In a poll of 15 321 carried out by YouGov for the charity Hope Not Hate, with fieldwork between 26th April and 1st May 2019, but reported in July 2019, the Scottish Tories and Labour are completely wiped out with the SNP taking 55 seats and SLIBDEM taking 4.
Looking at the above table, a pro-remain Lib-Lab pact seems the most likely outcome with the LibDems requiring Labour to deny a second independence referendum at the same time as insisting on a second EU referendum.
Click to access fear-and-hope-report-2019-07-final-1.pdf
The timing of the fieldwork means this probably over-states the current level of support for Brexit party.
Hi John – The Hope Not Hate large-scale opinion poll does, indeed, look most encouraging for Scotland in terms of SNP winning big – and the Scottish electorate taking the opportunity to remove the remaining vestiges of red and blue tories (with libbydem variety of torydom also seriously wounded).
Seems to be no Green cut-through happening in England – projected only to hold the current single seat.
Good to see Plaid projected to make a gain to 5 Westminster seats.
Welsh Sion over at Wings has alerted re. a recent development in Welsh local authorities passing motions in favour of Wales Indy that I hadn’t been aware of: Link and snippets below:
Caerphilly Town Council has unanimously voted to support YesCymru’s campaign for Welsh Independence at its meeting today.
The town council is the first in the south of Wales to support taking full control back from Westminster to Wales.
The full motion read: “To propose that Caerphilly Town Council notes the recent surge of support for an Independent Wales, including the march for independence in Cardiff on May 11, 2019, which drew a crowd of thousands.
“We note also that other town and community councils in Wales have made similar statements.
“Propose that this council supports the campaign for Welsh Independence and the benefits it could bring to local communities in Wales.”
The motion was proposed by Plaid town councillor Jeff Grenfell.
Machynlleth was the first Council to vote for independence, followed by Porthmadog, Blaenau Ffestiniog, Nefyn, Bethesda, Caernarfon, Llanuwchllyn, Trawsfynydd, Llanystumdwy, Pwllheli, Bontnewydd, Llanberis, Waunfawr and Caeathro, and the Llanllyfni.
Are the brexit stress and strain cracks spreading wider and deeper than even the Westminster/Whitehall elites are fearing?
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Unless either the LD or Labour picks up quite a few more seats than in that poll, a Labour/LD coalition would not work though. Yes, the Brexit party will probably lose some of the seats that poll shows, but they won’t go to those parties, so I question your conclusion about those parties forming a coalition. However, the SNP won’t have enough seats to quite put Labour over the top either though it will be closer than LD. That looks like a more likely coalition to me if Labour can pick up a few more seats. Not having any Labour MPs in Westminster would remove one barrier.
Apparently Guernsey (+ Alderney and Sark) has applied to extend its nautical boundaries to the 12 nautical mile limit (rather than the current 3 nautical miles) next week. The ramifications of Brexit continue to come to light bit by bit. Wonder what Bertie A will have to say about it? – Amazing what these micro-jurisdictions can do to try and protect their interests. Funny how, according to Bertie and the Better Together crew, an Indy Scotland was going to be too wee, too poor etc to organise her own interests in her own territorial waters. Link and snippet below:
The Bailiwick of Guernsey’s territorial seas are set to quadruple in size.
It comes after Guernsey, Alderney and Sark applied for an extension from three nautical miles to 12.
It means the three islands will now have more rights and control over larger area of the sea and it will bring them in-line with international norms that are enjoyed by the UK, Jersey and the Isle of Man.
It will come into force on 23 July.
The new limit of 12nm is the maximum extent permissible under international law of the sea.
In a joint statement from all three jurisdictions, they say the extension will ensure clarity about the status of the waters adjacent to the Bailiwick, especially with the UK planning to leave the EU in October.