a wall?

Footnote: Look at Denmark on the map. Is that why they are the happiest in Europe?

The Herald, yesterday, in an anonymous piece, headlined:

‘Alarm as anti-Semitic incidents surge across the UK’

and wrote:

‘Anti-Semitic hate incidents have reached a new record high in the UK, new figures show. A report indicates that the Jewish community was targeted at a rate of nearly four times a day last year. The Community Security Trust (CST), a charity which monitors anti-Semitism, recorded 1,382 anti-Semitic incidents nationwide in 2017.’

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15911154.Anti_semitic_hate_crimes_soar_to_record_high_in_UK/

Clearly with more time on my hands than the reporter, I had a look at the actual report, as opposed to their press release. On page 34, I found that there had been 1 382 incidents in the UK in 2017 up 3% from 1 346 in 2016. So, not much of a surge overall but there had been a 34% increase in physical assaults from 108 in 2016 to 145 in 2017.

On the same page of the report, I found a breakdown revealing that of the 1 382 incidents, only 16 had occurred in Scotland, up 1 from 15 in 2016. With 8% of the population, only 1.15% of all anti-Semitic incidents took place in Scotland.

‘Incidents’ included tweets and shouts from passing cars. In the report, no cases of physical assault in Scotland were reported. Only two examples were offered, one was a tweet and the other was an insult from a shopkeeper angered by Israeli attacks in Gaza. So, there almost certainly had been no physical assaults at all in Scotland

https://cst.org.uk/public/data/file/a/b/IR17.pdf

However, this is a second offence by the Scottish press. The previous example was worse. It was a blatant lie as opposed to just stupid. In July 2017, the Scotsman wrote:

 ‘Hate offences against Jews in Scotland reach worst level on record’

Reading the article in full and you saw that ‘Hate offences against Jews in the UK reach worst level on record’ would’ve been accurate but there was absolutely no evidence of such a spike in Scotland presented anywhere in the piece. The headline was a lie. First-of-all, for the UK as-a-whole, see this:

‘Anti-Semitic crimes recorded by police forces around the UK increased by 14.9 per cent in 2016, according to data provided following Freedom of Information requests. The total of 1,078 offences registered last year compared to 938 in 2015 and 746 in 2014.’

Now, for Scotland:

‘Scotland recorded 26 anti-Semitic incidents [only 15 led to charges] in 2016, with new figures revealing that suspected hate offences targeting Jewish victims UK-wide surged for the third consecutive year to reach the worst level on record.’

So, the surge was UK-wide and no evidence that it was present in Scotland was offered. Indeed, with a little simple arithmetic we saw that the opposite was true.

Scotland’s population was 5.295 million [in mid-2017]. The UK population was 65.14 million. Scotland’s population was therefore 8.13% of the total. So, if the surge to 1 078 cases across the UK was present in Scotland too there would’ve been more than 87 cases in Scotland yet there were only 26 recorded and only 15 charged. So, the Scotsman headline, if honest, should have read something like:

‘Hate offences against Jews in Scotland much less common than in other parts of the UK’

Why didn’t it?

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/hate-offences-against-jews-in-scotland-reach-worst-level-on-record-1-4505157

Footnote: Scotland is one of the few countries in Europe which has never had anti-Jewish pogroms. Indeed, many fled to Scotland to escape Edward 1st’s anti-Jewish pogrom in the Middle Ages.

Here’s what Theresa had to say back in October 2017:

‘It’s time the Scottish Government got on with using its powers [over broadband] for the benefit of the people in Scotland.’

The Scottish government pointed out that Westminster was actually responsible for broadband infrastructure but as recently as December 2017, the Tories were still at it:

‘The SNP must “get real” about the slow rollout of superfast broadband in Scotland, the Digital Minister has said after the industry regulator confirmed it was lagging behind England and Wales.’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/15/digital-minister-tells-snp-get-real-ofcom-says-scotland-behind/

After an extensive analysis in Ferret online magazine concluded:

‘While the Scottish Government has some measure of control over broadband projects, telecommunications including broadband infrastructure are ultimately still reserved by Westminster, limiting the level of decision-making available to Scottish ministers.’

https://theferret.scot/theresa-may-scotland-broadband-powers/

However, it now emerges that Scotland has the highest average broadband speeds in the UK. See this in DIGIT, yesterday, from the Ookla 2018 speed test report:

‘The new Ookla speed-test report shows that Scotland has broadband speeds well above the UK average. Based on the data, which was gathered from more than 25 million fixed broadband tests, Scotland’s average download speed was 70.29 megabits per second (Mbps). This has increased 3.56% over last year, and is 28.6% faster than the UK average as a whole. While England, Northern Ireland and Wales have all seen a small increase in their average speed, they are lagging behind Scotland. England currently remains in line with the country average at 50.41 Mbps, while Wales and Northern Ireland fall behind with 34.75 Mbps and 27.01 Mbps, respectively.’ In Scotland, the Scottish government has committed £600 million in the recent budget, to the R100 programme, which pledges to give every premise in the country superfast (30Mbps) broadband by 2020.

https://digit.fyi/scotland-enjoying-the-fastest-fixed-broadband-in-the-uk/

So, the SNP government has, once more, stepped-in to compensate for Tory incompetence just as it has had to across a range of policy areas, most notably to remedy welfare harshness in examples such as the Bedroom Tax.

(c) Kevin Keane                           (c) BBC (?)

Here’s what yesterday’s announcement by BP looked like in an anonymous (junior reporter?) Herald report yesterday:

‘BP oil find is major boost to North Sea production. Oil giant BP has announced the discovery of what is believed to be a large North Sea field in a boost that could extend production by more than three decades. The firm has made two significant oil finds, one west of Shetland and another in the central North Sea. That should lead to production doubling to 200,000 barrels a day within two years.’

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15907829.BP_oil_find_is_major_boost_to_North_Sea_production/

The BBC reports below are a bit different. I’m sure you’ve guessed already what’s coming or perhaps what’s not coming. First, a quick look at how industry representative, Mark Thomas, BP North Sea regional president, put it in Energy Voice:

‘These are exciting times for BP in the North Sea as we lay the foundations of a refreshed and revitalised business that we expect to double production to 200,000 barrels a day by 2020 and keep producing beyond 2050.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/162345/bp-announced-two-north-sea-exploration-discoveries/

Before, we look at how BBC Scotland reacted, let me add some numbers, to help monetarise the above quantities and justify the optimistic language. BP expect to double production to 200 000 barrels per day so that’s an extra 100 000 barrels. Brent crude is selling above $70 per barrel and prices are expected to rise dramatically in 2018-20. However, sticking with the $70 figure, BP will be earning an extra $7 million per day or $2.55 billion per year and, by 2050 (I know they said ‘beyond’), a total of $81.76 billion plus inflation! Production costs are currently $12-15 per barrel and falling, so the scope for revenue coming to a Scottish treasury is clearly well within the ‘massive’ category. Finally remember this is the revenue from only two fields. See this for more, much more:

£290 billion of tax revenue still in the North Sea and much more to the west of Shetland

Right, steel yourself, it’s time for the BBC Scotland reports. First from the website with ‘Analysis by Kevin Keane, BBC Scotland environment correspondent.’ Why not the business correspondent Douglas Fraser? He usually does (down) oil and gas. Here’s what Kevin had to say with my comments in square brackets and underlined, after each:

 ‘BP announces two North Sea discoveries [just ‘two’, no indication of scale]. BP says the discoveries could [experts ‘expect’] lead to a major expansion of its North Sea production. BP said in 2017 it hoped [experts ‘expect’]to double North Sea oil production to 200,000 barrels by 2020 [no mention of beyond 2050] through a range of projects. In the grand scheme of things, this isn’t a big find [no mention by BP, expert, or reliable source for this claim]. BP has given no indication how much oil and gas it expects from these two wells [a lie-‘doubling to 200 000’ so just divide by 2?], but the mood music suggests it will be small to moderate [What mood music? From whom?]. Any development will most likely be tagged to existing infrastructure. What this speaks to though is the broader outlook for an industry which has been in the doldrums [relevance?]. When times are bad [relevance?], oil companies halt the financial gamble of searching for more “black-stuff” and concentrate on the production that makes them money. Exploration has been virtually non-existent since the oil price crashed and confidence for the future has been low [gross exaggeration and not sourced]. But this, and some other recent discoveries, are clear indicators that the bottom has been hit. The oil price is relatively high [‘relatively’? – passing $70pb from $27.67 in January 2016] and the government has made some supportive changes to the tax structure. Boom time? Not a bit of it [evidence?]. This is an industry which wants to be seen as lean and frugal. But is is clearly on a purposefully [evidence?] slow bounce back.’

Stunning isn’t it? Propaganda at its least subtle and he’s not finished yet. Remember, they gave this to the Environment Correspondent, so the piece finishes with this:

‘However, environmentalists have responded with dismay to the news that production in the area was the be stepped up. Gina Hanrahan, acting head of policy at WWF Scotland said: “Just weeks after it was reported 2017 was one of the hottest years on record, it seems perverse to be aiming to double production of North Sea oil. Instead we need to see a just transition that enables us to harness the engineering skills currently deployed in the North Sea and apply them to supporting a range of cleaner forms of energy production.”’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-42884861

I’m not unsympathetic to the Environmental position but this has been exploited here simply to weaken confidence in the Scottish economy post-independence.

Finally, what did Reporting Scotland have to say? I watched/skimmed RS for the first time in nearly a year and heard this from Jackie Bird:

‘The oil giant BP says it’s made two discoveries in the North Sea. Further appraisal work is underway following initial drilling at the Capercaillie field east of Aberdeen and the Achmelvich field west of Shetland. If viable, they’re expected to be connected to existing production platforms. BP’s managing director for the North Sea said: ‘the recent rises in the oil price haven’t had a bearing on investment decisions.’

I don’t feel well. Before I have a relapse, I’d better finish this off.

Reporting Scotland kept it late (sixth item) and short (less than one minute). What has been included, what has been excluded, the language and the shortness of the report have been well-chosen to make this seem like nothing much at all and certainly not something any wavering ‘No’ voter should take any note of.

https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/957593601155870720

The Nuffield Trust have released an update, on 28^th January, on the percentage of patients waiting more than four hours in A&E. The graph above looks frankly frightening with regard to the situation in Tory England, Labour Wales and DUP Northern Ireland. It’s clear that NHS Scotland has managed to stay very near the demanding 5% maximum target requiring more than 4 hours other than in the winters of 2012/13 and 2014/15.

During the period 2012 to mid-2015, NHS England’s A&E departments performed slightly better than those in Scotland. That might be expected given the greater severity of Scottish winters. However, since then, NHS England’s A&E departments have performed less-well and this winter have begun to soar away from the Scottish performance by more than 10%. This is, of course, the period of unconstrained Tory government in the UK. These figures only go so far as end December 2017 and given the apparent trend may have worsened in January 2018. There’s no sign of these even on 31^st January 2018. NHS Scotland’s figures for January have returned to 86% being treated within the 4 hours.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Emergency-Care/Publications/2018-01-30/2018-01-30-ED-Weekly-Summary.pdf?83671206236

I haven’t said much about Wales or Northern Ireland. The graph says it all.

Footnote: Does the Nuffield Trust have a political agenda? Why did they tweet this? If you look under the tweet, several respondents suggest we won’t see this graph on BBC Scotland news!

(c) datadeluge.com

This is a light-hearted (maybe?) piece based on my accidental stumbling across the concept of ‘Sturgeon’s Law’ which was developed by the Science Fiction writer, Theodore Sturgeon, in 1958. Here’s what he said:

‘I repeat Sturgeon’s Revelation, which was wrung out of me after twenty years of wearying defense of science fiction against attacks of people who used the worst examples of the field for ammunition, and whose conclusion was that ninety percent of SF is crud. Using the same standards that categorize 90% of science fiction as trash, crud, or crap, it can be argued that 90% of film, literature, consumer goods, etc. is crap. In other words, the claim (or fact) that 90% of science fiction is crap is ultimately uninformative, because science fiction conforms to the same trends of quality as all other artforms.’

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon%27s_law

As a youngster, in the PNE*, I read SF constantly and suffered from critics saying it was 100% crap. I knew much was but by no means all of it was. Unfortunately, I didn’t know of Sturgeon, in those days, but I like the notion that 90% of most things are crap or crud as he put it.

Now Sturgeon is quite an uncommon name, so it seems plausible that Theodore and Nicola are connected. That being the case, I think she should take over management of the theory and see whether it applies beyond art forms in the 21^st Century. As a first task she might try it out on the Scottish Tories.

Oh, no, I’ve tried it myself. It doesn’t apply. 100% of Scottish Tories are trash, crud, or crap. Well, one exception doesn’t spoil a theory. Let’s try it on Scottish Labour.

Oh shit, they’re 100% trash, crud, or crap too.

Hmm, it looks like I’m up a gumtree here. Before I give up totally, try a few yourself and let me know.

*Pre-Nicola Era

Footnote: I know, you’ve applied the law to my blog. I don’t want to know!

(c) thinkstock

Scotland is to be the first part of the UK with a statutory target for equal representation of women on public boards. As you know, the Scottish Cabinet already has such equality.

First on banning smoking in public places, first on minimum alcohol pricing, first on free-care for the disabled, first to have statutory targets for tackling poverty and homelessness, first to ban the use of wild animals in travelling circuses, first on baby boxes and free sanitary products, first to propose giving refugees the right to vote, first to ban the use of electric collars on dogs and now first to demand equal representation for women on public boards. Private boards will take a bit of doing.

From Insider magazine, yesterday:

‘New legislation aimed at ensuring women make up at least half the board members for all public authorities is expected to be win the support of MSPs. They are expected to pass legislation will make Scotland the only part of the UK with a statutory target for the proportion of women on public boards. It rules that females make up a minimum of 50% of non-executive members by 2022.The Gender Representation on Public Boards (Scotland) Bill would apply to colleges, universities and some public bodies including health boards, enterprise agencies, the Scottish Police Authority and the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service.’

 

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/scotland-become-only-part-uk-11937430

One more piece of evidence of enough of a difference in our predominant values, popular and governmental, to suggest that we don’t belong in any state dominated by conservative, archaic, values and currently governed by a Conservative Party full of openly misogynistic buffoons and women who have drawn the ladder up behind them?

The money will go directly to 2 387 schools based on the level of deprivation in their catchment area. Schools will then be free to use the money in the way they think best suited to help disadvantaged pupils close the attainment gap in literacy and numeracy.

I feel sure one reader (Alasdair?) will have good ideas on this. My own view is that, in the main, it should be used to reduce class sizes in these key areas and at key points such as S1 and S2 when, in particular, disaffected, adolescent males lose the most ground on their peers in more affluent areas.

Although we know of the above problem from statistics, other age groups in Scotland do not suffer from the massive attainments gaps found in England. We also know that teacher/pupil ratios in Scotland are more favourable than elsewhere in the UK.

The pupil/teacher ratio is only one of several factors likely to narrow attainment gaps, but it is an important one and one which governments can do something directly about. Once more, this suggests the SNP government in Scotland is making a difference, not seen under previous Labour/Lib Dem administrations and clearly not a high priority for the Tory one in Westminster. Notably, UK fee-paying schools use their ratio of 9 pupils per teacher as a marketing tool and say:

‘Significantly smaller class sizes are proven to improve academic achievement as the ability to spend more time with each child allows teachers to get to know their personal strengths, weaknesses and learning styles, ensuring that their individual needs are met.’

http://www.hmc.org.uk/about-hmc/why-choose-a-hmc-school/smaller-class-sizes/

See this for more:

SNP Government increases teacher numbers to create far superior pupil/teacher ratios and much smaller attainment gaps than in England

You may have read of criticisms suggesting that giving more power to head teachers and by implication taking it away from local councils might not be effective. For a rebuttal of this largely Labour and political attack on anything the SNP do, see:

In the Herald, SNP warned that giving more power to head-teachers in Sweden “led to declining standards” No it didn’t.

From a report in Insider yesterday, see these details:

‘Glasgow City Council, Scotland’s largest authority, will benefit from more than a sixth of the cash, receiving £21.8m to help fund improvements at 191 schools. The Education Secretary, John Swinney, announced the funding breakdown ahead of a visit to St Francis RC Primary School in Dundee, where staff used part of the cash they received in the first funding round to set up six week-long summer schools focused on boosting literacy, numeracy and well-being for pupils in the most deprived areas. Neil Lowden, the headteacher of St Francis RC Primary School, said the cash from the scheme “has had a significant impact on how I have managed my school in terms of the absolute focus on raising attainment in literacy and numeracy as well as improving outcomes in health and wellbeing for the children in St Francis”.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/schools-share-120m-close-attainment-11937777

Long experience in education has taught me to be wary of initiatives from politicians but this one does seem to leave the key decision-making where it should be, in the schools.

Based on the latest figures for 2016-17 published by Scottish Funding Council, Scotland’s Further Education college sector has delivered across a range of indicators which show that they are fulfilling their essential role in providing meaningful access to the disabled, those from the most derived areas, those from ethnic minorities, older students and those who are, or have been, care givers.

In 2016, the proportion of learning hours allocated to these groups increased to a record high.

In addition, these colleges continued to play a crucial role in providing access to Higher Education through their articulation agreements with universities and by so doing, considerably reducing the, often prohibitive, travel and accommodation costs for many local students. Around 30% of Scotland’s HE provision, for Year 1 and 2 students, takes place in local FE colleges.

Here are the statistics from the funding council report:

• In 2016-17 97.4% of learning hours were delivered on courses that led to a recognised qualification – an 8.7 percentage point increase since 2006-07.
• For those aged 25 and older, the number of funded full-time enrolments has increased by 41.9% (to 19,175), since 2006-07.
• 17.2% of all credits (a proxy for learning hours) were delivered to students from the 10% most deprived areas in 2016-17 – an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2015-16.
• 17.1% of all learning hours were delivered to students with a declared disability in 2016-17 – an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2015-16.
• The proportion of learning hours delivered to students from BME backgrounds is at its highest level ever – 6.4% in 2016-17.
• The proportion of credits delivered to students reporting a care-experienced background reached 1.6% in 2016-17, the highest on record.

https://news.gov.scot/news/quality-and-equality-improve-in-colleges

I’m not sure how these data fit in with the opposition wails that the FE sector was being damaged by the SNP.