One thing is certain in the polls – SNP support at 45-46%

The last four sub-polls have been notable for a lack of clarity in the level of support for the Scottish Conservative and Labour branches, with figures as far a part as 7 and 28% in the case of the former and 9 and 20% for the latter but support for the SNP has been rock solid at either 45 or 46%. This is remarkably consistent given the nature of polling and these quite small samples.

A small Survation sub-poll of 76 on 10th and 11th July gave:

  • Con      7%
  • Lab      20%
  • Lib       13%
  • Brexit  12%
  • SNP     46%
  • Green  1%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

A more useful YouGov poll on 9th and 10th July with 144 Scots, gives:

  • Con      20%
  • Lab      13%
  • Lib       10%
  • Brexit  9%
  • SNP     45%
  • Green  2%

Click to access TheTimes_190710_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

YouGov based on 138 adults with fieldwork on 2nd and 3rd July:

  • Con 15%
  • Lab 10%
  • Lib 11%
  • SNP 45%
  • Brexit 10%
  • Green 8%

Click to access TheTimes_190703_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

Finally, in the Ipsos-MORI sub-poll of 133 adults, on 21st to 25th June 2019:

  • Con 28%
  • Lab 9%
  • Lib 14%
  • SNP 46%
  • Green 2%
  • Brexit 1%
  • Not 5%

Click to access pm_-_tables_-_270619.pdf

You don’t need me to tell you what 45 to 46% means in terms of wiping out the opposition in all but a handful of Lib Dem redoubts.

7 thoughts on “One thing is certain in the polls – SNP support at 45-46%

  1. gavin July 13, 2019 / 1:26 pm

    And Kevin McKenna outs himself as a “false flag” merchant in todays “non-partisan” Herod, using the SNP voting to expand liberal social rights in N Ireland as an excuse to condemn “interference” in another jurisdiction. As if the people in N Ireland were somehow still to be kept in the maw, by the good graces of the DUP, of Catholic and Wee Free social fascism.
    Both him and Neil MacKay claim, somehow, to be YES voters, yet they consistently use their vituperative press articles to attack ONLY the SNP, not British Nationalist parties.

    I would expect at indyref2, they will announce to the world that they can no longer support independence for Scotland—“sadly, with a heavy heart”—(mince and flowers bullshit)—-“Scotland must continue as an English colony, because Sturgeon/Salmond/Blackford once clapped next doors dug”.

    And it upset their wee, smug, 1950’s moral sensibilities.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Brian Powell July 13, 2019 / 5:00 pm

    The LibDem redoubts are people still pretending to themselves they are not just Tories with no particular polices.
    A foodbank in one particularly town in a LibDem stronghold has volunteers and contributors who are of an age who watched their Party in coalition with the Tories and still voted LibDem. Their candidate was overheard saying to Tory candidate, ‘we have to get rid of these SNP bastards’.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Terry csllachan July 14, 2019 / 7:52 am

    There is still a majority in the polls for NO to Scottish independence, all these people are doing is shuffling about looking for something that isn’t there, a reliable and honourable political party that supports British nationalism and so having lost faith in labour and the tories they have shifted to the Lib Dem’s and the brexit party both of whom are equally unreliable and dishonourable.
    The solid vote for Scottish independence remains with SNP.
    I fear that the only thing that will divert some of the NO to Scottish independence people towards SNP is if brexit goes ahead.
    My great fear now is that brexit doesn’t happen and the masses in Scotland go back to where they were ten years ago voting labour and Tory.

    Like

  4. Dr Jim July 14, 2019 / 11:19 am

    But, but does 20% for the Tories not mean they’ve won, is that not how it works in Scotland now

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Alex Montrose July 15, 2019 / 11:53 am

    I despair, illegal acts of war, ongoing austerity, incompetent politicians heading for No 10 determined on a no deal Brexit, privitising the NHS around the corner, and the SNP are at 45% in the polls, wake up folks ffs.

    Liked by 1 person

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